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Brassica napus, a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040–2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus, with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus, impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soybean is one of the most cultivated and important legumes in the world. Given its importance, understanding the shifts of climate suitability for this crop under climate change is essential. One way to map these potential changes in soybean distribution is through species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we conducted a SDM for soybeans, using data from non-irrigated soybean fields. We used CLIMEX and CliMond climatic data in 10' resolution data to model the current and future climatic potential distribution of soybeans, applying the general circulation model CSIRO-Mk3.0 and assuming an A2 emissions scenario for 2030, 2050, and 2070. We analyzed changes in the climatic suitability areas under these different climatic projections and highlighted the major soybean-growing countries (USA, Brazil, Argentina, China, and India). In the future, the consequences of climate change on soybean will probably depend on its locality on the globe. Climate suitability for soybean cultivation is likely to increase in countries and regions located at northern latitudes, such as Canada and Western Europe. On the other hand, countries located in tropical areas, for example Brazil and India, may suffer significant losses in suitable areas by 2070. Our model provides a more in-depth view of areas that can be incorporated into soybean cultivation and which stressors decrease the climatic suitability of soybean in current and future scenarios. Our results allow directing strategies in plant breeding for this crop, and policies to mitigate possible impacts on soybean production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macaúba (Acrocomia aculeata) is a palm tree with a high potential for plant-based raw material production, particularly bioenergy production; it is one of the most promising species for cultivation on marginal lands. This study aimed to determine the distribution of A. aculeata species worldwide and verify the Köppen–Geiger climatic classifications of its locations. Research on the global occurrence of A. aculeata was conducted to characterize the geographic dispersal of macaúba. Based on the distribution points of the species, the Köppen–Geiger classification was determined for each occurrence point. Subsequently, a map was created that showed the regions with potential for the introduction of macaúba based on the climatic data compiled. Macaúba is distributed throughout the American continents, with the highest occurrence rates in Latin America (followed by those in North America and finally Central America). Particularly, Brazil and Mexico exhibit the highest occurrence rates. According to the distribution, the Köppen–Geiger climatic classification determined the predominance of macaúba in the savanna climate. Some countries located in Central Africa, Southern Asia, and Northern Australia showed the potential to introduce macaúba as a bioenergetic source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chrysodeixis includens is a polyphagous pest restricted to the American continent. The occurrence of C. includens is allied, among other factors, by favorable conditions such as temperature, humidity, presence of hosts, and migratory behavior. In this work, we built spatiotemporal species distribution models at continental and global levels for the distribution of C. includens using CLIMEX to determine times and regions favorable for year-round survival and migration of this species and in case of invasion on other continents to apply timely and right phytosanitary measures. Our models estimated high climate suitability for C. includens in Central and large proportions of South America throughout the year. Moreover, there is suitability for C. includens growth in all months of the year in Central and northern part of South America. In the northern hemisphere, these conditions range from April to October, while in mid-southern parts of South America, favorable periods comprise October through June. The countries with the highest suitability for C. includens outside the American continent are located on the African and Asian continents. Our results show variable climate suitability for C. includens during the year that help to understand likely migration pattern in North America. This information would direct efforts for appropriate C. includens management during warm and moist periods of the year. Furthermore, our models notify the need for the development of strategies for the inspection and interception of C. includens especially in central Africa, India, South and Southeast Asia, and Northeast Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sensitivity analysis can categorize levels of parameter influence on a model's output. Identifying parameters having the most influence facilitates establishing the best values for parameters of models, providing useful implications in species modelling of crops and associated insect pests. The aim of this study was to quantify the response of species models through a CLIMEX sensitivity analysis. Using openfield Solanum lycopersicum and Neoleucinodes elegantalis distribution records, and 17 fitting parameters, including growth and stress parameters, comparisons were made in model performance by altering one parameter value at a time, in comparison to the best-fit parameter values. Parameters that were found to have a greater effect on the model results are termed Bsensitive^. Through the use of two species, we show that even when the Ecoclimatic Index has a major change through upward or downward parameter value alterations, the effect on the species is dependent on the selection of suitability categories and regions of modelling. Two parameters were shown to have the greatest sensitivity, dependent on the suitability categories of each species in the study. Results enhance user understanding of which climatic factors had a greater impact on both species distributions in our model, in terms of suitability categories and areas, when parameter values were perturbed by higher or lower values, compared to the best-fit parameter values. Thus, the sensitivity analyses have the potential to provide additional information for end users, in terms of improving management, by identifying the climatic variables that are most sensitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]