1. Use of multiple climate change scenarios to predict future distributions of alligator gar (Atractosteus spatula) in the United States.
- Author
-
Bartnicki, Jory, Snow, Richard A., Taylor, Andrew T., and Butler, Christopher J.
- Abstract
Climate change is expected to cause the extinction of vulnerable species and reduce available habitat for others. Freshwater fishes are particularly vulnerable considering they are confined to habitats that are disjunct or prone to fragmentation on the landscape. The alligator gar (Atractosteus spatula) is a species that relies on specific habitat conditions, including water temperature ranges from 20 to 30 °C and flooded vegetation, for successful spawning and recruitment and is likely to be impacted by changes in climate. We created a species distribution model to provide insight about the projected range for alligator gar in the USA under four different climate change outcomes. Our models suggest that the most suitable habitat will change from where alligator gar currently dwell and shift northward and slightly east by 2080. Under the most severe climate scenario, the centroid for the alligator gar range is projected to shift to the north-northeast, nearly 900 km from the current location in central Louisiana, to south-central Illinois. Freshwater fish have limited dispersal capabilities, and alligator gar will likely be unable to populate newly suitable habitats without translocations by fishery managers. Suitable habitat is projected to decline across alligator gar's current range, and it is plausible that extirpation will occur regionally. However, the initial impacts of decreasing suitability may be overlooked, considering that alligator gar are a long-lived species and larger, more mature individuals will likely persist through the end of their life span across the current range even as suitable habitat decreases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF