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Many decision-making theories are encoded in a class of processes known as evidence accumulation models (EAM). These assume that noisy evidence stochastically accumulates until a set threshold is reached, triggering a decision. One of the most successful and widely used of this class is the Diffusion Decision Model (DDM). The DDM however is limited in scope and does not account for processes such as evidence leakage, changes of evidence, or time varying caution. More complex EAMs can encode a wider array of hypotheses, but are currently limited by computational challenges. In this work, we develop the Python package PyBEAM (Bayesian Evidence Accumulation Models) to fill this gap. Toward this end, we develop a general probabilistic framework for predicting the choice and response time distributions for a general class of binary decision models. In addition, we have heavily computationally optimized this modeling process and integrated it with PyMC, a widely used Python package for Bayesian parameter estimation. This 1) substantially expands the class of EAM models to which Bayesian methods can be applied, 2) reduces the computational time to do so, and 3) lowers the entry fee for working with these models. Here we demonstrate the concepts behind this methodology, its application to parameter recovery for a variety of models, and apply it to a recently published data set to demonstrate its practical use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early March 2020, two crises emerged: the COVID-19 public health crisis and a corresponding economic crisis resulting from business closures and skyrocketing job losses. While the link between socioeconomic status and infectious disease is well-documented, the psychological relationships among economic considerations, such as financial constraint and economic anxiety, and health considerations, such as perceptions of disease spread and preventative actions, is not well understood. Despite past research illustrating the strong link between financial fragility and a wide range of behaviors, surprisingly little research has examined the psychological relationship between the economic crisis and beliefs and behaviors related to the co-occurring health crisis. We show that financial constraint predicts people's beliefs about both their personal risk of infection and the national spread of the virus as well as their social distancing behavior. In addition, we compare the predictive utility of financial constraint to two other commonly studied factors: political partisanship and local disease severity. We also show that negative affect partially mediates the relationship between financial constraint and COVID-19 beliefs and social distancing behaviors. These results suggest the economic crisis created by COVID-19 spilled over into people's beliefs about the health crisis and their behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context effects in multi-alternative, multi-attribute choice are widely documented, but often elusive. We show that this elusiveness can arise in part from the way that choices are presented. To illustrate this, we use a modeling framework to predict how changes to the format of attribute values, specifically the commensurability of attribute values, influences attention allocation and consequently context effects. Guided by this framework, we show in two online choice experiments (total N = 954 adults) that manipulating the commensurability of attributes leads to different patterns of context effects. Robust attraction and compromise effects are found when attributes are incommensurable (e.g., CPU speed in GHz and RAM memory in GB, or quality ratings on different scales), and mostly null effects occur when attributes are commensurable (e.g., quality ratings on the same scale). Our findings show how the format of choice information can substantially alter the integration of that information and resulting choice patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clustering of membrane-bound proteins facilitates their transport by cortical actin flow in early Caenorhabditis elegans embryo cell polarity. PAR-3 clustering is critical for this process, yet the biophysical processes that couple protein clusters to cortical flow remain unknown. We develop a discrete, stochastic agent-based model of protein clustering and test four hypothetical models for how clusters may interact with the flow. Results show that the canonical way to assess transport characteristics from single-particle tracking data used thus far in this area, the Péclet number, is insufficient to distinguish these hypotheses and that all models can account for transport characteristics quantified by this measure. However, using this model, we demonstrate that these different cluster–cortex interactions may be distinguished using a different metric, namely the scalar projection of cluster displacement on to the flow displacement vector. Our results thus provide a testable way to use existing single-particle tracking data to test how endogenous protein clusters may interact with the cortical flow to localize during polarity establishment. To facilitate this investigation, we also develop both improved simulation and semi-analytic methodologies to quantify motion summary statistics (e.g., Péclet number and scalar projection) for these stochastic models as a function of biophysical parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence accumulation models have been one of the most dominant modeling frameworks used to study rapid decision-making over the past several decades. These models propose that evidence accumulates from the environment until the evidence for one alternative reaches some threshold, typically associated with caution, triggering a response. However, researchers have recently begun to reconsider the fundamental assumptions of how caution varies with time. In the past, it was typically assumed that levels of caution are independent of time. Recent investigations have however suggested the possibility that levels of caution decrease over time and that this strategy provides more efficient performance under certain conditions. Our study provides the first comprehensive assessment of this newer class of models accounting for time-varying caution to determine how robustly their parameters can be estimated. We assess five overall variants of collapsing threshold/urgency signal models based on the diffusion decision model, linear ballistic accumulator model, and urgency gating model frameworks. We find that estimation of parameters, particularly those associated with caution/urgency modulation are most robust for the linearly collapsing threshold diffusion model followed by an urgency-gating model with a leakage process. All other models considered, particularly those with ballistic accumulation or nonlinear thresholds, are unable to recover their own parameters adequately, making their usage in parameter estimation contexts questionable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probability density approximation (PDA) is a nonparametric method of calculating probability densities. When integrated into Bayesian estimation, it allows researchers to fit psychological processes for which analytic probability functions are unavailable, significantly expanding the scope of theories that can be quantitatively tested. PDA is, however, computationally intensive, requiring large numbers of Monte Carlo simulations in order to attain good precision. We introduce Parallel PDA (pPDA), a highly efficient implementation of this method utilizing the Armadillo C++ and CUDA C libraries to conduct millions of model simulations simultaneously in graphics processing units (GPUs). This approach provides a practical solution for rapidly approximating probability densities with high precision. In addition to demonstrating this method, we fit a piecewise linear ballistic accumulator model (Holmes, Trueblood, & Heathcote, 2016) to empirical data. Finally, we conducted simulation studies to investigate various issues associated with PDA and provide guidelines for pPDA applications to other complex cognitive models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most data analyses rely on models. To complement statistical models, psychologists have developed cognitive models, which translate observed variables into psychologically interesting constructs. Response time models, in particular, assume that response time and accuracy are the observed expression of latent variables including 1) ease of processing, 2) response caution, 3) response bias, and 4) non-decision time. Inferences about these psychological factors, hinge upon the validity of the models' parameters. Here, we use a blinded, collaborative approach to assess the validity of such model-based inferences. Seventeen teams of researchers analyzed the same 14 data sets. In each of these two-condition data sets, we manipulated properties of participants' behavior in a two-alternative forced choice task. The contributing teams were blind to the manipulations, and had to infer what aspect of behavior was changed using their method of choice. The contributors chose to employ a variety of models, estimation methods, and inference procedures. Our results show that, although conclusions were similar across different methods, these "modeler's degrees of freedom" did affect their inferences. Interestingly, many of the simpler approaches yielded as robust and accurate inferences as the more complex methods. We recommend that, in general, cognitive models become a typical analysis tool for response time data. In particular, we argue that the simpler models and procedures are sufficient for standard experimental designs. We finish by outlining situations in which more complicated models and methods may be necessary, and discuss potential pitfalls when interpreting the output from response time models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the cognitive processes involved in multi-alternative, multi-attribute choice is of interest to a wide range of fields including psychology, neuroscience, and economics. Prior investigations in this domain have relied primarily on choice data to compare different theories. Despite numerous such studies, results have largely been inconclusive. Our study uses state-of-the-art response-time modeling and data from 12 different experiments appearing in six different published studies to compare four previously proposed theories/models of these effects: multi-alternative decision field theory (MDFT), the leaky-competing accumulator (LCA), the multi-attribute linear ballistic accumulator (MLBA), and the associative accumulation model (AAM). All four models are, by design, dynamic process models and thus a comprehensive evaluation of their theoretical properties requires quantitative evaluation with both choice and response-time data. Our results show that response-time data is critical at distinguishing among these models and that using choice data alone can lead to inconclusive results for some datasets. In conclusion, we encourage future research to include response-time data in the evaluation of these models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most past research on sequential sampling models of decision-making have assumed a time homogeneous process (i.e., parameters such as drift rates and boundaries are constant and do not change during the deliberation process). This has largely been due to the theoretical difficulty in testing and fitting more complex models. In recent years, the development of simulation-based modeling approaches matched with Bayesian fitting methodologies has opened the possibility of developing more complex models such as those with time-varying properties. In the present work, we discuss a piecewise variant of the well-studied diffusion decision model (termed pDDM) that allows evidence accumulation rates to change during the deliberation process. Given the complex, time-varying nature of this model, standard Bayesian parameter estimation methodologies cannot be used to fit the model. To overcome this, we apply a recently developed simulation-based, hierarchal Bayesian methodology called the probability density approximation (PDA) method. We provide an analysis of this methodology and present results of parameter recovery experiments to demonstrate the strengths and limitations of this approach. With those established, we fit pDDM to data from a perceptual experiment where information changes during the course of trials. This extensible modeling platform opens the possibility of applying sequential sampling models to a range of complex non-stationary decision tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Training individuals to make accurate decisions from medical images is a critical component of education in diagnostic pathology. We describe a joint experimental and computational modeling approach to examine the similarities and differences in the cognitive processes of novice participants and experienced participants (pathology residents and pathology faculty) in cancer cell image identification. For this study we collected a bank of hundreds of digital images that were identified by cell type and classified by difficulty by a panel of expert hematopathologists. The key manipulations in our study included examining the speed-accuracy tradeoff as well as the impact of prior expectations on decisions. In addition, our study examined individual differences in decision-making by comparing task performance to domain general visual ability (as measured using the Novel Object Memory Test (NOMT) (Richler et al. Cognition 166:42-55, 2017). Using signal detection theory and the diffusion decision model (DDM), we found many similarities between experts and novices in our task. While experts tended to have better discriminability, the two groups responded similarly to time pressure (i.e., reduced caution under speed instructions in the DDM) and to the introduction of a probabilistic cue (i.e., increased response bias in the DDM). These results have important implications for training in this area as well as using novice participants in research on medical image perception and decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]