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Commercial banks are required to explain the credit evaluation results to their customers. Therefore, banks attempt to improve the performance of their credit scoring models while ensuring the interpretability of the results. However, there is a tradeoff between the logistic regression model and machine learning-based techniques regarding interpretability and model performance because machine learning-based models are a black box. To deal with the tradeoff, in this study, we present a two-stage logistic regression method based on the Bayesian approach. In the first stage, we generate the derivative variables by linearly combining the original features with their explanatory powers based on the Bayesian inference. The second stage involves developing a credit scoring model through logistic regression using these derivative variables. Through this process, the explanatory power of a large number of original features can be utilized for default prediction, and the use of logistic regression maintains the model's interpretability. In the empirical analysis, the independent sample t-test reveals that our proposed approach significantly improves the model's performance compared to that based on the conventional single-stage approach, i.e., the baseline model. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics show a 3.42 percentage points (%p) increase, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic shows a 2.61%p increase. Given that our two-stage modeling approach has the advantages of interpretability and enhanced performance of the credit scoring model, our proposed method is essential for those in charge of banking who must explain credit evaluation results and find ways to improve the performance of credit scoring models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have a crucial influence on the economic development of every nation, but access to formal finance remains a barrier. Similarly, financial institutions encounter challenges in the assessment of SMEs' creditworthiness for the provision of financing. Financial institutions employ credit scoring models to identify potential borrowers and to determine loan pricing and collateral requirements. SMEs are perceived as unorganized in terms of financial data management compared to large corporations, making the assessment of credit risk based on inadequate financial data a cause for financial institutions' concern. The majority of existing models are data-driven and have faced criticism for failing to meet their assumptions. To address the issue of limited financial record keeping, this study developed and validated a system to predict SMEs' credit risk by introducing a multicriteria credit scoring model. The model was constructed using a hybrid best–worst method (BWM) and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Initially, the BWM determines the weight criteria, and TOPSIS is applied to score SMEs. A real-life case study was examined to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and a sensitivity analysis varying the weight of the criteria was performed to assess robustness against unpredictable financial situations. The findings indicated that SMEs' credit history, cash liquidity, and repayment period are the most crucial factors in lending, followed by return on capital, financial flexibility, and integrity. The proposed credit scoring model outperformed the existing commercial model in terms of its accuracy in predicting defaults. This model could assist financial institutions, providing a simple means for identifying potential SMEs to grant credit, and advance further research using alternative approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have a crucial influence on the economic development of every nation, but access to formal finance remains a barrier. Similarly, financial institutions encounter challenges in the assessment of SMEs' creditworthiness for the provision of financing. Financial institutions employ credit scoring models to identify potential borrowers and to determine loan pricing and collateral requirements. SMEs are perceived as unorganized in terms of financial data management compared to large corporations, making the assessment of credit risk based on inadequate financial data a cause for financial institutions' concern. The majority of existing models are data-driven and have faced criticism for failing to meet their assumptions. To address the issue of limited financial record keeping, this study developed and validated a system to predict SMEs' credit risk by introducing a multicriteria credit scoring model. The model was constructed using a hybrid best–worst method (BWM) and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Initially, the BWM determines the weight criteria, and TOPSIS is applied to score SMEs. A real-life case study was examined to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and a sensitivity analysis varying the weight of the criteria was performed to assess robustness against unpredictable financial situations. The findings indicated that SMEs' credit history, cash liquidity, and repayment period are the most crucial factors in lending, followed by return on capital, financial flexibility, and integrity. The proposed credit scoring model outperformed the existing commercial model in terms of its accuracy in predicting defaults. This model could assist financial institutions, providing a simple means for identifying potential SMEs to grant credit, and advance further research using alternative approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent finance and debt crises have made credit risk management one of the most important issues in financial research. Reliable credit scoring models are crucial for financial agencies to evaluate credit applications and have been widely studied in the field of machine learning and statistics. In this paper, a novel feature-weighted support vector machine (SVM) credit scoring model is presented for credit risk assessment, in which an F-score is adopted for feature importance ranking. Considering the mutual interaction among modeling features, random forest is further introduced for relative feature importance measurement. These two feature-weighted versions of SVM are tested against the traditional SVM on two real-world datasets and the research results reveal the validity of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]