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Experimental seasonal forecasts using the INM-CM5 climate model have been applied as the input data for the temperature–time phenological model of birch pollination. A test method has been developed within the framework of the joint model for the seasonal forecasting of the time of the beginning of birch pollen dispersion in the European territory of Russia. Verification of this method on seasonal retrospective forecasts of the INM-CM5 model (in 1991–2019) has shown an adequate reproduction of the days of the beginning of birch pollen season simulated for the same period based on ERA5 reanalysis. The mean systematic errors are ±2 days, and the spatial correlation coefficients exceed +0.84. The forecasts of the date of pollen dispersion beginning in 2022 simulated from the experimental operational seasonal forecasts using the INM-CM5 model with a monthly lead time and with a zero lead time are also evaluated. It is shown that the errors in forecasting the onset of pollen dispersion are ±5–10 days, with smaller errors of forecasts with a 1-month lead time. The results allow us to conclude that the seasonal forecast of the surface temperature based on the INM-CM5 model can be used as input information for the temperature–time phenological model for the operational forecast of the start time of birch pollen dispersion in the European territory of Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spring indices, models that represent the onset of spring season biological activity, were developed using a long-term observational record from the mid-to-late twentieth century of three species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers across the nation. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) produces and freely delivers maps of spring index onset dates at fine spatial scale for the USA. These maps are used widely in natural resource planning and management applications. The extent to which the models represent activity in a broad suite of plant species is not well documented. In this study, we used a rich record of observational plant phenology data (37,819 onset records) collected in recent years (1981–2017) to evaluate how well gridded maps of the spring index models predict leaf and flowering onset dates in (a) 19 species of ecologically important, broadly distributed deciduous trees and shrubs, and (b) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models. The extent to which the spring indices predicted vegetative and reproductive phenology varied by species and with latitude, with stronger relationships revealed for shrubs than trees and with the Bloom Index compared to the Leaf Index, and reduced concordance between the indices at higher latitudes. These results allow us to use the indices as indicators of when to expect activity across widely distributed species and can serve as a yardstick to assess how future changes in the timing of spring will impact a broad array of trees and shrubs across the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although it is well-known and established that light plays important roles in plant development, up to now, there is no substantial improvements in how to deal with the light factor of spring phenology under natural condition. By monitoring the local meteorologic data and mature dates of two types (male and female) of flower from four pecan cultivars during 9 years, it was found that the complementary pattern of growing degree day and sunshine duration helped to maintain a threshold of driving force related to the maturity of pecan flower during 9 years. A novel photothermal time model based on the linear combination of growing degree day and sunshine duration was then proposed and validated to interpret the variance of mature dates of pecan cultivars. Comparative analysis showed that the new model had made extremely significant improvements to the traditional thermal time model. In addition, this model introduced the conversion coefficient K, which quantified the effect of light on the flowering drive, and revealed the differences of base temperature among cultivars. This was the first time that sunshine duration instead of photoperiod was adopted to develop into a verified model on spring phenological event of tree species. It will help to model the spring phenologies of other tree species more reasonably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological modeling is not only important for the projection of future changes of certain phenophases but also crucial for systematically studying the spatiotemporal patterns of plant phenology. Based on ground phenological observations, we used two existing tem-perature-based models and 12 modified models with consideration of precipitation or soil moisture to simulate the bud-burst date (BBD) of four common herbaceous plants—Xanthium sibiricum, Plantago asiatica, Iris lactea and Taraxacum mongolicum—in temperate grasslands in Inner Mongolia. The results showed that (1) increase in temperature promoted the BBD of all species. However, effects of precipitation and soil moisture on BBD varied among species. (2) The modified models predicted the BBD of herbaceous plants with R2 ranging from 0.17 to 0.41 and RMSE ranging from 9.03 to 11.97 days, better than classical thermal models. (3) The spatiotemporal pattern of BBD during 1980–2015 showed that species with later BBD, e.g. X. sibiricum (mean: day of year 135.30) exhibited an evidently larger spatial difference in BBD (standard deviation: 13.88 days) than the other species. Our findings suggest that influences of temperature and water conditions need to be considered simultaneously in predicting the phenological response of herbaceous plants to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing evidence demonstrates that the first flowering date (FFD) of most plant species became earlier in response to temperature increase over the past several decades. However, the studies on changes in flowering duration (FD) were limited. By using the non-parametric Theil–Sen estimator, this study investigated the temporal trends in 127 time series of FFD, end of flowering date (EFD), and FD of 97 woody plants from 1963 to 2014 at three sites (Harbin, Beijing, and Xi'an) in North China. The relationship between flowering phenophases and temperature was analyzed using two phenological models. The results showed that most of FFD and EFD time series exhibited an apparent advancing trend. Among them, trends of 52.0% (40.9%) of FFD (EFD) time series were significant (P < 0.05). FFD and EFD time series (95.3 and 89.8%, respectively) responded negatively and significantly to preseason temperature (P < 0.05). The direction of FD changes varied among sites and species. On average, a shortening trend of FD was observed at Harbin (−0.51 days decade−1), with 7.5% of species significantly. However, FD on average extended by 0.42 and 0.93 days decade−1 at Beijing (24.5% significantly) and Xi'an (28.9% significantly), respectively. The regression models could simulate the interannual changes in FFD and EFD with the mean goodness of fit (R2) ranging from 0.37 to 0.67, but fail to simulate the changes in FD accurately (R2 ranging from 0.09 to 0.18). The growing degree day model could improve the R2 for simulating FFD and EFD except for FD. Therefore, more phenological models need to be tested, and more drivers of FD need to be further investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accuracy of the operational models can be improved by using observational data to shift the model state in a process called data assimilation. Here, a data assimilation approach using the temperature similarity to control the extent of extrapolation of point-like phenological observations is explored. A degree-day model is used to describe the spring phenology of the bird cherry Padus racemosa in the Baltic region in 2014. The model results are compared to phenological observations that are expressed on a continuous scale based on the BBCH code. The air temperature data are derived from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. It is assumed that the phenology at two points with a similar temperature pattern should be similar. The root mean squared difference (RMSD) between the time series of hourly temperature data over a selected time interval are used to measure the temperature similarity of any two points. A sigmoidal function is used to scale the RMSD into a weight factor that determines how the modelled and observed phenophases are combined in the data assimilation. The parameter space for determining the weight of observations is explored. It is found that data assimilation improved the accuracy of the phenological model and that the value of the point-like observations can be increased through using a weighting function based on environmental parameters, such as temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Postbloom fruit drop (PFD) causes lesions on the petals of citrus flowers and induces fruit abscission causing severe damage to production when the flowering period coincides with intense rainfall. The aims of this study were to develop a phenological-climatological model for citrus PFD occurrence and, together with weather data series from several locations, to determine and map the agro-climatic favorability of PFD occurrence in the state of São Paulo, Southern Brazil. A phenological flowering model was developed to identify when citrus flowering occurs. The flowering starts after when a temperature below 10 °C in the months of June or July is reached followed by cumulative rainfall within 5 days of at least 20 mm, and then 96 °C days. Between the beginning of flowering and its peak, 147 °C days are required, and between the peak and its end, approximately 229 °C days, being 206 °C days from the peak to the moment when flowers remaining are about 50 % of total. The relationship between PFD incidence and accumulated rainfall during the critical period (between flowering peak and 50 % of flowers remaining) was adjusted by the Gompertz model ( R = 0.99, p < 0.05). After its validation, this model was used to estimate PFD incidence for 29 locations in the state, from 1993 to 2013, which allowed to map the PFD climatic favorability for the state through a Geographical Information System using linear models based on latitude, longitude, and altitude. The obtained map showed a trend of PFD incidence increasing from the northwest of the state of São Paulo towards the south and the coastal region, with medium to very high favorability in the center of the state. The results of this study can be used by growers as a guide for disease control planning as well as for defining the regions where the climatic conditions are likely to escape this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioclimatics is an ancient science that was once neglected by many ecologists. However, as climate changes have attracted increasing attention, scientists have reevaluated the relevance of bioclimatology and it has thus become essential for exploring climate changes. Because of the rapidly growing importance of bioclimatic models in climate change studies, we evaluated factors that influence plant bioclimatology, constructed and developed bioclimatic models, and assessed the precautionary effects of the application of the models. The findings obtained by sequentially reviewing the development history and importance of bioclimatic models in climate change studies can be used to enhance the knowledge of bioclimatic models and strengthen their ability to apply them. Consequently, bioclimatic models can be used as a powerful tool and reference in decision-making responses to future climate changes. The objectives of this study were to (1) understand how climatic factors affect plants; (2) describe the sources, construction principles, and development of early plant bioclimatic models (PBMs); and (3) summarize the recent applications of PBMs in climate change research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on phenological and economic output models established and meteorological data from 1972 to 2013, changes in the phenology, frost risk, and economic output of the Longjing-43 tea tree in the Yuezhou Longjing tea production area of China were evaluated. As the local climate has changed, the beginning dates of tea bud and leaf plucking of this cultivar in all five counties studied has advanced significantly by −1.28 to −0.88 days/decade, with no significant change in the risk of frost. The main tea-producing stages in the tea production cycle include the plucking periods for superfine, grade 1, and grade 2 buds and leaves. Among the five bud and leaf grades, the economic output of the plucking periods for superfine and grade 1 decreased significantly, that for grade 2 showed no significant change, and those for grades 3 and 4 increased significantly. The economic output of large-area tea plantations employing an average of 45 workers per hectare and producing superfine to grade 2 buds and leaves were significantly reduced by 6,745-8,829 yuan/decade/ha, depending on the county. Those tea farmers who planted tea trees on their own small land holdings and produced superfine to grade 4 tea buds and leaves themselves experienced no significant decline in economic output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can modify the development of insect pests and their impact on crops. The study of future impacts on maize remains relatively unexplored. Here we modeled the distribution and development of the maize borer Sesamia nonagrioides Lef. in Europe using a 25 × 25 km grid. We studied the pest potential winter survival, distribution, and phenological development at three time horizons, 2000, 2030, and 2050, using the A1B scenario of the international panel on climate change (IPCC). A new model based on the lethal dose exposure concept was developed to simulate winter survival. Two approaches for the simulation of winter survival were compared: the first using air temperature only as weather input, named AirMS; the second taking into account the fraction of larvae overwintering in the soil, therefore considering also soil temperature, named SoilAirMS. The survival model was linked to a phenological model to simulate the potential development. Results show that soil temperature is an essential input for correctly simulating S. nonagrioides distribution. The SoilAirMS approach showed the best agreement (+537 grid cells), compared to the AirMS approach (−2,039 grid cells). Nevertheless, the AirMS approach allowed identifying areas where the agronomic practice suggested for controlling S. nonagrioides should be considered ineffective. This practice consists in uprooting and exposing the stubble on the soils surface for exposing larvae to winter cold. The projections to 2030 and 2050 suggested an overall slight increase of more suitable conditions for the S. nonagrioides in almost all the areas where it develops under the baseline. In these areas, S. nonagrioides could become a new insect pest with a potential strong impact on maize. This is the first attempt to provide extensive estimates on the effects of climate change on S. nonagrioides distribution, development, and on possible management changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We selected widely distributed and well observed plant species Fraxinus chinensis to study the formation mechanism of geographical distribution of the plant phenophase changes and revealed their spatiotemporal dynamics in China. Based on the first leaf date (FLD) data at 12 sites derived from Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and related meteorological data, we developed and validated the process-based model of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis. After reconstructing data series of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis over the study area from 1952 to 2007, we analyzed different spatiotemporal patterns of phenophase changes of this species. The results suggested that the process-based model was able to simulate the FLD accurately for Fraxinus chinensis on large spatial and temporal scales, because of the consideration of different budding rate responded to the air temperatures during the dormancy and the quiescence in accordance with the physiological mechanism of plants. The geographical distribution of the spring phenology in temperate regions was determined by the spatial pattern of daily average air temperature. The changes of FLD for Fraxinus chinensis revealed significant phenological advances in most areas. However, it showed delayed trends in a few sites. The overall average change trend was −1.1 days/decade. This result was consistent with the advanced trend in other regions of the North Hemisphere. The changes of FLD showed a noticeable regional variation with clearer advance in the north than in the south. The FLD in northern China showed an average advance as high as −2.0 days/decade ( P<0.01). And the advance in northeastern and northwestern China was respectively −1.5 and −1.4 days/decade ( P<0.01). Furthermore, eastern and central regions showed a minor trend, which was −1.0 days/decade ( P<0.05). The smallest and non-significant advance appeared in southwestern and southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this study was to develop feasible, easy to apply models for early prediction of full flowering (FF) and maturing (MA) in apricot ( Prunus armeniaca L.). Phenological data for 20 apricot cultivars grown in the Belgrade region were modeled against averages of daily temperature records over ten seasons for FF and eight seasons for MA. A much stronger correlation was found between the phenological timing and temperature at the very beginning than at the end of phenophases. Also, the length of developmental periods were better correlated to daily maximum than to daily minimum and mean air temperatures. Using prediction models based on daily maximum temperatures averaged over 30-, 45- and 60-day periods, starting from 1 January for FF prediction and from the date of FF for MA prediction, the onset of examined phenophases in apricot cultivars could be predicted from a few weeks to up to 2 months ahead with acceptable accuracy. The mean absolute differences between the observations and cross-validated predictions obtained by 30-, 45- and 60-day models were 8.6, 6.9 and 5.7 days for FF and 6.1, 3.6 and 2.8 days for MA, respectively. The validity of the results was confirmed using an independent data set for the year 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European corn borer (ECB), Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), is the major pest of corn ( Zea mays L.) in Israel. We investigated the temporal patterns of pupation and emergence of various overwintering ECB populations in Israel during 1992-94. The association between Julian date (JD) or cumulative degree-days (DD) and the rates of either pupation or emergence was studied using simple linear regression models. Differences between populations in JDs required to reach 50% pupation amounted to 5%, whereas for DD differences amounted to 26%. Similarly, at 50% emergence, differences between populations were up to 3% for JD and to 12% for DD. Two different forecasting models are proposed for either pupation or emergence. Based on these models, both pupation and emergence develop over a period of 4 to 5 weeks, and they are expected to occur between the following JDs: onset of pupation, 66-70 (March 7-11); 50% pupation, 96-102 (April 6-12); onset of emergence, 85-94 (March 26-April 4); and 50% emergence, 115-121 (April 25-May 1). Pupal development required 160 DD (confidence interval [C.I.] 141-179 DD) and it is expected to take ca 16 days (C.I. 14-18 days). The simple linear regression models obtained in this study are suggested as preliminary phenological models for the temporal prediction of postdiapause pupation and emergence of ECB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]