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The late-glacial and post-glacial history of the development of the White Sea coastal zone in the area of the Varzuga River estuary is considered as a result of the interaction of endogenous and exogenous factors of coastal morpholithogenesis. Based on the geomorphological investigations, study of Holocene deposits by lithostratigraphic, diatom, and radiocarbon analyses, as well as collection and analysis of published data, new results on the development of relief of the area for ~13 cal ka have been obtained. The features of the regional hierarchical morphostructure and local post-glacial tectonics of the territory—the spatial relationships of blocks and the rate of vertical movements—were determined. The superimposed linear Nizhnevarzugskaya Depression, which determined the configuration of the Varzuga River estuary in the late-glacial and post-glacial periods, was identified for the first time. The influence of the spatial ratio of blocks and differentiated post-glacial uplift on the coastal morpholithogenesis was established. The course of changes in the relative sea level (RSL), development conditions, and morphodynamics of the open coast and the estuary of the Varzuga River were reconstructed, and new data on the rhythms of coastal geomorphologic processes (coastal, estuarine, and eolian) were obtained. Three stages of development of the coastal zone were identified, which corresponded to regional rhythms of changes in the relative sea level and climate. They are (I) the Late Glacial transgression and Early Holocene regression (~12 to 9.8 cal ka BP), (II) the Middle Holocene Tapes transgression (7.8 to 4.9 cal ka BP), and (III) the Late Holocene regression (after 4.9 cal ka BP). The upper marine boundary of the Late Glacial transgression was traced at heights of ~54 or 55 m to the west of the Nizhnevarzugskaya depression, 39 or 40 m to its east, and 22 to 25 m a.s.l in the depression. The shores of lower morphostructural blocks up to ~10.2–9.8 cal ka BP were probably blocked by dead ice. During the Tapes transgression, the RSL reached a maximum (~20 m a.s.l.) of ~7.8 to 7.6 cal ka BP and slowly decreased to ~15 m a.s.l. in the interval of ~7.6 to 4.9 cal ka BP. The prevailing directions of sediment fluxes and the approaches of winds and waves became similar to those of today and have not changed significantly since that time. The main source of the coastal sediment supply was the erosion of glaciofluvial sediments and the input of sands from the seabed. In the interval of ~4.9 to 1.7 cal ka BP, the RSL decreased to ~5 m a.s.l. and then slowly approached the modern one. Activation of coastal (~5–1 cal ka BP) and channel (~4.9–4.7 to 3.6–3.4 cal ka BP) processes contributed to rapid filling of the estuary and formation of accumulative sand terraces on exposed banks. The sediment runoff of the Varzuga River became the main source of coastal sediment supply. After ~2.3 cal ka BP, several stages in the intensification of eolian processes were revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work is to unravel the role of geomorphic indicators and/or signatures to be used as evidence for palaeoenvironmental changes and other forcing mechanisms from the lower reaches of the Sabarmati river basin, Gujarat, India region. In the present study, geomorphic features have been used as archives to debate the past land-sea interactions using satellite imagery. In the lower reaches of the Sabarmati river, a number of meanders, sinuosity changes, palaeochannels, and scroll plains have been identified. As a result of the rise and fall of the sea during the Holocene period, the changes in hydrodynamic and steady-state conditions of the river can be visualized in terms of changes in landforms. Thus, the intriguing geomorphic landforms in the lower portions of the Sabarmati basin delineate the likely archives and signs of previous environmental change, in particularly ∼ the relative sea level change. This approach provides first-hand documentation of the fluvial evolution under the direct impact of the varying forcing mechanisms. This attempt shows the effectiveness of satellite images in unravelling the clues to past changes from the landscape in a fast and insightful manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major sources of uncertainty affecting vertical land motion (VLM) estimations are discontinuities and trend changes. Trend changes are most commonly caused by seismic deformation, but can also stem from long-term (decadal to multidecadal) surface loading changes or from local origins. Although these issues have been extensively addressed for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, there is limited knowledge of how such events can be directly detected and mitigated in VLM, derived from altimetry and tide-gauge differences (SATTG). In this study, we present a novel Bayesian approach to automatically and simultaneously detect such events, together with the statistics commonly estimated to characterize motion signatures. Next to GNSS time series, for the first time, we directly estimate discontinuities and trend changes in VLM data inferred from SATTG. We show that, compared to estimating a single linear trend, accounting for such variable velocities significantly increases the agreement of SATTG with GNSS values (on average by 0.36 mm/year) at 339 globally distributed station pairs. The Bayesian change point detection is applied to 606 SATTG and 381 GNSS time series. Observed VLM, which is identified as linear (i.e. where no significant trend changes are detected), has a substantially higher consistency with large-scale VLM effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and contemporary mass redistribution (CMR). The standard deviation of SATTG (and GNSS) trend differences with respect to GIA+CMR trends is by 38% (and 48%) lower for time series with constant velocity compared to variable velocities. Given that in more than a third of the SATTG time series variable velocities are detected, the results underpin the importance to account for such features, in particular to avoid extrapolation biases of coastal VLM and its influence on relative sea-level-change determination. The Bayesian approach uncovers the potential for a better characterization of SATTG VLM changes on much longer periods and is widely applicable to other geophysical time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The land surface beneath the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets is isostatically suppressed by the mass of the overlying ice. Accurate computation of the land elevation in the absence of ice is important when considering, for example, regional geodynamics, geomorphology, and ice sheet behaviour. Here, we use contemporary compilations of ice thickness and lithospheric effective elastic thickness to calculate the fully re-equilibrated isostatic response of the solid Earth to the complete removal of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. We use an elastic plate flexure model to compute the isostatic response to the unloading of the modern ice sheet loads, and a self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth model to make an adjustment for the remaining isostatic disequilibrium driven by ice mass loss since the Last Glacial Maximum. Feedbacks arising from water loading in areas situated below sea level after ice sheet removal are also taken into account. In addition, we quantify the uncertainties in the total isostatic response associated with a range of elastic and viscoelastic Earth properties. We find that the maximum change in bed elevation following full re-equilibration occurs over the centre of the landmasses and is +783 m in Greenland and +936 m in Antarctica. By contrast, areas around the ice margins experience up to 123 m of lowering due to a combination of sea level rise, peripheral bulge collapse, and water loading. The computed isostatic response fields are openly accessible and have a number of applications for studying regional geodynamics, landscape evolution, cryosphere dynamics, and relative sea level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across Europe, coasts are drastically being changed to adapt to relative sea level rise, which will influence coastal landscapes and heritage in many ways. In this paper, we introduce a methodological starting point for analysing the ways in which landscape architects and spatial planners engage with coastal landscapes and coastal heritage in the context of current climate adaptation projects. We test these methodologies by applying them to the Marconi dike strengthening project in Delfzijl, the Netherlands. This city's dike fortification is an interesting case, as it offers many opportunities for re-designing heritage. The city borders the Wadden Sea area, a tidal mudflat area protected as a UNESCO World Heritage Site for its natural and geological heritage values. The area also consists of a rich cultural landscape, which is overlooked in the public image and in local policy. We conclude that landscape architects and planners should strengthen not only the dike, but also the interpretation of the past that dominates policy and political debates in the area. We also find that the existing heritage production model of Ashworth and Tunbridge can provide some useful structure for understanding and contextualizing spatial planning for climate change as a way of doing heritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the facies and depositional environment of the early Miocene Dam Formation, Eastern Arabian platform, Saudi Arabia. Deposition of Dam Formation (Fm.) was considered as a restricted shallow marine deposition. Few studies suggest the role of sea-level change in its deposition but were without decisive substantiation. Here, we describe the facies and high-resolution model of Dam Fm. under varying depositional conditions. The depositional conditions were subjected to changing relative sea level and tectonics. High-resolution outcrop photographs, sedimentological logs, and thin sections present that the mixed carbonate–siliciclastic sequence was affected by a regional tectonics. The lower part of Dam Fm. presents the development of carbonate ramp conditions that are represented by limestones and marl. The depositional conditions fluctuated with the fall of sea level, and uplift in the region pushed the siliciclastic down-dip and covered the whole platform. The subsequent rise in sea level was not as pronounced and thus allowed the deposition of microbial laminites and stromatolitic facies. The southeast outcrops, down-dip, are more carbonate prone as compared to the northwest outcrop, which allowed the deposition of siliciclastic-prone sedimentation up-dip. All facies, architecture, heterogeneity, and deposition were controlled by tectonic events including uplift, subsidence, tilting, and syn-sedimentary faulting, consequently affecting relative sea level. The resulting conceptual outcrop model would help to improve our understanding of mixed carbonate–siliciclastic systems and serve as an analogue for other stratigraphic units in the Arabian plate and region. Our results show that Dam Fm. can be a good target for exploration in the Northern Arabian Gulf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Rio Del Rey basin located in the Gulf of Guinea is one of the two basins lining the Cameroonian coast. It evolved since the Cenozoic in a tectono-magmatic and seismic complex setting. During the Miocene, this evolution was controlled by tectonics, relative sea level changes, basin filling and mantle dynamics. Two deposit megasequences of second order, MS1 and MS2, were pointed out. MS1 (lower Miocene), aggradational and corresponding to the Isongo turbidites deposited during a period of relative sea level drop registered two sequences of third order differentiated by the degree of channel incision: S1a (Aquitanian–Burdigalian), hardly incised and S1b (Serravallian), moderately incised. A double extension along N–S (Burdigalian) and NE–SW (Serravallian) directions responsible for a set of horsts and grabens, high subsidence and depocentres trending NW–SE affected these sequences. MS2 (middle to upper Miocene), progradational and corresponding to deltaic alternations deposited during a period of creation of available space were controlled by the tilting, wrenching, a second stretching phase and low sedimentary filling. MS2 recorded three cycles of 3rd order: S2a (lower Tortonian), S2b (upper Tortonian) and S2c (Messinian) differentiated by their morphology in ramp for S2a and S2b and slope for S2c. The formation of grabens and horsts and the tilting of the margin coincide with the high activity of the Cameroon volcanic line interpreted as a result of deep mantle dynamics affecting the inner Congo craton lithosphere. This architecture, which differs from those of the other basins of the Gulf of Guinea, partly explains the low oil production of this basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important interval for reef evolution occurs in the Triassic Period. However, Late Triassic reefs along the edge of the Panthalassa Ocean receive much less attention than their Tethys region counterpart. To improve our understanding of reef evolution along the Panthalassa, we present a quantitative microfacies analysis to characterize reef facies types from a central Nevada locality. We point counted thin sections to quantitatively assess the relative abundance of reef and interstitial components from six Carnian reef mounds. Reef mound formation occurs at three different stratigraphic intervals. Each interval records a different reef mound size and shape. The oldest stratigraphic interval consists of four separate reef mounds; each mound is approximately 3–12 m wide and 2–4 m high. The second youngest stratigraphic interval consists of one large ~ 10-m wide and 15.5-m high domal reef mound. The third, and youngest, reef mound is smaller in comparison (i.e., 1-m wide and 1.5-m high). We recognize two reef facies types within these reef mounds. Different calcareous sponges, bound together by microproblematica and clotted micrite, form the overall reef framework. We suspect that changes in relative sea level affect the initial colonization, different growth capacities, and overall preservation of the South Canyon reef mounds. When South Canyon reefs are compared to other Panthalassa reefs, it seems that "Wetterstein-type" reef–sponge bindstone facies containing biogenic crusts dominate and corals are less abundant and persist generally in both shallow and deeper water environments. However, significant differences in primary and secondary framebuilder abundances exist due to differences in where the reefs grew in relation to fair-weather wave base (FWWB). Thus, changes in relative sea level may affect the initial colonization, different growth capacities, and overall preservation of reef but water depth may also control the primary and secondary reef builders. Consequently, quantitative assessment of reef ecosystems within a sequence stratigraphic framework undoubtedly facilitates fewer problematic comparisons between reefs but it also enhances our understanding of reef development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To review our current understanding of coastal sea level change and variability, from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales, and characterize the relationship between large-scale open ocean processes and coastal sea level; To assess the ability of ocean model-data syntheses in estimating coastal sea level variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models in projecting future sea level changes. The paper by Gregory et al. ([4]) defines various concepts and terms associated with sea level and sea level changes and proposes a revised terminology to be adopted when discussing sea level and related issues. Poor knowledge of the different contributions to sea level change leads to inaccuracies in the description of the uncertainties in coastal sea level projections. [Extracted from the article]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea-level rise over in the next 100 years will be enough to flood large areas and cause several environmental impacts. The municipality of Mangaratiba (Macroregion of Costa Verde, on the coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro) follows the worldwide trend of population growth in the coastal zone, with large buildings and a very early local commerce in its surroundings. Their beaches are exposed to environmental impacts caused by the relative sea-level rise, which can be intensified mainly by the pressures of anthropic activities. A simulation of the relative sea-level rise in the city of Mangaratiba was carried out, emphasizing the flood areas from the marine transgression. Therefore, with the overlay of the flooded area with the land use map, it was possible to quantify the flood in each one of the classes. Afterwards, through a bibliographical survey and application of interaction and listings matrices, it was possible to evaluate the probable environmental impacts from the flood mentioned above. The result showed that an increase in the relative sea-level in the study area would have several consequences such as coastal erosion, flooding, damage to areas of urban occupation and to the dunes, which could directly affect the infrastructure, housing and local tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An index of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) damage potential due to winds and coastal surge is developed using seasonal climate variables of relative sea surface temperature and steering flow. These climate variables are proxies for the key damaging TC parameters of intensity, size, and forward speed that constitute an existing cyclone damage potential index. This climate-based approach has the advantage of sidestepping the need for data on individual TCs and explains 48 % of the variance in historical cyclone damage potential. The merit of the cyclone damage potential is in assessments relative to past events or past periods, and may be translated to actual damage using relationships between the damage potential index and specific exposure and vulnerability characteristics. Spread in the change in damage potential over the 21st century among climate simulations under representative concentration pathways 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 is found to be less than the spread due to internal variability, as assessed using a climate model initial condition large ensemble. This study highlights the importance of accounting for internal climate variability in future climate impact assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments in coastal zones around the world. Assessment of the risks due to exposure and sensitivity of coastal communities to coastal flooding is essential for informed decision-making. Strategies for public understanding and awareness of the tangible effects of climate change are fundamental in developing policy options. A multidisciplinary, multinational team of natural and social scientists from the USA, the UK, and Brazil developed the METROPOLE Project to evaluate how local governments may decide between adaptation options associated with SLR projections. METROPOLE developed a participatory approach in which public actors engage fully in defining the research problem and evaluating outcomes. Using a case study of the city of Santos, in Brazil, METROPOLE developed a method for evaluating risks jointly with the community, comparing 'no-action' to 'adaptation' scenarios. At the core of the analysis are estimates of economic costs of the impact of floods on urban real estate under SLR projections through 2050 and 2100. Results helped identify broad preferences and orientations in adaptation planning, which the community, including the Santos municipal government, co-developed in a joint effort with natural and social scientists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inland boundary conditions have significant impacts on seawater intrusion (SWI) due to sea-level rise (SLR). This study investigated the impacts of three inland boundary conditions (flux-controlled (FC), head-controlled (HC) and general-head boundary (GHB)) on modeling SWI due to SLR in coastal aquifers. First, we used the TOUGH2/EOS7 software program to solve the standard Henry's problem and compared the results with those from the literatures. Numerical simulations were performed to investigate the impacts of the three inland boundary conditions on SWI induced by SLR in confined coastal aquifers (standard Henry's problem) and unconfined coastal aquifers (Henry's problem extended to unconfined domains). The simulation results show that HC systems in both confined and unconfined coastal aquifers are remarkably vulnerable to the effects of SLR owing to the resulting decreased head difference, while FC systems are relatively insensitive to SLR because the equivalent freshwater head at the inland boundary can increase by a similar magnitude to the SLR. The GHB boundary is more realistic than the other two boundary conditions: the recharge decreases because of SLR depending on the aquifer properties and the head difference between the reference head and the equivalent freshwater head at the seaside boundary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A source-pathway-receptor method is used to assess the risk of the coastal community of Charlestown, RI, USA, to the 100-year storm, including effects of sea level rise (SLR) and shoreline/dune erosion. The 100-year storm is simulated using a chain of stochastic and physics-based models combined with a scenario-based approach. Storm surge and wave spectral parameters, obtained from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS), are used as boundary conditions for high-resolution wave simulations, performed in the coastal and inundation zones using the steady-state spectral wave model STWAVE. Selected scenarios are defined to assess the magnitude of the variability in predicted damage resulting from the uncertainty in SLR, erosion rate, and time at which the 100-year storm would occur. Erosion rates are based on empirical analyses of historic rates of shoreline change, SLR measurements, and coastal erosion theory. The risk is measured in terms of damage to individual houses, based on damage curves developed in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NACCS study. In addition, remediation scenarios are explored, demonstrating that a combination of dune replenishment and an increase in the residential resilience by elevating structures can significantly diminish the risk to the coastal community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow ( Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coastal systems faced with deteriorating habitat, accelerated sea level rise, and changes in precipitation and storm patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many salt marshes throughout southern New England are exhibiting a trend toward submergence, as reported in this volume and other published literature. This paper provides a brief perspective on sea-level rise and the many other interacting factors that contribute to marsh submergence in this and other regions. Curtailing nutrient loading and removing or altering barriers (e.g., dams, dikes) to the delivery of suspended sediment to marshes are discussed as management or restoration techniques to consider for increasing long-term sustainability of marshes. Adaptation measures are many (e.g., thin-layer sediment application to marsh surface, facilitation of landward marsh migration, shoreline stabilization), but all require study to evaluate their potential for enhancing resilience. Research, monitoring, and dynamic modeling, coupled with appropriate management and adaptation approaches implemented at local and regional scales, will contribute to the challenge of sustaining salt marshes in an uncertain future of sea-level rise, other climate factors, and stressors associated with a developing coastal zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are commonly assessed for ecological condition and biological integrity using a three-tiered framework of landscape-scale assessment, rapid assessment protocols, and intensive biological and physiochemical measurements. However, increased inundation resulting from accelerated sea level rise (SLR) is negatively impacting tidal marsh ecosystem functions for US Northeast coastal wetlands, yet relative vulnerability to this stressor is not incorporated in condition assessments. This article assesses tools available to measure coastal wetland vulnerability to SLR, including measurements made as part of traditional rapid condition assessments (e.g., vegetation communities, soil strength), field and remote sensing-based measurements of elevation, VDatum, and Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) model outputs. A vulnerability metric that incorporates these tools was calibrated and validated using recent rates of marsh vegetation losses (1972-2011) as a surrogate for future vulnerability. The metric includes complementary measures of elevation capital, including the percentage of high vs. low marsh vegetation, Spartina alterniflora height, elevation measurements, and SLAMM outputs that collectively explained 62% of the variability in recent rates of marsh vegetation loss. Stepwise regression revealed that all three elements (elevation, vegetation measures, and SLAMM outputs) explained significant and largely unique components of vulnerability to SLR, with the greatest level of overlap found between SLAMM outputs and elevation metrics. While soil strength varied predictably with habitat zone, it did not contribute significantly to the vulnerability metric. Despite the importance of determining wetland elevation above key tidal datums of mean sea level and mean high water, we caution that VDatum was found to perform poorly in back-barrier estuaries. This factor makes it difficult to compare elevation capital among marshes that differ in tidal range and poses accuracy problems for broad-scale modeling efforts that require accurate tidal datums. Given the pervasive pattern of coastal wetland drowning occurring in the Northeastern USA and elsewhere, we advocate that compilation of regional data on marsh habitats and vulnerability to SLR is crucial as it permits agencies to target adaptation to sites based on their vulnerability or mixture of habitats, it helps match sites to appropriate interventions, and it provides a broader regional context to site-specific management actions. Without such data, adaptation actions may be implemented where action is not necessary and to the disadvantage of vulnerable sites where opportunities for successful adaptation will be missed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise is a major stressor on many salt marshes, and its impacts include creek widening, ponding, vegetation dieback, and drowning. Marsh vegetation changes have been associated with sea level rise across southern New England, but most of these studies pre-date the current period of rapidly accelerating sea level rise coupled with episodic events of extreme increases in water levels. Here, we combine data from two salt marsh monitoring and assessment programs in Rhode Island that were designed to assess marsh responses to sea level rise and use these data to document temporal and spatial patterns in marsh vegetation during the current period of extreme water level increases. Vegetation monitoring at two Narragansett Bay salt marshes confirms the ongoing decline of the salt meadow species Spartina patens during this period as it becomes replaced by Spartina alterniflora. Bare ground resulting from vegetation dieback was significantly related to mean high water levels and led to the rapid conversion of mixed Spartina assemblages to S. alterniflora monocultures. A broader spatial assessment of RI marshes shows that S. alterniflora dominance increases at lower elevation marshes toward the mouth of Narraganset Bay. Our data provide additional evidence that S. patens continues to decline in southern New England marshes and show that losses can accelerate during periods of extreme high water levels. Unless adaptive management actions are taken, we predict that marshes throughout RI will continue to lose salt meadow habitat and eventually resemble lower elevation marshes that are already dominated by S. alterniflora monocultures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeastern US salt marshes face multiple co-stressors, including accelerating rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR), elevated nutrient inputs, and low sediment supplies. In order to evaluate how marsh surface elevations respond to such factors, we used surface elevation tables (SETs) and surface elevation pins to measure changes in marsh surface elevation in two eastern Long Island Sound salt marshes, Barn Island and Mamacoke marshes. We compare marsh elevation change at these two systems with recent rates of RSLR and find evidence of differences between the two sites; Barn Island is maintaining its historic rate of elevation gain (2.3 ± 0.24 mm year from 2003 to 2013) and is no longer keeping pace with RSLR, while Mamacoke shows evidence of a recent increase in rates (4.2 ± 0.52 mm year from 1994 to 2014) to maintain its elevation relative to sea level. In addition to data on short-term elevation responses at these marshes, both sites have unusually long and detailed data on historic vegetation species composition extending back more than half a century. Over this study period, vegetation patterns track elevation change relative to sea levels, with the Barn Island plant community shifting towards those plants that are found at lower elevations and the Mamacoke vegetation patterns showing little change in plant composition. We hypothesize that the apparent contrasting trend in marsh elevation at the sites is due to differences in sediment availability, salinity, and elevation capital. Together, these two systems provide critical insight into the relationships between marsh elevation, high marsh plant community, and changing hydroperiods. Our results highlight that not all marshes in Southern New England may be responding to accelerated rates of RSLR in the same manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level rise is a key driver of projected flooding risks. The design of strategies to manage these risks often hinges on projections that inform decision-makers about the surrounding uncertainties. Producing semi-empirical sea-level projections is difficult, for example, due to the complexity of the error structure of the observations, such as time-varying (heteroskedastic) observation errors and autocorrelation of the data-model residuals. This raises the question of how neglecting the error structure impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we quantify this effect on sea-level projections and parameter distributions by using a simple semi-empirical sea-level model. Specifically, we compare three model-fitting methods: a frequentist bootstrap as well as a Bayesian inversion with and without considering heteroskedastic residuals. All methods produce comparable hindcasts, but the parametric distributions and projections differ considerably based on methodological choices. Our results show that the differences based on the methodological choices are enhanced in the upper tail projections. For example, the Bayesian inversion accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the sea-level anomaly with a 1% probability of being equaled or exceeded in the year 2050 by about 34% and about 40% in the year 2100 compared to a frequentist bootstrap. These results indicate that neglecting known properties of the observation errors and the data-model residuals can lead to low-biased sea-level projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to result in an acceleration of current rates of sea level rise, inundating many low-lying coastal and intertidal landscapes. This could have important implications for many coastal habitat types and related organisms that depend on these habitats, including shorebirds that rely on them for feeding, overwintering and breeding. Potential change in the availability of suitable breeding area according to linear and model-based sea level rise scenarios was modeled for four breeding birds (Kentish Plover, Little Tern, Common Tern and Black-winged Stilt) in Sečovlje Salina Nature Park, based on precise mapping of nests over a period of 10 years and on present environmental predictors. Different breeding niches for the studied bird species in SSNP were identified, which indirectly indicates different responses to environmental change, in this case triggered by climate change induced sea level rise. Future breeding suitability maps indicate that the Little Tern and the Common Tern could potentially face a drastic decrease of adequate breeding grounds in SSNP later than the Kentish Plover and the Black-winged Stilt. However, these individual species responses to sea level rise, as a climate change driver, is a step forward for conservation biologists and landscape planners in protected areas, as they prepare cost-effective plans for mitigating negative impact on these ecosystems. This study also illustrates an important general point about the likely effects of climate change on ecological resources, which is that climate change does not happen in a vacuum; its impact will interact with pre-existing stress factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term flood risk management often relies on future sea-level projections. Projected uncertainty ranges are however widely divergent as a result of different methodological choices. The IPCC has condensed this deep uncertainty into a single uncertainty range covering 66% probability or more. Alternatively, structured expert judgment summarizes divergent expert opinions in a single distribution. Recently published uncertainty ranges that are derived from these 'consensus' assessments appear to differ by up to a factor four. This might result in overconfidence or overinvestment in strategies to cope with sea-level change. Here we explore possible reasons for these different interpretations. This is important for (i) the design of robust strategies and (ii) the exploration of pathways that may eventually lead to some kind of consensus distributions that are relatively straightforward to interpret. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beaches are both sensitive and critical components of the coastal systems, as they are particularly vulnerable to environmental change (e.g., the sea level rise) and form valuable coastal ecosystems and economic resources. The objective of the present study has been to record the spatial characteristics and other attributes (e.g., topography, sediments and accessibility) of the 71 beaches of the E. Crete (Eastern Mediterranean) that are either already developed or have a reasonable development potential and assess their erosion risk under sea level rise. Beach retreats are predicted by ensembles of six cross-shore (1D) analytical and numerical morphodynamic models, set up/forced on the basis of collected/collated information and three sea level rise scenarios (0.26, 0.82 and 1.86 m); these retreats are then compared with the recorded maximum (dry) beach widths. Projections by the unified ensemble suggest that, in the case of a 0.26 m rise, 80 % of the examined beaches are to retreat by more than 20 and 16 % by more than 50 % of their maximum dry width. In the case of a 0.82 m rise, 72 % of the tested beaches are predicted to retreat by more than 50 % of their dry width and 21 % by a distance at least equal to their observed maximum dry widths. A sea level rise of 1.86 m represents a 'doom' scenario, as 75 % of the beaches are predicted to retreat by more than their maximum width. These results may be conservative, as other significant beach erosion factors (e.g., decreasing beach sediment supply) have not been considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a scheme to estimate oceanic and hydrological effects in the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data is presented. The aim is to reveal tectonic signals for the case of the Sumatra earthquake on 26 December 2004. The variations of hydrological and oceanic effects are estimated with the aid of data set of GRACE, altimetry, World Ocean Atlas, and the GLDAS model for a period of January 2003 to December 2006. The time series of computed gravity changes over Sumatra region show some correlations to the deformation resulting from the earthquake occurred in December 2004. The maximum and minimum impacts of hydrological and oceanic effects on gravity changes are about 3 μGal in radial direction and -5 μGal in northward direction. The maximum and minimum amounts of gravitational gradient changes after the correction are 0.2 and -0.25 mE, which indicates the significant influences of hydrological and oceanic sources on the desired signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC GODAS2.0) has been run daily in a pre-operational mode. It spans the period 1990 to the present day. The goal of this paper is to introduce the main components and to evaluate BCC GODAS2.0 for the user community. BCC GODAS2.0 consists of an observational data preprocess, ocean data quality control system, a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation, and global ocean circulation model [Modular Ocean Model 4 (MOM4)]. MOM4 is driven by six-hourly fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Satellite altimetry data, SST, and in-situ temperature and salinity data are assimilated in real time. The monthly results from the BCC GODAS2.0 reanalysis are compared and assessed with observations for 1990-2011. The climatology of the mixed layer depth of BCC GODAS2.0 is generally in agreement with that ofWorld Ocean Atlas 2001. The modeled sea level variations in the tropical Pacific are consistent with observations from satellite altimetry on interannual to decadal time scales. Performances in predicting variations in the SST using BCC GODAS2.0 are evaluated. The standard deviation of the SST in BCC GODAS2.0 agrees well with observations in the tropical Pacific. BCC GODAS2.0 is able to capture the main features of El Ni˜no Modoki I and Modoki II, which have different impacts on rainfall in southern China. In addition, the relationships between the Indian Ocean and the two types of El Ni˜no Modoki are also reproduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of a sensitivity work based on ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulations over the Middle East-North Africa (CORDEX-MENA) domain are presented. All simulations were performed at 0.44° spatial resolution. The purpose of this study was to ascertain model performances with respect to changes in physical and tuning parameters which are mainly related to surface, convection, radiation and cloud parameterizations. Evaluation was performed for the whole CORDEX-MENA region and six sub-regions, comparing a set of 26 COSMO-CLM runs against a combination of available ground observations, satellite products and reanalysis data to assess temperature, precipitation, cloud cover and mean sea level pressure. The model proved to be very sensitive to changes in physical parameters. The optimized configuration allows COSMO-CLM to improve the simulated main climate features of this area. Its main characteristics consist in the new parameterization of albedo, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data, and the new parameterization of aerosol, based on NASA-GISS AOD distributions. When applying this configuration, Mean Absolute Error values for the considered variables are as follows: about 1.2 °C for temperature, about 15 mm/month for precipitation, about 9 % for total cloud cover, and about 0.6 hPa for mean sea level pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a study of Baltic Sea level spectrum formation in several frequency ranges. Topics discussed include use of spectrum analysis to examine the fluctuations at sea level and the energy contribution of several frequency bands at four coastal tide gauge stations, formation of fluctuations at the sea level that is influenced by mesoscale variability, and total dispersion of fluctuations due to seasonal variability.

Determining the time when the climate change signal from increasing greenhouse gases exceeds and thus emerges from natural climate variability (referred to as the time of emergence, ToE) is an important climate change issue. Previous ToE studies were mainly focused on atmospheric variables. Here, based on three regional sea-level projection products available to 2100, which have increasing complexity in terms of included processes, we estimate the ToE for sea-level changes relative to the reference period 1986-2005. The dynamic sea level derived from ocean density and circulation changes alone leads to emergence over only limited regions. By adding the global-ocean thermal expansion effect, 50% of the ocean area will show emergence with rising sea level by the early-to-middle 2040s. Including additional contributions from land ice mass loss, land water storage change and glacial isostatic adjustment generally enhances the signal of regional sea-level rise (except in some regions with decreasing total sea levels), which leads to emergence over more than 50% of the ocean area by 2020. The ToE for total sea level is substantially earlier than that for surface air temperature and exhibits little dependence on the emission scenarios, which means that our society will face detectable sea-level change and its potential impacts earlier than surface air warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on an integrated analysis of high-resolution 2D/3D seismic data and drilling results, this study analyzes the tectonic-sedimentary evolution of the Qiongdongnan Basin (QDNB) since the late Miocene, and discusses the controlling factors on the formation and development of the Central Canyon System (CCS). The sediment failures caused by the relative sea level falling might have discharged deposits from the slope to the canyon. The two suits of the infillings, i.e., turbidites and mass transport complex (MTC), were derived from the northwestern source and northern source, respectively. The sediment supplies, which differ significantly among different areas, might have led to the variations observed in the internal architectures. Tectonic transformation around 11.6 Ma had provided the tectonic setting for the CCS and formed an axial sub-basin in the central part of the Changchang Depression, which could be called the rudiment of the CCS. The tectonic activity of the Red River Fault (RRF) at about 5.7 Ma might have strengthened the hydrodynamics of the deposits at the junction of the Yinggehai Basin (YGHB) and the QDNB to trigger a high-energy turbidity current. The MTC from the northern continental slope system might have been constrained by the Southern Uplift, functioning as a barrier for the infillings of the CCS. Thanks to a sufficient sediment supply during the Holocene period and the paleo-seafloor morphology, the relief of modern central canyon with the starving landform in the eastern Changchang Depression might have been accentuated by deposition of sediments and vertical growth along the canyon flanks, where collapse deposits were widely developed. Corresponding to the segmentation of the CCS, the forming mechanisms of the canyon between the three segments would be different. The turbidite channel in the head area had likely been triggered by the abundant sediment supply from the northwestern source together with the fault activity at about 5.7 Ma of the RRF. The formation and evolution of the canyon in the western segment were caused by combined effects of the turbidite channel from the northwestern source, the MTC from the northern continental slope, and the paleo-seafloor geomorphology. In the eastern segment, the canyon was constrained by the tectonic transformation occurring at approximately 11.6 Ma and the insufficient sediment supply from the wide-gentle slope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine vegetated habitats (seagrasses, salt-marshes, macroalgae and mangroves) occupy 0.2% of the ocean surface, but contribute 50% of carbon burial in marine sediments. Their canopies dissipate wave energy and high burial rates raise the seafloor, buffering the impacts of rising sea level and wave action that are associated with climate change. The loss of a third of the global cover of these ecosystems involves a loss of CO2 sinks and the emission of 1 Pg CO2 annually. The conservation, restoration and use of vegetated coastal habitats in eco-engineering solutions for coastal protection provide a promising strategy, delivering significant capacity for climate change mitigation and adaption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level rise threatens coastal salt-marshes and mangrove forests around the world, and a key determinant of coastal wetland vulnerability is whether its surface elevation can keep pace with rising sea level. Globally, a large data gap exists because wetland surface and shallow subsurface processes remain unaccounted for by traditional vulnerability assessments using tide gauges. Moreover, those processes vary substantially across wetlands, so modelling platforms require relevant local data. The low-cost, simple, high-precision rod surface-elevation table-marker horizon (RSET-MH) method fills this critical data gap, can be paired with spatial data sets and modelling and is financially and technically accessible to every country with coastal wetlands. Yet, RSET deployment has been limited to a few regions and purposes. A coordinated expansion of monitoring efforts, including development of regional networks that could support data sharing and collaboration, is crucial to adequately inform coastal climate change adaptation policy at several scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The range of relative sea level rise in the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum was over 100 m. As a result, lowland regions including the Northeast Vietnam coast, Beibu Gulf, and South China coast experienced an evolution from land to sea. Based on the principle of reconstructing paleogeography and using recent digital elevation model, relative sea level curves, and sediment accumulation data, this paper presents a series of paleogeographic scenarios back to 20 cal. ka BP for the northwestern South China Sea. The scenarios demonstrate the entire process of coastline changes for the area of interest. During the late glacial period from 20 to 15 cal. ka BP, coastline slowly retreated, causing a land loss of only 1×104 km2, and thus the land-sea distribution remained nearly unchanged. Later in 15–10 cal. ka BP coastline rapidly retreated and area of land loss was up to 24×104km2, causing lowlands around Northeast Vietnam and South China soon to be underwater. Coastline retreat continued quite rapidly during the early Holocene. From 10 to 6 cal. ka BP land area had decreased by 9×104km2, and during that process the Qiongzhou Strait completely opened up. Since the mid Holocene, main controls on coastline change are from vertical crustal movements and sedimentation. Transgression was surpassed by regression, resulting in a land accretion of about 10×104km2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author reflects on the importance of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level in Great Britain. The author cites the responsibilities of the agency especifically in the measurements using tide gauges and data from satellites of the mean sea level. The author also discusses the expertise of the agency on the use of several observational platforms that use independent techniques in the measurement of the different aspects of sea-level rise.