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Landuse and climate change are the two main dynamics significantly affecting watershed hydrology. Adequate knowledge about how these changes will alter the hydrologic regime provides valuable information for future water resources planning and management. The current study attempts to analyze the joint consequences of these dynamics on the future hydrological response of the Gorganroud watershed in northern Iran. For landuse, the integrated Markov Chain analysis and Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MC-MLPNN) algorithm were used to obtain landuse for 2030 and 2050. For climate, we developed future scenarios based on the downscaled data from MPI-ESM-MR for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate watershed hydrology. We found that (1) from 1986 to 2050, agriculture and rangeland are likely to expand by 18.6% and 10.7% of the total watershed area, respectively, at the expense of forest covers. (2) Temperature and precipitation are expected to increase by 1.3 °C and 2.5 °C and by 31.7% and 27.1% for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) during 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, respectively, compared to the baseline of 1976–1995. (3) We found that the integrated landuse and climate change will likely increase annual evapotranspiration during 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 by 113.9% and 11.4%, lateral flow by 14.6% and 7%, baseflow by 166.7% and 77.2%, surface runoff by 54.2% and 41%, water yield by 50.5% and 35.9%, and streamflow by 48.6% and 32.1% for RCP8.5 compared to the baseline of 1976–1995. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landuse change and climate change are the main drivers of hydrological processes. The purpose of this study was to analyse the separate and combined future effects of climate and landuse changes on water balance components on different spatial and temporal scales using the integrated hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The study focused on the changes and relationship between water yield (WYLD) and sediment yield (SYLD) in the heterogeneous Taleghan Catchment in Iran. For future climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of GFDL-ESM2M GCM were used for 2020–2040. A Markov chain model was used to predict landuse change in the catchment. The results indicated an increase in precipitation and evapotranspiration. The findings also showed that the relationship between WYLD and SYLD is direct and synergic. Climate change has a stronger effect on WYLD than landuse change, whereas landuse change has a stronger effect on SYLD. The conversion of rangelands to barren land is the most critical landuse change that could increase SYLD. The highest increase in WYLD and SYLD in scenario RCP4.5 resulted from the combined effects of climate and landuse change. We estimated WYLD of about 295 mm and SYLD of around 17 t/ha. The proposed methodology is universal and can be applied to similar settings to identify the most vulnerable regions. This can help prioritize management strategies to improve water and soil management in watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major causes of groundwater pollution in Hamadan-Bahar aquifer in western Iran is a non-point source pollution resulting from agricultural activities. Withdrawal of over 88% of drinking water from groundwater resources, adds urgency to the studies leading to a better management of water supplies in this region. In this study, the DRASTIC model was used to construct groundwater vulnerability maps based on the 'intrinsic' (natural conditions) and 'specific' (including management) concepts. As DRASTIC has drawbacks to simulate specific contaminants, we conditioned the rates on measured nitrate data and optimized the weights of the specific model to obtain a nitrate vulnerability map for the region. The performance of the conditioned DRASTIC model improved significantly ( R = 0.52) over the intrinsic ( R = 0.12) and specific ( R = 0.19) models in predicting the groundwater nitrate concentration. Our study suggests that a locally conditioned DRASTIC model is an effective tool for predicting the region's vulnerability to nitrate pollution. In addition, comparison of groundwater tables between two periods 30 years apart indicated a drawdown of around 50 m in the central plain of the Hamadan-Bahar region. Our interpretation of the vulnerability maps for the two periods showed a polluted zone developing in the central valley requiring careful evaluation and monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a three-year factorial lysimeter study in Open Top Chambers (OTCs), we investigated the effect of topsoil pollution by the heavy metals Zn, Cu, and Cd on the water regime of newly established forest ecosystems. Furthermore, we studied the influence of two types of uncontaminated subsoils (acidic vs. calcareous) and two types of irrigation water acidity (ambient rainfall chemistry vs. acidified chemistry) on the response of the vegetation. Each of the eight treatment combinations was replicated four times. The contamination (2700 mg kg-1 Zn, 385 mg kg-1 Cu and 10 mg kg-1 Cd) was applied by mixing filter dust from a non-ferrous metal smelter into the upper 15 cm of the soil profile, consisting of silty loam (pH 6.5). The same vegetation was established in all 32 lysimeters. The model forest ecosystem consisted of seedlings of Norway spruce (Picea abies), willow (Salix viminalis), poplar (Populus tremula) and birch (Betula pendula) trees and a variety of herbaceous understorey plants. Systematic and significant effects showed up in the second and third growing season after canopies had closed. Evapotranspiration was reduced in metal contaminated treatments, independent of the subsoil type and acidity of the irrigation water. This effect corresponded to an even stronger reduction in root growth in the metal treatments. In the first two growing seasons, evapotranspiration was higher on the calcareous than on the acidic subsoil. In the third year the difference disappeared. Acidification of the irrigation water had no significant effect on water consumption, although a tendency to enhance evapotranspiration became increasingly manifest in the second and third year. Soil water potentials indicated that the increasing water consumption over the years was fed primarily by intensified extraction of water from the topsoil in the lysimeters with acidic subsoil, whereas also lower depths became strongly exploited in the lysimeters with calcareous subsoil. These patterns agreed well with the vertical profiles of fine root density related with the two types of subsoil. Leaf transpiration measurements and biomass samples showed that different plant species in part responded quite differently and occasionally even in opposite ways to the metal treatments and subsoil conditions. They suggest that the year-to-year changes in treatment effects on water consumption and extraction patterns were related to differences in growth dynamics, as well as to shifts in competitiveness of the various species. Results showed that the uncontaminated subsoil offered a possibility to compensate the reduction in root water extraction in the topsoil under drought, as well as metal stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iran is experiencing unprecedented climate-related problems such as drying of lakes and rivers, dust storms, record-breaking temperatures, droughts, and floods. Here, we use the ensemble of five high-resolution climate models to project maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall distribution, calculate occurrences of extreme temperatures (temperatures above and below the historical 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively), analyze compound of precipitation and temperature extremes, and determine flooding frequencies across the country. We found that compared to the period of 1980-2004, in the period of 2025-2049, Iran is likely to experience more extended periods of extreme maximum temperatures in the southern part of the country, more extended periods of dry (for ≥120 days: precipitation <2 mm, Tmax ≥30 °C) as well as wet (for ≤3 days: total precipitation ≥110 mm) conditions, and higher frequency of floods. Overall, the combination of these results projects a climate of extended dry periods interrupted by intermittent heavy rainfalls, which is a recipe for increasing the chances of floods. Without thoughtful adaptability measures, some parts of the country may face limited habitability in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]