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Understanding the variations of the westerly jets (WJs) during the Last Interglacial (~ 127 ka; LIG) aids in deciphering the reconstructed hydrological conditions and dust activities at that time. Here, we investigated variations of the WJs over the Northern Hemisphere during the LIG based on the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 4. We demonstrated that WJs exhibited divergent responses across regions and seasons during the LIG. In summer, WJs over the African–Asian–Pacific regions moved poleward by ~ 5° and weakened by 19% during the LIG, whereas there was only a slight change (+ 1°/− 2%) over the North American–Atlantic regions. In contrast, the winter WJs over the North American–Atlantic regions shifted poleward by ~ 2° and weakened by 7%, but with no obvious responses (− 0.2°/− 0.8%) over the African–Asian–Pacific regions. The WJs variations were linked to changes in meridional temperature gradients and maximum eddy growth rates. Furthermore, the poleward shift and weakening of the WJs over the East Asian–Pacific regions in summer resulted from the anomalous anticyclone triggered by the deep warm center over East Siberia and the anomalous cyclone linked with diabatic cooling over the western tropical Pacific. For the poleward-displaced and depressed WJs over the North American–Atlantic regions in winter, the propagation of Rossby waves from the eastern Pacific played a more important role, compared with the effect of tropical heating. Our work highlights divergent responses of the WJs to orbital forcing during the LIG, which helps to decipher the reconstructed westerlies-related processes and hence to obtain a better understanding of the climate change during this orbitally induced warm period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the behaviors of tropical cyclones (TCs), it is very important to explore how TCs respond to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and natural forcings. Volcanic eruptions are a major natural forcing mechanism because they inject sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere, which modulate the global climate by absorbing and scattering solar radiation. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is thought to be reduced following strong tropical eruptions, but whether the response of TCs varies with the locations of the volcanoes and the different ocean basins remains unknown. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble to investigate the response of the large-scale environmental factors that spawn TCs to strong volcanic eruptions at different latitudes. A composite analysis indicates that tropical and northern hemisphere volcanic eruptions lead to significantly unfavorable conditions for TC genesis over the whole Pacific basin and the North Atlantic during the 3 years post-eruption, relative to the preceding 3 years. Southern hemisphere volcanic eruptions result in obviously unfavorable conditions for TC formation over the southwestern Pacific, but more favorable conditions over the North Atlantic. The mean response over the Indian Ocean is generally muted and insignificant. It should be noted that volcanic eruptions impact on environmental conditions through both the direct effect (i.e. on radiative forcing) and the indirect effect (i.e. on El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which is not differentiated in this study. In addition, the spread of the TC genesis response is considerably large for each category of eruptions over each ocean basin, which is also seen in the observational/proxy-based records. This large spread is attributed to the differences in stratospheric aerosol distributions, initial states and eruption intensities, and makes the short-term forecast of TC activity following the next large eruption challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigation of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is potentially helpful to enable better understanding of future TC behaviors. In this study, we examine variations in large-scale environmental factors important to TC genesis in the last millennium simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3). The results show that potential intensity, a theoretical prediction of the maximum TC intensity, is increased relative to the last millennium in the north part of the WNP in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950-1200 AD) while it is decreased in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1600-1850 AD). Vertical wind shear that generally inhibits TC genesis is enhanced (reduced) to the south of 20°N and is reduced (enhanced) to the north in the MCA (LIA). Relative humidity (at 600 hPa) that measures the mid-tropospheric moisture content broadly shows an increase (decrease) in the MCA (LIA). A genesis potential index indicates that conditions are generally favorable (unfavorable) for TC formation in the WNP in the MCA (LIA), especially in the northern part. Taking changes in steering flows into account, there may be an increasing (decreasing) favorability for storm strikes in East Asia in the MCA (LIA). The estimated TC activity is consistent with the geological proxies in Japan, but contradicts with the typhoon records in southern China and Taiwan. This model-data discrepancy is attributed to the limitations in both simulations and reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the key issues in international climate negotiations is the formulation of targets for emissions reduction for all countries based on the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'. This formulation depends primarily on the quantitative attribution of the responsibilities of developed and developing countries for historical climate change. Using the Commuity Earth System Model (CESM), we estimate the responsibilities of developed countries and developing countries for climatic change from 1850 to 2005 using their carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that developed countries contribute approximately 53%-61%, and developing countries approximately 39%-47%, to the increase in global air temperature, upper oceanic warming, sea-ice reduction in the NH, and permafrost degradation. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of these changes from 1850 to 2005 is primarily attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in developed countries. Although uncertainties remain in the climate model and the external forcings used, GHG emissions in developed countries are the major contributor to the observed climate system changes in the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades, including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate. Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era, as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response (e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the impact of climate change is important for ecosystem conservation and plant recovery, especially in climate sensitive regions. Various studies suggested that the Köppen classification is an effective method to depict climate change. However, these studies were restricted to large scales or of limited accuracy due to uncertainties in climate model projections. In addition, the impact of elevation on the shift of climate zones, as compared with other factors, is less emphasized. To address these issues we compiled the Köppen Climate Classification (period 1961-2010) for the study area, Sichuan Province, China. The spatial resolution was selected as 1 km × 1 km. Sichuan Province may be characterized by 3 main climate classes and 10 subtypes. The east-west gradient of the climatic regimes in Sichuan is represented by the main climate classes, warm temperate climates (C), snow climates (D) and polar climates (E), at which the most abundant class is C. The most abundant subtype is snow climate with dry winter and cool summer (Dwc). Shifts in Köppen climate classes reflect the observed trend of increasing temperature. Finally, the elevation showed an obvious impact on the distribution and the change of climate classes in Sichuan Province. The shift of areas covered by Köppen climate classes increases with elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely believed that the Sahara desert is no more than ∼2-3 million years (Myr) old, with geological evidence showing a remarkable aridification of north Africa at the onset of the Quaternary ice ages. Before that time, north African aridity was mainly controlled by the African summer monsoon (ASM), which oscillated with Earth's orbital precession cycles. Afterwards, the Northern Hemisphere glaciation added an ice volume forcing on the ASM, which additionally oscillated with glacial-interglacial cycles. These findings led to the idea that the Sahara desert came into existence when the Northern Hemisphere glaciated ∼2-3 Myr ago. The later discovery, however, of aeolian dune deposits ∼7 Myr old suggested a much older age, although this interpretation is hotly challenged and there is no clear mechanism for aridification around this time. Here we use climate model simulations to identify the Tortonian stage (∼7-11 Myr ago) of the Late Miocene epoch as the pivotal period for triggering north African aridity and creating the Sahara desert. Through a set of experiments with the Norwegian Earth System Model and the Community Atmosphere Model, we demonstrate that the African summer monsoon was drastically weakened by the Tethys Sea shrinkage during the Tortonian, allowing arid, desert conditions to expand across north Africa. Not only did the Tethys shrinkage alter the mean climate of the region, it also enhanced the sensitivity of the African monsoon to orbital forcing, which subsequently became the major driver of Sahara extent fluctuations. These important climatic changes probably caused the shifts in Asian and African flora and fauna observed during the same period, with possible links to the emergence of early hominins in north Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to estimate the GrIS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 (0-27) cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 (7-33) cm with 2×basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm (10 cm and 13 cm with 2×basal sliding) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]