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International water resources have been a source of contention in many parts of the world over the last few decades and such conflicts may grow in frequency and severity as future climatic changes alter the quantity or quality of limited water resources. Indeed, some future climatic changes appear inevitable due to growing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases. Unless mechanisms for incorporating climatic changes into water agreement can be worked out, these changes may provoke further frictions and conflicts. One region with a history of political conflict over shared water resources is the Colorado River Basin in the United States and Mexico. While past disagreements over water have mostly been resolved, future climatic changes that adversely affect the existing hydrologic regime of the basin cannot be discounted. This paper examines the possibility that future long-term climatic changes may exacerbate shortages in the Colorado River. Political conflicts and tensions that arise from reductions in water supply in both the United States and Mexico are evaluated and discussed, together with recommendations for incorporating the issue of climatic change into existing international treaties and agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marion Island (47°S, 38°E) has one of the most oceanic climates on earth, with consistently low air temperatures, high precipitation, constantly high humidity, and low incident radiation. Since 1968 mean surface air temperature has increased significantly, by 0.025° C year. This was strongly associated with corresponding changes in sea surface temperature but only weakly, or not at all, with variations in radiation and precipitation. We suggest that changing sealevel (atmospheric and oceanic) circulation patterns in the region underlie all of these changes. Sub-Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by being species-poor and having a simple trophic structure. Marion Island is no exception and a scenario is presented of the implications of climatic change for the structure and functioning of its ecosystem. Primary production on the island is high and consequently the vegetation has a large annual requirement for nutrients. There are no macroherbivores and even the insects play only a small role as herbivores, so most of the energy and nutrients incorporated in primary production go through a detritus, rather than grazing, cycle. Ameliorating temperatures and increasing CO levels are expected to increase productivity and nutrient demand even further. However, most of the plant communities occur on soils which have especially low available levels of nutrients and nutrient mineralization from organic reserves is the main bottleneck in nutrient cycling and primary production. Increasing temperatures will not significantly enhance microbially-mediated mineralization rates since soil microbiological processes on the island are strongly limited by waterlogging, rather than by temperature. The island supports large numbers of soil macro-arthropods, which are responsible for most of the nutrient release from peat and litter. The activities of these animals are strongly temperature dependent and increasing temperature will result in enhanced nutrient availability, allowing the potential for increased primary production due to elevated temperature and CO levels to be realized. However, housemice occur on the island and have an important influence on the ecosystem, mainly by feeding on soil invertebrates. The mouse population is strongly temperature-limited and appears to be increasing, possibly as a result of ameliorating temperatures. We suggest that an increasing mouse population, through enhanced predation pressure on soil invertebrates, will decrease overall rates of nutrient cycling and cause imbalances between primary production and decomposition. This, along with more direct effects of mice (e.g. granivory) has important implications for vegetation succession and ecosystem structure and functioning on the island. Some of these are already apparent from comparisons with nearby Prince Edward Island where mice do not occur. Other implications of climatic change for the island are presented which emphasize the very marked influences that invasive organisms have on ecosystem structure and functioning. We suggest that changing sealevel circulation patterns, by allowing opportunities for colonization by new biota, may have an even more important influence on terrestrial sub-Antarctic ecosystems than is suggested merely on the basis of associated changes in temperature or precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A possible response to increasing atmospheric CO concentration is to attempt to increase the amount of carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation. One approach to increasing the size of the terrestrial carbon sink is to increase the growth of forests by utilizing intensive forest management practices. This article uses data from the literature and from forest growth and yield models to analyze the impact of three management practices on carbon storage: thinning, fertilization, and control of competing vegetation. Using Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii) and loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda) as example species, results from experiments with computer simulation models suggest that, for these two species, thinning generally does not increase carbon storage and may actually cause a decrease. The exception is thinning of very dense young stands. Fertilization generally increases carbon storage, although the response can be quite variable. The largest gains in carbon storage are likely to come from fertilizing lower-quality sites and from fertilizing thinned or less dense stands. Forests usually show increased growth in response to fertilization over a wide range of ages. Simulation of the growth of loblolly pine indicates that controlling competing vegetation at an early age helps to maximize stand growth and carbon storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on climate change and the economic value of information. Increased atmospheric concentrations of radiatively active gases are expected to cause mean global temperatures to rise 2&degree;C to 5&degree;C over the next century. Response to climate change might be averting or adaptive either by explicit design or as the serendipitous consequence of some other policy. Evaluation of the efficacy of any averting response, even though it would be imposed globally in all likelihood, should certainly be based upon some aggregate measure of regional effects scattered around the globe; and it should certainly include the potential for complementary adaptive response, which might be undertaken simultaneously.

The U.S. appears to be misdefining the policy problem posed by the threat of global climate change, and is therefore not likely to find satisfactory policy solutions. The dominant definitions of the policy problem - alleging certain scientific, economic, and political barriers to effective policy - circumscribe the search for policy solutions. But those 'solutions' meet neither practical criteria of rationality nor the test of practical experience. We seem to be trapped within problem definitions that reflect and reinforce the convergence of powerful interests with elements of the culture. The problem may be a culture that fails to integrate science-based technologies for mastering nature with ethical or political constraints on their use and therefore jeopardizes its own sustain ability. If so, then reasoned action begins with political leadership that challenges selected elements of the dominant culture and directs attention to alternatives - thereby opening up the search for solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the different effects of climate, and the likely impact of climatic change, on the human being, his health and well-being. Those effects follow from consideration of the human energy budget and air pollution, including photooxidants and radiation, the latter especially in the UV-range. The development of tools to produce bioclimate maps, i.e. maps expressed in physiologically significant terms, in different scales up to the high resolution necessary for the microscale urban climate, will be discussed. The most important questions in bioclimate research and its application will be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of four northern deciduous tree species to annual climate variation is quantified at two intensively measured sites in northern Michigan, USA. Response to changes in temperature and moisture differ with the species and is dependent on other site conditions. Relationships identified in these field studies indicate that projected climate changes may have dramatic effects on the productivity of at least some commercially important tree species in the northern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses papers by Lehman and Leigwin and Veum et al in the April 30, 1992 issue of `Nature' and their expected impact on notions of the influence which deep ocean circulation can have on the climate. The Younger Dryas cold episode as a clue to the climate's inner workings; Work of Jansen and Veum from Bergen who used microfossil carbon isotope data to suggest that a deep convection continued in the North Atlantic even during the Younger Dryas cold period.

Analyzes the social aspects of the global climate change policy-making process in China. Evolution of China's environmental policy from 1949; Summary of the position held by the Chinese government on the subject of global warming; implications for technology policy; Environmental impact assessment.

High quality temperature measurements have been made to depths of 30 to 220 m at 42 sites in 62 observational hydrogeological wells in Alberta. The temperature profiles commonly show near-surface inversions with a minimum temperature at depths of 30 to 50 m. Thermal modelling suggests a surface temperature history with warming reaching 2°C over the past 30 to 60 years. Recent climate warming evident from the analysis of the air temperature data in the region seems to provide at least a partial explanation of the increased ground temperatures. A sudden increase of the surface ground temperature caused by land clearing may be the other explanation, although modelling of such a sudden increase can only explain the observed temperature-depth data if the onset of such warming is 20-30 years old, which is in disagreement with the history of land development in the studied area. The effect of near-surface inversions of the temperature profiles also has been observed in the forested areas. The above support the climate based effect. The superposition of the climatic effect and man-made activity effect upon the ground warming is a very complicated process calling for considerably more research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The larch bud-moth cycle has been observed in the sub-alpine larch-cembran pine forests 16 times since 1850. Infestation is easily recognized by the characteristic red-brown discoloration of the larch crowns due to the wasteful feeding of the bud moth larvae. The heaviest defoliation recurs at intervals of 8.47±0.27 (SE) years, and the larval density per kilogram of larch branches varies more than 10000-fold over four or five generations. The basic regulatory mechanism for this cycle is the induced change in food quality for the two or more subsequent larval generations. Defoliation functions as a negative feedback mechanism acting on larval density. In 1989 local discoloration in the Upper Engadine valley was observed in the usual first focus. In 1990 and 1991, however, instead of the expected widespread defoliation damage, larval densities decreased drastically. Based on extensive field data collected from 1961 to 1991 on the development and the survival of the bud moth ( Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) and the phenology of the host, Larix decidua L., this paper shows the effect of weather on survival in the egg stage and on the coincidence of larval hatching with the sprouting of the larch. It is shown that the winter and spring weather conditions in 1989-1991 were conducive to unusually high egg mortality. Since these conditions occurred in three successive generations, population growth was effectively reduced and the cycle collapsed prematurely. Thus the rather persistent cyclicity of the larch-larch bud-moth system was disturbed by weather conditions with a very low probability of occurrence, but due to the inherent high resilience of the system, the next population peak with visible defoliation is expected to occur 1996/1997, provided that the weather conditions return to the climatic standard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to discuss the potential impact of a global warming on various aspects of human health. Changes in heat-related mortality are estimated for four countries: the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China and Egypt. In addition, the potential confounding impact of increased air pollution is considered. Finally, a framework to analyze two vector-borne diseases, onchocerciasis and malaria, which may spread if temperatures increase, is discussed. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality is estimated to rise significantly in all four countries if the earth warms, with the greatest impacts in China and Egypt. The most sensitive areas are those with intense but irregular heat waves. In the United States, air pollution does not appear to impact daily mortality significantly when severe weather is present, although it seems to have a slight influence when weather conditions are not stressful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palaeoecological investigations of a small mire in Ötztal, Tyrol, Austria, situated about 50 m above the potential tree-line, indicates that human impact on the landscape started with burning of heath at approximately 5300 B.P. At about 4800 B.P. a weak increase in important apophytes may reflect the local presence of domestic animals. Between 4000 and 3500 B.P. a clear decline in pastoral activity occurred. From 3000 B.P. a strong increase in the representation of apophytes suggests local summer settlement, while in the interval 2600-2200 B.P. anthropogenic activity declined. After 2150 B.P. there was a marked increase in summer farm activity. Fresh information is presented on tree-line fluctuations during the Holocene: Pinus cembra forest ascended above the present potential tree-line by more than 50-100 m between 9000-8000 B.P., 6000-5500 B.P., and 3800-3000 B.P. A Betula maximum between 7000 and 5500 B.P. is probably due to succession in nearby avalanche tracks, as well as to a higher tree-line. Low humification and low loss-on-ignition values around 6000 B.P. may reflect the Frosnitz stadial (6900-6000 B.P.). The Rootmoos I stadial (5400 B.P.) and probably the early Sub-Atlantic stadial maximum (3000-2300) are also reflected in the physical properties of the peat profile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of human activities on environment and climate change is the most conspicuous problem of the Loess Plateau, and it may be divided into two aspects: firstly, the excessive utilization of land by the human race causes the destruction of vegetation, and consequently large expanse of land is under desertification and the characteristics of the ground surface and the water and heat exchange on the ground surface have changed; secondly, the use of coal by industries produces a huge amount of carbon dioxide and trace elements, which enter into the atmosphere to cause air pollution. Data of 1951-1990 are collected from 69 meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau. After analysis, the decadal variations of temperature and rainfall in the last 40 years are obtained as follows: (1) In the arid zone of the north- west of the Loess Plateau, the increase in temperature is the largest. For the past 40 years, the annual mean temperature has increased 0.7-1.0°C. In the semiarid zone of the middle part of the plateau, the annual mean temperature has increased 0.1-0.5°C, while in the subhumid zone of the southern part, temperature remains almost constant and even has a slight decrease. (2) For the past 40 years, the large and middle-sized cities have the largest temperature increase, especially the new developing cities. (3) For the past 40 years, the rainfall has decreased in the most part of the Loess Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A manipulation experiment was carried out on a field population of the aphid Acyrthosiphon svalbardicum near Ny Ålesund, on the high arctic island of Spitsbergen, using cloches to raise temperature. An average rise in temperature of 2.8 deg. C over the summer season markedly advanced the phenology of both the host plant Dryas octopetala and the aphid. Advanced aphid phenology, with concomitant increases in reproductive output and survival, and successful completion of the life-cycle led to an eleven-fold increase in the number of overwintering eggs. Thermal budget requirements in day degrees above 0°C were calculated for key life-cycle stages of the aphid. Temperature data from Ny Ålesund over the past 23 years were used to calculate thermal budgets for the field site over the same period and these were compared with the requirements of the aphid. Each estimated thermal budget was then adjusted to simulate the effect of a +2, +4, and −2deg. C change in average temperature on aphid performance. This retrospective analysis (i) confirms that the life-cycle of A. svalbardicum is well suited to exploit higher summer temperatures, (ii) indicates that the annual success of local populations are sensitive to small changes in temperature and (iii) suggests that the aphid is living at the limits of its thermal range at Ny Ålesund based on its summer thermal budget requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area ( A), maximum depth ( H), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth ( Z). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms of a stratification parameter A/ H and Secchi depth Z. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted (monthly) by the 2 × CO GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above 7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2-8 mg/liter. Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid increase of atmospheric CO resulting from anthropogenic activites has stimulated a great deal of interest in the carbon cycle. Important decisions need to be made about future tolerable levels of atmospheric CO content, as well as the land and fossil fuel use strategies that will permit us to achieve these goals. The vast amount of new data on atmospheric CO content and ancillary properties that has become available during the last decade, and the development of models to interpret these data, have led to significant advances in our capacity to deal with such issues. However, a major continuing source of uncertainty is the role of photosynthesis in providing a sink for anthropogenic emissions. It is thus appropriate that a new evaluation of the status of our understanding of this issue should be made at this time. The aim of this paper is to provide a setting for the papers that follow by giving an overview of the role of carbon dioxide in climate, the biogeochemical processes that control its distribution, and the evolution of carbon dioxide through time from the origin of the earth to the present. We begin with a discussion of relevant processes. We then proceed to a more detailed discussion of the time periods that are best documented: the late Pleistocene (during which time large continental ice sheets waxed and waned) and the modern era of anthropogenic impact on the carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the basis of distribution maps showing the first pollen occurrences in the Holocene of the well-known climate indicators Hedera, Ilex and Viscum as well as data for Corylus, a series of maps have been prepared that show summer and winter isotherms at various time intervals during the Holocene. From these maps climate curves for Amsterdam, the Netherlands have been set out. These were compared with curves for the Eemian at the same site. In both of these warm periods there is evidence for increased seasonality in the early phases which were relatively continental. Changes in insolation could account for such differences. Summer optima occurred earlier than winter optima. Changes in land-sea distribution are important, especially with regard to the patterns in winter climate. During the latter half of the Eemian, the climate was distinctly more oceanic than in the Holocene. Early in the Holocene, an influx of warm ocean water resulted in higher winter temperatures in the Gulf of Biscay, the Irish Sea, and areas east of Skagerrak-Kattegat. Temperature decline after the climatic optimum was greatest in the north, i.e. at 60°N, where a depression in the order of 2°C in summer and 2-3°C in winter occurred. Temperature decline was less farther south, i.e. at ca. 50°N, where a distinct west-east gradient in temperature change can be observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global mean surface temperature may rise by about 0.3° C per decade during the next few decades as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the earth's atmosphere. The data generated in the greenhouse warming simulations (Business-as-Usual scenario of IPCC) with the climate models developed at Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg have been used to assess future plausible hydrological scenario for the South Asian region. The model results indicate enhanced surface warming (2.7°C for summer and 3.6°C for winter) over the land reginos of South Asia during the next hundred years. While there is no significant change in the precipitation over most of the land regions during winter, substantial increase in precipitation is likely to occur during summer. As a result, an increase in soil moisture is likely over central India, Bangladesh and South China during summer but a statistically significant decline in soil moisture is expected over central China in winter. A moderate decrease in surface runoff may occur over large areas of central China during winter while the flood prone areas of NE-India, Bangladesh and South China are likely to have an increase in surface runoff during summer by the end of next century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale environmental research efforts are conducted under frameworks that provide a common basis for evaluating research in many diverse fields. Such frameworks should be subjected to critical review to determine if they meet crucial expectations. In the case of the US Global Change Research Program, we perceive that most research follows a framework that we define as the predictive model framework. We believe this framework is insufficient for resolving the unprecedented predicaments posed by global change. We recommend a complementary framework, the system response framework, which directs research toward useful indicators of change rather than precise predictions. We further argue that, even if research is complementary and effective under the two frameworks, conclusive results prior to decisions should not be expected. The burden of proof must itself be a continuing topic of open discourse and inquiry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential CO-induced impacts on the geographical shifts of wheat growth zones in China were studied from seven GCMs outputs. The wheat growth regions may move northward and westward under the condition of a doubling CO climate. The wheat cultivation features and variety types may also assume significant changes. Climatic warming would have a positive influence in Northeast China, but high temperature stress may be produced in some regions of central and southern China. Higher mean air temperatures during wheat growth, particularly during the reproductive stages, may increase the need for earlier-maturing and more heat-tolerant cultivars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A pollen profile from Marais du Sagnas at the northern edge of the Etang de Berre lagoon, west of Marseille, is compared and correlated with a profile (C10) from the southern margin of the lagoon. This new profile extends the pollen record for the area to recent times. The palaeoecological data now available indicate distinct phases of marine influence in the lagoon from about 900 A.D. (non-calibrated) to the 16/17 century. These correspond to historically known drier periods during which it appears that reduced freshwater input facilitated increased influx of saline water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a 'no-regrets' framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between the moth, Cactoblastis cactorum, and the cactus, Opuntia stricta, is used as a model to examine the question of whether the CO sense of a herbivorous insect can detect the CO gradients associated with a plant's metabolic activity. Both the anatomical and the electrophysiological characteristics of CO-sensitive receptor neurons in C. cactorum indicate an adaptation to the detection of small fluctuations around the atmospheric background. Evidence is provided that further rises in background will impair the function of the sensory organ. In the habitat of the plant, during the diurnal window of the moth's activity, two types of CO gradients occur that are detectable by the moth's sensors. The first gradient, associated with soil respiration, is vertical and extends from the soil surface to an altitude of approximately 1 m. Its magnitude is well above the detectability limit of the sensors. The notion that this gradient provides, to a flying insect, a cue for the maintenance of a flight altitude favourable for host detection is supported by field observations of behaviour. The second gradient, associated with CO fixation by the plant, extends from the surfaces of photosynthetic organs (cladodes) over a boundary layer distance of approximately 5 mm. Again, its magnitude is well above the detectability limit. The notion that this gradient provides, to a walking insect, a cue to the physiological condition of the plant is supported by the observation that females of C. cactorum, prior to oviposition, actively probe the plant surface with their CO sensors. In a simulation of probing, pronounced responses of the sensors to the CO-fixing capacity of O. stricta are observed. We propose that by probing the boundary layer, females of C. cactorum can detect the healthiest, most active O. stricta cladodes, accounting for earlier observations that the most vigorous plants attract the greatest density of egg sticks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Opportunities exist in high Arctic polar semidesert communities for colonisation of unvegetated ground by long-lived clonal plants such as Dryas octopetala. This can be achieved by lateral spread of vegetative ramets, or by sexual reproduction and seedling recruitment. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine whether these two means of proliferation show differential sensitivity to contrasting components of the abiotic environment (temperature, soil nutrient and water availability) and (2) to evaluate the potential for D. octopetala to respond to climate change by an increase in cover and biomass in polar semi-desert communities. Factorial environmental manipulations of growing season temperature, soil nutrient and water status were conducted over 3 years at a polar semi-desert community in Svalbard, Norway (78°56.12′N, 11°50.4′E) and both clonal and sexual reproductive performance, together with instantaneous net photosynthesis (P), were recorded during the third season (1993). D. octopetala capitalised rapidly on an amelioration in the availability of inorganic nutrients (N, P and K) by an expansion in leaf area and biomass supported by increased P per unit leaf weight, and by apparent luxury uptake of nutrients (particularly P). Several facets of sexual reproductive development and seed viability were markedly improved by elevated temperatures or soil nutrient availability. Thus although D. octopetala is a long-lived clonal plant, with many traits characteristic of stress resistance syndrome, it showed considerable phenotypic plasticity in response to environmental manipulations. The results support the hypothesis that clonal growth confers survival potential during unfavourable years, together with the ability to capitalise on nutrient flushes and recycle nutrients internally. Continued investment in sexual reproduction ensures that seed setting is successful during favourable years, even if these occur infrequently. Cimate warming in the high Arctic could thus result in changes in the cover, biomass and the relative significance of clonal versus sexual proliferation of D. octopetala (and thus the genetic diversity of the population) but the long-term responses will probably be constrained by lack of available nutrients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate climate change presents a unique challenge for endangered species policy and an opportunity for policy makers to develop a more predictive and robust approach to preserving the nation's biological resources. Biological and ecological reactions to shifting climate conditions and the potential feedbacks and synergistic effects of such changes may threaten the well-being of many species, particularly of those already in jeopardy of extinction. The United States Endangered Species Act of 1973 will fail to keep pace with increasing numbers of species needing protection as long as it remains focused on protecting species individually. The act must not be abandoned, however; it holds tremendous promise for preserving biological diversity through a more proactive, anticipatory perspective. The current Endangered Species Act should be reinforced and improved by better integration of scientific expertise into habitat and community preservation listing decisions and recovery plan devlopment. Given the uncertainties surrounding long-term environmental consequences of human activities and resource use, a longer-term perspective must be integrated into all efforts to protect our biotic resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]