1. Machine learning-based very short-term load forecasting in microgrid environment: evaluating the impact of high penetration of PV systems.
- Author
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Rafati, Amir, Joorabian, Mahmood, Mashhour, Elaheh, and Shaker, Hamid Reza
- Subjects
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ELECTRICAL load , *MICROGRIDS , *SOLAR energy , *FORECASTING , *DEMAND forecasting , *SOLAR panels - Abstract
With the emergence of smart grids, accurate very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) has become a crucial tool for competitive energy markets. The number of behind-the-meter photovoltaic solar panels, which usually are not monitored are increasing. This could reduce the load visibility and also affects the VSTLF accuracy. While most of the research works focus on demand forecasting of large areas, the performance of VSTLF methods for the future scenario of high solar power penetration in the microgrid environment is unclear. This paper investigates the impact of high solar power integration on the forecasting accuracy of machine learning VSTLF models for microgrids. The performance of Neural Network, Support Vector Regression are evaluated for high penetration scenario and no solar penetration. The accuracy of these models is examined for three different forecasting horizons through various comparative experiments for two real-world microgrid datasets. According to simulation results, using the most relevant variables is highly recommended. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that machine-learning methods can tackle the nonlinear characteristics of net load forecasting as well as total load forecasting. These simulations show that high penetration of solar power generation could not significantly affect the accuracy of machine learning VSTLF if most relevant variables are selected and applied as model inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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