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As Arctic sea ice continues to retreat, the seasonally navigable Arctic expected by mid-century or earlier is likely to facilitate the growth of polar maritime and coastal development. Here, we systematically explore the potentials for opening of trans-Arctic sea routes across a range of emissions futures and multi-model ensembles on daily timescales. We find a new Transpolar Sea Route in the western Arctic for open water vessels starting in 2045 in addition to the central Arctic corridor over the North Pole, with its frequency comparable to the latter during the 2070s under the worst-case scenario. The emergence of this new western route could be decisive for operational and strategic outcomes. Specifically, the route redistributes transits away from the Russian-administered Northern Sea Route, lowering the navigational and financial risks and the regulatory friction. Navigational risks arise from narrow straits that are often icy choke points. Financial risks arise from the substantial interannual sea ice variability and associated uncertainty. Regulatory friction arises from Russian requirements imposed under the Polar Code and Article 234 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. These imposts are significantly reduced with shipping route regimes that enable open water transits wholly outside Russian territorial waters, and these regimes are revealed most accurately using daily ice information. The near-term navigability transition period (2025–2045) may offer an opportunity for maritime policy evaluation, revision, and action. Our user-inspired evaluation contributes towards achieving operational, economic and geopolitical objectives and serves the goal of planning a resilient, sustainable, and adaptive Arctic future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 17 sustainable development goals and their 169 targets comprise a comprehensive list of prerequisites for human and planetary well-being, but they also implicitly invoke many of the very trade-offs, synergies, and parallelisms that drive global crises. Decision-makers are familiar with these internal conflicts, and there is no shortage of frameworks, blueprints, and roadmaps to accelerate sustainability. However, thus far, inevitable trade-offs among competing priorities for sustainability are not catalyzing the types of transformations called for, indeed, demanded, by the SDGs. Habitual technocratic approaches, which the SDG lend themselves to, will report on indicators and targets, but will not adequately represent the ambitions of the goals themselves. Addressing these habitual tendencies, this paper therefore considers the inner dimensions of transformation, including emotions and meaning-making. Music offers a rich source of metaphor to reimagine interconnections and communicates affectively the feelings and embodied dimensions of intellectual thought and creativity. We draw on Western musical composition and history to offer insights on an intellectual path-dependency leading up to the current disembodied indicator-based management and regulation of global environmental and societal crises, and on potential alternatives. As metaphors, we consider what the SDGs might 'sound like' as either 12-tone, contrapuntal, or improvisational expression. We suggest that for the SDGs to release their transformative potential, 'sustainability improvisers' with a handle on both the 'what' and the 'how' of transformation are needed: harnessed with deep understanding of SDG indicators and targets, but with an ability to listen deeply and invite others to co-create transformative pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct and indirect effects of global emissions of black carbon (BC) on the evolution of Arctic climate has been well documented. The significance of within-Arctic emissions of BC is less certain. In light of this, an ensemble of scenarios are developed that simulate the hypothetical diversion of 75% of current and projected shipping traffic from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This experiment shows that BC from ships results in a small change in climate forcing that does not influence the Arctic-wide trajectory of change. However, the shift in forcing from the Suez route to the NSR not only influences regional evolution of sea ice cover, but also results in regional feedbacks that in some locations amplify (e.g. Greenland Sea) and in other locations damp (e.g. Labrador Sea) the sea ice retreat under anthropogenic climate change. The primary mechanism underlying these regional effects is a shift in circulation rather than direct thermodynamic forcing. The most significant impacts are distal from the emissions sources, which is likely to have policy implications as the expansion of industrial and transportation activities into the Arctic is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expectation of a seasonally ice-free Arctic expected by mid-century has sparked economic and geopolitical interest in potential Arctic opportunities and risks. But substantial sea ice variability across timescales suggests an uncertain future for forecasts of marine accessibility, especially over operational (< 2 years) and infrastructural (> 5 years) time spans that significantly influence decision-makers planning ship routing, emergency management, port investment, and more. Here, we use three marine accessibility schemes applied to CMIP6 scenarios to quantify Arctic shipping season variability and uncertainty across these decision-relevant timescales. We compare route projections across climate models and accessibility schemes to show that the choice of methodology significantly affects information important for decision-making. We find high variability and uncertainty in voyage time notably in the critical “shoulder” seasons on both timescales. This leads to increased risk over the next several decades, with high short-term uncertainty particularly at the end of the shipping season for the next 25 years. Navigation risk is expected to decline from 2045 onward. Knowledge that accounts for sea ice variability, simulation quality, and accessibility algorithm allows for better investment decisions and the minimization of unforeseen costs due to delayed and canceled voyages. Here we develop and demonstrate a framework for developing more timely and salient information to guide decisions on Arctic shipping relevant to both operational and infrastructural horizons as climate projections become spatially and physically better resolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integration, a widely promoted response to the multi-scale complexities of social-environmental sustainability, is diversely and sometimes poorly conceptualized. In this paper we explore integrative governance, which we define as an iterative and contextual process for negotiating and advancing the common interest. We ground this definition in a discussion of institutional factors conditioning integrative governance of environmental water in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. The Murray-Darling Basin is an iconic system of social-ecological complexity, evocative of large-scale conservation challenges in other developed arid river basins. Our critical assessment of integrative governance practices in that context emerges through analysis of interviews with policy participants and documents pertaining to environmental water management in the tri-state area of southwestern New South Wales, northwestern Victoria, and the South Australian Riverland. We identify four linked challenges: (i) decision support for developing socially robust environmental water management goals, (ii) resource constraints on adaptive practice, (iii) inter-state differences in participatory decision-making and devolution of authority, and (iv) representative inclusion in decision-making. Our appraisal demonstrates these as pivotal challenges for integrative governance in the common interest. We conclude by offering a perspective on the potential for supporting integrative governance through the bridging capacity of Australia's Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographic information systems are a means to develop a common framework for the integration of a range of perspectives into natural resources management decisions. The incorporation of these perspectives presents more than a technical challenge-diverse knowledge systems make demands on the structure of geodatabases, the ways in which data are collected, held and interrogated, and the choices around which types of knowledge can and should be incorporated. Here, we investigate these questions in the context of Indigenous Yorta Yorta knowledge contributions to the management of a sensitive region of the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Management of the Barmah-Millewa region and its natural resources is governed by a wide array of sometimes inconsistent policies with differing regulatory frameworks and management foci. We find that (1) appropriate collection, management and database design protocols require substantive intellectual property protections and (2) once in place, spatial analysis can support management decisions without revealing sensitive information. Importantly, these protocols support the effective and respectful participation of the Yorta Yorta community in management of this ecologically, economically and culturally important region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's Murray-Darling Basin exemplifies complex governance challenges raised by large-scale trans-boundary river systems. The Basin contains a varied and fragmentary mosaic of human perspectives and practices, situated in a dynamic biophysical system that accounts for a significant portion of Australia's agricultural produce and is home to diverse and iconic ecosystems. Severe drought, high river-flow variability, and persistent ecosystem degradation have been impetus for water policy reforms culminating in the highly contested 2012 Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We analyzed public-record content from opinion editorials and speeches by policy elites, 2010-2012, to examine public discourses and discourse coalitions associated with development of the Plan. We focus on three domains of discourse: definition of problems, promotion of solutions, and assertions of fact. Discourses illustrated divergent, exclusionary, and largely un-reconciled perspectives about how water resources should be managed, as well as how plural interests should be represented in decision-making. We identify discourse coalition-linked narrative scripts, develop an understanding of constitutive dynamics relevant to ongoing processes of policy development and implementation, and discuss implications for adaptive governance of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Letter to the Editor [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Murray-Darling Basin is Australia's national food bowl, home to almost half of the national income from food production, as well as internationally significant wetlands, iconic red gum forests, endangered flora and fauna, and approximately 40 autonomous indigenous nations. Persistent severe drought and extreme flooding episodes have presented new challenges in the region. Chief among these challenges is the establishment of a legitimate framework to sustainably manage water resources that finds common ground between environmental, indigenous and commercial interests. A powerful approach to examine these processes is through the theory of diffusion and adaptation of policy innovations. Here, we describe an approach to place this theory on empirical ground using Q methodology. We elucidate patterns of subjectivity, to explore the perceptions of expert advice, subsidiarity and local knowledge to better understand the interests in play. We find that respect is held for local practitioners (water managers and farmers) and indigenous knowledge, but while policy innovations are being generated, the diffusion of policy is contested. We identify the potential, though limited, for common ground through substantive and respectful consultation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Murray-Darling Basin incorporates Australia's three longest rivers and spans four states and one territory. It is important for an agricultural industry worth more than AUS$9 billion per year, but is also the life source and the spirit of the Indigenous Yorta Yorta people. Here, we address whether the interests of the Yorta Yorta people can encompass the common interest of the wider community in the Basin, and how the colonial legacy and climate change of the past century continue to influence the realization of the common interest moving forward. We find that shared regional governance with an agreed outcome supports the ongoing sustainability of the country and its people, but because of the legal history of Australia since colonization, recognition and mutual respect are no less important. Further, we note that the increasing climatic variability and changing climatic mechanisms that now exemplify the southeast of Australia corroborates the need for adaptive planning with longer time horizons. These lessons are supported by the customary law and practice of the Yorta Yorta people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An editorial is presented on the role of indigenous communities on the future of policy sciences, with a focus on culturally based strategies for human rights, sustainability, biodiversity management, and self-determination. Topics include poverty prevention for indigenous peoples, traditional environmental knowledge, and the interaction of humans with the environment.

The threats of climate change and the trade-offs between extractions and flows are examined for the Colorado, the Murray, the Orange and the Yellow Rivers. In all four basins, and over a long period of time, outflows have greatly reduced as a direct result of increased water extractions. Although climate change will aggravate hydrological impacts on river systems, currently high levels of water extractions remain the principal contributor to reduced system flows. Changes in governance, including sharing the variability between the environment and consumers, are urgently required if the health of these rivers is to be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Weight and dietary monitoring have been associated with better weight loss outcomes among dieters using lifestyle modification, but they have rarely been studied among gastric bypass surgery patients. This exploratory study examined dietary and weight self-monitoring behaviors and their association with weight outcomes in a sample of gastric bypass patients who were at least 12 months post-surgery. Methods: A convenience sample of 32 female and 5 male patients living in Upstate New York was recruited through support group list-servs. The participants completed an anonymous on-line survey about their weight histories, surgical histories, current weights, dietary monitoring practices, weight monitoring practices, and demographic characteristics. Measures were developed to assess frequency of monitoring behaviors (recording food intake, mentally tracking food, weighing/measuring foods, and self-weighing). Weight loss outcomes, based on self-reported weights, were current body mass index (BMI), percent excess BMI lost, and percent weight loss maintained. Results: Mean pre-surgical BMI was 49.5 ± 6.6. The participants were at an average of 32 months post-surgery with a BMI 31.2 ± 6.6. They maintained 89.2 ± 14.1 % of their weight loss and 76.3 ± 26.0 % excess BMI was lost. Higher scores for dietary monitoring behaviors, being unmarried, and lower pre-surgery BMI were associated with lower current BMI and greater excess BMI lost when controlling for age, sex, and time since surgery. Conclusions: This study yielded constructs, measures, and relationships that warrant further examination in a larger sample of gastric bypass patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to integrate scientific knowledge from a variety of disciplines with local experience to describe, contextually and in detail, the impact of flood events on the community of the Alpine Shire and current mitigation efforts to alleviate and reduce these impacts. The Myrtleford Floodplain Management Study was the cornerstone of the strategy to address the goal of reducing flood damage in the community. It was found that the most consequential deficiencies in the Myrtleford flood mitigation scheme decision process are related to flaws in four elements of the process: the articulation of goals; the development of appropriate knowledge support; the effectiveness of promotion; and the ability to move from invocation to application. The Alpine Shire can be used as a microcosm that can represent adaptation challenges in other communities to climate change and extreme events. This research contributes to the development of the conceptual and analytical framework of integrated assessments, while making concrete contributions to the development of adaptive policies in Alpine Shire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human dimensions research focuses on the interrelationships between humans and the environment. To date, human dimensions research in arctic regions has concentrated primarily on local events and contexts. As such, it complements analysis elsewhere of adaptation and sustainable development within broad institutional, social, and environmental contexts. This paper reviews five projects from the Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) initiative, established by the US National Science Foundation in 1997. Common themes and findings are highlighted: climatic variations or change affect societies through interactions with human activities; population dynamics provide key quantitative indicators of social impacts and well being; and specific impacts and responses are the result of complex, context-sensitive interactions. Congruent approaches to the challenges of interdisciplinary research are also identified: multivariate time plots aid the integration of data, retrospective and prospective studies are part of a continuum and reinforce one another, comparative studies are essential for understanding general principles of human dimensions, and arctic residents can play a vital role in research and action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intensive approach to Barrow, Alaska's adaptations to climate change and variability during recent decades suggests reconsideration of the interconnected roles of science, policy, and decision-making structures. First, profound uncertainties are inherent in unique interactions among the many natural and human factors affecting Barrow's vulnerability. Science cannot significantly reduce these uncertainties through extensive approaches, but intensive approaches can reconstruct and update local trends, clarify the underlying dynamics, and harvest experience for policy purposes. Second, sound policies to reduce Barrow's vulnerability to coastal erosion and flooding must incorporate these profound uncertainties and the multiple values of the community. Minimizing vulnerability to climate change is only one of the community's interests, and must compete with other interests for limited time, attention, funds and other resources. Third, the community itself is in the best position to understand its own context, to decide on sound policies, and to take responsibility for those decisions. In short, local context matters in science, policy, and decision-making structures for adaptation to climate change and variability. Overall, cognitive constraints may be the most important human dimension of climate change. Factoring the global problem into more tractable local problems would make the most of our cognitive capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research we examined the influence of athletic roles upon the perceived gender role orientations of male and female athletes. Participants were 148 students who read a bogus newspaper article that described either a male or female athlete who had successfully competed in an athletic event. The type of sport (football, basketball, and cheerleading) was manipulated. Female football players and basketball players were perceived as higher in agency than female cheerleaders. Male cheerleaders were perceived as higher in communality than male football players and male basketball players. Participants made external attributions concerning the motivations of athletes who competed in gender traditional sports. They made internal attributions concerning the motivations of athletes who competed in gender nontraditional sports. These findings are examined in relation to social role theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

September open water fraction in the Arctic is analyzed using the satellite era record of ice concentration (1979-2017). Evidence is presented that three breakpoints (shifts in the mean) occurred in the Pacific sector, with higher amounts of open water starting in 1989, 2002, and 2007. Breakpoints in the Atlantic sector record of open water are evident in 1971 in longer records, and around 2000 and 2011. Multiple breakpoints are also evident in the Canadian and Russian halves. Statistical models that use detected breakpoints of the Pacific and Atlantic sectors, as well as models with breakpoints in the Canadian and Russian halves and the Arctic as a whole, outperform linear trend models in fitting the data. From a physical standpoint, the results support the thesis that Arctic sea ice may have critical points beyond which a return to the previous state is less likely. From an analysis standpoint, the findings imply that de-meaning the data using the breakpoint means is less likely to cause spurious signals than employing a linear detrend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]