Search

Previous research has explored the impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) variability. However, a notable gap remains in our comprehension concerning the response of Antarctic SAT to the four phase combinations of IPO and AMO. In this study, we unveil unique patterns of Antarctic SAT anomalies during four distinct sub-periods based on the phases of IPO and AMO. Notably, Antarctic SAT anomalies exhibit a considerable seasonality, with the most pronounced (weakest) anomalies occurring during the austral winter (summer), a phenomenon consistent across all four sub-periods. These different anomalous SST patterns trigger varying convective rainfall patterns, consequently initiating distinct wavetrains that propagate into the Southern Ocean. These different wavetrains, in turn, induce variations in sea level pressure and surface wind fields, resulting in different Antarctic SAT anomalies primarily through mechanisms related to horizontal thermal advection and downward longwave radiation. Plain language summary: Understanding the variability in Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) is crucial for unraveling the complex dynamics of the polar climate system and its broader implications for global climate patterns. Fewer studies highlighted the impacts of the four combinations of the phases of IPO and AMO on Antarctic SAT anomalies. In this study, we uncover distinct patterns of Antarctic SAT anomalies during four different periods based on the phases of IPO and AMO. We note that Antarctic SAT anomalies exhibit a considerable seasonality, with the most pronounced (weakest) anomalies occurring during the austral winter (summer), consistently across all four periods. The anomalous SST patterns during different periods trigger distinct wavetrains that propagate into the Southern Ocean, inducing variations in sea level pressure, surface wind fields, and Antarctic SAT anomalies. These findings bear substantial implications for the prediction of Antarctic seasonal SAT variations on interdecadal timescales. Key points: Antarctic SAT anomalies exhibit a considerable seasonality during the four combinations of the phases of the IPO and AMO. These different SST anomalies during the combinations trigger distinct wavetrains that propagate into the Southern Ocean. Different wavetrains induce anomalous sea level pressure and surface wind fields and Antarctic SAT through thermal advection and radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic sea ice extent, though varying considerably with season and region, had been on a slight increasing trend from late 1970s until mid-2010s when the trend was suddenly reversed. The sea surface temperature anomalies related to the multi-decadal expansion and recent contraction in the Antarctic sea ice extent remain to be uncovered. Here, we demonstrate that the variations in the Antarctic sea ice extent from 1979 through 2020, including the abrupt change in direction that occurred in mid-2010's, can be explained at least partially by the sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Specifically, we show that the changes in the Antarctic sea ice extent are significantly correlated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in all seasons and to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in austral winter and spring. We further demonstrate that SST anomalies trigger planetary wavetrains of different magnitudes and propagating paths depending on seasons. These planetary wavetrains induce anomalous atmospheric circulations over the Southern Ocean that, through transport and melting/freezing, ultimately change sea ice extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in influencing zonally asymmetric changes in Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) has been established. However, previous studies have primarily concentrated on examining the combined impact of the contrasting phases of the AMO and IPO, which have been dominant since the advent of satellite observations in 1979. This study utilizes long-term reanalysis data to investigate the impact of four combinations of +AMO+IPO, −AMO−IPO, +AMO−IPO, and −AMO+IPO on Antarctic SAT over the past 115 years. The +AMO phase is characterized by a spatial mean temperature amplitude of up to 0.5°C over the North Atlantic Ocean, accompanied by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the extratropical-mid-latitude western Pacific, which are indicative of the +IPO phase. The Antarctic SAT exhibits contrasting spatial patterns during the +AMO+IPO and +AMO−IPO periods. However, during the −AMO+IPO period, apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and the vicinity of the Weddell Sea, the entire Antarctic region experiences a warming trend. The most pronounced signal in the SAT anomalies is observed during the austral autumn, whereas the combination of −AMO and −IPO exhibits the smallest magnitude across all the combinations. The wavetrain excited by the SST anomalies associated with the AMO and IPO induces upper-level and surface atmospheric circulation anomalies, which alter the SAT anomalies. Furthermore, downward longwave radiation anomalies related to anomalous cloud cover play a crucial role. In the future, if the phases of AMO and IPO were to reverse (AMO transitioning to a negative phase and IPO transitioning to a positive phase), Antarctica could potentially face more pronounced warming and accelerated melting compared to the current observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Composite analyses were performed in this study to reveal the difference in spring precipitation over southern China during multiyear La Niña events during 1901 to 2015. It was found that there is significantly below-normal precipitation during the first boreal spring, but above-normal precipitation during the second year. The difference in spring precipitation over southern China is correlative to the variation in western North Pacific anomalous cyclone (WNPC), which can in turn be attributed to the different sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the Tropical Pacific. The remote forcing of negative SSTA in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and the local air-sea interaction in the western North Pacific are the usual causes of WNPC formation and maintenance. SSTA in the first spring is stronger than those in the second spring. As a result, the intensity of WNPC in the first year is stronger, which is more likely to reduce the moisture in southern China by changing the moisture transport, leading to prolonged precipitation deficits over southern China. However, the tropical SSTA signals in the second year are too weak to induce the formation and maintenance of WNPC and the below-normal precipitation over southern China. Thus, the variation in tropical SSTA signals between two consecutive springs during multiyear La Niña events leads to obvious differences in the spatial pattern of precipitation anomaly in southern China by causing the different WNPC response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region was detected during the 1960–2021 period. Shallowing trends stopped in mid-1980s, followed by a period of weak trends. The MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage, the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land, and the central parts of the South Indian sector. The newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian sector. The saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air temperature is a key index reflecting climate change. Air temperature extremes are very important because they strongly influence the natural environment and societal activities. The Arctic air temperature extremes north of 60°N are investigated in the winter. Daily data from 238 stations at north of 60°N from the global summary of the day for the period 1979-2015 are used to study the trends of cold days, cold nights, warm days and warm nights during the wintertime. The results show a decreasing trend of cold days and nights (rate of-0.2 to-0.3 d/a) and an increasing trend of warm days and nights (rate of +0.2 to +0.3 d/a) in the Arctic. The mean temperature increases, which contributes to the increasing (decreasing) occurrence of warm (cold) days and nights. On the other hand, the variance at most stations decreased, leading to a reduced number of cold events. A positive AO (Arctic Oscillation) index leads to an increased (decreased) number of warm (cold) days and nights over northern Europe and western Russia and an increased (decreased) number of cold (warm) days and nights over the Bering Strait and Greenland. The lower extent of Arctic autumn sea ice leads to a decreased number of cold days and nights. The occurrences of abrupt changes are detected using the Mann-Kendall method for cold nights occurring in Canada in 1998 and for warm nights occurring in northwestern Eurasia in 1988. This abrupt change mainly resulted from the mean warming induced by south winds and an increased North Atlantic sea surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent decline in the Arctic sea ice has coincided with more cold winters in Eurasia. It has been hypothesized that the Arctic sea ice loss is causing more mid-latitude cold extremes and cold winters, yet there is lack of consensus in modeling studies on the impact of Arctic sea ice loss. Here we conducted modeling experiments with Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) to investigate the sensitivity and linearity of Eurasian winter temperature response to the Atlantic sector and Pacific sector of the Arctic sea ice loss. Our experiments indicate that the Arctic sea ice reduction can significantly affect the atmospheric circulation by strengthening the Siberian High, exciting the stationary Rossby wave train, and weakening the polar jet stream, which in turn induce the cooling in Eurasia. The temperature decreases by more than 1°C in response to the ice loss in the Atlantic sector and the cooling is less and more shifts southward in response to the ice loss in the Pacific sector. More interestingly, sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors together barely induces cold temperatures in Eurasia, suggesting the nonlinearity of the atmospheric response to the Arctic sea ice loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China (NMEFC), and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS) is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializations: (1) the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E). Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmospheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]