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Purpose: This study is to investigate the impact of the coexistence of basic intermittent exotropia and vertical incomitance in the form of the V and sub-V pattern on the results of surgical correction of intermittent exotropia. Methods: The records of 81 pediatric patients who had surgery for intermittent exotropia and a follow-up of more than 1 year were reviewed retrospectively. They were divided into groups: a concomitant group which underwent only horizontal muscle surgery of bilateral lateral rectus recession and a V pattern group which had additional inferior oblique recession, further separated into two subgroups: ≥ 15 prism diopters (classic V pattern group) and ≥ 10 < 15 prism diopters (sub-V pattern group). The surgical outcome, deviation control, stereoacuity, and postoperative drift were assessed after 3 months and 1 year postoperatively. Results: Patients with sub-V and classic V pattern intermittent exotropia showed significantly better surgical success rate (p = 0.025) and less postoperative drift (p = 0.042) than patients without vertical incomitance. One year after surgery, successful surgical outcome was achieved in 83.72% of the vertically incomitant group: 80.76% for the classic V pattern and 88.24% for the sub-V pattern group, while only in 60.53% of nonpattern patients. Conclusions: Patients operated for intermittent exotropia with a coexistent V pattern have consistently better surgical long-term results than those with only horizontal deviation. Additional inferior oblique recessions in the sub V pattern group provided excellent outcomes with no overcorrections; therefore, surgeons should consider addressing vertical incomitance even when the typical criteria for the V pattern are not met. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures on the degree of countercyclicality of fiscal policies for advanced and developing economies between 1980 and 2021. The use of time-varying measures of fiscal stabilization, with special attention to potential endogeneity issues, overcomes the major limitation of previous studies and allows the analysis to account for both country-specific as well as global factors. The paper also examines the key determinants of countercyclicality of fiscal policy with a focus on factors as severe crises, informality, financial development and governance. Empirical results show that (i) fiscal policy tends to be more countercyclical during severe crises than typical recessions, especially for advanced economies; (ii) fiscal countercyclicality has increased over time for many economies over the last two decades; (iii) discretionary and automatic countercyclicality are both strong in advanced economies but acyclical (at times procyclical) in low-income countries; (iv) fiscal countercyclicality operates primarily through the expenditure channel, particularly for social benefits; and (v) better financial development, larger government size and stronger institutional quality are associated with larger countercyclical effects of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various specifications and endogeneity checks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is possible to solve unbounded convex vector optimization problems (CVOPs) in two phases: (1) computing or approximating the recession cone of the upper image and (2) solving the equivalent bounded CVOP where the ordering cone is extended based on the first phase. In this paper, we consider unbounded CVOPs and propose an alternative solution methodology to compute or approximate the recession cone of the upper image. In particular, we relate the dual of the recession cone with the Lagrange dual of weighted sum scalarization problems whenever the dual problem can be written explicitly. Computing this set requires solving a convex (or polyhedral) projection problem. We show that this methodology can be applied to semidefinite, quadratic, and linear vector optimization problems and provide some numerical examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of Spanish households' indebtedness and financial vulnerability over the course of this century using micro-data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Our results show a growing debt participation of Spanish households and an increase in the stock of outstanding debt of indebted households, a trend that reversed with the end of the Great Recession. Moreover, the percentage of financially vulnerable households according to three indicators grew dramatically until the end of the downward phase of the last economic cycle and showed considerable signs of improvement during the second half of 2010s. These results, nonetheless, call attention to the number of Spanish households being unable to service their debts in the face of an economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cash transfer programs have emerged as potent tools for alleviating poverty and enhancing the living conditions of the most deprived households in developing nations. Such initiatives have now become integral components of social protection systems in many developing countries, including Pakistan. Evaluating the efficacy of these safety nets is crucial to comprehend their value in terms of public expenditure. This research employed a well-being index to gauge the impact of unconditional cash transfers on the socioeconomics of recipients. By employing three rounds of the BISP impact assessment survey conducted in 2011, 2016, and 2019. The study measured the overall impact of cash transfers on well-being by utilizing Principal Component Analysis in conjunction with a Difference-in-Differences Quasi-Experimental design over the years. The findings of the study indicate that between 2011 and 2016, the socioeconomic status declined for both treatment and control groups, but the reduction was less pronounced among those who received treatment compared to the control group with insignificant. From 2016 to 2019, there was a marginal positive increase in socioeconomic status, although it was of insignificance. Overall, the well-being of both the control and treatment groups decreased from 2011 to 2019, with a slightly more pronounced improvement observed in the treatment group. This trend suggests that the impact of the BISP unconditional cash transfer program had a limited effect on altering the well-being of the beneficiaries. The lack of substantial impact from the BISP's cash transfers on household well-being can be attributed to factors such as inflation, unemployment, economic slowdown, payment challenges, insufficient funding, and gaps between installments. The government of Pakistan should reconsider the substantial investment in BISP within the context of value for money. It is advisable for the government and policymakers to channel this substantial investment into income generation, capital asset development, microbusinesses, climate-resilient agriculture, and livestock in order to stimulate the real economy sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has created significant challenges to the global economy, especially within the tourism industry. Economic downturns and psychological barriers make it even more challenging to attract tourists back. This paper explores the stimulating effect of digital travel vouchers on tourist mobility, as well as the heterogeneous effects of different vouchers modes. Using monthly data on tourist inflows in 306 cities from September 2020 to December 2021, collected by a web-crawling tool, and manually gathered information of digital travel vouchers issued during this period, our analyses show that digital travel vouchers can boost tourist inflows. Their effectiveness, however, depends on the method of issuance and the total number distributed. Furthermore, significant spillover effects among neighboring cities are found through a spatial econometric model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between household employment insecurity and the risk of children's exposure to household material deprivation in Spain and Portugal. Specifically, using EU-SILC microdata for 2012, 2016 and 2020, it examines how this relationship evolved during the Post-Great Recession period. Although in both countries there was an improvement in the employment situation of individuals and families after the Great Recession, the main findings reflect an increase in the risk of children's exposure to material deprivation in households where no adults have a secure job. However, there are some differences between the two countries. In the case of Spain, the results seem to indicate that the incidence of household employment insecurity on material deprivation was higher in 2016 and 2020 than in 2012. In Portugal, the increase in the effect of employment insecurity on deprivation seems to have occurred only in 2020, the year the Covid-19 pandemic began. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This retrospective cohort study evaluates the influence of connective tissue grafts (CTG) on bone regeneration at implant sites with total loss of the buccal bone wall treated with flapless immediate implant placement (IIP) and reconstruction with autogenous bone chips (AB) within a follow-up of up to 13 years. Methods: Sixty implants were inserted in 55 patients in sites with total loss of the buccal bone wall between 2008 and 2021. The implants were inserted and the buccal gaps were grafted by AB. A subgroup of 34 sites was grafted additionally with CTG using tunnel technique. Primary outcome was the vertical bone regeneration in height and thickness. Secondary outcome parameters were interproximal marginal bone level, recession, soft tissue esthetics (PES), width of keratinized mucosa (KMW) and probing depths (PPD). Results: Mean follow-up period was 60.8 months. In 55 sites a complete vertical bone regeneration was documented. The mean buccal bone level increased by 10.6 mm significantly. The thickness of the buccal bone wall ranged between 1.7 and 1.9 mm, and was significantly thicker in sites without CTG. Interproximal marginal bone level was at implant shoulder level. The mean recession improved significantly by 1.2 mm. In sites with CTG, recessions and PES improved significantly more. Conclusions: Additional CTG in extraction sites with total buccal bone loss followed by IIP with simultaneous AB grafting led to improved PES and recession, but also to a thinner buccal bone wall compared to sites grafted just with AB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examined how conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 vaccines specifically relate to symptoms of fear of COVID-19 in a sample of four South American countries. A total of 1785 people from Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru participated, responding to a sociodemographic survey, the Fear of COVID-19 scale (FCV-19 S) and the Vaccine Conspiracy Beliefs Scale-COVID-19 (VCBS-COVID-19). Network analysis identified the most important symptoms of fear and conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 vaccines (nodes) and the associations between them (edges). In addition, the robustness of the network of these indicators of centrality and the possible differences in the structure and connectivity of the networks between the four countries were evaluated. The results suggest that the nodes with the highest centrality were items 2 and 5 of the FCV-19 S and item 2 of the VCBS-COVID-19. Likewise, item 6 is the belief that most predicts conspiracy beliefs about vaccines against COVID-19; while item 6 was the symptom that most predicts fear of COVID-19. The findings strongly support cross-cultural similarities in the networks across the four countries rather than differences. Although it was expected that a higher presence of symptoms of fear of COVID-19 may lead people to compensate for their fear by believing in conspiratorial ideas about vaccines and, consequently, rejecting the COVID-19 vaccine, the results do not clearly show this relationship. This could lead other researchers to generate evidence to explain the differences between Latin American countries and countries in other contexts in terms of vaccination rates. This evidence could be useful to develop policies favoring vaccination against COVID-19 that are more contextualized to the Latin American region, characterized by social instability and economic recession during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The association between economic cycles—typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment—and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level. Results indicate that educational expansion has been a structural driver of fertility postponement, whereas the procyclical effect of economic cycles accounts for accelerations and decelerations of fertility postponement throughout the period considered. Microsimulation of macro-level fertility trends indicates that individual-based models predict the annual proportion of women entering parenthood and the mean age at first birth with average errors of prediction below 1 per cent and 3 months, respectively, while also showing strong correlations between first differences of observed and simulated time-series. Because the extended observation window encompasses several severe recessions, we test whether the association between economic cycles and entry into parenthood has changed over time and how this affected macro-level trends, discussing several mechanisms that may account for such temporal variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In times of economic crisis, many employers in liberal labor markets reduce their employees' working hours, which leads to an increase in the incidence of involuntary part-time work. We analyze the effectiveness of working time regulation in preventing such an increase during downswings. For this we look at the case of Germany, where hours adjustments are highly restricted by law. Using a state-level panel regression approach, we find that the incidence of involuntary part-time work is positively associated with the unemployment rate but that the association is much weaker than in the US and in the UK. Transition probabilities between employment states over the cycle suggest two particular underlying mechanisms: First, already employed workers are more likely to want a full-time position in economic downturns ("added hours effect"). Second, job seekers make concessions with regards to their desired hours when labor market conditions are bad ("reservation hours effect"). We are the first to document these margins of cyclical hours adjustments which are fundamentally different from those in less regulated labor markets, where the cyclicality of involuntary part-time work is predominantly driven by hours changes at the same employer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global economic downturns and multiple extreme events threaten Vietnam's economy, leading to a surge in stock market risk and significant spillovers. This study investigates market risk spillovers and explores the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic indicators on market risk across 24 sectors in Vietnam from 2012 to 2022. We use the value-at-risk (VaR) technique and a vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate market risks and their spillovers across Vietnamese sectors. We then examine the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic indicators on market risk using a panel nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL) model. Our results confirm that Vietnam's market risk increases rapidly in response to extreme events. Additionally, market risks exhibit substantial inter-connectedness across the Vietnamese sectors. The Building Materials, Technology, and Securities sectors are primary risk transmitters, whereas the Minerals, Development Investment, and Education sectors are major risk absorbers. Our results also confirm that market risk responds asymmetrically to changes in interest rates, exchange rates (USD/VND), trade openness, financial development, and economic growth in the short and long run. Minerals, Oil & Gas, and Rubber are the sectors that are most affected by macroeconomic indicators in the long run. Based on these important findings, implications focused on limiting market risks and their spillovers, along with sustainable investing, have emerged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mixed-integer convex representable (MICP-R) sets are those sets that can be represented exactly through a mixed-integer convex programming formulation. Following up on recent work by Lubin et al. (in: Eisenbrand (ed) Integer Programming and Combinatorial Optimization - 19th International Conference, Springer, Waterloo), (Math. Oper. Res. 47:720-749, 2022) we investigate structural geometric properties of MICP-R sets, which strongly differentiate them from the class of mixed-integer linear representable (MILP-R) sets. First, we provide an example of an MICP-R set which is the countably infinite union of convex sets with countably infinitely many different recession cones. This is in sharp contrast with MILP-R sets which are (countable) unions of polyhedra that share the same recession cone. Second, we provide an example of an MICP-R set which is the countably infinite union of polytopes all of which have different shapes (no pair is combinatorially equivalent, which implies they are not affine transformations of each other). Again, this is in sharp contrast with MILP-R sets which are (countable) unions of polyhedra that are all translations of a finite subset of themselves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML), a transformational technology, has been successfully applied to forecasting events down the road. This paper demonstrates that supervised ML techniques can be used in recession and stock market crash (more than 20% drawdown) forecasting. After learning from strictly past monthly data, ML algorithms detected the Covid-19 recession by December 2019, six months before the official NBER announcement. Moreover, ML algorithms foresaw the March 2020 S&P500 crash two months before it happened. The current labor market and housing are harbingers of a future U.S. recession (in 3 months). Financial factors have a bigger role to play in stock market crashes than economic factors. The labor market appears as a top-two feature in predicting both recessions and crashes. ML algorithms detect that the U.S. exited recession before December 2020, even though the official NBER announcement has not yet been made. They also do not anticipate a U.S. stock market crash before March 2021. ML methods have three times higher false discovery rates of recessions compared to crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the spread of COVID-19, economic damages are challenging for governments and people's livelihood besides its dangerous and negative impact on humanity's health, which can be led to death. Various health guidelines have been proposed to tackle the virus outbreak including quarantine, restriction rules to imports, exports, migrations, and tourist arrival that were affected by economic depression. Providing an approach to predict the economic situation has a highlighted role in managing crisis when a country faces a problem such as a disease epidemic. We propose an intelligent algorithm to predict the economic situation that utilizes neural networks (NNs) to satisfy the aim. Our work estimates correlation coefficient based on the spearman method between gross domestic product rate (GDPR) and other economic statistics to find effective parameters on growing up and falling GDPR and also determined the NNs' inputs. We study the reported economic and disease statistics in Germany, India, Australia, and Thailand countries to evaluate the algorithm's efficiency in predicting economic situation. The experimental results demonstrate the prediction accuracy of approximately 96% and 89% for one and more months ahead, respectively. Our method can help governments to present efficient policies for preventing economic damages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dutch disease literature reveals several gaps between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions. To bridge such gaps, I develop a model that accounts for uneven spillovers of technological progress from the resource sector to other domestic sectors. I then employ a dynamic panel approach to align the theory with the data. I find that the real exchange rate appreciation resulting from a resource boom (i.e., the spending channel) is more pronounced in resource-poor countries than in resource-rich countries. Additionally, the resource movement channel exhibits differences between resource-rich and resource-poor countries. In resource-rich countries, a resource boom reduces the growth rate in the manufacturing sector more than in the service sector, leading to a decrease in relative sectoral output and a slowdown in economic growth. On the other hand, in resource-poor countries, a resource boom accelerates the growth of the manufacturing sector and decelerates the growth of the service sector, resulting in an increase in relative sectoral output and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do new products launched during a recession perform better? Does the severity of the recession matter? Are products more successful when launched earlier or later in a recession? These are all questions of managerial importance that as yet remain unanswered in the extant marketing literature. The authors analyze two datasets: 1) 8,981 product launches in 20 United Kingdom fast-moving consumer goods categories over 18 years and 2) 1,071 product launches in the United States automotive market over 63 years. The results reveal products launched (a) during a recession and (b) later rather than earlier in the recession survive longer, while more severe recessions are associated with shorter survival. The same findings emerge for the dependent variables of sales and market share. This paper thus enriches marketing theory on recessions by conceptualizing and quantifying timing effects on new product launch success. For managers, the results demonstrate the benefits of countercyclical launching of new products during recessions and of marketing proactively in such economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic recession negatively affected many people's physical, social, and psychological health and has been shown to change population-level mobility, but little attention has been given to park visitations as an indicator. Estimating the frequency of park visitations from aggregated mobility data of all the parks in Washington State (USA), we study trends in park use one year prior to and two years during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that the gravity model is a robust model for the park visitation behavior in different spatial resolutions of city level and state level and different socio-economical classes. Incorporating network structure, our detailed analysis highlights that high-income level residents changed their recreational behavior by visiting their local parks more and a broader recreational options outside of their local census area; whereas the low-income residents changed their visitation behavior by reducing their recreational choices. While it is renown that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the population mobility, little attention has been given to modeling the structural patterns of park visitations, and how these patterns have changed. The authors perform such analysis via gravity model as well as network structure analysis, and link the recreational propensity to socio-economical status of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has highlighted the enduring negative impact of family economic adversity on youth emotional well-being. However, the longitudinal mechanism underlying the link between economic adversity and emotional distress is less explored. The present study examined the longitudinal pathway of parent economic adversity, and parent and adolescent emotional distress at age 16, parental support at age 21, youth self-esteem and mastery at age 23, and adult emotional distress at age 27. Data came from the Family Transitions Project (N = 441, 57% female), a 30-year study of families from the rural Midwest. Structural equation models revealed that economic adversity exerted a long-term negative influence on adult emotional well-being through parent and adolescent emotional distress and youth self-esteem and mastery. Additionally, parental support was associated with adult emotional distress through youth self-esteem and mastery. The current study advances our understanding of youth emotional well-being by suggesting a longitudinal family process and resilience pathways from adolescence to early adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To assess trends in food insecurity between 2005 and 2017—a period including the Great Recession—by participation in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). Methods: Data from the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS), 2005–2017, were used, including 7421 households: WIC participants (n = 4184)—those participating in WIC only (n = 2315) and in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in addition to WIC (n = 1869)—and WIC-eligible non-participants (n = 3237). Multivariable logistic regression models were run with food insecurity as the outcome, WIC participation and survey year as predictors, and adjusted by children's and family's demographic and socioeconomic variables. Interactions between WIC participation and survey year were tested. Results: WIC + SNAP participating households had higher crude food insecurity prevalence across time compared to WIC only and WIC-eligible non-participant households. In fully adjusted models: (1) food insecurity was higher between 2009 and 2017, compared to 2005, for all groups; (2) WIC participating households had higher odds of food insecurity than WIC-eligible non-participants (OR = 1.23, 95%CI = 1.10–1.38); (3) when WIC participants were split into WIC only and WIC + SNAP, WIC + SNAP households had higher odds of food insecurity than WIC-eligible non-participants (OR = 1.45, 95%CI = 1.27–1.66); and (4) the association between food insecurity and WIC participation did not change across time (interaction p-value > 0.10). Conclusions: Food insecurity increased post-Great Recession among low-income households with children in California, with those participating in WIC, particularly in WIC + SNAP, at higher risk. WIC should consider additional referrals for households who participate in WIC + SNAP. Significance: What is already known on this subject? Food insecurity prevalence spiked during the Great Recession for all U.S. households, including those participating in WIC and SNAP. In 2009, SNAP benefits were expanded, and the WIC food package change was updated. What this study adds? Focusing on households with children who participated in WIC in California, this study found that food insecurity trends between 2005 and 2017 were not significantly different between WIC-eligible non-participant households and households who participated in WIC alone. On the other hand, households participating in WIC + SNAP had higher odds of food insecurity across time, when compared to WIC-eligible non-participant households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1990s, central banks in many industrialized and developing countries have adopted similar policy strategies for stabilizing inflation. In this context, it has been argued that during common policy periods, the relationships between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties are stable and more uniform across countries. We intend to verify this for 19 countries using both linear and non-linear bivariate GARCH-in-mean models. According to our findings, the non-linear regime-dependent model performs better in most of the sampled countries. It has been observed that inflation uncertainty has a significant impact on inflation, particularly in developing countries. Nominal and real uncertainty affect output growth primarily during periods of economic contraction. Although nominal uncertainty inhibits output growth, real uncertainty has mixed effects. In most countries, negative growth shocks result in greater output growth volatility than positive growth shocks. Furthermore, in some countries, output growth significantly increases inflation only in high-inflation regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to investigate the role of employment protection in affecting the relationship between regional self-employment and unemployment during turbulent times. In doing so, data comprised of 230 regions, nested in 17 EU countries, for the 2008–2015 period were used. When accounting for individual effects, we find that an increase in regional unemployment would decrease regional self-employment, while the opposite was found true for employment protection. When accounting for the cross-level interaction between regional unemployment and national employment protection legislation, however, we find that the underlying increased labor market rigidity not only decreases regional self-employment, but it also magnifies the adverse effect of regional unemployment. Our key results thus indicate that high labor market rigidity hinders self-employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The devastating effects of the financial and economic recessions within the last two decades have led researchers to question whether there is a connection between the public and private financial sectors that contributes to the rapid propagation of crisis. We analyze the fractional cointegrating structure between the private and public debt-to-GDP ratios for 17 European countries to examine the relevance of this relationship as an amplification channel of shocks. On the one hand, the univariate fractional integration approach reveals that shocks have permanent effects on financial variables in all the countries considered. On the other hand, we find that the number of countries for which private and public debt are cointegrated increase after the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amidst today's complex financial world, understanding how family adaptation may be fostered in contexts of macroeconomic adversity is paramount. The present qualitative study sought to investigate how Portuguese families with emerging adult children have been managing macroeconomic-related demands since the Great Recession. Specifically, we aimed at uncovering the processes that may have facilitated their adaptation to macroeconomic stress over the last decade. Fourteen two-parent families with at least one emerging adult child (N = 48 participants) participated in semi-structured interviews in late 2010s. Thematic analysis yielded three key themes: (i) Appraisal, capturing family beliefs regarding their macroeconomic contexts since early to late 2010s; (ii) Demands and Impact, reflecting the macroeconomic challenges with which families were confronted; (iii) Capabilities, including coping behaviors – such as financial cutbacks implemented during the recession – and resources – such as family cohesion and parental emotional and instrumental support to emerging adults – that facilitated families' demand management, potentially constituting key family processes in resilience during macroeconomic hard times. Despite their positive adaptation to macroeconomic demands during the most complicated years of recession, families continued to perceive great instability in their macroeconomic contexts in late 2010s, displaying concerns related to the future of emerging adults. These results highlighted that macroeconomic crises entail long-lasting impacts for individuals and families, alerting researchers, clinicians and politicians to the increased challenges currently faced by young people and their families. In addition, findings from this study can inform clinical practice and the development of multisystemic interventions aiming at helping financially stressed families. Highlights: Portuguese families with emerging adult children have been experiencing macroeconomic demands over the last decade. Key coping behaviors and resources for family adaptation in macroeconomic hard times were identified, including financial adjustments and cutbacks, family cohesion, family communication, and parental support to emerging adults. Parents and children presented financial- and employment-related future concerns, perceiving great instability in their current and anticipated macroeconomic contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method of direct potentiometry with a fluoride ion-selective electrode was used to determine the average concentrations—0.110 and 0.082 mg/L—of dissolved fluorine in the waters of the Lena River in 1995 and 2021 at the recession and peak of the spring-summer flood. Measurement results are compared with the data of studies in 1954–1980. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the challenges faced by nuclear medicine departments in strategic planning for the future of imaging. It emphasizes the importance of identifying potential risks and uncertainties, such as economic downturns and technological changes, and proposes a different approach to decision-making. The article suggests using tools like risk assessment and scenario planning, as well as maintaining flexibility, adaptability, clear vision, effective communication, and ongoing monitoring and evaluation. It also discusses the significance of continuous process, defining extreme but plausible scenarios, and identifying strategic options and hedges. The article provides a practical model for strategy development and performance monitoring. [Extracted from the article]

Social dynamics and economic cycles have driven population growth in Europe toward heterogeneous and hardly predictable spatial patterns. To assess the role of economic expansion and recession, our study identifies contextual factors of population growth and decline at the prefectural scale in Greece, a peripheral economy in Europe, estimating the differential impact of economic scale, agglomeration, accessibility, and amenities since the early 2000s. With economic expansion (2002–2009), population growth was largely dependent on agglomeration forces in both high and medium-density prefectures. The spatial model observed during recession (2010–2017) has instead reflected the inherent decline of agglomeration economies—with population increasing in accessible, rural districts with (natural and cultural) amenities. In more recent years, population growth in low-density coastal areas definitely suggests how demographic trends have been decoupled from the geography of income and wealth, reducing the divide in central and peripheral locations. The dominance of Athens and Thessaloniki in the Greek urban hierarchy progressively lowered, leading to a settlement model based on population growth in 'intermediate towns' and attractive/accessible rural locations. Such dynamics delineate a development path grounded on the spatial distribution of amenities, suggesting the existence of a 'reverse density dividend' that requires a specific investigation in advanced economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates fiscal multipliers and assesses fiscal policy effectiveness in the Caucasus and Central Asia economies over the medium-term. Using (Jordà, Am Econ Rev 95:161–182, 2005) local projection model, the study finds that fiscal multipliers are indeed state-dependent and that fiscal policy is more effective and has stronger effects during recession than expansion. The study indicates that the timing and type of fiscal shock matter in assessing the effects on output growth. Also, the study finds that although fiscal sustainability holds during recession, it is not the case in oil importing Caucasus and Central Asia economies as a rise in public debt ratio in fact deteriorates fiscal balance of these economies by approximately 0.001–1.6 percent. The study shows that fiscal shocks during recessions heterogeneously affect output growth at different horizons. While the study finds that fiscal balance tends to effective during recession, a timely fiscal intervention across the Caucasus and Central Asia with an optimal mix of government consumption and investment needs to be policy priority in order to stimulate the output growth during the economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to address pertinent economic and environmental issues associated with natural gas flaring, especially for the world's leading natural gas flaring economies (i.e. Russia, Iraq, Iran, the United States, Algeria, Venezuela, and Nigeria). By applying relevant empirical panel and country-specific approaches, the study found that fuel energy export positively impacts economic growth with elasticity of ~ 0.22 to ~ 0.24 for the panel examination. It is further revealed that environmental quality in the panel is hampered by increase in economic growth, gas flaring, fuel energy export, and urbanization. Moreover, for the country-wise inference, government quality desirably moderates economic and environmental aspects of gas flaring in Venezuela and Nigeria, and in Russia and Iran respectively. However, government quality moderates gas flaring to cause economic downturn in the USA. Additionally, economic growth increased with increase in urbanisation (in Iraq and the USA), gas flaring (in Iran and the USA), government quality (only in the USA), and fuel energy export (only in Algeria) while economic growth downturn is due to increase urbanisation in Russia and the USA, increase in fuel energy export in the USA, and increase in government quality in Russia. Meanwhile, environmental quality is worsened through intense carbon dioxide emission from increased urbanisation activity (in Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria), increased fuel energy export (in Nigeria), increased natural gas flaring (in Algeria and Nigeria), increased GDP (in Russia, Iran, USA, Algeria, and Venezuela), and high government quality (in Iran). Interestingly, the result revealed that increase in GDP (in Nigeria), increase in urbanisation (in the USA), and increase in gas flaring (in Algeria and Nigeria) dampens environmental quality. Importantly, this study offers policy insight into sustainable approaches in natural gas production, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is without question that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken its toll on the U.S. economy. Stay-at-home orders led to reduced vehicular traffic and widespread declines in anthropogenic emissions (e.g., nitrogen oxides (NOx)). This study is the first to explore the potential consequences of O3 changes resulting from the economic shutdown in the United States on soybean crop yields for 2020. The pandemic's impact on surface O3 is quantified using the NOAA's National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC), which is based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for May–July 2020. The "would-be", 2020 level business-as-usual (BAU) emissions are compared to a simulation that uses representative COVID-19 (C19) emissions. For each emissions scenario, crop exposures are calculated using the AOT40 cumulative exposure index and then combined with county-level soybean production totals to determine regional yield losses. Exposure changes ranged between – 2 and 2 ppmVhr−1. It was further shown that increased exposures (0.5 to 1.10 ppmVhr−1) in the Southeast U.S. counteracted decreased exposures (0.8 to 0.5 ppmVhr−1) in the other soybean-producing regions. As a result, corresponding yield improvements counteracted yield losses around the Mississippi River Valley and allowed for minimal improvements in soybean production loss totaling $6.5 million over CONUS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Design models are commonly used in fire safety design of light timber frame assemblies. Parameters for use in the models are available for rectangular members with mineral wool, wood fibre or cellulose insulation and for assemblies with I-joists and mineral wool. For assemblies where I-joists and combustible insulations are combined, design parameters are missing. Five fire experiments with two I-joist types and four combustible insulation products have been conducted. The aim was to study charring of I-joist flanges and recession rates of combustible insulations and in addition, to compare their behaviour to the new and existing models of Eurocode 5. Charring rates for the flanges were 0.40–0.76 mm/min and 0.54–1.72 mm/min for the protected and post-protected phase, respectively. Rates decreased with increasing flange size. Charring rates for flanges of solid wood and LVL were comparable. The results show that lateral charring of I-joist flanges can be significant in the protected phase. The tested insulation products showed a lower recession rate than values reported for glass wool insulation, with a more pronounced difference for wood fibre and cellulose insulations. The low recession rates compared to previously reported generic values can possibly be explained by better product-specific properties, negligible shrinking and slightly different test set-up. The insulation stayed well in place after gypsum board fall-off and best-practice for keeping the insulation in place is given. The results, completed with future loaded full-scale tests, can give basis for further development of design models for assemblies with I-joists and combustible insulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research shows that, in the USA, the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to GDP is greater when GDP declines than when GDP increases. Using monthly US data, we examine each individual recession since 1973. We find asymmetric changes in carbon emissions in the 1973–1975, 1980, 1990–1991, and 2020 recessions but not in the 1981–1982, 2001, or 2008–2009 recessions. The former four recessions are associated with negative oil market shocks. In the first three, there was a supply shock and in 2020, a demand shock. Changes in oil consumption that are not explained by changes in GDP explain these asymmetries. Furthermore, the asymmetries are due to emissions in the transport and industrial sectors, which are the main consumers of oil. We conclude that emissions behaved similarly in 2020 to the way they did in recessions associated with oil supply shocks, but, actually, this pattern is not inherent to the business cycle itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between economic recessions and cardiovascular mortality has been widely explored. However, there is limited evidence on whether economic uncertainty alone is linked to cardiovascular disease deaths. This study examines the association between economic uncertainty and mortality from diseases of the circulatory system in the United States. We obtained monthly state-level mortality data from 2008 to 2017 and used indices capturing economic uncertainty from national/international sources and local sources. Panel data modelling was used to account for unobserved time-invariant differences between the states. Our findings suggest that economic uncertainty is independently linked to cardiovascular mortality. Uncertainty arising from national/international sources is associated with cardiovascular deaths, whereas the respective index capturing uncertainty from state/local sources is not. Deaths respond asymmetrically with respect to uncertainty fluctuations – with high levels of uncertainty driving the association. One- and two-month lagged uncertainty levels are also associated with mortality. Several robustness checks further validate the baseline findings. Overall, economic uncertainty is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality which appears to act as a psychosocial stressor and a short-term trigger. Public health strategies for cardiovascular disease need to consider factors driving economic uncertainty. Preventive measures and raising awareness can intensify in periods of economic uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the impact of data revisions and data sources on the identification of double-dip recessions (DDR) in the United States (U.S.). The authors discuss the GDP revision process and how it can affect the classification of different types of U.S. recessions. They use the Kyer and Maggs methodology to analyze GDP data from different sources and find that data revisions and sources can influence the identification of DDR. The study also highlights the importance of re-examining past classifications of U.S. recessions based on revised data. [Extracted from the article]

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the public health system and socioeconomic sector, one of the worst being the impacts on the informal economy. Despite their past survival, the current pandemic-induced crisis has cast doubt on informal economy resilience. This study aims to capture the informal economy resilience facing the unprecedented economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. We reviewed 42 selected peer-reviewed journal articles to synthesise a general concept of informal economy resilience during pandemic-induced crisis. We found that strict lockdown during a pandemic becomes the main driver that exacerbates the vulnerability of informal economy. The impacts are spatiotemporally varied, different within the group, and have multilevel characteristics (from individual to society). This vulnerable condition has triggered the informal economy to conduct several coping mechanisms to face economic disadvantages. Both individual coping mechanisms and government intervention have altered the informal economy's resilience throughout time. The current combination of defense mechanisms results in four possibilities: bounce back better, bounce back, recover but worsen, and collapse. This review offers valuable insights into the appropriate actions that governments should undertake in response to economic downturns resulting from pandemics. It highlights the importance of considering vulnerable groups when formulating policy during a crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early evidence suggests that COVID-19 caused a sharp decrease in international trade and a widening of current account imbalances. This paper shows that (qualitatively) similar responses have characterized the effects of previous pandemics. Using data from a sample of 170 countries, we find that a pandemic shock is typically followed by a sizable decrease in output and trade volumes, but an uneven current account response: balances improve in developed (or surplus) economies but deteriorate in developing (or deficit) ones. We also explore potential mechanisms for this asymmetry, and our evidence is pointing to national saving and the business cycle phase as the main reasons behind the divergent current account dynamic responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New York City's fiscal crisis of 1975 was the result of many years of deficit spending to support a variety of expanded services and generous union contracts. These deficits were covered for years by the issuance of city short-term notes and long-term bonds. Eventually, the city's mounting debt of $14 billion led to its inability to sell its notes and bonds. In order to deal with the possibility of the city's financial collapse, the governor of New York State and the state legislature created the Emergency Financial Control Board (EFCB), whose purpose was to manage the city's budget and cost reduction plans. They also created the Municipal Assistance Corporation (MAC) responsible for fiscal oversight and the sale of specially issued bonds. Both agencies eventually played major roles in preventing the city's financial collapse. In an effort to address the costly 5,000 excess acute care hospital beds in the city, the governor and his advisors proposed the creation of a Health Czar (HC). The purpose of this position was to shift responsibility for hospital closures and downsizing from the state government to a para-governmental individual. While there was early support for this proposal by some print media, opposition soon arose because of the flawed structure of the proposal. Also, many initially opposed it because it included the city's public health agency, the New York City Department of Health (NYCDOH), which did not have any responsibility for hospitals. The HC proposal eventually lost broad support because it bypassed legally established processes for the oversight of hospitals. It also almost uniquely focused on the public hospital system, and in so doing gave a pass to the voluntary hospitals and their excess bed capacities. The proposal eventually lost the support of the then mayor when the governor publicly supported a rival candidate in an upcoming election. The election success of yet a third candidate opposed to the proposal resulted in its eventual abandonment by the governor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic recession caused by the restrictions on the spread of the Coronavirus disrupted the economic life of many countries. The primary purpose of the paper is to measure the impacts of intra-regional trade and investment on the green recovery of five Central Asian economies over 2010–2021 through employing annual data and the panel co-integration approach. The results confirmed that the degree of green trade openness positively and significantly affects the green recovery. The estimated coefficient of direct foreign investment is negative. The patent coefficient is not statistically significant, and the official exchange rate has a positive effect. Financial development has a positive and significant coefficient. The paper has several policy implications, such as enhancing green FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), supporting green innovation, and promoting green trade liberalism for scholars and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, financial development has been a prominent debate for stakeholders and policymakers alike. Financial development are prerequisites for innovation and CO2 emissions, followed by the Paris Climate Summit (COP21). In the wake of the global economic recession, financial development continues to address CO2 emissions efforts. However, scant attention is paid to the role of financial development in innovation and CO2 emissions relationship, especially in the context of developing countries. The current study explores the relationship between innovation and CO2 emissions through moderating role of financial development, especially in the context of developing countries. Utilizing a dynamic panel threshold approach, the current study utilizes data from 26 countries between 1990 and 2014. Our findings reveal that innovation positively impacts the reduction of carbon emissions when the stock market value-to-private credit ratio is below 1.71, while an opposite effect is observed when the ratio exceeds this threshold. We believe that the findings broaden the debate on financial development in developing countries. The results revealed that developing countries should allocate their domestic resources to financial development and poverty reduction, rather than solely addressing environmental concerns. In addition, a more sustainable balance between innovation and CO2 emissions could benefit through financial development and the impact may be the result in terms of achieving sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to highlight and understand the factors associated with excessive internet use. The population studied consisted of 904 students, aged 12 to 18 years. The study was conducted in Magnesia prefecture of central Greece, in a period after the economic recession, and participants came from a large urban area, a prefecture's capital, a municipal unit of the prefecture's capital and an island. Students were provided with the following questionnaires: Internet Addiction Test (IAT), Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI), Self-Efficacy Questionnaire for Children (SEQ-C), and Egna Minnen av Barndoms Uppfostran: "My Memories of Upbringing" for Children (EMBU-C). Participants were asked to fill out questionnaires about sociodemographic characteristics and the use of online activities. The findings indicated that 14.1% of students were excessive internet users, and social media was the principal reason for using the internet. Excessive internet users had increased symptoms of psychopathology, control-overprotection, rejection, anxious rearing, and decreased academic, emotional, social self-efficacy, and emotional warmth. Finally, the increased symptoms of psychopathology and parents' rejection were the predictive factors in excessive internet use. In conclusion, Greek adolescents participating in this study are susceptible to excessive internet use. Most importantly, rejection as a parental rearing practice and adolescents' psychopathology seemed to impact the development of addictive behavior and should be taken into consideration by future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new quadratic asymmetric error correction model that comprehensively accounts for both sign and size asymmetries. We also propose a test protocol that allows to rigorously identify different sources of long-run nonlinearity, namely quadratic nonlinearity, size asymmetry and sign asymmetry. We use a nonparametric residual recursive bootstrap technique to report p-values for the long-run tests. Simulation results confirm the consistency of our proposed estimator in finite samples and show that the bootstrapped tests have reasonably good size and power properties. Although our estimation of the Okun's Law for the USA confirms previous findings on the direction of the sign asymmetry, its reveals that the magnitude of the impact of economic downturns on unemployment decreases faster than the impact of upturns. Forecasting results show that our new model performs better than NARDL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using two waves of data from the Family Exchanges Study (2008 and 2013), this study examined changes in financial problems before and after the Great Recession and investigated the implications for adults' depressive symptoms and relationship quality with parents. Participants in established adulthood (N = 170, age 30–46 in 2013) provided information about their financial difficulties and depressive symptoms, as well as negative relationship quality with each parent (parent–child tie; N = 316) at baseline and 5 years later. Results showed that a growing number of participants experienced financial problems between the two waves, rising from 16 to 72% of participants. Moreover, 14% of participants indicated continuing financial problems and 33% reported decreased income over the 5 year observation period. Financial problems at baseline, continuing financial problems across the observation period, and decreased income over time were associated with participants' increased depressive symptoms, after controlling for their baseline depressive symptoms. Results from multilevel models also revealed that adult participants had more strained relationships with their parents if they experienced more financial problems at the follow-up interview. The harmful effect of financial problems on relationship quality with parents was partially explained by adult participants' depressive symptoms. Findings of this study highlight the important role of financial hardship for persons in established adulthood and their intergenerational ties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic is the most significant global crisis of its kind outside of wartime and the full impacts are still largely unknown. The path to economic recovery is impaired by the war on Ukraine. Many countries have either entered or are about to enter an economic recession. Now that many government support measures have expired or have been exhausted, it is unlikely that they will return at the same level. Many businesses are facing both a liquidity and a solvency crisis. This article considers the impact of these times of crisis and uncertainty on insolvency law-making across over 30 economies where the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development invests. It reflects on arguments raised by Menezes and Lawless in this volume and argues that national legislators should look to insolvency reforms (including in relation to digitalisation) to help their economies recover from recession and the economic shocks of the pandemic and the war on Ukraine, and work to improve the availability of insolvency data. Many international commentators have analysed the global crisis insolvency response from a developed economy perspective. This article focuses on the position in emerging economies, finding that, for a variety of reasons, insolvency was not at the forefront of the national emergency response for many emerging economies during the pandemic. It highlights some of the main deficiencies in insolvency frameworks and makes some suggestions for future policy-making for countries that want to strengthen the overall resilience of their insolvency systems, and financial restructuring processes in particular, to navigate future crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Guided by the Couples and Finances Theory (CFT; Archuleta, 2013) and using data from the Familial Response to Financial Instability Study (Dew & Xiao, 2011, 2013), the purpose of the current study was to explore how financial concerns, relationship happiness (and an interaction between these terms), and marital status (i.e., married or cohabiting) influence cash, credit, savings, and insurance financial management behaviors following the economic recession of 2007–2009. In general, financial concerns were related negatively to financial management behaviors, while relationship happiness was related positively to financial management behaviors. Relationship happiness also moderated the relationship between financial concerns and cash management behaviors. Specifically, for participants with high levels of financial concerns, each unit increase in relationship happiness was associated with an increase in cash management behaviors. Marital status was unrelated to financial management behaviors. These findings and potential implications are discussed in more detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sixth Assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with high confidence that most sandy coasts around the world will experience an increase in coastal erosion over the twenty-first century. An increase in long term coastal erosion (coastline recession) along sandy coasts can translate into massive socio-economic impacts, unless appropriate adaptation measures are implemented in the next few decades. To adequately inform adaptation measures, it is necessary to have a good understanding of the relative importance of the physical processes driving coastline recession, as well as of linkages between consideration (or not) of certain processes and the level of risk tolerance; understandings that are hitherto lacking. Here, we apply the multi-scale Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) model to two end-member sandy coastal types (swell dominated and storm dominated), to investigate where and when coastline recession projections are dominated by the differential contributions from Sea Level Rise (SLR) and storm erosion. Results show that SLR substantially increases the projected end-century recession at both types of coasts and that projected changes in the wave climate have only a marginal impact. An analysis of the Process Dominance Ratio (PDR), introduced here, shows that the dominance of storm erosion over SLR (and vice versa) on total recession by 2100 depends on both the type of the beach and the risk tolerance levels. For moderately risk-averse decisions (i.e. decisions accounting only for high exceedance probability recessions and hence do not account for very high amounts of potential recession—for example, the placement of temporary summer beach cabins), additional erosion due to SLR can be considered as the dominant driver of end-century recession at both types of beaches. However, for more risk-averse decisions that would typically account for higher potential recession (i.e. lower exceedance probability recessions), such as the placement of coastal infrastructure, multi-storey apartment buildings etc., storm erosion becomes the dominant process. The results of this study provide new insights on which physical processes need to be considered when and where in terms of numerical modelling efforts needed for supporting different management decisions, potentially enabling more streamlined and comprehensive assessments of the efficacy of coastal adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical research into the relationship between economic well-being and child outcomes has been limited by its cross-sectional nature, or its narrow focus on predominantly financial aspects of economic well-being. This article attempts to overcome these shortcomings by using data from the Growing Up in Ireland Cohort98 (age: 9–17; N = 5,748; female: 51.4%) and Cohort08 studies (age: 3–9 years; N = 7,208; female: 49.8%), which cover a period of large macroeconomic fluctuation (2007–2017). This fluctuation makes a robust fixed effects analysis feasible, allowing for economic well-being effects to be isolated by controlling for all time-invariant confounders. The article uses three different measures of economic well-being (subjective financial strain, material deprivation, income) to explore how distinct forms of economic well-being affect child behavior. The results suggest that household income is not related to behavioral difficulties, whereas subjective financial strain is predictive of externalized behavioral difficulties in adolescent boys. Material deprivation is predictive of externalized behavioral difficulties in adolescent boys and internalized behavioral difficulties in younger boys, but has no effect on girls' behavioral outcomes. The findings indicate that the relationship between economic well-being and child behavioral outcomes is complex, and requires multi-dimensional measures of economic well-being to accurately ascertain the different effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mozambique experienced important reductions in the poverty rate until recently, before two major natural disasters hit, an armed insurgency stroke in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, and the country started suffering from a hidden debt crisis with associated economic slowdown. As the last available national household expenditure survey is from 2014/15, just before these crises started unfolding, there is need for a poverty assessment based on alternative data sources. We study the evolution of multidimensional poverty in Mozambique using survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Using both the standard Alkire–Foster multidimensional poverty index and the first-order dominance (FOD) method, we find that the multidimensional poverty reduction trend observed between 2009–11 and 2015 halted between 2015 and 2018. Meanwhile, the number of poor people increased, mainly in rural areas and in the central provinces. Importantly, the poorest provinces did not improve their rankings over time, and between 2015 and 2018, no progress took place for most areas and provinces, as measured by the FOD approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The knowledge-based economies have reacted by enacting stringent legislation and encouraging innovation in environmental-related technologies (IERTs) across organizations, such as academic institutions. Although previous research continues to support green innovation as a pro-cyclical concept, the irregular effect of IERT dynamics on CO2e in knowledge-based economies has not yet been studied. The paper looks at the cyclical nexus between IERT and CO2e in 37 knowledge-based economies using panel data from 1990 to 2019. The augmented mean group supported that an adverse change in IERT contributes to CO2e during economic downturns. Second, the findings confirmed that positive dynamics in IERT reduces CO2e during economic expansions. Third, the findings signified that trade openness, expansionary commercial policy, gross domestic product per capita, and expansionary monetary policy all increase CO2e, while contractionary commercial policy and use of renewable energy all decrease CO2e. Overall, the results of this study showed that there is a counter-cyclical association between IERT and CO2e. It is suggested that to reduce CO2e in knowledge-based economies, the government should support IERT in both economic contraction and expansion periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the factors that affect the duration of economic downturns using data for growth (acceleration) cycles for 13 industrialised countries over the period 1950–2018. Our findings show that downturn periods die of old age. We also find that when trading partners are in a downturn, the duration of a country's downturn is likely to be shorter, a likely outcome of common stabilisation mechanisms or terms of trade changes. Additionally, more open economies are found to experience shorter downturn periods and European Union countries show a higher level of synchronisation than the others. Lastly, trade linkages are found to intensify acceleration cycle synchronisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional meaning of ecological efficiency generally considers only the ratio of economic output to environmental input. This paper expands the meaning and the evaluation system of ecological efficiency from the perspective of improving people's livelihoods. Not only are the discharge of wastewater, waste gas, and solid waste included in the undesired output, but the output index also takes full account of the overall development of the economy, innovation, society and the environment from the perspective of high-quality development. Under the assumption of variable returns to scale, a super-efficiency slack-based measure model based on the undesirable output and Malmquist index is introduced to measure the spatial and temporal variation of ecological efficiency of Zhejiang Province in China, and the panel Tobit method is used to study the key factors affecting ecological efficiency. The results include the four following findings: (1) In the past 12 years, the ecological efficiency of Zhejiang Province has steadily increased, except in 2019 and 2020, when seven cities in Zhejiang Province experienced a decline or near stagnation due to the impact of the economic slowdown and the COVID-19 epidemic. (2) The ecological efficiency of Zhejiang demonstrates a severe regional imbalance, showing a high level in the northeast and a low level in the southwest. (3) Malmquist index analysis shows that the improvement of ecological efficiency in Zhejiang Province has shifted from mainly relying on the dual drivers of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency in the early stage to relying on technological progress in the later stage. (4) Tobit regression analysis shows that industrialization structure, Theil index, and traffic activity have a significant positive effect on ecological efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]