1. Ensemble of CMIP6 derived reference and potential evapotranspiration with radiative and advective components.
- Author
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Bjarke, Nels, Barsugli, Joseph, and Livneh, Ben
- Subjects
VAPOR pressure ,CLIMATE research ,EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ,REGIONAL differences ,ADVECTION - Abstract
Assessing changes in future aridity requires an understanding of variations in the atmospheric demand for water. Such assessments are often driven by estimations of potential evapotranspiration (ET
P ) and/or reference evapotranspiration (ET0 ), yet no comprehensive and validated estimate of these climate metrics exists to date from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). Here we describe the development and validation of a published dataset of global monthly estimates of the Penman-Monteith derived ET0 , its advective and radiation components, Priestley-Taylor derived ETP , and vapor pressure deficit from 16 CMIP6 projections and four emissions scenarios. Historical validation of the ensemble of CMIP6 evaporative demand shows general agreement with observationally-derived baselines of ET0 and ETP from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA5-Land reanalysis products, with GCM biases driven primarily by regional differences in modeled humidity and advective contributions to ET0 . Overall, evaporative demand is projected to increase across all emissions scenarios, with the largest increases over polar regions, and with a larger contribution from advection particularly for regions with higher baseline ET0 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2023
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