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Despite growing milk demand and imports, market-oriented milk production and formal processing in Ethiopia is limited to areas around Addis Ababa, notwithstanding its competing land use demand. This study assessed biophysical and market potential for developing the dairy sector, characterizing Ethiopian dairy clusters. Biophysical data from geographic information system (GIS) sources and information from key informants were combined in mapping and ranking these clusters on milk production potential. Twenty-four indicators in six major categories were applied for this assessment: feed availability, environmental conditions for dairy cattle, current production status, access to inputs and services, output market access, and production expansion potential. Feed availability (fodder, crop residues, and agro-industrial by-products as well as land availability and affordability) were the main drivers for dairy development, followed by the current production status, mainly driven by number of (improved) dairy cattle and (formal) milk volumes. Dairy clusters close to Addis Ababa had the highest overall scores for development potential, mainly determined by local demand and access to inputs. For dairy sustainable dairy development in Ethiopia, companies seeking longterm opportunities may avoid the Addis Ababa area and develop dairy production and processing in other clusters especially in Amhara and Tigray regions, with good milk production potential but less developed market infrastructure. The combination of biophysical data and key informant knowledge offered key strengths in delivering valuable results within a short time span. It however requires a careful selection of knowledgeable key informants whose expertise cover a broad scope of the dairy value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change is characterized by a high diversity of change trajectories depending on the local conditions, regional context and external influences. Policy intervention aims to counteract the negative consequences of these changes and provide incentives for positive developments. Region typologies are a common tool to cluster regions with similar characteristics and possibly similar policy needs. This paper provides a typology of land use change in Europe at a high spatial resolution based on a series of different scenarios of land use change for the period 2000-2030. A series of simulation models ranging from the global to the landscape level are used to translate scenario conditions in terms of demographic, economic and policy change into changes in European land use pattern. A typology developed based on these simulation results identifies the main trajectories of change across Europe: agricultural abandonment, agricultural expansion and urbanization. The results are combined with common typologies of landscape and rurality. The findings indicate that the typologies based on current landscape and ruralities are poor indicators of the land use dynamics simulated for the regions. It is advocated that typologies based on (simulated) future dynamics of land change are more appropriate to identify regions with potentially similar policy needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]