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Mass mortality of Unionidae from the genera Middendorffinaia, Buldowskia, and Sinanodonta was observed in the plain rivers of the south of Primorsky Krai (south of the Russian Far East) in the abnormally hot and low-water summer–autumn season of 2021. Nodularia douglasiae (Griffith et Pidgeon, 1833) was the most resistant and thus least affected species, the species from the genera Sinanodonta and Middendorffinaia, the least resistant and the most affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change is predicted to have a marked impact on freshwater ecosystems in the High Arctic, including temperature increase, enhanced precipitation, permafrost degradation and increased vegetation cover. These changes in river catchments can alter flow regime, solute transport to streams and substantially affect stream ecosystem functioning. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in stream functioning in a high-Arctic stream in relation to changes in discharge, and runoff flow path. We measured environmental factors, biofilm structure, nutrient uptake rates and metabolism. We studied three reaches in a headwater stream in NE Greenland with different catchment characteristics in early and late summer (during two different years) to evaluate the potential influence of environmental change on Arctic stream ecosystem functioning. Highest nutrient uptake, primary production and ecosystem respiration was found in late summer showing that streams are more efficient at retaining nutrients and have higher autotrophic production, likely due to less impact of snowmelt, and lower discharge increasing the surface to volume ratio between streambed and water column. Nutrient uptake rates in late summer from high-Arctic tundra streams were comparable to uptake rates in temperate pristine streams, likely due to no shading by bank vegetation and longer days in the high-Arctic summer compared to temperate streams. Overall, the results of this study aids in the endeavor of predicting how climate-derived changes will affect in-stream nutrient uptake and metabolism in high-Arctic streams. The results suggest that their capacity to transport, cycle and retain carbon and nutrient may increase if the importance of soil water flow paths for streams also increase, thus with effect to stream trophic relations and solute export to coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems respond to climatic and anthropogenic forcings with regime shifts and reorganizations of their system structures. In river basins, changes in sediment transport can have cascading effects that cause ecosystem regime shifts. The Yellow River, once the world's most sediment-rich river, has experienced dramatic regime shifts. Although recent intervention has returned sediment discharge in the Yellow River to pristine levels, our understanding of previous regime shifts remains inadequate, particularly for the regime shift to a sediment rich period during early historical time. We reanalyzed previous datasets to clarify the first historical sediment transport regime shift in the Yellow River. Our results show that while historical climatic changes (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period, about 900–1100 AD) caused changes in sediment transport, a regime shift occurred only under increased forcing from anthropogenic stresses (started from about 1350 AD, reached the tipping point after 1900 AD). This unique behavior of the Yellow River under increasing anthropogenic forces may provide perspective for sustainable river basin management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential effects of projected climate variability on base flow and groundwater storage in the North Fork Red River aquifer, Oklahoma (USA), were estimated using downscaled climate model data coupled with a numerical groundwater-flow model. The North Fork Red River aquifer discharges groundwater to the North Fork Red River, which provides inflow to Lake Altus. To approximate future conditions, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate data were downscaled to the watershed and a time-series of scaling factors were developed and interpolated for three climate scenarios (central tendency, warmer and drier, and less warm and wetter) representing future climate conditions for the period 2045–2074. These scaling factors were then applied to a soil-water-balance model to produce groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration estimates. A MODFLOW groundwater-flow model of the North Fork Red River aquifer used the scaled recharge and evapotranspiration data to estimate changes in base flow and water-surface elevation of Lake Altus. Compared to a baseline scenario, the mean percent change in annual base flow during 2045–2074 was −10.8 and −15.9% for the central tendency and warmer/drier scenarios, respectively; the mean percent change in annual base flow for the less-warm/wetter scenario was +15.7%. The mean annual percent change in groundwater storage for the central tendency, warmer/drier, and less-warm/wetter climate scenarios and the baseline are −2.7, −3.2, and +3.0%, respectively. The range of outcomes from the climate scenarios may be influenced by variability in the downscaled climate data for precipitation more than for temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Originating in the Tianshan Mountains in arid Central Asia, the natural discharge change of the Naryn River is strongly affected by climate change. As the main source of water for the region, this river is crucial to both the natural environment and the socio-economic development. To extend the discharge record and better understand past and future changes in Naryn River discharge, we developed four tree-ring width chronologies and analyzed the relationship between tree growth and discharge. The resulting reconstruction dates back to 1753 and has an R2 of 0.374 (1939–2017). Interannual discharge variations of the Naryn River indicate that 1917 was the driest year of the past 265 years, while 1956 was the wettest. The record also indicates that the majority of extreme flood years occurred in the past century; prior to about 1900 C.E., the discharge of the Naryn River was relatively stable. Since 1900 C.E., discharge volume has gradually increased, as has discharge variability. At decadal time scales, the 2010s are notable for the frequency of major floods, whereas the 1910s were the driest. Between the 1870s and the 1910s, the Naryn River experienced a period of low discharge that continued for nearly half a century. The discharge of the Naryn River over the past 265 years appears to vary over quasi-periods of 60, 21, 11, and 2-4 years, which are driven by large-scale climate systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporary streams are submitted to high seasonal hydrological variations which induce habitat fragmentation. Global change promotes longer non-flow periods, affecting hydrological continuity and the distribution of biological assemblages in river networks. We aimed to investigate the effects of hydrological discontinuity on phototrophic biofilm assemblages in a Mediterranean stream, at both network and habitat scales. At the network scale during basal flow conditions, mostly nitrate and DOC concentrations were associated to the taxonomical and trait distribution of algae and cyanobacterial assemblages. Cyanobacteria dominated at the upstream and downstream sites of the network, while green algae and diatoms were abundant in its middle part. At the habitat scale, hydrological discontinuity promoted large changes in biofilm composition between riffles and pools, where pools were inhabited preferentially by green algae and riffle habitats by cyanobacteria. Our findings emphasize the myriad of factors affecting the spatial distribution of phototrophic biofilms, which become more heterogeneous according to water flow interruption. Under the predicted climate change scenarios, spatial heterogeneity in temporary streams may increase, which will lead to change phototrophic biofilm assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For two hydrological models, the ECOMAG and SWAP, the hypothesis is checked that a model which has successfully passed the test based on observational data is more efficient for assessing future hydrological consequences of climate change than the models which did not pass the test. The efficiency is evaluated using two criteria: the robustness of a model and the uncertainty of simulation results. Three versions of each model constructed for the basins of the Lena and Mackenzie rivers are examined: the model whose parameters are set a priori (without calibration), the model which was calibrated against runoff hydrographs at the outlet, and the model which was calibrated against runoff hydrographs at several gaging stations of the river network. The estimates of possible changes in the river runoff by the end of the 21st century are obtained using data of global climate models. It is shown that the hydrological model which successfully passed the proposed testing procedure is more effective for assessing climate change impact on the river runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rivers provide crucial ecosystem services in water-stressed drylands. Australian dryland rivers are geomorphologically diverse, ranging from through-going, single channels to discontinuous, multi-channelled systems, yet we have limited understanding of their sensitivity to future hydroclimatic changes. Here, we characterise for the first time the geomorphology of 29 dryland rivers with catchments across a humid to arid gradient covering >1,800,000 km2 of continental eastern and central Australia. Statistical separation of five specific dominantly alluvial river types and quantification of their present-day catchment hydroclimates enables identification of potential thresholds of change. Projected aridity increases across eastern Australia by 2070 (RCP4.5) will result in ~80% of the dryland rivers crossing a threshold from one type to another, manifesting in major geomorphological changes. Dramatic cases will see currently through-going rivers (e.g. Murrumbidgee, Macintyre) experience step changes towards greater discontinuity, characterised by pronounced downstream declines in channel size and local termination. Expanding our approach to include other river styles (e.g. mixed bedrock-alluvial) would allow similar analyses of dryland rivers globally where hydroclimate is an important driver of change. Early identification of dryland river responses to future hydroclimatic change has far-reaching implications for the ~2 billion people that live in drylands and rely on riverine ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme temperatures have increased in intensity, duration and frequency in the last century, with potential consequences on key ecological processes such as organic matter breakdown. Many stream ecosystems are fueled by the breakdown of terrestrial leaf litter, which is exposed to atmospheric conditions for certain periods of time before entering the stream. Thus, extreme warming or freezing events may affect the litter physicochemical structure, which could translate into altered breakdown within the stream. The above prediction was tested by exposing litter of common riparian tree species in southern Chile to freezing (−20 ºC; dry or wet litter) or heating (40 ºC) and comparing breakdown with control litter exposed to room temperature (20 ºC), separating the effects of different breakdown agents (i.e., leaching, microorganisms and detritivores). The greatest effects were found in wet litter subjected to freezing; this treatment significantly increased leaching in the short term (48 h) and slowed down breakdown in the long term (30 days), mostly due to the inhibition of microbial breakdown. Heating also retarded microbial breakdown, but the effect was smaller. Our results suggest that short-term extreme temperatures—particularly cold ones—have the potential to slow down litter breakdown in streams, which will most likely impact global biogeochemical cycles where streams play a key role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic changes have a significant impact on the hydrologic behavior of a river especially its discharge. Sustainable management of water resources necessitates an examination of spatiotemporal variation in climatic parameters such as precipitation and temperature to quantify their relationships with the river discharge. The present study develops both parametric and non-parametric models by modifying the tools of 'R' statistical software (version 3.2.2) to investigate variations in 11 climatic parameters for a 117-year dataset (1900–2017) in Ganges River basin of India. The novelty of the modified hydroclimatic spatiotemporal trend model is its ability to explore seasonal trends and Sen's slopes of climatic parameters while avoiding trend-autocorrelation complications using an advanced Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. Furthermore, relationships among the Sen's slopes of each climatic parameter are assessed to investigate the trend interdependencies. Parametric modeling has been performed to develop relationships among precipitation and remaining climatic parameters. Model validation results suggest non-parametric model to quantify relationships between precipitation and river discharge for a long-term data series. The results demonstrate that the forecasted precipitation exhibits a gradually decreasing trend leading to a significantly decreasing trend in river discharge (15–21%) for the next three decades (2030, 2040 and 2050). The model outcomes guide the water managers towards framing sustainable policies for managing water supplies, floods and droughts, hydropower development, barrage operation control, and environmental flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inland location of Mongolia and its relatively high general elevation above sea level combined with the arid climate favor the formation of the specific hydrological regime of water bodies which are highly vulnerable to climate changes. The formation features and the current state of water resources in Mongolia are considered. A brief description of the main water bodies is given. The available estimates of the impact of anthropogenic factors and climate changes on some components of water balance are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insights from long-term subsistence fisheries data can improve our understanding of the population-specific responses of Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, to environmental conditions. In this study, associations were found between temporal environmental variation and Arctic charr length- and weight-based growth using data from fish captured in the Hornaday River fishery. Overall, spring precipitation and summer air temperature appear to be the most important environmental influences on Arctic charr probably because of their respective impacts on the opportunities for acquiring surplus energy for growth. A pattern of decreasing age-related importance of temperature and increasing age-related importance of precipitation suggested that the coupling between growth and environmental effects varied by life-period. The changing prominence of each variable seems to result from the shift in apportioning energy for increases in length to increases in weight, likely as a result of the onset of maturation. The linkage of population characteristics to environmental conditions provides a baseline reference against which future data may be compared to determine the significance of any observed changes in population characteristics as a result of continuing ecological change in the north. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study was to establish the strength and direction of the relationship between daily temperature of river water and air with the use of selected estimation methods. The relationship was assessed for the River Noteć and its tributaries (Western Poland), using the cross-correlation function and Granger causality. The study established cause-and-effect relations for "water–air" and "air–water" directions of influence. It was confirmed that forecasting the pattern of flowing water temperature from changes in air temperature yields better results when done based on data from the previous day. Results of modelling the relationship between data series with the use of the linear and natural cubic splines models confirmed the presence of a nonlinear relation. It was also established that there is a statistically significant correlation of random fluctuations for both temperature series on the same days. This made it possible to confirm the occurrence of short-term connections between water and air temperature. The results can be used to determine the qualities of thermal regimes and to predict temperature of river waters in the conditions of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, temperature extremes are analyzed for observed (1979-2005) and projected scenarios using three global climate models (GCMs) and their Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets, to investigate the spatio-temporal variations and possible changes in joint probability behavior of temperature extremes over North Sikkim Himalaya, India. Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and copulas are applied to downscale the GCM outputs and to construct joint probability distribution of extremes, respectively. A set of ten climate extreme indices are selected to understand the inter-annual variability. Joint return period of extreme indices was calculated using six temperature extreme indices (based on days). Linear trends were estimated using Mann Kendall test with statistical significance and indicated widespread significant changes in temperature extremes. The significant changes in temperature extremes such as the temperature of warmest night and day have increased by 1.41 and 1.83 °C, and the temperature of coldest night and day has decreased by 3.61 and 4.83 °C, respectively, during 2006-2100 with the baseline period of 1979-2005. The spatial distribution of 5-year return periods and 10-year return periods is almost similar during 1979-2005. There is less co-occurrence of warm nights and days, but higher chance to co-occurrence of cool and warm nights in the same year during 2021-2100. The change in joint return periods under the RCP8.5 shows frequent co-occurrence of cool days and nights, ice and frost days, and cool and frost days than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. This study implies that the warm days, cool days, warmer nights, and cool nights are decreased with increased warming intensity, which shows the overall warming trend over the North Sikkim Himalaya, India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assessed stream ecosystem-level response to a drought-induced defoliation event by gypsy moth caterpillars (Lymantria dispar) with high-frequency water quality sensors. The defoliation event was compared to the prior year of data. Based on long-term records of precipitation and drought indices, the drought of 2015-2016 in Rhode Island, USA was an extreme climatic event that preceded and likely precipitated the defoliation from insect infestation. Canopy cover in the riparian area was reduced by over 50% increasing light availability which warmed the stream and stimulated autotrophic activity. Frass and leaf detritus contributed particulate carbon and organic nutrients to the stream. Based on locally calibrated s::can spectro::lyser data, nitrate concentration and flux did not significantly increase during defoliation while orthophosphate concentration and flux did significantly increase during part of the defoliation period. Lower mean daily dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and wider diel cycles of DO indicated higher biological activity during the defoliation event. Stream metabolism metrics were also significantly higher during defoliation and pointed to heterotrophic activity dominating in the stream. The increases in stream metabolism were low compared to other studies; in streams with higher nutrient levels (e.g., in agricultural or urban watersheds) the increase in light and temperature could have a stronger influence on stream metabolism. The in-stream metabolic processes and nutrient fluxes observed in response to the drought-driven defoliation event resulted from the long-term deployment of high-frequency water sensors. The proliferation of these water sensors now enable studies that assess ecosystem responses to stochastic, unusual disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a changing climate, Arctic streams are expected to show more influence from snowmelt, rainfall and groundwater, and less domination from glacial meltwater sources. Snowmelt streams are characteristic features of Arctic ecosystems, yet our current understanding of longitudinal patterns in benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in these systems is limited when compared to glacier-fed systems. This study characterised longitudinal patterns of macroinvertebrate communities in snowmelt streams in northeast Greenland to provide novel insights into Arctic stream communities as dominant water sources shift with climate change. Benthic macroinvertebrates and environmental variables were sampled at three sites along five streams. Taxa diversity, evenness and abundance were expected to increase with distance from the stream source due to enhanced channel stability and warmer water temperature. This expectation for diversity and evenness was found in two streams, but abundance was up to ten times higher at the upstream sites compared to downstream, where biofilm biomass and ionic load were also highest. Here communities were largely dominated by the genus Eukiefferiella (Chironomidae). In the other three streams, no clear pattern in longitudinal macroinvertebrate community composition was evident due to low channel stability along the entire stream length. This study highlights the considerable variation in macroinvertebrate zonal distribution between snowmelt streams in northeast Greenland. A change towards more snowmelt-dominated streams in the Arctic could lead to shifts in the longitudinal organisation of macroinvertebrate community assemblages and the dominant species as a function of channel stability characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change analysis includes the study of several types of variables such as temperature, precipitation, carbon emission, and streamflow. In this study, we focus on basin hydrology and, in particular, on streamflow values. They are geographic and climatologic indicators utilized in the study of basins. We analyze these values to better understand monthly and seasonal change over a 40-year period for all basins in Turkey. Our study differs from others by applying multivariate analysis into the streamflow data implementations rather than on trend, frequency, and/or distribution-based analysis. The characteristics of basins and climate change effects are visualized and examined with monthly data by using cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling, and gCLUTO (graphical Clustering Toolkit). As a result, we classify months as low-flow and high-flow periods. Multidimensional scaling proves that there is a clockwise movement of months from one decade to the next, which is the indicator of seasonal shift. Finally, the gCLUTO tool is utilized in a novel way in the hydrology field by revealing the seasonal change and visualizing the current changing structure of streamflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many mountainous areas of the world, glaciers serve as a source of fresh water that is of critical importance and contributes to the sustainability of agriculture and other socio-economic activities. An enhanced understanding of socio-economic consequences of the climate-related glacier changes is essential to the identification of vulnerable entities and the development of well-targeted environmental adaptation policies. A questionnaire and interviews of farmers in the Heihe River Basin were used to analyze their perception of cryospheric changes, attitudes towards mitigation of cryospheric changes, and the ways in which they perceived their responsibility. Preferred responses and interventions for cryospheric change and views on responsible parties were also collected and evaluated. Our investigation revealed that most rural residents were concerned about glacier changes and believed they would bring harm to present society, individuals, and families, as well as to future generations. The respondents’ perceptions were mainly influenced by the mass media. Most respondents tended to favor adaptation measures implemented by the government and other policy-making departments. An integrated approach will be needed to deal with the challenges to tackling climate-related glacier change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this work was the estimation of time-space hydraulic (water depth, flow velocity) and morphological (sediment transport and bank erosion) characteristics in the downstream part of a Mediterranean stream under current and future climatic conditions. The two-dimensional hydraulic model MIKE 21C was used, which has been developed specifically to simulate 2D flow and morphological changes in rivers. The model is based on an orthogonal curvilinear grid and comprises two parts: (a) the hydrodynamic part and (b) the morphological changes part. The curvilinear grid and the bathymetry file were generated using a very high-resolution DEM (1 m × 1 m). Time series discharge data from a hydrometric station introduced in the hydrodynamic part of the model. Regarding the morphological part of the model, field measurements of suspended sediment concentration and of bank erosion were used. The model was calibrated and verified using field data that were collected during high and low flow discharges. Model simulation was in good agreement with field observations as indicated by a variety of statistical measures. Next, for predicting the riverbank change, future meteorological data and river flow data for the next 10 years (2017-2027) were employed. These data series were created according to a lower and a higher emission climate change scenario. Based on the results, an increase in rainfall intensity may cause significant changes in river banks after 10 years (more than 5 m of soil loss in river meanders). Using the obtained simulation results, extreme hydrological events such as floods transporting large sediment loads and changes in river morphology can be monitored. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River Basin in Crete, Greece. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The risk and predictability of weather and climate anomalies in Russian regions associated with differen types of El Niño are estimated using long-term data (1891-2015) on surface air temperature, precipitation, and indices of drought and excessive moisture. The probability of anomalies of these parameters in spring and summer months is estimated for different phase transitions of El Niño events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale, and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971-2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 °C (3.3 °C) in 2050s (2080s), whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro, and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia's complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A disturbance or natural event in forested streams that alter available light can have potential consequences for nutrient dynamics and primary producers in streams. In this study, we address how functional processes (primary production and nutrient uptake) in stream ecosystems respond to changes in forest canopy structure. We focus on differences in incoming irradiance, nutrient uptake (NO, NH, and PO) and open-channel metabolism seasonally in 13 forested streams that drain forests with different canopy structures (10 to >300 years old) in the northeastern United States. Light irradiance was related to forest age in a U-shaped pattern, with light being the greatest in both young open forests (<50 years old) and older growth forests (>245 years old), whereas the darkest conditions were found in the secondary growth middle-aged forests (80-158 years old). Streams that had adjacent open or old-growth riparian forest had similar conditions with greater standing stock biofilm biomass (chl a), and elevated ER in October compared to streams with middle-aged riparian forests. Compared to all sites, streams with old-growth riparian forest had the greatest in-stream primary production rates (GPP) and elevated background nutrient concentrations, and to a lesser degree, increased nutrient retention and uptake ( V ). Streams draining older forests tended to be more productive and retentive than middle-aged forests, likely due to increased light availability and the age and structure of surrounding forest canopies. Middle-aged forests had the least variation in response variables compared to streams in young and old-growth riparian forests, likely a result of uniform canopy conditions. As the structure of widespread middle-aged forests in NE US is altered by loss of specific tree species, climate change, and/or human activity, it will impact in-stream production and nutrient dynamics and may ultimately alter nutrient loading in downstream catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according to fish traits. We examined relationships among traits and range shift metrics either singly using univariate linear modeling or combined with multivariate redundancy analysis. We found that trophic and dispersal traits were associated with shifts at the leading and trailing edges, respectively, although projected range shifts were largely unexplained by traits. As expected, piscivores and omnivores with broader diets shifted upslope most at the leading edge while more specialized invertivores exhibited minimal changes. Fishes that were more mobile shifted upslope most at the trailing edge, defying predictions. No traits explained changes in range center or size. Finally, current preference explained multivariate range shifts, as fishes with faster current preferences exhibited smaller multivariate changes. Although range shifts were largely unexplained by traits, more specialized invertivorous fishes with lower dispersal propensity or greater current preference may require the greatest conservation efforts because of their limited capacity to shift ranges under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current scenario of worldwide exponential increase in river impoundment (dams) and the compounded effects of climate change are among the most important threats to freshwater ecosystems. The sharp decline in the biodiversity of impacted rivers demands the enhancement of available tools for biomonitoring and improved approaches for informing environmental decision-making. Here, we demonstrate examples of how fish trait analyses could be used to assess and predict the response of fish communities to damming and how this approach has potential advantages over traditionally used methods by linking suites of traits to stressor effects through plausible cause and effect mechanisms. Using a trait-based analysis is advantageous as it transcends taxonomy, can be applied across broad spatial scales and be easily integrated into current assessment programs. Therefore, it is a promising tool for biomonitoring in freshwater ecosystems. However, some challenges remain in the application of this approach namely the lack of universality of trait-habitat links; the availability, consistency, and applicability of existing trait data; low discriminatory power and poor mechanistic understanding. Nonetheless adaptive river management can benefit from this approach by sustainably operating dams in the light of knowledge on how the functional structure of fish communities are altered, thus enabling essential habitats for fish to be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of grazing and climate change on primary production have been studied widely, but seldom with mechanistic models. We used a Bayesian model to examine the effects of extreme weather and the invertebrate grazer community on epilithic algal biomass dynamics over 10 years (from January 2004 to August 2013). Algal biomass and the invertebrate grazer community were monitored in the upstream drainage of the Dajia River in Taiwan, where extreme floods have been becoming more frequent. The biomass of epilithic algae changed, both seasonally and annually, and extreme flooding changed the growth and resistance to flow detachment of the algae. Invertebrate grazing pressure changes with the structure of the invertebrate grazer community, which, in turn, is affected by the flow regime. Invertebrate grazer community structure and extreme flooding both affected the dynamics of epilithic algae, but in different ways. Awareness of the interactions between algal communities and grazers/abiotic factors can help with the design of future studies and could facilitate the development of management programs for stream ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intermittent streams comprise the majority of stream length in many parts of the world, particularly dry regions. Many dry regions are expected to experience longer and more intense dry periods as the global climate changes. The response of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in intermittent streams to current variability in dry-period duration and intensity may predict their future response to climate change, but such responses require quantification in different stream types and climate zones. I compared the macroinvertebrate community among drier and wetter years from 2008 to 2012 in intermittent forested and pasture streams in a relatively warm, dry region of New Zealand. I predicted that macroinvertebrate communities would decline in density and taxonomic richness with increasing dryness, and that drought-sensitive Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa would show a stronger response than Diptera and non-insects. EPT richness and density did decline with increasing dry period duration, whereas total macroinvertebrate density and richness, and Diptera richness, showed weak and/or non-significant relationships. I predicted that loss of remnant pools (a potential dry-season refuge) would cause a decline in macroinvertebrate richness and density, but found no significant difference between years with and without pools. I predicted that years when flow resumed late in the autumn (when temperatures are too cool for insect flight) would have lower EPT richness and density than years when flow resumed early, and results confirmed this. Intermittent pasture stream communities showed a weaker response to dry period duration than communities in intermittent forested streams, as taxa relatively tolerant of agricultural stressors are also relatively tolerant of drying. Results suggest that global climate change will cause a loss of drought-sensitive species from intermittent streams in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copula-based bivariate frequency analysis can be used to investigate the changes in flood characteristics in the Huai River Basin that could be caused by climate change. The univariate distributions of historical flood peak, maximum 3-day and 7-day volumes in 1961-2000 and future values in 2061-2100 projected from two GCMs (CSIRO-MK3.5 and CCCma-CGCM3.1) under A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios are analyzed and compared. Then, bivariate distributions of peaks and volumes are constructed based on the copula method and possible changes in joint return periods are characterized. Results indicate that the Clayton copula is more appropriate for historical and CCCma-CGCM3.1 simulating flood variables, while that of Frank and Gumbel are better fitted to CSIRO-MK3.5 simulations. The variations of univariate and bivariate return periods reveal that flood characteristics may be more sensitive to different GCMs than different emission scenarios. Between the two GCMs, CSIRO-MK3.5 evidently predicts much more severe flood conditions in future, especially under B1 scenario, whereas CCCma-CGCM3.1 generally suggests contrary changing signals. This study corroborates that copulas can serve as a viable and flexible tool to connect univariate marginal distributions of flood variables and quantify the associated risks, which may provide useful information for risk-based flood control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many boreal waters are currently becoming browner with effects on biodiversity, fish production, biogeochemical processes and drinking water quality. The question arises whether and at which speed this browning will continue under future climate change. To answer the question we predicted the absorbance (a) in 6347 lakes and streams of the boreal region under future climate change. For the prediction we modified a numerical model for a spatial variation which we tested on a temporal scale by simulating a inter-annual variation in 48 out of the 6347 Swedish waters. We observed that inter-annual a variation is strongly driven by precipitation that controls the water flushing through the landscape. Using the predicted worst case climate scenario for Sweden until 2030, i.e., a 32 % precipitation increase, and assuming a 10 % increase in imports of colored substances into headwaters but no change in land-cover, we predict that a in the 6347 lakes and streams will, in the worst case, increase by factors between 1.1 and 7.6 with a median of 1.3. This increase implies that a will rise from the present 0.1-86 m (median: 7.3 m) in the 6347 waters to 0.1-154 m (median: 10.1 m), which can cause problems for the preparation of drinking water in a variety of waters. Our model approach clearly demonstrates that a homogenous precipitation increase results in very heterogeneous a changes, where lakes with a long-term mean landscape water retention time between 1 and 3 years are particularly vulnerable to climate change induced browning. Since these lake types are quite often used as drinking water resources, preparedness is needed for such waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) have had on runoff change; however, the influence of temperature on runoff needs to be further studied. We attempted to employ the improved elasticity method to evaluate the effects of climate factors (CF, especially temperature) on runoff change for Aksu River in the arid region of northwest China. Data from Aksu River in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff and CF during the period of 1960-2010. The key findings of this study indicated that the annual runoff had a significant ( P < 0.01) increasing trend with a rate of 3.78 × 10 m/decade, and the temperature and precipitation also exhibited significant rising trends, at a rate of 0.28 °C/decade ( P < 0.01) and 15.11 mm/decade ( P < 0.05), respectively, while PET showed a decreasing trend (22.66 mm/decade, P < 0.01). Step change point in runoff occurred in the year 1993. Thus, we employed the mean runoff and climate factors during the period 1960-1993 as the benchmark value to measure the change. In 1994-2010, mean runoff increased by 22 %. Results also revealed that temperature rising was the most important factor that increased runoff with contribution of 45 %, while precipitation and PET were responsible for 22 and 27 % of the runoff change, respectively, indicating that the runoff of increasing percentage only accounted for 6 % owing to human activities and other factors, and showed that climate variability was the main reason for the runoff change in Aksu River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the neotectonic activity in the Jura Mountains (northwestern most belt of the European Alps) represents a challenge in the application of quantitative geomorphology to extract landscape metrics and discuss potential coupling between tectonic, climatic and lithospheric mechanisms during the evolution of this mountain belt. The Jura Mountains are characterized by a karst calcareous bedrock, slightly affected by Quaternary glaciations, and by moderated uplift rates (<1 mm/year). In this study, we performed river profile analyses to decipher comparable geomorphological signals along tectonic structures within the entire Jura arc. Our results suggest higher tectonic activity in the High Range of the belt (internal part) than in the External Range, which is discussed in terms of deformation mechanisms. Integration of our results with previous geomorphological, neotectonic and geodetic studies from the literature leads us to propose new potential lithospheric and tectonic mechanism(s) driving the Plio-Quaternary deformation of the Jura Mountains. Our study finally reveals a regional-scale correlation between neotectonic deformations recorded by the Jura drainage network and the predicted isostatic rebound in response to Alpine Quaternary erosion. However, the correlation between our geomorphic signals and compressive structures suggests that the Jura Mountains could be still in horizontal shortening in both the High Range and the External Range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic changes to the temperature regimes of rivers, whether through thermal pollution, removal of shade, or climate change, could affect community stability and cause phenological changes in aquatic species. This study examines the impact of a thermal discharge from a power station on the diversity and composition of the aquatic macroinvertebrate community in the River Severn, UK. Daily temperatures up to 2 km downstream of the thermal discharge averaged 4.5°C above ambient. Abundance and taxon richness metrics were reduced at a site approximately 0.5 km downstream of the power station outfall, but were largely unaffected at a second site about 2 km downstream. The majority of the macroinvertebrate taxa observed were recorded at both control and heated sites, suggesting species were below their thermal tolerance threshold or had developed adaptations to survive increased temperatures. However, indicator species analysis suggests certain taxa were associated with particular sites; abundances of Musculium lacustre, Simulium reptans, and Orthocladiinae were greater at the unheated control site, whereas more pollution-tolerant species such Asellus aquaticus and Erpobdella octoculata were more common in the thermally impacted reaches. Overall, the results provide an indication of potential species and community response to future warming under climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considered is ice jamming, the hazardous ice phenomenon observed at the opening of northern rivers that re suits in significant flooding. Revealed is that maximum water levels in the ice-jam-risk areas of the Sukhona, Tom', and Lena rivers depend on the deterministic contributions of ice jamming factors that vary along with the climate change, and on the realization of different activities breaking natural river ice conditions (excavation of sand and gravel mix from the channel, dumping of warm industrial water, construction of bridges, and preventive actions against ice jams). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerability, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions (Class II WRRs), third-class water resource regions (Class III WRRs), Province-Class II WRRs, and Province-Class III WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class II WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class III WRRs and Province-Class III WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater discharge and non-point source (NPS) loading were evaluated along an urban reach of an eastern-slopes Rocky Mountains river (Bow River, Canada) to understand sources of water-quality impacts and baseflow. The discharge did not increase measurably over a 16-km reach. Groundwater in the river-connected alluvial aquifer was a mixture of river and prairie groundwater, with elevated chloride concentrations (average 379 mg L) from road salt. Alluvial groundwater was the major NPS of chloride discharging to the river. Although the mass-flux based estimates of groundwater discharge were small (mean 0.02 m s km, SD = 0.04 m s km, n = 30), the associated chloride mass flux over 16 km was significant (equivalent to that discharged from the city's largest wastewater-treatment-plant effluent). Although local groundwater baseflow was previously thought to contribute significantly to overwinter baseflow in this reach, little contribution was measured in this study. Low baseflow generation is consistent with long-term river discharge data that show almost all of the baseflow generation occurs in the Rocky Mountain reach. Thus, local watershed areas are important for water-quality protection, but climate change in the headwaters is most salient to long-term flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of global and regional climate change and heightened human activities, runoff from some rivers in the world, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions, has significantly decreased. To reveal the varying characteristics leading to the change in runoff, detecting the influencing factors has been important in recent scientific discussions for water resources management in drainage basins. In this paper, an investigation into attributing the runoff response to climate change and human activities were conducted in two catchments (Wushan and Shetang), situated in the upper reaches of Weihe River in China. Prior to the identification of the factors that influenced runoff changes, the Mann-Kendall test was adopted to identify the trends in hydro-climate series. Also, change-points in the annual runoff were detected through Pettitt's test and the precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve method. It is found that both catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff and the detected change-point in runoff occurs in 1993. Hence, the pre-change period and post-change period are defined before and after 1993, respectively. Then, runoff response to climate change and human activities was quantitatively evaluated on the basis of hydrologic sensitivity analysis and hydrologic model simulation. They provided similar estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the post-change period over the considered catchments. It is found that the decline in annual runoff over both catchments can be mainly attributed to the human activities, the reduction percentages due to human activities range from 59 to 77 %. The results of this study can provide a reference for the development, utilization and management of the regional water resources and ecological environment protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree-day factor (DDF) is a key parameter in the degree-day model, and the variations in DDF have the significant effects on the accuracy of glacier mass balance modeling. In this study, Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of Ürümqi (乌鲁木齐) River in China was selected, and the estimated DDF by stakes-observed mass balance and meteorological data from 1983–2006 was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of DDF and its influencing factors, such as climate condition, surface feature, and topography. Then, the ablations from the 1980s to 2000s were estimated using the degree-day model, and the ablation change from the 1980s to 2000s was divided into the changes caused by climate change and by the ice-surface feature. The following results were obtained: (1) The annual change in DDF for snow was not obvious, whereas that for ice increased, and the increasing trend on the lower glacier was more significant than that on the upper glacier because of decreased albedo caused by variations in ice-surface feature; (2) The DDF for ice clearly decreased with altitude by approximately 0.046 and 0.043 mm·°C −1·d −1·m −1 on the east and west branches, respectively, and the DDF of the west branch was obviously larger than that of the east branch in the same altitude belt; (3) the changes in mass balance in the summers from the 1980s to 2000s were −391 and −467 mm on the east and west branches, respectively. Among the total changes, the components directly caused by climate change were −193 and −198 mm, whereas those indirectly caused by ice-surface feature change were −198 and −269 mm on the east and west branches, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the optimization of approaches for stimulating the chemical composition of the river water. Topics discussed include changing climate and strengthening the anthropogenic effect on nature, predicting the chemical composition of natural waters, and to reveal the ways how water composition forms an adequate model. It also discusses a method for constructing a model of the chemical composition of river water.

Although the California mediterranean climate region is widely considered a biodiversity hotspot for terrestrial plants and vertebrates, freshwater biodiversity in this region is generally not well known. Using information from museum specimen databases, published literature, biological assessment surveys, and specialist's knowledge, we review freshwater biodiversity for several groups of stream organisms in the med-climate region of California, which includes 2,220 species in 292 families. The groups with the highest diversity of lotic species are aquatic insects and diatoms, which comprise 39 and 36 % of species in our lists, respectively. Sequential floods and drying periods limit the overall biodiversity of many stream organisms in California mediterranean rivers, and continued climate and land-use change may cause disproportionate biodiversity declines in the region. However, only 4 % of lotic species have been evaluated in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, and many assessments are outdated. Future development of online databases for botanical and zoological collections will significantly enhance biodiversity and distribution knowledge. This information will enable us to more accurately and efficiently assess the effects of global change on biodiversity of freshwater organisms, to evaluate conservation status of individual taxa, and to set conservation priorities for stream ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Streams and rivers in mediterranean-climate regions (med-rivers in med-regions) are ecologically unique, with flow regimes reflecting precipitation patterns. Although timing of drying and flooding is predictable, seasonal and annual intensity of these events is not. Sequential flooding and drying, coupled with anthropogenic influences make these med-rivers among the most stressed riverine habitat worldwide. Med-rivers are hotspots for biodiversity in all med-regions. Species in med-rivers require different, often opposing adaptive mechanisms to survive drought and flood conditions or recover from them. Thus, metacommunities undergo seasonal differences, reflecting cycles of river fragmentation and connectivity, which also affect ecosystem functioning. River conservation and management is challenging, and trade-offs between environmental and human uses are complex, especially under future climate change scenarios. This overview of a Special Issue on med-rivers synthesizes information presented in 21 articles covering the five med-regions worldwide: Mediterranean Basin, coastal California, central Chile, Cape region of South Africa, and southwest and southern Australia. Research programs to increase basic knowledge in less-developed med-regions should be prioritized to achieve increased abilities to better manage med-rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary of the middle and lower Yellow River below the Sanmenxia Dam. Hydro-climatic variables have changed in the Yiluo River during the last half century. In this study, the trends in the annual precipitation and streamflow were analyzed in the Yiluo River during 1960-2006. The results indicated that both the annual precipitation and streamflow decreased significantly ( P < 0.05) from 1960 to 2006. Pettitt's test shows that there was a change point for annual streamflow series around the year 1986 ( P < 0.05), while there was no change point identified for the annual precipitation series from 1960 to 2006. Annual streamflow decreased more significantly than annual precipitation since 1986. The relationship between the annual precipitation and streamflow presented a non-stationary state since 1986. This non-stationary relationship was mainly influenced by human activities. The average annual amount of water diversion from the Yiluo River increased significantly since the mid-1980s, accounting for 31.3 % of the total streamflow decrease from 1986 to 2006. In addition, land use/cover change (LUCC) contributed to 27.1-29.8 % of the decrease in streamflow. Human activities, including water diversion and LUCC, together contributed to 58.4-61.1 % of the decrease in streamflow and led to the non-stationary relationship between the annual precipitation and streamflow from 1986 to 2006. This study detected the changes in the precipitation-streamflow relationship and investigated the possible causes in the Yiluo River, which will be helpful for the understanding of the changes in streamflow in the Yellow River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Karst areas have much higher ecological vulnerability and are easy to be contaminated by polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) which are introduced as health risk pollutants. PCBs concentrations were used to understand the transport behavior of PCBs conducted in the karst Nanshan Underground River, China. Water and sediments from the underground river water, and sediments and soil from the surface of the corresponding watershed were collected monthly in 2011 and 2012 and PCBs were analyzed. Seasonal variations were found in concentrations of PCBs both in the waters and sediments. PCBs concentrations varied from 0.3 to 29.9 ng·L in the groundwater, while from 0.1 to 366.1 ng·g in the underground sediments. Correlations were found in concentrations of PCBs in waters and sediments between the underground river and surface systems which indicate that the surface systems play a major role for the transport of PCBs and contamination in the underground river systems. Karst features are liable for the transport behavior. The underground river waters transport PCBs at mean 3 g·day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flow and temperature are strongly linked environmental factors driving ecosystem processes in streams. Stream temperature maxima ( T) and stream flow minima ( Q) can create periods of stress for aquatic organisms. In mountainous areas, such as western North America, recent shifts toward an earlier spring peak flow and decreases in low flow during summer/fall have been reported. We hypothesized that an earlier peak flow could be shifting the timing of low flow and leading to a decrease in the interval between T and Q. We also examined if years with extreme low Q were associated with years of extreme high T. We tested these hypotheses using long-term data from 22 minimally human-influenced streams for the period 1950-2010. We found trends toward a shorter time lag between T and Q over time and a strong negative association between their magnitudes. Our findings show that aquatic biota may be increasingly experiencing narrower time windows to recover or adapt between these extreme events of low flow and high temperature. This study highlights the importance of evaluating multiple environmental drivers to better gage the effects of the recent climate variability in freshwaters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly all freshwaters and coastal zones of the US are degraded from inputs of excess reactive nitrogen (Nr), sources of which are runoff, atmospheric N deposition, and imported food and feed. Some major adverse effects include harmful algal blooms, hypoxia of fresh and coastal waters, ocean acidification, long-term harm to human health, and increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Nitrogen fluxes to coastal areas and emissions of nitrous oxide from waters have increased in response to N inputs. Denitrification and sedimentation of organic N to sediments are important processes that divert N from downstream transport. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly important denitrification hotspots. Carbon storage in sediments is enhanced by Nr, but whether carbon is permanently buried is unknown. The effect of climate change on N transport and processing in fresh and coastal waters will be felt most strongly through changes to the hydrologic cycle, whereas N loading is mostly climate-independent. Alterations in precipitation amount and dynamics will alter runoff, thereby influencing both rates of Nr inputs to aquatic ecosystems and groundwater and the water residence times that affect Nr removal within aquatic systems. Both infrastructure and climate change alter the landscape connectivity and hydrologic residence time that are essential to denitrification. While Nr inputs to and removal rates from aquatic systems are influenced by climate and management, reduction of N inputs from their source will be the most effective means to prevent or to minimize environmental and economic impacts of excess Nr to the nation's water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aim: Because the indigenous burrowing lagomorph plateau pika ( Ochotona curzoniae) is considered to have negative ecological impacts on alpine meadow steppe grasslands of the Headwaters Region of the Yellow, Yangtze and Mekong Rivers we investigated its effects on ecosystem productivity and soil properties, and especially net ecosystem carbon flux. Methods: We measured net ecosystem CO exchange (NEE) and its components gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at peak aboveground biomass by the chamber method with reference to plant and soil characteristics of areas of alpine meadow steppe with different densities of pika burrows. Results: Higher burrow density decreased NEE, GEP and ER. Above-ground biomass, species number, plant cover and leaf area index decreased with increasing pika density. Higher burrow density was associated with lower soil moisture and higher soil temperature. Responses of NEE were related to changes of abiotic and biotic factors affecting its two components. NEE was positively related to soil moisture, soil ammonium nitrogen, plant cover, leaf area index and above-ground biomass but was negatively correlated with higher soil nitrate nitrogen. Conclusion: Decrease of NEE by plateau pika may reduce the carbon sink balance of Qinghai-Tibet plateau grassland. Such effects may be influenced by grazing pressure from domestic livestock, population levels of natural predators, and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU-funded research project WISER ('Water bodies in Europe: Integrative Systems to assess Ecological status and Recovery') developed new assessment methods required by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) for lakes, coastal and transitional waters. WISER also addressed the recovery of biotic assemblages from degradation. The results are summarised in five key messages, supported by papers in this special issue and by WISER results published elsewhere: (1) Response to stress differs between organism groups, water types and stressors; a conceptual model is proposed summarising how the individual organism groups respond to different types of degradation in rivers, lakes, transitional and coastal waters. (2) The sources of uncertainty differ between BQEs and water types, leading to methodological suggestions on how to design WFD sampling programmes. (3) Results from about 300 current assessment methods indicate geographical variations in metrics but assessments are comparable at an aggregated level ('ecological status'). (4) Scale and time matter; restoration requires action at (sub)-basin levels and recovery may require decades. (5) Long-term trends require consideration; the effects of both degradation and restoration at the water body or river basin scales is increasingly superimposed by multiple stressors acting at large scales, in particular by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed a methodology to predict brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution using summer temperature metrics as predictor variables. Our analysis used long-term fish and hourly water temperature data from the Dog River, Vermont (USA). Commonly used metrics (e.g., mean, maximum, maximum 7-day maximum) tend to smooth the data so information on temperature variation is lost. Therefore, we developed a new set of metrics (called event metrics) to capture temperature variation by describing the frequency, area, duration, and magnitude of events that exceeded a user-defined temperature threshold. We used 16, 18, 20, and 22°C. We built linear discriminant models and tested and compared the event metrics against the commonly used metrics. Correct classification of the observations was 66% with event metrics and 87% with commonly used metrics. However, combined event and commonly used metrics correctly classified 92%. Of the four individual temperature thresholds, it was difficult to assess which threshold had the 'best' accuracy. The 16°C threshold had slightly fewer misclassifications; however, the 20°C threshold had the fewest extreme misclassifications. Our method leveraged the volumes of existing long-term data and provided a simple, systematic, and adaptable framework for monitoring changes in fish distribution, specifically in the case of irregular, extreme temperature events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study is aimed to: (a) project future low flow conditions in the five largest river basins in Germany, and (b) to account for the projections uncertainties. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was driven by different regional climate models (REMO, CCLM, and Wettreg) to simulate daily river discharges in each study basin. The 50-year low flow was estimated for the period 1961 to 2000, and its return period was assessed for two scenario periods, 2021-2060 and 2061-2100, using the generalized extreme value distribution. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern, and parts of central Germany after 2061, as suggested by more than or equal to 80% of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until late autumn at the end of this century. The return period of 50-year deficit volume shows a similar temporal and spatial pattern of change as for the low flow, indicating slightly less severe conditions with lower confidence. When compared with flood projections for the same area using the same models, the severer low flows projected in this study appear more pronounced, consistent, and have lower uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Province, China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model (HadCM3) coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009. The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series, derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435°C per decade, and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade. Compared with other seasons, the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend, while a significant upward trend in autumn. The annual streamflow demonstrates a general downward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m/s per decade. The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn, respectively. The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m/s per decade, which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow. The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are 10,091 km of peatlands in Estonia and human activities may have changed the role of northern peatlands from global sinks to global sources of carbon. The aim of this work was to explain the changes in organic carbon exports from eleven Estonian rivers in the period 1992-2007 in terms of land use change, climate change quantified by trends in stream-water discharge and hydrological droughts and reductions in atmospheric sulfate quantified by change in water chemistry. Direct TOC (total organic carbon) measurements had been initiated in 1998. We used CODKMnO (permanganate oxygen consumed) as its surrogate for the whole time span (Spearman's determination coefficient in six small northern Estonian rivers 0.95 > ρ > 0.72; p < 0.01). The Mann-Kendall test revealed significant trends in the TOC proxy in five small rivers in northern Estonia (M-K stat > 2.35; p < 0.05). The trends in the eleven investigated streams correlated closely with the increased 28 ratios of drought days (Spearman's ρ = 0.68; p < 0.01). The correlations with land use compositions, decreases in water discharges and SO concentrations were insignificant ( p > 0.05). We conclude that the main factor in the increase of organic carbon export is the deepening of droughts driven by climate change, magnified by man-made drainage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]