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During the last few years the Sun and solar wind have shown a behavior that was so unexpected that the phenomena was described as 'the strange solar minimum'. It has been speculated that the 23/24 solar cycle minimum may have indicated the onset of a Maunder-Minimum-type Grand Minimum. Here we review what is known from 1500 years of proxy data about Maunder-type Grand Minima and the minima of the cyclic Centennial Gleissberg variations. We generate criteria that distinguish between the two types of event. Applying these criteria to the observed solar terrestrial data we conclude that the unexpected behavior began well before the solar cycle 23/24 minimum. The data do not support the Maunder Minimum conjecture. However, the behavior can be understood as a minimum of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle that previously minimized in the beginning of the 20th century. We conclude that the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle is a persistent variation that has been present 80% of the time during the last 1500 years and should be explained by solar dynamo theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

data adaptive method called ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is used to examine the 154-year record of monthly sea level at San Francisco. The mode that is lowest in frequency corresponds to the long-term trend. The next highest mode corresponds to an oscillation with a period of ~100 years and may be related to solar variability. When this mode is combined with the long-term trend, the rate of increase in sea level starts to decrease by ~1980. The next lower mode corresponds to interdecadal time scales and thus includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When combined with the two lower modes, sea level itself starts to decrease by the mid-1990s. These results are consistent with the most recent results from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), and may be the first obtained from a tidal record. Prior to conducting EEMD, corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and the inverse barometer (IB) effect were applied. The effect of applying the GIA correction was relatively small, but the IB correction reduced the slope of the long-term trend in sea level by almost 15%. This reduction is due to a long-term increase in the variance of sea level pressure. To determine if the 10-15 year ENSO modulation cycle could be detected from the decomposition we first compared the envelope from the mode associated with ENSO, with the two adjacent modes that were lower in frequency. Spectral analysis revealed no significant maxima in the ENSO mode envelope, but a major peak in the spectrum for the two adjacent modes, with a period of 12.8 years. This is consistent with a local response to El Niño warming for the ENSO mode, but a non-local response for the two adjacent modes. A similar analysis was performed for the Southern Oscillation Index and a spectral maximum was found between 12 and 16 years, consistent with our non-local interpretation of the previous two modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The DynaMICCS mission is designed to probe and understand the dynamics of crucial regions of the Sun that determine solar variability, including the previously unexplored inner core, the radiative/convective zone interface layers, the photosphere/chromosphere layers and the low corona. The mission delivers data and knowledge that no other known mission provides for understanding space weather and space climate and for advancing stellar physics (internal dynamics) and fundamental physics (neutrino properties, atomic physics, gravitational moments...). The science objectives are achieved using Doppler and magnetic measurements of the solar surface, helioseismic and coronographic measurements, solar irradiance at different wavelengths and in-situ measurements of plasma/energetic particles/magnetic fields. The DynaMICCS payload uses an original concept studied by Thalès Alenia Space in the framework of the CNES call for formation flying missions: an external occultation of the solar light is obtained by putting an occulter spacecraft 150 m (or more) in front of a second spacecraft. The occulter spacecraft, a LEO platform of the mini sat class, e.g. PROTEUS, type carries the helioseismic and irradiance instruments and the formation flying technologies. The latter spacecraft of the same type carries a visible and infrared coronagraph for a unique observation of the solar corona and instrumentation for the study of the solar wind and imagers. This mission must guarantee long (one 11-year solar cycle) and continuous observations (duty cycle > 94%) of signals that can be very weak (the gravity mode detection supposes the measurement of velocity smaller than 1 mm/s). This assumes no interruption in observation and very stable thermal conditions. The preferred orbit therefore is the L1 orbit, which fits these requirements very well and is also an attractive environment for the spacecraft due to its low radiation and low perturbation (solar pressure) environment. This mission is secured by instrumental R and D activities during the present and coming years. Some prototypes of different instruments are already built (GOLFNG, SDM) and the performances will be checked before launch on the ground or in space through planned missions of CNES and PROBA ESA missions (PICARD, LYRA, maybe ASPIICS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutual quasi-periodicities near the solar-rotation period appear in time series based on the Earth’s magnetic field, the interplanetary magnetic field, and signed solar-magnetic fields. Dominant among these is one at 27.03±0.02 days that has been highlighted by Neugebauer et al. ( J. Geophys. Res. 105, 2315, ). Extension of their study in time and to different data reveals decadal epochs during which the ≈ 27.0 days, or a ≈ 28.3 days, or other quasi-periods dominate the signal. Space-time eigenvalue analyses of time series in 30 solar latitude bands, based on synoptic maps of unsigned photospheric fields, lead to two maximally independent modes that account for almost 30% of the data variance. One mode spans 45° of latitude in the northern hemisphere and the other one in the southern. The modes rotate around the Sun rigidly, not differentially, suggesting connection with the subsurface dynamo. Spectral analyses yield familiar dominant quasi-periods 27.04±0.03 days in the North and at 28.24±0.03 days in the South. These are replaced during cycle 23 by one at 26.45±0.03 days in the North. The modes show no tendency for preferred longitudes separated by ≈ 180°. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Principal components analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA) are used to identify global patterns in solar and space data. PCA seeks orthogonal modes of the two-point correlation matrix constructed from a data set. It permits the identification of structures that remain coherent and correlated or that recur throughout a time series. ICA seeks for maximally independent modes and takes into account all order correlations of the data. We apply PCA to the interplanetary magnetic field polarity near 1 AU and to the 3.25 R ⊙ source-surface fields in the solar corona. The rotations of the two-sector structures of these systems vary together to high accuracy during the active interval of solar cycle 23. We then use PCA and ICA to hunt for preferred longitudes in northern hemisphere Carrington maps of magnetic fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Modern Man had developed long before the migration from Africa began ∼ 55,000 years ago no agricultural societies developed until about ∼ 10,000 years ago. In the next 5,000 years agricultures developed independently in at least six regions of the world. It is virtually certain that it was not a chance occurrence that so many new agricultures appeared in the same 5,000 years. What inhibited agriculture world wide for 44,000 years and what changed ∼ 10,000 years ago? Here we suggest that a major factor influencing the development of agricultural societies was climate stability. From the experience of four cultures we estimate that the development of agriculture needed ∼ 2,000 years of climate free from significant climate variations on time scales of a few centuries. Using the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique specifically designed to exhibit the time history of the amplitude of variations in non-stationary time series such as climate proxy records, we find that between 50,000 years ago and the termination of the Younger Dryas ∼ 11,600 years ago there was probably no time span as long as 2,000 years that was free of relatively large century scale variations. Furthermore variations on these time scales appear to have been relatively small since the Younger Dryas (YD) ended, supporting our proposition concerning the importance of climate stability in the history of human culture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic time series contain quasi periodicities on scales of 1-2.5 years. The further discovery of 1.3 year fluctuations in helioseismic observations suggests that a variety of signals may be related to the underlying dynamo in the Sun. We use independent component analysis to study the temporal and spatial variations of a few statistically independent global modes of the axisymmetric solar magnetic field over a period of 25 years. Five modes capture the salient properties of the data. Two modes describe the polar and high latitude fields, and present 1-1.5 year quasi periodicities. The other three modes correspond to low and mid-latitude phenomena and show both 1.3 and 1.7-year variations. By comparing the characteristic time scales, dates of occurrence and heliocentric latitudes of these modes, we connect them to their manifestations in heliospheric time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A principal component analysis, or proper orthogonal decomposition, of the axisymmetric magnetic field at the photosphere is carried out to find an optimal representation of the observed solar cycle. The 22-year periodic field requires just two modes. NSO Kitt Peak synoptic maps for Carrington rotations 1664-2007 were reduced by taking both the mean and the median field over longitude to produce two sequences of functions of sine latitude spanning 25.7 years. The lowest modes of each are determined by the polar fields. The mean field is most efficient at representing the periodic field, but the median field is more efficient at representing the evolution of the diffuse field patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have indicated that there may be two distinct types of coronal mass ejections (CMEs); a high-velocity bright energetic type associated with flares, and a smaller slower less impressive type associated with erupting prominences. How valid is this distinction? We analyze a CME combining attributes of both types, a high-velocity bright CME associated with an erupting prominence. A study of this event and several others allows us to argue that the apparent differences separating the two types may be an observational effect. Our results are consistent with a single CME process for both flare-associated and filament-associated CMEs. This process consists of three stages. The initial stage is brought about by the emergence of new magnetic flux, which interacts with the pre-existing magnetic configuration and results in a slow rise of the magnetic structure, which later becomes the CME. The second stage is a fast reconnection phase with flaring and a sudden increase of the rise velocity of the magnetic structure. It also includes a rapidly increasing CME acceleration followed by a rapidly falling acceleration. The third stage or CME propagation stage shows only slow changes in the acceleration and finally the velocity becomes constant. LASCO observes only the third stage. The differences found between observed flare-associated and prominence-associated CME velocity behavior appear to be primarily due to the relative heights in the corona at which the erupting structures form. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Below the scale of supergranules we find that cellular flows are present in the solar photosphere at two distinct size scales, approximately 2 Mm and 4 Mm, with distinct characteristic times. Simultaneously present in the flow is a non-cellular component, with turbulent scaling properties and containing 30% of the flow energy. These results are obtained by means of wavelet spectral analysis and modeling of vertical photospheric motions in a 2-hour sequence of 120 SOHO/MDI, high-resolution, Doppler images near disk center. The wavelets permit detection of specific local flow patterns corresponding to convection cells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sunspots, seen as cool regions on the surface of the Sun, are a thermal phenomenon. Sunspots are always associated with bipolar magnetic loops that break through the solar surface. Thus to explain the origin of sunspots we have to understand how the magnetic field originates inside the Sun and emerges at its surface. The field predicted by mean-field dynamo theories is too weak by itself to emerge at the surface of the Sun. However, because of the turbulent character of solar convection the fields generated by dynamo are intermittent – i.e., concentrated into ropes or sheets with large spaces in between. The intermittent fields are sufficiently strong to be able to emerge at the solar surface, in spite of the fact that their mean (average) value is weak. It is suggested here that magnetic fields emerge at the solar surface at those random times and places when the total magnetic field (mean field plus fluctuations) exceeds the threshold for buoyancy. The clustering of coherently emerged loops results in the formation of a sunspot. A non-axisymmetric enhancement of the underlying magnetic field causes in the clustering of sunspots forming sunspot groups, clusters of activity and active longitudes. The mean field, which is not directly observable, is also important, being responsible for the ensemble regularities of sunspots, such as Hale's law of sunspot polarities and the 11-year periodicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the solar dynamics and the origin of active regions depends crucially on our knowledge of the magnetic fields deep within the convection zone. Can we determine magnetic fields there? Some clues are given by dynamo theories and modeling of those instabilities in the convection zone which result in the emergence of magnetic flux. Magnetic field generated by dynamo is predominantly azimuthal and believed to be unstable to the formation of flux tubes. Simulations indicate that the emergence of the magnetic flux tubes strongly depends on the field strength and its longitudinal distribution at the bottom of the convection zone. In a unifying approach advocated in this paper the solar magnetic field is split into a mean part generated by the mean-field dynamo and a fluctuating part approximated by an ensemble of flux tubes. Observationally, the identification of the longitudinal distribution of emerging photospheric magnetic fields can give us information about the magnetic field strength at the bottom of the convection zone. Distinguishing between the modes of emerging field requires simultaneous magnetic imaging of both sides of the Sun. Correlation of simultaneous Dopplergrams of the photosphere from earthside and from the farside of the Sun opens an opportunity to detect velocity structures at the base of the convection zone, associated with the dynamo and emerging active regions. This global imaging of the photosphere can also be used for detection of a magnetic field in the solar core. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show that newly emerging flux tends to appear on the solar surface at sites where there is flux already; this results in clustering of solar activity. Standard dynamo theories do not predict this effect, and the mean field estimated by the theories is too weak to emerge at the surface of the Sun at all. Here a solution of the problem is suggested that involves strong fluctuating fields generated by the dynamo. The magnetic field emerges at the solar surface when the total field (the mean field plus fluctuations) exceeds the threshold for buoyancy. A slowly changing enhancement of the mean field provides a long-living basis ('hump') for emergence of fluctuating fields. The enhancements are gradually destroyed by the solar differential rotation, the stretching time scale of which defines the lifetime of clusters of activity. A simple 2-dimensional model explaining the appearance of persistent clusters of emerging flux is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model of diffusion induced by the joint action of random cells of two different sizes (granulation and supergranulation) is developed. The basic properties of the model are defined by the dimensionless ratio ζ = (the life time)/(characteristic size/velocity) constructed for these two types of cells. An analytical expression for the diffusivity as a function of ζ is derived. It is estimated that for the standard parameters used the contribution of granulation to the joint diffusion is small. A comparison between the model and numerical simulations of the kinematic diffusion of magnetic fields on the solar surface is made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using a nonlinear model of an axisymmetric α - Ω dynamo, an analytical expression which gives the magnitude of the mean magnetic field as a function of rotation and other parameters for a solar-type convective zone is obtained. The mean magnetic field varies as the $$\frac{3}{4}$$ power of the rotation rate. The resulting theoretical relationship of the X-ray luminosity as a function of the angular velocity is in agreement with observations by Fleming, Gioia, and Maccacaro (1989). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the question of whether or not the non-periodic variations in solar activity are caused by a white-noise, random process. The Hurst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series, is evaluated for the series ofC data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD. We find a constant Hurst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H ≈ 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations demonstrate a nearly 22-year periodic zonal flow superimposed on general solar differential rotation (LaBonte and Howard, 1982) and some meridional motions (e.g., Tuominen, Tuominen, and Kyrolänen, 1983). Such flows can be excited by the magnetic wave generated by the dynamo in the solar convective zone. An approximate analytical solution for the zonal and meridional flows for a given magnetic wave is constructed. This approach is justified by the fact that the magnetic field is generated by differential rotation and mean helicity, and the magnetic field in the time interval under consideration does not affect much this main flow; it can, however, strongly influence the perturbations of this flow. The density gradient in the convective zone is taken into account as an essential point in the solution construction. The solution agreed well with observational features and, in particular, it gives a phase shift between the rotational (zonal) wave and solar activity. A polar branch of the rotational wave can be described as an effect created by a poleward moving dynamo wave. Secular variations in the symmetrical part of the differential rotation and in the asymmetry between the north and south hemispheres are predicted. The alternative approaches to the explanation of the origin of the observed large-scale flows are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An estimate of the dimension of the attractor of the dynamic system responsible for solar activity is obtained from the time series of carbon 14 experimental data (4300 BC to 1950 AD). According to this estimate the attractor is a fractal, in shape close to a 3-torus. The attractor's trajectories characterizing the evolution of the magnetic field exhibit irregular long-term behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have applied a technique recently proposed basing on learning nonlinear dynamics locally to describe the annual sunspot relative numbers. It is proved that the number of past points for prediction should be greater than 4 but less than 10. This rather simple approach yields in average relatively good results for short-term forecasts (< 11 yr). Particularly, it predicts that the current cycle no. 22 will reach a very high maximum. However, this approach must be modified in the vicinity of a grand minimum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The kinematic dynamo equations for the mean magnetic field are solved with an asymptotic method of the WKB type. The excitation conditions and main characteristics of the non-axially symmetric modes for a given distribution of the sources are obtained. Utilization of the helioseismologic data on the Sun's internal rotation permits an explanation, within the framework of dynamo theory, of the excitation of the main non-axially symmetric modes revealed in the Sun's magnetic field sector structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An asymptotic solution of generation equations for the solar mean magnetic field is given and studied. The variation of rotational angular velocity with depth is taken from helioseismological data. Average helicity is prescribed according to the mixing length theory. It is shown that three dynamo waves of the magnetic field are excited. The first wave is generated at the surface layer and concentrates at latitudes of about 60°. Its activity becomes apparent in the poleward migration of the zone of polar faculae formation. The second more powerful wave of the field is excited in the center of the convection zone and its activity shows up in a sunspot cycle. The third wave which is similar to the first wave, is generated at the bottom of the convection zone and attenuates towards the surface. Its activity may appear as a three-fold reversal of the polar magnetic field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The basic features of the solar activity mechanism are explained in terms of the dynamo theory of mean magnetic fields. The field generation sources are the differential rotation and the mean helicity of turbulent motions in the convective zone. A nonlinear effect of the magnetic field upon the mean helicity results in stabilizing the amplitude of the 22-year oscillations and forming a basic limiting cycle. When two magnetic modes (with dipole and quadrupole symmetry) are excited nonlinear beats appear, which may be related to the secular cycle modulation. The torsional waves observed may be explained as a result of the magnetic field effect upon rotation. The magnetic field evokes also meriodional flows. Adctual variations of the solar activity are nonperiodic since there are recurrent random periods of low activity of the Maunder minimum type. A regime of such a magnetic hydrodynamic chaos may be revealed even in rather simple nonlinear solar dynamo models. The solar dynamo gives rise also to three-dimensional, non-axisymmetric magnetic fields which may be related to a sector structure of the solar field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]