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Although most fire research in plant ecology focuses on vegetation responses to burning, shifts in plant community composition wrought by climate change can change wildland fuelbeds and affect fire behaviour such that the nature of fire in these systems is altered. Changes that introduce substantially different fuel types can alter the spatial extent of fire, with potential impacts on community succession and biodiversity. Montane grasslands of sub-Saharan Africa are threatened by climate change because species distributions can shift with climatically determined ranges. We studied the impact of patches of the temperate C3 grass Festuca costata in C4-dominated grassland at the transition between their subalpine ranges in South Africa’s Drakensberg. We used empirical data on fuel moisture and fuel load across F. costata-dominated patches in a C4-dominated matrix in fire spread models to predict the effect of larger, higher-moisture F. costata patches on the spatial extent of fire. Results indicate F. costata reduces fire spread and burn probability in F. costata patches, and the effect increases as live fuel moisture increases and patches get larger. However, as a native species, F. costata does not appear to have the extreme, fire-suppressing effect of non-native C3 grasses in other C4 grasslands. Instead, F. costata patches likely increase variability in the spatial extent of fire in this C4-dominated grassland, which likely translates to spatial variability on vegetation succession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species are shifting their ranges in response to global climate change, thus intensifying the need to predict such changes accurately. As the environmental requirements controlling plant distribution act differently at each developmental stage, there is a need to acquire a demographic-specific understanding of the factors which determine these distributions. Here we investigated the germination niche of two common savanna species Acacia nigrescens and Colophospermum mopane, with the aims to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of temperature on seed germination and establishment and to explore the impact of higher temperatures on the establishment success of savanna trees. Under laboratory conditions, we used thermal gradient plates to determine the thermal germination niche of both species, and a water stress experiment was conducted on C. mopane to account for water-temperature interactions. Using these data we parameterised a soil-moisture model to determine germination and establishment success under field conditions at current and future temperatures (+4 °C). Based on this model, higher future temperatures will not limit germination directly, but they will reduce the number of germination events by reducing the time window of suitable available soil water. Conversely, warmer conditions will accelerate the rate of radicle extension and increase the frequency of seedling establishment events. An additional advantage of higher temperatures is that fewer seeds will germinate, resulting in slower seed bank depletion when successful seedling establishment events do occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]