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The position of the intertropical convergence zone is an important control on the distribution of low-latitude precipitation. Its position is largely controlled by hemisphere temperature contrasts. The release of aerosols by human activities may have resulted in a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone since the early 1900s (refs , , , , ) by muting the warming of the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere over this interval, but this proposed shift remains equivocal. Here we reconstruct monthly rainfall over Belize for the past 456 years from variations in the carbon isotope composition of a well-dated, monthly resolved speleothem. We identify an unprecedented drying trend since ad 1850 that indicates a southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone. This drying coincides with increasing aerosol emissions in the Northern Hemisphere and also marks a breakdown in the relationship between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the position of the intertropical convergence zone observed earlier in the record. We also identify nine short-lived drying events since ad 1550 each following a large volcanic eruption in the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that anthropogenic aerosol emissions have led to a reduction of rainfall in the northern tropics during the twentieth century, and suggest that geographic changes in aerosol emissions should be considered when assessing potential future rainfall shifts in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Caves are extreme and specialised habitats for terrestrial life that sometimes contain moonmilk, a fine-grained paste-like secondary mineral deposit that is found in subterranean systems worldwide. While previous studies have investigated the possible role of microorganisms in moonmilk precipitation, the microbial community ecology of moonmilk deposits is poorly understood. Bacterial and fungal community structure associated with four spatially isolated microcrystalline, acicular calcite moonmilk deposits at Ballynamintra Cave (S. Ireland) was investigated during this study. Statistical analyses revealed significant differences in microbial activity, number of bacterial species, bacterial richness and diversity, and fungal diversity (Shannon's diversity) among the moonmilk sites over an area of approximately 2.5 m. However, the number of fungal species and fungal community richness were unaffected by sampling location. SIMPER analysis revealed significant differences in bacterial and fungal community composition among the sampling sites. These data suggest that a rich assemblage of microorganisms exists associated with moonmilk, with some spatial diversity, which may reflect small-scale spatial differences in cave biogeochemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This two-year study investigates the relative influence of meteorological variables (precipitation amount and temperature), atmospheric circulation, air mass history, and moisture source region on Irish precipitation oxygen isotopes (δO) on event and monthly timescales. Single predictor correlations reveal that on the event scale, 20% of δO variability is attributable to the amount effect and 7% to the temperature effect while on the monthly timescale the North Atlantic Oscillation accounts for up to 20% of δO variability and the amount and temperature effects are not significant. In comparison, multivariate linear regression reveals that the interaction of temperature and precipitation amount explains up to 40% of δO variance at event and monthly timescales. Five-day kinematic back trajectories suggest that the amount-weighted mean δO value of southerly- and northerly-derived events are lower by 2‰ relative to events derived from the west. Because air mass history and atmospheric circulation appear to influence δO in Ireland, Irish paleo-δO proxy records are best interpreted as reflecting a combination of parameters, not just paleotemperature or paleorainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of a low- to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low- to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales. This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low- to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]