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Background: There are high estimates of the potential climate change mitigation opportunity of using wood products. A significant part of those estimates depends on long-lived wood products in the construction sector replacing concrete, steel, and other non-renewable goods. Often the climate change mitigation benefits of this substitution are presented and quantified in the form of displacement factors. A displacement factor is numerically quantified as the reduction in emissions achieved per unit of wood used, representing the efficiency of biomass in decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. The substitution benefit for a given wood use scenario is then represented as the estimated change in emissions from baseline in a study's modelling framework. The purpose of this review is to identify and assess the central economic and technical assumptions underlying forest carbon accounting and life cycle assessments that use displacement factors or similar simple methods. Main text: Four assumptions in the way displacement factors are employed are analyzed: (1) changes in harvest or production rates will lead to a corresponding change in consumption of wood products, (2) wood building products are substitutable for concrete and steel, (3) the same mix of products could be produced from increased harvest rates, and (4) there are no market responses to increased wood use. Conclusions: After outlining these assumptions, we conclude suggesting that many studies assessing forest management or products for climate change mitigation depend on a suite of assumptions that the literature either does not support or only partially supports. Therefore, we encourage the research community to develop a more sophisticated model of the building sectors and their products. In the meantime, recognizing these assumptions has allowed us to identify some structural, production, and policy-based changes to the construction industry that could help realize the climate change mitigation potential of wood products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The default international accounting rules estimate the carbon emissions from forest products by assuming all harvest is immediately emitted to the atmosphere. This makes it difficult to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) consequences of different forest management or manufacturing activities that maintain the storage of carbon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addresses this issue by allowing other accounting methods. The objective of this paper is to provide a new model for estimating annual stock changes of carbon in harvested wood products (HWP). Results: The model, British Columbia Harvested Wood Products version 1 (BC-HWPv1), estimates carbon stocks and fluxes for wood harvested in BC from 1965 to 2065, based on new parameters on local manufacturing, updated and new information for North America on consumption and disposal of wood and paper products, and updated parameters on methane management at landfills in the USA. Based on model results, reporting on emissions as they occur would substantially lower BC's greenhouse gas inventory in 2010 from 48 Mt CO2 to 26 Mt CO2 because of the long-term forest carbon storage in-use and in the non-degradable material in landfills. In addition, if offset projects created under BC's protocol reported 100 year cumulative emissions using the BC-HWPv1 the emissions would be lower by about 11%. Conclusions: This research showed that the IPCC default methods overestimate the emissions North America wood products. Future IPCC GHG accounting methods could include a lower emissions factor (e.g. 0.52) multiplied by the annual harvest, rather than the current multiplier of 1.0. The simulations demonstrated that the primary opportunities for climate change mitigation are in shifting from burning mill waste to using the wood for longer-lived products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) is an important and recurrent disturbance throughout spruce ( Picea sp.) and balsam fir ( Abies balsamea L.) dominated forests of North America. Forest carbon (C) dynamics in these ecosystems are affected during insect outbreaks because millions of square kilometers of forest suffer growth loss and mortality. We tested the hypothesis that a spruce budworm outbreak similar to those in the past could switch a forest from a C sink to a source in the near future. We used a model of ecosystem C to integrate past spruce budworm impact sequences with current forest management data on 106,000 km of forest in eastern Québec. Spruce budworm-caused mortality decreased stand-level merchantable C stocks by 11–90% and decreased ecosystem C stocks by 2–10% by the end of the simulation. For the first 13 years (2011–2024), adding spruce budworm significantly reduced ecosystem C stock change for the landscape from a sink (4.6 ± 2.7 g C m y in 2018) to a source (−16.8 ± 3.0 g C m y in 2018). This result was mostly due to reduced net primary production. The ecosystem stock change was reduced on average by 2 Tg C y for the entire simulated area. This study provides the first estimate that spruce budworm can significantly affect the C sink or source status of a large landscape. These results indicate that reducing spruce budworm impacts on timber may also provide an opportunity to mitigate a C source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]