Search

The photoelectric factor (PEF) is an important well-logging tool to distinguish between different types of reservoir rocks because PEF measurement is sensitive to elements with high atomic numbers. Furthermore, the ratio of rock minerals could be determined by combining PEF log with other well logs. However, PEF logs could be missing in some cases such as in old well logs and wells drilled with barite-based mud. Therefore, developing models for estimating missing PEF logs is essential in those circumstances. In this work, we developed various machine learning models to predict PEF values using the following well logs as inputs: bulk density (RHOB), neutron porosity (NPHI), gamma ray (GR), compressional and shear velocity. The predictions of PEF values using adaptive-network-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural network (ANN) models have errors of about 16% and 14% average absolute percentage error (AAPE) in the testing dataset, respectively. Thus, a different approach was proposed that is based on the concept of automated machine learning. It works by automatically searching for the optimal model type and optimizes its hyperparameters for the dataset under investigation. This approach selected a Gaussian process regression (GPR) model for the accurate estimation of PEF values. The developed GPR model decreases the AAPE of the predicted PEF values in the testing dataset to about 10% AAPE. This error could be further decreased to about 2% by modeling the potential noise in the measurements using the GPR model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mixture of factor analyzers (MFA) model has emerged as a useful tool to perform dimensionality reduction and model-based clustering for heterogeneous data. In seeking the most appropriate number of factors (q) of a MFA model with the number of components (g) fixed a priori, a two-stage procedure is commonly implemented by firstly carrying out parameter estimation over a set of prespecified numbers of factors, and then selecting the best q according to certain penalized likelihood criteria. When the dimensionality of data grows higher, such a procedure can be computationally prohibitive. To overcome this obstacle, we develop an automated learning scheme, called the automated MFA (AMFA) algorithm, to effectively merge parameter estimation and selection of q into a one-stage algorithm. The proposed AMFA procedure that allows for much lower computational cost is also extended to accommodate missing values. Moreover, we explicitly derive the score vector and the empirical information matrix for calculating standard errors associated with the estimated parameters. The potential and applicability of the proposed method are demonstrated through a number of real datasets with genuine and synthetic missing values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic theories are often formulated as a system of structural equations. These structural equations imply genuinely causal relations, i.e., we regard the right-hand side variables as the causes and the left-hand side variables as the effects. In this paper we show that regression is not the proper way to infer causal relations. Based on the theory of inferred causation we propose a method to derive structural equations from multivariate time series. We apply this method to study the wage-price spiral for the Australia economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a new program, CORRECT, which takes words rejected by the Unix SPELL program, proposes a list of candidate corrections, and sorts them by probability score. The probability scores are the novel contribution of this work. They are based on a noisy channel model. It is assumed that the typist knows what words he or she wants to type but some noise is added on the way to the keyboard (in the form of typos and spelling errors). Using a classic Bayesian argument of the kind that is popular in recognition applications, especially speech recognition (Jelinek, 1985), one can often recover the intended correction, c, from a typo, t, by finding the correction c that maximizes Pr(c) Pr(t/c). The first factor, Pr(c), is a prior model of word probabilities; the second factor, Pr(t/c), is a model of the noisy channel that accounts for spelling transformations on letter sequences (insertions, deletions, substitutions and reversals). Both sets of probabilities were estimated using data collected from the Associated Press (AP) newswire over 1988 and 1989 as a training set. The AP generates about 1 million words and 500 typos per week. In evaluating the program, we found that human judges were extremely reluctant to cast a vote given only the information available to the program, and that they were much more comfortable when they could see a concordance line or two. The second half of this paper discusses some very simple methods of modeling the context using n-gram statistics. Although n-gram methods are much too simple (compared with much more sophisticated methods used in artificial intelligence and natural language processing), we have found that even these very simple methods illustrate some very interesting estimation problems that will almost certainly come up when we consider more sophisticated models of contexts. The problem is how to estimate the probability of a context that we have not seen. We compare several estimation techniques and find that some are useless. Fortunately, we have found that the Good-Turing method provides an estimate of contextual probabilities that produces a significant improvement in program performance. Context is helpful in this application, but only if it is estimated very carefully. At this point, we have a number of different knowledge sources-the prior, the channel and the context-and there will certainly be more in the future. In general, performance will be improved as more and more knowledge sources are added to the system, as long as each additional knowledge source provides some new (independent) information. As we shall see, it is important to think more carefully about combination rules, especially when there are a large number of different knowledge sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]