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Food insecurity, defined as the lack of physical or economic access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food, remains one of the main challenges included in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Near real-time data on the food insecurity situation collected by international organizations such as the World Food Programme can be crucial to monitor and forecast time trends of insufficient food consumption levels in countries at risk. Here, using food consumption observations in combination with secondary data on conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks, we build a forecasting model based on gradient boosted regression trees to create predictions on the evolution of insufficient food consumption trends up to 30 days in to the future in 6 countries (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mali, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen). Results show that the number of available historical observations is a key element for the forecasting model performance. Among the 6 countries studied in this work, for those with the longest food insecurity time series, that is Syria and Yemen, the proposed forecasting model allows to forecast the prevalence of people with insufficient food consumption up to 30 days into the future with higher accuracy than a naive approach based on the last measured prevalence only. The framework developed in this work could provide decision makers with a tool to assess how the food insecurity situation will evolve in the near future in countries at risk. Results clearly point to the added value of continuous near real-time data collection at sub-national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent literature on the mental health consequences of social distancing measures has found a substantial increase in self-reported sleep disorders, anxiety and depressive symptoms during lockdown periods. We investigate this issue with data on monthly purchases of psychotropic drugs from the universe of Italian pharmacies during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and find that purchases of mental health-related drugs have increased with respect to 2019. However, the excess volumes do not match the massive increase in anxiety and depressive disorders found in survey-based studies. We also study the interplay between mobility, measured with anonymized mobile phone data, and mental health and report no significant effect of mobility restrictions on antidepressants and anxiolytics purchases during 2020. We provide three potential mechanisms that could drive the discrepancy between self-reported mental health surveys and psychotropic drugs prescription registries: (1) stockpiling practices in the early phases of the pandemic; (2) the adoption of compensatory behavior and (3) unexpressed and unmet needs due to both demand- and supply-side shortages in healthcare services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantify social media user engagement with low-credibility online news media sources using a simple and intuitive methodology, that we showcase with an empirical case study of the Twitter debate on immigration in Italy. By assigning the Twitter users an Untrustworthiness (U) score based on how frequently they engage with unreliable media outlets and cross-checking it with a qualitative political annotation of the communities, we show that such information consumption is not equally distributed across the Twitter users. Indeed, we identify clusters characterised by a very high presence of accounts that frequently share content from less reliable news sources. The users with high U are more keen to interact with bot-like accounts that tend to inject more unreliable content into the network and to retweet that content. Thus, our methodology applied to this real-world network provides evidence, in an easy and straightforward way, that there is strong interplay between accounts that display higher bot-like activity and users more focused on news from unreliable sources and that this influences the diffusion of this information across the network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the International Monetary Fund as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions," is a key topic in financial stability studies and macroprudential policy-making. In this context, the complex web of interconnections of the interbank market plays the crucial role of allowing funding liquidity shortages to propagate between financial institutions. Here, we introduce a simple yet effective model of the interbank market in which liquidity shortages propagate through an epidemic-like contagion mechanism on the network of interbank loans. The model is defined by using aggregate balance sheet information of European banks, and it exploits country and bank-specific risk features to account for the heterogeneity of financial institutions. Moreover, in order to obtain the European-wide topology of the interbank network, we define a block reconstruction method based on the exchange flows between the various countries. We show that the proposed contagion model is able to estimate systemic liquidity risk across different years and countries. Results suggest that our effective contagion approach can be successfully used as a viable alternative to more realistic but complicated models, which not only require more specific balance sheet variables with high time resolution but also need assumptions on how banks respond to liquidity shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring close proximity interactions between individuals can provide key information on social contacts in human communities and related behaviours. This is even more essential in rural settings in low- and middle-income countries where there is a need to understand contact patterns for the implementation of strategies for social protection interventions. We report the quantitative assessment of contact patterns in a village in rural Malawi, based on proximity sensors technology that allows for high-resolution measurements of social contacts. Our results revealed that the community structure of the village was highly correlated with the household membership of the individuals, thus confirming the importance of the family ties within the village. Social contacts within households occurred mainly between adults and children, and adults and adolescents and most of the inter-household social relationships occurred among adults and among adolescents. At the individual level, age and gender social assortment were observed in the inter-household network, and age disassortativity was instead observed in intra-household networks. Moreover, we obtained a clear trend of the daily contact activity of the village. Family members congregated in the early morning, during lunch time and dinner time. In contrast, inter-household contact activity displayed a growth from the morning, reaching a maximum in the afternoon. The proximity sensors technology used in this study provided high resolution temporal data characterized by timescales comparable with those intrinsic to social dynamics and it thus allowed to have access to the level of information needed to understand the social context of the village. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The establishment of new collaborations among scientists fertilizes the scientific environment, fostering novel discoveries. Understanding the dynamics driving the development of scientific collaborations is thus crucial to characterize the structure and evolution of science. In this work, we leverage the information included in publication records and reconstruct a categorical multiplex networks to improve the prediction of new scientific collaborations. Specifically, we merge different bibliographic sources to quantify the prediction potential of scientific credit, represented by citations, and common interests, measured by the usage of common keywords. We compare several link prediction algorithms based on different dyadic and triadic interactions among scientists, including a recently proposed metric that fully exploits the multiplex representation of scientific networks. Our work paves the way for a deeper understanding of the dynamics driving scientific collaborations, and validates a new algorithm that can be readily applied to link prediction in systems represented as multiplex networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The always increasing mobile connectivity affects every aspect of our daily lives, including how and when we keep ourselves informed and consult news media. By studying a DPI (deep packet inspection) dataset, provided by one of the major Chilean telecommunication companies, we investigate how different cohorts of the population of Santiago De Chile consume news media content through their smartphones. We find that some socio-demographic attributes are highly associated to specific news media consumption patterns. In particular, education and age play a significant role in shaping the consumers behaviour even in the digital context, in agreement with a large body of literature on off-line media distribution channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The original article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00342-w EPJ Data Science (2022) 11:29 https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00342-w After publication of this article [[1]], the authors reported that the reference to [37] in the Discussion, seventh paragraph, third bullet, should instead have referred to [35, 36]. References 1 Vilella S, Semeraro A, Paolotti D, Ruffo G. Measuring user engagement with low credibility media sources in a controversial online debate. [Extracted from the article]