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The browning of surface waters due to the increased terrestrial loading of dissolved organic carbon is observed across the northern hemisphere. Brownification is often explained by changes in large-scale anthropogenic pressures (including acidification, and climate and land-use changes). We quantified the effect of environmental changes on the brownification of an important lake for birds, Kukkia in southern Finland. We studied the past trends of organic carbon loading from catchments based on observations taken since the 1990s. We created hindcasting scenarios for deposition, climate and land-use change in order to simulate their quantitative effect on brownification by using process-based models. Changes in forest cuttings were shown to be the primary reason for the brownification. According to the simulations, a decrease in deposition has resulted in a slightly lower leaching of total organic carbon (TOC). In addition, runoff and TOC leaching from terrestrial areas to the lake was smaller than it would have been without the observed increasing trend in temperature by 2 °C in 25 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426–452 TgC) and sequestration potential (− 12 to − 17.5 TgCO2eq a−1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference conditions of water bodies are defined as the natural or minimal anthropogenically disturbed state. We compared the methods for determining total phosphorus and total nitrogen concentrations in rivers in Finland, Norway and Sweden as well as the established reference conditions and evaluated the possibility for transfer and harmonisation of methods. We found that both methods and values differed, especially for lowland rivers with a high proportion of agriculture in the catchment. Since Denmark has not yet set reference conditions for rivers, two of the Nordic methods were tested for Danish conditions. We conclude that some of the established methods are promising but that further development is required. We moreover argue that harmonisation of reference conditions is needed to obtain common benchmarks for assessing the impacts of current and future land use changes on water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nordic water bodies face multiple stressors due to human activities, generating diffuse loading and climate change. The 'green shift' towards a bio-based economy poses new demands and increased pressure on the environment. Bioeconomy-related pressures consist primarily of more intensive land management to maximise production of biomass. These activities can add considerable nutrient and sediment loads to receiving waters, posing a threat to ecosystem services and good ecological status of surface waters. The potential threats of climate change and the 'green shift' highlight the need for improved understanding of catchment-scale water and element fluxes. Here, we assess possible bioeconomy-induced pressures on Nordic catchments and associated impacts on water quality. We suggest measures to protect water quality under the 'green shift' and propose 'road maps' towards sustainable catchment management. We also identify knowledge gaps and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring data and good models to evaluate changes in water quality, improve understanding of bioeconomy-related impacts, support mitigation measures and maintain ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Finnish Agri-Environmental Programme aims to reduce nutrient load to waters. Using national monitoring data, we estimated the agricultural load (incl. natural background) of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) transported by 21 Finnish rivers to the northern Baltic Sea and analysed the flow-adjusted trends in the loads and concentrations from 1985 to 2006. We also related the loads to spatial and temporal patterns in catchment and agricultural characteristics. Agricultural load of TN increased, especially in the rivers discharging into the Bothnian Bay, while the load of TP decreased in most of the rivers, except those discharging into the Archipelago Sea. The trends may partly be related to a decrease in grassed area (TP, TN) and increased mineralisation (TN), but the available data on catchment and agricultural characteristics did not fully explain the observed pattern. Our study showed that data arising from relatively infrequent monitoring may prove useful for analysing long-term trend. The mutual correlation among the explaining variables hampered the analysis of the load generating factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report on preparatory work to develop a virtual laboratory for ecosystem services, ESLab, and demonstrate its pilot application in southern Finland. The themes included in the pilot are related to biodiversity conservation, climate mitigation and eutrophication mitigation. ESLab is a research environment for ecosystem services (ES), which considers ES indicators at different landscape scales: habitats, catchments and municipalities and shares the results by a service that utilizes machine readable interfaces. The study area of the pilot application is situated in the boreal region of southern Finland and covers 14 municipalities and ten catchments including forested, agricultural and nature conservation areas. We present case studies including: present carbon budgets of natural ecosystems; future carbon budgets with and without the removal of harvest residues for bioenergy production; and total phosphorus and nitrogen future loads under climate and agricultural yield and price scenarios. The ESLab allows researchers to present and share the results as visual maps, statistics and graphs. Our further aim is to provide a toolbox of easily accessible virtual services for ES researchers, to illustrate the comprehensive societal consequences of multiple decisions (e.g. concerning land use, fertilisation or harvesting) in a changing environment (climate, deposition). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two models, N_EXRET and INCA, were applied to the Simojoki river basin (3160 km2) in northern Finland in order to assess nitrogen retention in wetlands and lakes. N_EXRET is a spatial, export coefficient-based N export and retention model developed for large river basins. It utilizes remote sensing-based land use and forest classification, evaluated export coefficients, and data on areal N deposition and point sources of N. A new version (v1.7) of the Integrated Nitrogen in CAtchments model (INCA) is a semi-distributed, dynamic nitrogen process model, which simulates and predicts nitrogen transport and processes within catchments. Average retention of the gross total N load of 700 t a-1 to the river system was estimated using N_EXRET model as 17 t N a-1 to the wetlands and 77 t N a$^\{-1\}$ to the lakes. A good fit was found between modeled and measured values along the river. Inorganic N fluxes simulated by the INCA model were compared with measured fluxes along the river Simojoki, with a good fit between modeled and measured NH4+-N fluxes, and an adequate fit for NO3--N fluxes. Both fluxes were overestimated at the first reach, below Lake Simojärvi. High percentage of peatlands led to high NH4+-N/NO3--N ratios derived from data, indicating negligible nitrification in large river subbasins and particularly in small research catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new version (v1.7) of the Integrated Nitrogen in CAtchments model (INCA) was applied to the northern boreal Simojoki river basin (3160 km2) in Finland. The INCA model is a semi-distributed, dynamic nitrogen (N) process model which simulates N transport and processes in catchments. The INCA model was applied to model flow and seasonal inorganic N dynamics of the river Simojoki basin over the period 1994–1996, and validated for two more years. Both calibration and validation of the model were successful. The model was able to simulate annual dynamics of inorganic N concentrations in the river. The effects of forest management and atmospheric deposition on inorganic N fluxes to the sea in 2010 were studied. Three scenarios were applied for forestry practices and two for deposition. The effects of forest cutting scenarios and atmospheric deposition scenarios on inorganic N flux to the sea were small. The combination of the maximum technically possible reduction of N deposition and a decrease of 100% in forest cutting and peat mining areas decreased NO3--N flux by 6.0% and NH4+-N flux by 3.1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. This study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe, producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalized linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive effects and 33% resulted in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes, the frequencies of additive and interactive effects were similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers these frequencies increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, with effects generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.