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Purpose: Transcription factor 3 (TCF3) encodes 2 transcription factors generated by alternative splicing, E12 and E47, which contribute to early lymphocyte differentiation. In humans, autosomal dominant (AD) E47 transcription factor deficiency is an inborn error of immunity characterized by B-cell deficiency and agammaglobulinemia. Only the recurrent de novo p.E555K pathogenic variant has been associated with this disease and acts via a dominant-negative (DN) mechanism. In this study, we describe the first Asian patient with agammaglobulinemia caused by the TCF3 p.E555K variant and provide insights into the structure and function of this variant. Methods: TCF3 variant was identified by inborn errors of immunity-related gene panel sequencing. The variant E555K was characterized by alanine scanning of the E47 basic region and comprehensive mutational analysis focused on position 555. Results: The patient was a 25-year-old male with B-cell deficiency, agammaglobulinemia, and mild facial dysmorphic features. We confirmed the diagnosis of AD E47 transcription factor deficiency by identifying a heterozygous missense variant, c.1663 G>A; p.E555K, in TCF3. Alanine scanning of the E47 basic region revealed the structural importance of position 555. Comprehensive mutational analysis focused on position 555 showed that only the glutamate-to-lysine substitution had a strong DN effect. 3D modeling demonstrated that this variant not only abolished hydrogen bonds involved in protein‒DNA interactions, but also inverted the charge on the surface of the E47 protein. Conclusions: Our study reveals the causative mutation hotspot in the TCF3 DN variant and highlights the weak negative selection associated with the TCF3 gene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors of Pakistan's economy. The real marginal cost—derived from dynamic translog cost function—labour share of income and output gap are the indicators of economic activity along with past and expected inflation to determine inflation dynamics in each sector. The estimates of the structural parameters of the NKPC are consistent with economic theory in most of the models. Within-sample forecast performance and diagnostic tests indicate that the derived measure of real marginal cost performs better relative to the specifications with labour share of income or output gap. Further, the NKPC based on restrictive Cobb–Douglas production technology with labour input only does not perform better than the models that considers more inputs and intermediate cost. Our results show that the manufacturing is forward-looking sector followed by services and agriculture sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the COVID-19 health crisis, the French government has imposed drastic lockdown measures for a period of 55 days. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of these measures in the short and long term. We use a Computable General Equilibrium model designed to assess environmental and energy policies impacts at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. We find that the lockdown has led to a significant decrease in economic output of 5% of GDP, but a positive environmental impact with a 6.6% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2020. Both decreases are temporary: economic and environmental indicators return to their baseline trajectory after a few years. CO2 emissions even end up significantly higher after the COVID-19 crisis when we account for persistently low oil prices. We then investigate whether implementing carbon pricing can still yield positive macroeconomic dividends in the post-COVID recovery. We find that implementing ambitious carbon pricing speeds up economic recovery while significantly reducing CO2 emissions. By maintaining high fossil fuel prices, carbon taxation reduces the imports of fossil energy and stimulates energy efficiency investments while the full redistribution of tax proceeds does not hamper the recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size of the rental housing market in most countries around the globe is small. In this article, we claim that this may be detrimental to macroeconomic stability. We do it in three steps. First, using survey data for Poland, a country with a high homeownership ratio, we discuss microeconomic housing tenure choice determinants. Second, with a panel of 28 EU countries over the period 2004–2017, we provide evidence that the response of house prices to macroeconomic fundamentals is attenuated by the size of the private rental market. Third, we propose a DSGE model in which households satisfy housing needs both by owning and by renting. By simulating the model, we show that reforms enhancing the rental housing market contribute to macroeconomic stability. We conclude by formulating policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper studies the role of interbank credit within an agent-based model of the financial sector. Our main contribution consists in a behavioral foundation of banks demand and supply in the interbank market. We connect 100 heterogeneous banks that adapt their liquidity positions in the presence of shocks from the real economy via interbank deposits and interbank loans by using a common set of interbank rules. The key element in the model is the introduction of a Fermi–Dirac κ as a proxy of banks' consistency in their behavior in the interbank market. For different growth–volatility scenarios we analyze, how the consistency interplays with the value of capital-base in the banking system. Overall, this paper provides simulation-based arguments that the interbank credit can safeguard capital-base during economic declines and that the interbank credit might be an important stabilizing factor for the real-world banking systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Selecting early warning indicators to predict currency crises is not straightforward, because there are several mechanisms that lead up to currency crises and these mechanisms change over time and are not always visible, obvious or linear in nature. Traditionally, early warning indicators are selected from theory, stylized facts or meta studies. The alternative is to use data-driven processes, such as the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) that can handle unbalanced panels better than other methods. We use the selection of indicators determined by the EBA in an Early Warning System (EWS) and compare the performance with a benchmark EWS, where the indicators are chosen from a meta study of the literature. We find for a sample of 33 emerging economies that the determinants of currency crises confirm a large number of the early warning indicators from the literature, but also exhibit differences, which provide more insight in crisis mechanisms. Applying the determinants in an Early Warning System, we find that the EBA-selection outperforms the benchmark in the in-sample period (1990–2010). In the out-of-sample period (2011–2018) the EBA-selection performs better in the majority of the specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the study of mortgage loan pricing, prepayment and default hazards are considered. While default results in loss of initial capital, prepayment is the more frequent termination event. This study makes a distinction between pecuniary and non-pecuniary prepayments in the mortgage pricing model. Pecuniary/non-pecuniary prepayments are distinguished from each other based on whether the market interest rate at prepayment is below/above the rate at origination, and thus whether mortgage lenders/investors can reinvest the proceeds at a lower/higher interest rate using the proceeds from a prepaid loan. Using a sample of 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loans for home purchase, this study finds that pecuniary and non-pecuniary prepayments are affected differently by certain overlapping factors and are driven by some unique factors. The results also show that combining these two types of prepayments into a single prepayment measure may yield inaccurate predictions of loan termination probabilities. The results from the mortgage pricing model indicate that pecuniary and non-pecuniary prepayment risks, together with default risk, contribute separately to the pricing of a loan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence in favour of the ability of the term spread to forecast economic growth of the South African economy is non-existent. This could be due to the term spread aggregating information contained in the expected spread and the term premium. To decompose the term spread into its subcomponents, we develop an estimable small open economy new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOENKDSGE) model of the inflation targeting South African economy. The SOENKDSGE model is estimated with Bayesian methods over the quarterly period of 2000:01–2014:04. We then use a linear predictive regression framework to analyse the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the aggregate term spread, as well as the expected spread and term premium. Our forecasting results fail to detect forecasting gains from the aggregate term spread and also the term premium, but the expected spread is found to contain important information in forecasting output growth over short- to medium-run horizons, over the period of 2004:01–2014:04, using an in-sample period of 2000:01–2003:04. The results therefore highlight the importance of the forward-looking component of the term spread—the expected spread—in forecasting the output growth of South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the small noise asymptotic expansions for certain classes of local volatility models arising in finance. We provide explicit expressions for the involved coefficients as well as accurate estimates on the remainders. Moreover, we perform a detailed numerical analysis, with accuracy comparisons, of the obtained results by means of the standard Monte Carlo technique as well as exploiting the Polynomial Chaos Expansion approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the performance of early warning systems for currency crises in real-time, using forecasts of indicators that are available at the moment predictions are to be made. We investigate two types of commonly used early warning systems for currency crises: the signal approach and the logit model. We apply each EWS to a panel of fifteen emerging economies, distinguishing an estimation period 1991Q1–2010Q4 and a prediction period 2011Q1–2017Q4. We find that using indicator forecasts in the predictions worsens the ability of early warning systems to signal crises compared to the most recently available information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we estimate and forecast with a small-scale DSGE model of the Euro area and the USA characterized by diverging interest-rate rules using quarterly data from 1996Q2 to 2011Q2. These diverging rules reflect the differing mandates of the ECB and the Fed, respectively. Due to its primary objective of price stability, the ECB is supposed to conduct monetary policy by considering producer-price inflation only (single mandate), whereas the Fed is assumed to conduct its policy by taking into account the output gap in addition to producer-price inflation (dual mandate). In terms of the RMSE and the MAE, the DSGE model with diverging interest-rate rules outperforms a DSGE model with identical interest-rate rules in almost 70% of all cases for almost all variables across forecast horizons out of sample. It also compares well with BVAR benchmarks. For shorter horizons, we find some statistically significant differences in forecast accuracy between rival models. For forecast horizons three and four quarters ahead, the null hypothesis of equal forecast accuracy can seldom be rejected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large data forecasting approaches. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by a large dataset by compressing its informational content, yet at different stages of the forecasting process. We consider different factor models, a large Bayesian vector autoregression and model averaging techniques, where the data compression takes place before, during and after the estimation of the respective forecasting models. We use a quarterly dataset for Germany that consists of 123 variables and find that overall the large Bayesian vector autoregression and the Bayesian factor augmented vector autoregression provide the most precise forecasts for a set of 11 core macroeconomic variables. Further, we find that the performance of these two models is very robust to the exact specification of the forecasting model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimal monetary policy models in the linear-quadratic framework produce high variability of interest rates, and are hence inconsistent with the data where typically interest rate smoothing is observed. In this paper we determine optimal monetary polices in a VAR model of the Polish economy with parameter uncertainty. We prove that there exists a structure of the multiplicative uncertainty in the optimal linear-quadratic model that explains the central bank’s behaviour. Thus proving that parameter uncertainty can be the rationale for “timid” movements in the short-interest rate dynamics. Finally, we show that there is trade off between parameter uncertainty and the interest rate smoothing incentive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial crisis led to a number of new systemic risk measures and a renewed concern over the risk of contagion. This paper surveys the systemic risk literature with a focus on the importance of contributions made by those emphasizing a network-based approach, and how that compares with more commonly used approaches. Research on systemic risk has generally found that the risk of contagion through domino effects is minimal, and thus emphasized focusing on the resiliency of the financial system to broad macroeconomic shocks. Theoretical, methodological, and empirical work is critically examined to provide insight on how and why regulators have emphasized deregulation, diversification, size-based regulations, and portfolio-based coherent systemic risk measures. Furthermore, in the context of network analysis, this paper reviews and critically assesses newly created systemic risk measures. Network analysis and agent-based modeling approaches to understanding network formation offer promise in helping understand contagion, and also detecting fragile systems before they collapse. Theory and evidence discussed here implies that regulators and researchers need to gain an improved understanding of how topology, capital requirements, and liquidity interact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In theory, the nearest-nickel rounding scheme renders no financial gains for anyone given that each final digit has the same probability of appearing. However, in practice, rounding may yield non-zero net effects as most store prices end with nine. In this paper, price data from representative Canadian grocery stores are used to assess whether the current rounding system imposes a monetary loss on firms or consumers. Specifically, I evaluate how one- to ten-item purchases and the six different Canadian provincial sales tax rates influence penny-rounding. The results show that penny-rounding financially benefits the firms at the expense of the consumers, imposing a net transfer of approximately $3.27 million CAD from consumers to grocery vendors every year. This amount averages to $157 of additional revenue for a typical grocery store per year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, several authors have documented the presence of estimation bias in Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models (GADTSM). However, only a few applications involving its impact on the empirical performance of GADTSM exist in the extant literature, and these studies focus solely on discrete-time vector autoregressive (VAR) based GADTSM and concentrate on issues of small-sample bias and persistence. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive investigation of this issue that includes the estimation of both discrete-time VAR based GADTSM and continuous-time GADTSM at multiple data frequencies through a unique empirical design and two Monte Carlo simulation experiments, within which we construct estimation bias from the serial correlation in yield pricing errors. Our findings show that, although, empirical performance of all studied GADTSM are severely impacted by estimation bias, discrete-time GADTSM are more severely impacted by estimation bias than continuous-time GADTSM. Building on theoretical arguments developed in previous works, we attribute this finding to the strong dependence of discrete-time VAR based GADTSM on the ordinary least squares econometric technique relative to the continuous-time GADTSM for which general maximum likelihood estimation is more suitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates political pressure from incumbent Presidents and Congress on US monetary policy during the period that Greenspan was the chairman of the Federal Reserve. We propose an expectations-augmented Taylor rule in which we replace realized values with expectations, and use the unemployment gap instead of the output gap. We apply a state-space framework that allows the use of mixed frequency data. Our findings suggest that the Federal Reserve under Greenspan did not create election driven cycles, but also did not strictly follow the Taylor rule. The deviations from the Taylor rule are not driven by partisan politics, but are rooted in the expected economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its diverse implications. This study aimed to address the issue of error distribution assumption in modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility between the Bangladeshi taka (BDT) and the US dollar ($). Methods: Using daily exchange rates for 7 years (January 1, 2008, to April 30, 2015), this study attempted to model dynamics following generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH), asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH), exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic (EGARCH), threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic (TGARCH), and integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic (IGARCH) processes under both normal and Student's t-distribution assumptions for errors. Results and Conclusions: It was found that, in contrast with the normal distribution, the application of Student's t-distribution for errors helped the models satisfy the diagnostic tests and show improved forecasting accuracy. With such error distribution for out-of-sample volatility forecasting, AR(2)-GARCH(1, 1) is considered the best. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial crisis and subsequent sovereign debt crisis together had a profound impact on the current economic environment. This study reexamines the established stylized facts and previous evidence regarding the predictive association between financial variables and real economic activity considering changed economic circumstances. This paper focuses on the predictive ability of the term spread, short-term interest rate and stock returns for real GDP growth in the G-7 countries. We compare the predictive content of nominal financial variables with that of real financial variables and consider the proper number of financial predictors and time variations of forecasting performance. The forecasting results unambiguously indicate that financial variables have regained their predictive power since the financial crisis. Moreover, this study shows that real financial variables are superior to nominal variables and that using several financial indicators for forecasting GDP growth is preferable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The data analysis consisted of a basic multi-equation linear regression model, that tries to assess whether there is an effect of the deviation of real inflation values from the inflation target, measured in absolute values, set by the ECB in the EU-27 countries on public expenditure. However, the Governing Council of the ECB stated that in the pursuit of price stability, it attempts to maintain inflation rates below, but close to 2% over the medium term. (The ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy, Press Release 8 May, 2003), https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2003/html/pr030508 2.en.html). This is why one can concretely consider the European Central Bank (ECB) as a monetary authority that adopted inflation targeting. [Extracted from the article]

Since China's enactment of the Reform and Opening-Up policy in 1978, China has become one of the world's fastest growing economies, with an annual GDP growth rate exceeding 10 % between 1978 and 2008. But in 2015, Chinese GDP grew at 7 %, the lowest rate in 5 years. Many corporations complain that the borrowing cost of capital is too high. This paper constructs Chinese Divisia monetary aggregates M1 and M2, and, for the first time, constructs the broader Chinese monetary aggregates, M3 and M4. Those broader aggregates have never before been constructed for China, either as simple-sum or Divisia. The results shed light on the current Chinese monetary situation and the increased borrowing cost of money. GDP data are published only quarterly and with a substantial lag, while many monetary and financial decisions are made at a higher frequency. GDP nowcasting can evaluate the current month's GDP growth rate, given the available economic data up to the point at which the nowcasting is conducted. Therefore, nowcasting GDP has become an increasingly important task for central banks. This paper nowcasts Chinese monthly GDP growth rate using a dynamic factor model, incorporating as indicators the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes, Divisia M1 and M2 along with additional information from a large panel of other relevant time series data. The results show that Divisia monetary aggregates contain more indicator information than the simple sum aggregates, and thereby help the factor model produce the best available nowcasting results. In addition, our results demonstrate that China's economy experienced a regime switch or structure break in 2012, which a Chow test confirmed the regime switch. Before and after the regime switch, the factor models performed differently. We conclude that different nowcasting models should be used during the two regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to analyze the definition effect on prediction powers of Early Warning Systems (EWS), we construct an EWS model with 20 different crisis definitions. Furthermore, to analyze the probability threshold effect, we identify 11 different threshold levels and forecast the different versions of our model for each of those threshold levels. Our results show that crisis definitions and threshold choices significantly affect the prediction powers of the EWS models. To put it more explicitly, Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) Index based definition is shown to be a better predictor compared to depreciation based definition. Furthermore, EMP Index is found to give better results with higher standard deviation multiplier. Last but not least, it is empirically proven that 50 % threshold is the optimal level for EWS analyses as until that level the prediction powers of the models significantly increase but keep constant above it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capital market investors' capability to forecast the central bank interest rate is critical, since the latter serves as an anchor for many economic transactions. Financial-economics literature shows that the short-term forward rate is a crucial factor considered by investors in the expectation of central bank returns. Yet, it is unclear if the forward rate, a rather abstract measure, is a sufficient predictor-whether a more concrete variable, such as investors' crisis cycle perceptions, significantly adds explanatory power to the central bank rate expectations. We examine Israeli capital market forecasting of the short-term Central Bank of Israel interest rate, i.e., a 1-to-3-month horizon, during the period 1993-2008. Beyond extracting the forward rate, we create a proxy for crisis business cycle, using local and international capital market performance. This financial setting allows us to examine the Construal Level Theory, where the abstract variable is the forward rate, the concrete variable is the economic crisis, and the construal level is the horizon length. The findings strongly support Construal Level Theory. We show that the expected central bank rate's reliance on the abstract forward rate becomes more aggressive for longer periods. In addition, the significant positive impact of the economy's crisis cycle on the short-horizon expected federal fund diminishes in longer horizons. Hence, there is a forecasting substitution effect between the concrete economy crisis and the abstract forward rate in the psychological distance represented by the investment horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An estimated monetary policy VAR with 1993:IV-2008:III Euro data returns an insignificant response of inflation and a borderline significant reaction of the output gap to monetary policy shocks identified with the widely employed Cholesky restrictions. We replicate this evidence with a Monte Carlo exercise, in which the true responses of inflation and the output gap, according to an estimated DSGE model which we use as data-generating process, are negative. Consequently, insignificant macroeconomic reactions to policy shocks as documented by a small-scale Cholesky-VAR for the Euro area do not necessarily point to monetary policy neutrality. Differently, the Cholesky-VAR evidence may very well be due to false short-run zero-restrictions. A data-driven discussion on this reading of the drivers of our Cholesky-VAR impulse responses versus alternative interpretations such as omitted factors and structural breaks is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether monetary-policy regime changes affect the success of forecasting inflation. The forecasting performances of some linear and nonlinear univariate models are analyzed for 14 different countries that have adopted inflation-targeting (IT) monetary regimes at some point in their economic history. The results show that forecasting performance is generally superior under an IT monetary regime compared to nonIT (NIT) periods. In more than half of the countries covered in this study, superior forecasting accuracy can be achieved in IT periods regardless of the model used. In contrast, among most of the remaining countries, the results remain ambiguous, and the evidence on the superiority of NIT is limited to very few countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of international current account imbalances has dominated the economic debate for several years and has been considered one of the main reasons for the turbulences in the world economy since 2007. Economic theory suggests that an economy cannot run persistent current account deficits without depleting its net foreign assets. Nevertheless, for most of the 2000s, the US net foreign liabilities grew at a rate below the one of the cumulative current account deficit. To investigate on the mechanisms that allow the USA to do so, this paper sets up a two-country DGE model with asymmetric liquidity constraints. The model will show that there is a permanent wealth transfer from the world to the USA. The unique position of the USA not only allows them to run persistent current account deficits, but also imposes a permanent decay on the American current account. As the issuer of the world key currency in an asymmetric world monetary system, the USA can make use of Seigniorage and valuation effects to be able to run a continuous current account deficit. These mechanisms work in favour of their net foreign bond holdings, but let their current account further deteriorate. The corresponding one-way capital flows were part of the distortions that laid the ground for the world financial crisis 2007-2009. Future will show if a multi polar world with several (regional) reserve currencies emerges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether the spread between long- and short-terminterest rates contains information about future economic activity in India. Using the yields on securities with maturities ranging from three months to ten years, we construct five different yield spreads at shorter end, longer end, and policy relevant area of the yield curve. We study the predictive power of each of these spreads for output growth within aggregate and time scale framework using wavelet methodology. We find that predictive power holds only at lower frequencies for the spreads which are constructed at shorter end and policy relevant areas of yield curve. However, spreads which are constructed at the longer end of the yield curve do not seem to have predictive information for output growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With regard to interest rate forecasts, earlier researchers have found mixed evidence of forecaster herding. Using the Livingston survey data, we reexamined the case for forecaster herding. We did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, we found strong evidence of forecaster anti-herding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We offer a qualitative evaluation of the transmission mechanisms of two real shocks, a productivity shock and a government expenditure shock in Walrasian business cycle models. The analysis is developed in a monetary small open economy business cycle model, a set-up general enough to study the effects of the two shocks on both real and nominal variables. Qualitative and graphical displays indicate properties of Real Business Cycles that are able to reproduce observed cyclical patterns, independently of the calibration used for different economies. These qualitative findings match the quantitative results found in the literature, and rationalize some disparity findings (such as the cyclicity pattern of prices) and failures (such as the Dunlop-Tarshis observation). We suggest that understanding the underlying qualitative intuitions of these models may be of great help in tackling new puzzles in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interaction between prices of nickel, copper and cobalt, the latter a by-product of nickel and copper in laterites and sulphite deposits, are analysed in relation to the price of oil, the US real interest rate and the real effective exchange rate of dollar using an autoregressive distributed lag model, to draw considerations on the profitability in the exploitation of polymetallic manganese nodules and cobalt crust in a mutually exclusive scenario. The results show co-movements between these variables through the presence of three long-run relationships. Focusing mainly on the cobalt/nickel relationship, it is shown that price of cobalt anticipates and exerts a negative effect on nickel while, as expected, the price of oil has a positive impact and the exchange rate a negative one. Conversely, the impact of the real interest rate is not significant. A Monte Carlo simulation is employed to forecast a robust average price of nickel in the long run, finding that under the actual stagnant economic conditions and an average price of cobalt of $40/kg (at 2000 price equivalence), the price of nickel will remain close to the actual, around $18/kg (at 2000 price equivalence). This result, coupled with the literature findings that in a mutually exclusive scenario, the prevalence of cobalt crust over manganese nodules can be shown only if the price of nickel is below $9/kg (at 2000 price equivalence), justifies why increased attention has been re-directed towards polymetallic nodules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a nonparametric testing procedure for long-run monetary neutrality using spectral approaches. Long-run effects between bivariate integrated series are represented as the spectral density matrix of their first-differences evaluated at the zero frequency. The long-run neutrality, the core issue in this work, reduces to zero power of the cross spectral density function near the origin. We propose a statistic based on a kernel-based cross spectral density estimator. As designed to be consistent against cross correlations of unknown forms, the test differentiates it from tests based on parametric regression models. In implementing the tests, some feasible bandwidth selection procedures are detailed in terms of mean squared error criteria and of type I and type II errors criteria. Our testing procedures can be a complementary approach for neutrality testing. Simulation studies are shown to support theoretical results. Our methods are applied to testing long-run neutrality in the US nominal money and real output quarterly data from the first quarter of 1959 to the third quarter of 2009. Our tests unanimously reject the long-run neutrality for M2 regardless of the choice of bandwidths and of kernels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we (1) examine the interactions of financial variables and the macroeconomy within the block-restriction vector autoregression model and (2) evaluate to what extent the financial variables improve the forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. For this reason, various financial variables are examined, including those unexplored in previous literature, such as the share of liquid assets in the banking industry and the loan loss provision rate. Our results suggest that financial variables have a systematic and statistically significant effect on macroeconomic fluctuations. In terms of forecast evaluation, financial variables in general seem to improve the forecast of macroeconomic variables, but the predictive performance of individual financial variables varies over time, even though it strengthens during the 2008-2009 crisis. The results give some support for the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, as the level of the monetary policy rate is positively associated with the loan loss provision rate of commercial banks. Finally, a more stable financial system is found to contribute to faster economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Functional gradient descent (FGD), a recent technique coming from computational statistics, is applied to the estimation of the conditional moments of the short rate process with the goal of finding the main drivers of the drift and volatility dynamics. FGD can improve the accuracy of some reasonable starting estimates obtained using classical short rate models introduced in the literature. It exploits the predictive information of an enlarged set of variables, including yields at other maturities, time, and macroeconomic indicators. Fitting this methodology to the time series of monthly US 3-month Treasury bill rates, we find that the drift dynamics react mostly in a non-linear way to changes in macroeconomic variables, whereas volatility dynamics are subjected to time-dependent regime-switches. Finally we show the superior performance of the final predictions obtained by applying FGD in a forecasting exercise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

B cell development starts in the bone marrow where hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) progress through sequential developmental stages, as it differentiates into a naïve B cell expressing surface immunoglobulin. In the periphery, B cells that encounter antigen can further differentiate into antibody-secreting plasma cells. In this review, we focus on two factors, E47 and ELL2, which play important roles in the regulation of B cell development in the bone marrow and differentiation of mature B cells into plasma cells in the periphery, respectively. First, E47 activity is required for B cell development in the bone marrow. In addition, we have identified a cell-intrinsic role for E47 in regulating efficient self-renewal and long-term multilineage bone marrow reconstitution potential of HSCs. Second, we explored the role of transcription elongation factors in the super elongation complex (SEC), including ELL2 (eleven-nineteen lysine-rich leukemia factor) in driving poly(A) site choice and plasma cell development. We found that elongation factors impel high levels of IgH mRNA production and alternative processing at the promoter proximal, secretory-specific (sec) poly(A) site in plasma cells by enhancing RNA polymerase II modifications and downstream events. The sec poly(A) site, essentially hidden in B cells, is found by SEC factors in plasma cells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1-1994:Q4; and then forecasts one-to-four quarters-ahead real house price growth over the out-of-sample horizon of 1995:Q1-2006:Q4. The forecasts are evaluated by comparing them with those from an unrestricted classical Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the corresponding univariate variant of the same. Finally, the models that produce the minimum average Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs), are used to predict the downturns in the real house price growth over the recent period of 2007:Q1-2008:Q1. The results show that the BVARs, in whatever form they might be, are the best performing models in 19 of the 20 states. Moreover, these models do a fair job in predicting the downturn in 18 of the 19 states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the performance of a set of monetary indicators, based on the Divisia money constructed for the euro area, on forecasting euro area inflation. The paper first briefly discusses on the relative information contents of the Divisia aggregates and the simple sum aggregates. The forecasting performance of the former is then examined by means of simulated out-of-sample forecasting. In addition to examining the information contents of the Divisia aggregate constructed for M3 money, the study also examines the performance of the Divisia M1 money to gain evidence on the relative performance between the broad and narrow Divisia monetary aggregates. According to the results, only some of the monetary indicators considered can significantly improve the univariate inflation forecasts. The Divisia M3 money based monetary indicators turned out to perform better than their Divisia M1 based counterparts. The result contradicts some previous evidence on the optimal level on monetary aggregation in the context of broad versus narrow money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The E2A proteins are basic helix–loop–helix transcription factors that regulate proliferation and differentiation in many cell types. In muscle cells, the E2A proteins form heterodimers with muscle regulatory factors such as MyoD, which then bind to DNA and regulate the transcription of target genes essential for muscle differentiation. We now demonstrate that E2A proteins are primarily localized in the nucleus in both C2C12 myoblasts and myotubes, and are degraded by the ubiquitin proteasome system evidenced by stabilization following treatment with the proteasome inhibitor, MG132. During the differentiation from myoblast to myotube, the cellular abundance of E2A proteins is relatively unaltered, despite significant changes (each ∼5-fold) in the relative rates of protein synthesis and protein degradation via the ubiquitin-proteasome system. The rate of ubiquitin-proteasome-mediated E2A protein degradation depends on the myogenic differentiation state (t½∼2 h in proliferating myoblasts versus t½>10 h in differentiated myotubes), and is also associated with cell cycle in non-muscle cells. Our findings reveal an important role for both translational and post-translational regulatory mechanisms in mediating the complex program of muscle differentiation determined by the E2A proteins.Oncogene (2007) 26, 441–448. doi:10.1038/sj.onc.1209793; published online 7 August 2006 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate two main views on pursuing financial stability within a flexible inflation-targeting regime. It appears that potential gains from an activist or precautionary approach to promoting financial stability are highly shock dependent. We find support for the conventional view that concern for financial stability generally warrants a longer target horizon for inflation. The preferred target horizon depends on the financial stability indicator and the shock. An extension of the target horizon favoring financial stability may contribute to relatively higher variation in inflation and output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Programs of tissue differentiation are likely controlled by factors regulating gene expression and protein degradation. In muscle, the degradation of the muscle transcription factor MyoD and its inhibitor Id1 occurs via the ubiquitin–proteasome system. E12 and E47, splice products of the E2A gene, interact with MyoD to activate transcription of the muscle program and are also degraded by the ubiquitin–proteasome system (t1/2=∼6 h). E12 and E47 each contain two regions of basic amino acids, which, when mutated, lead to cytoplasmic accumulation of the proteins. These NLS mutants (E12NLS, E47NLS) are degraded with a half-life similar to the wild-type proteins. In nonmuscle cells, cotransfection of either E12 or E47 with MyoD extended MyoD's half-life from ∼1 to ∼4 h. In addition, cotransfection of either E12 or E47 with Id1 led to a marked reduction in Id1's degradation rate from t1/2 of ∼1 to ∼8 h. Furthermore, the cotransfection of NLS deficient mutants of MyoD or Id1 with E12 or E47 resulted in altered intracellular localization of the proteins largely dependent upon the E12 or E47 moiety. Cotransfection of wild-type MyoD or Id1 with NLS deficient mutants of E12 or E47 also led to an altered intracellular localization of MyoD and Id1. These results demonstrate in vivo that E12 and E47 modulate both MyoD and Id1 degradation and may have implications for the physiological regulation of muscle development.Oncogene (2005) 24, 6376–6384. doi:10.1038/sj.onc.1208789; published online 20 June 2005 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Demand for M3 and Inflation Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland. - This paper argues that money should continue to play an important role in monetary policy even if a central bank pursues a strategy based on inflation forecasts. Within the context of an error correction model, the paper delivers empirical evidence that both the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 and the size of excess M3 incorporate useful information with regard to future inflation in Switzerland. This evidence strongly suggests that money should remain an important indicator for monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on cumulative probabilities and their use by bookmakers. Topics discussed include the discrete probability distribution, the statistical methods used by bookmakers in the odds in sports betting, and the stacked odds as an example of behavioral economics. Also mentioned is the distribution of the total probability of 1 over various possible outcomes.