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An increase in the global mean sea level is predicted during the twenty-first century, as a consequence of global average rising temperature projections. In addition, changes in the strength of atmospheric cyclonic storms may alter the development of storm surges, exacerbating the risks to coastal communities. Based on the fact that the interest and range of papers on this topic are growing, this study aims to present the status of the global scientific production on studies that have correlated climate change and the impact of storm surges on the coastal zone leading to erosion and flooding (inundation) via a bibliometric analysis. We analyzed 429 papers published in journals between January 1991 and February 2021 from the Scopus database. Through the VOSviewer and Bibliometrix R package, we describe the most relevant countries, affiliations, journals, authors, and keywords. Our results demonstrate that there has been an exponential growth in the research topic and that authors from the USA and the United Kingdom are the most prolific. Among the 1454 authors found, ten researchers published at least five papers on the topic and obtained at least 453 citations in the period. The most represented journals were the Journal of Coastal Research, Climatic Change, and Natural Hazards. We also found and discuss the lack of standardization in the choice of keywords, of which climate change, storm surge, and sea-level rise are the most frequent. Finally, we have written a guide to facilitate the authors' bibliographic review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the globe, governments are developing policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions to address climate change. Monitoring the impact of governments' carbon reduction policies can significantly enhance our ability to combat climate change and meet emissions reduction targets. One promising area in this regard is the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in carbon reduction policy and strategy monitoring. While researchers have explored applications of AI on data from various sources, including sensors, satellites, and social media, to identify areas for carbon emissions reduction, AI applications in tracking the effect of governments' carbon reduction plans have been limited. This study presents an AI framework based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and statistical process control (SPC) for the monitoring of variations in carbon emissions, using UK annual CO2 emission (per capita) data, covering a period between 1750 and 2021. This paper used LSTM to develop a surrogate model for the UK's carbon emissions characteristics and behaviours. As observed in our experiments, LSTM has better predictive abilities than ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing and feedforward artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting CO2 emissions on a yearly prediction horizon. Using the deviation of the recorded emission data from the surrogate process, the variations and trends in these behaviours are then analysed using SPC, specifically Shewhart individual/moving range control charts. The result shows several assignable variations between the mid-1990s and 2021, which correlate with some notable UK government commitments to lower carbon emissions within this period. The framework presented in this paper can help identify periods of significant deviations from a country's normal CO2 emissions, which can potentially result from the government's carbon reduction policies or activities that can alter the amount of CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research into weather circulation changes over the UK for future climate has mainly focused on changes in the Summer and Winter seasons, with less analysis on seasonality and the transition seasons. Using the 30 Met Office weather patterns we examine the influence of climate change on seasonality through atmospheric circulation using a number of climate models. Changes in seasonality are important as they can have large impacts on many sectors including agriculture, energy and tourism. This paper finds a noticeable increase in Autumn over the UK in the frequency of drier summer-type regimes and a decrease in stormy winter types that emerge as early as the 2020s. The change in circulation signal once isolated from the overall signal is responsible for a 4–12% decrease in Autumn mean rainfall on average for England by the end of this century (where the values in the range are dependent on the emissions scenario). This change is projected over English regions that are already experiencing water stress, and with predictions of drier summers over the UK in future, this could further increase drought risk. The change in circulation in Autumn also moderates the large increase in the number of large-scale extreme daily rainfall events over the same regions predicted due to climate change. While this future circulation change is replicated across all the climate models used, large differences remain in the strength of the signal between models. The climate models used replicate the frequency of the 30 weather patterns well for all seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By considering the theoretical association between corporate transparency, information asymmetry and firm risk, this paper investigates the relationship between corporate carbon disclosure and firm risk in the UK context. Using a sample of FTSE350 firms with Carbon Disclosure Project based year-observations from 2007 to 2015, we find that enhanced voluntary carbon disclosure reduces a firm's total, systematic, and idiosyncratic risks. We also find that this negative association is driven mainly by carbon-intensive industries. Additional tests show that carbon disclosure was not a significant determinant of a firm's risk until after the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. Our findings are of interest to stakeholders, including business managers and investors as they have considerable interest in assessing firms' survival and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines expressed hopelessness among environmental activists in Extinction Rebellion. While activists claim that they have lost all hope for a future without global warming and species extinction, through despair emerges a new hope for saving what can still be saved—a hope for what is left. This radical hope, emerging from despair, may make Extinction Rebellion even more effective. Drawing from personal interviews with 25 Extinction Rebellion activists in the United Kingdom and the published work of other Extinction Rebellion activists, this paper identifies signs of radical hope. While activists have cast off false hope and passive hope, a new hope for what is still possible remains. This hope is based on virtue ethics: doing what is right in the moment, rather than being attached to a desired outcome. This drives forward activism despite the results. Through their principle of regenerative culture, Extinction Rebellion activists learn to support each other and be prepared for a more turbulent and challenging future. Through a regenerative culture they can salvage and repair what is left and sustain radical hope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For those involved in planning for regional and local scale changes in future climate, there is a requirement for climate information to be available in a context more usually associated with meteorological timescales. Here we combine a tool used in numerical weather prediction, the 30 weather patterns produced by the Met Office, which are already applied operationally to numerical weather prediction models, to assess changes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Global ensemble. Through assessing projected changes in the frequency of the weather patterns at the end of the 21st Century, we determine that future changes in large-scale circulation tend towards an increase in winter of weather patterns associated with cyclonic and westerly wind conditions at the expense of more anticyclonic, settled/blocked weather patterns. In summer, the results indicate a shift towards an increase in dry settled weather types with a corresponding reduction in the wet and windy weather types. Climatologically this suggests a shift towards warmer, wetter winters and warmer, drier summers; which is consistent with the headline findings from the UK Climate Projections 2018. This paper represents the first evaluation of weather patterns analysis within UKCP Global. It provides a detailed assessment of the changes in these weather patterns through the 21st Century and how uncertainty in emissions, structural and perturbed parameters affects these results. We show that the use of these weather patterns in tandem with the UKCP projections is useful for future work investigating changes in a range of weather-related climate features such as extreme precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates both the linear and nonlinear effects of climate risk shocks on wealth inequality in the UK using the local projections (LPs) method, based on high-frequency, i.e., monthly data. The linear results show that climate risk shocks lead to an increase in wealth inequality in the longer term. The nonlinear results present some evidence of heterogeneous responses of wealth inequality to climate risk variable shocks between high- and low-climate risk regimes. The findings highlight the disproportionate increased burden of climate change on households that are already experiencing poverty, particularly households in high-climate risk areas. As such, measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change need to be tailored so as not to overburden the poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support climate adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 as an example of such information. Their probabilistic, global, and regional land projections exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of constructing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate along six quality dimensions: transparency; theory; independence, number, and comprehensiveness of evidence; and historical empirical adequacy. The assessment produced two major insights. First, a major issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency, which is particularly problematic since the information is directed towards non-expert users who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections because the former lack both transparency and a theory underpinning the method used to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. The assessment also shows how different dimensions are satisfied depending on the evidence used, the methodology chosen to analyze the evidence, and the type of statements that are constructed in the different strands of UKCP18. This research highlights the importance of knowledge quality assessment of regional climate information that intends to support climate change adaptation decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we show that over the next few decades, the natural variability of mid-latitude storm systems is likely to be a more important driver of coastal extreme sea levels than either mean sea level rise or climatically induced changes to storminess. Due to their episodic nature, the variability of local sea level response, and our short observational record, understanding the natural variability of storm surges is at least as important as understanding projected long-term mean sea level changes due to global warming. Using the December 2013 North Atlantic Storm Xaver as a baseline, we used a meteorological forecast modification tool to create "grey swan" events, whilst maintaining key physical properties of the storm system. Here we define "grey swan" to mean an event which is expected on the grounds of natural variability but is not within the observational record. For each of these synthesised storm events, we simulated storm tides and waves in the North Sea using hydrodynamic models that are routinely used in operational forecasting systems. The grey swan storms produced storm surges that were consistently higher than those experienced during the December 2013 event at all analysed tide gauge locations along the UK east coast. The additional storm surge elevations obtained in our simulations are comparable to high-end projected mean sea level rises for the year 2100 for the European coastline. Our results indicate strongly that mid-latitude storms, capable of generating more extreme storm surges and waves than ever observed, are likely due to natural variability. We confirmed previous observations that more extreme storm surges in semi-enclosed basins can be caused by slowing down the speed of movement of the storm, and we provide a novel explanation in terms of slower storm propagation allowing the dynamical response to approach equilibrium. We did not find any significant changes to maximum wave heights at the coast, with changes largely confined to deeper water. Many other regions of the world experience storm surges driven by mid-latitude weather systems. Our approach could therefore be adopted more widely to identify physically plausible, low probability, potentially catastrophic coastal flood events and to assist with major incident planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global literature on drought and health highlights a variety of health effects for people in developing countries where certain prevailing social, economic and environmental conditions increase their vulnerability especially with climate change. Despite increased focus on climate change, relatively less is known about the health-drought impacts in the developed country context. In the UK, where climate change–related risk of water shortages has been identified as a key area for action, there is need for better understanding of drought-health linkages. This paper assesses people's narratives of drought on health and well-being in the UK using a source-receptor-impact framing. Stakeholder narratives indicate that drought can present perceived health and well-being effects through reduced water quantity, water quality, compromised hygiene and sanitation, food security, and air quality. Heatwave associated with drought was also identified as a source of health effects through heat and wildfire, and drought-related vectors. Drought was viewed as potentially attributing both negative and positive effects for physical and mental health, with emphasis on mental health. Health impacts were often complex and cross-sectoral in nature indicating the need for a management approach across several sectors that targets drought and health in risk assessment and adaptation planning processes. Two recurring themes in the UK narratives were the health consequences of drought for 'at-risk' groups and the need to target them, and that drought in a changing climate presented potential health implications for at-risk groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many coastal sand dune systems in the UK and other parts of the world have experienced a decline in bare sand extent and dune mobility over the past 70 years, accompanied by increased coverage of coarse grass, scrub and woodland vegetation. This has raised concerns amongst nature conservationists about the survival of dune specialist species. Opinions are divided, however, regarding what management interventions should be made to counteract these trends. This paper reviews the factors which have contributed to progressive dune system stabilization at Sandscale Haws, located on the Irish Sea coast in Northwest England, considers the implications for the site of UKCP18 future climate change projections, and discusses the options and plans for future adaptive management. Analaysis of aerial photographs indicated a large reduction in bare sand area between 1946 and 1988 (from >34% to 9% of the dune system), since when there has been a further decline to 1.7%. Consideration of the evidence suggests that a trend towards a warmer, slightly wetter and less windy climate has been the main driver of stabilization, although atmospheric nitrogen deposition, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, reduced grazing intensity, reduced human disturbance from the mid-1980s onwards and a tendency for shoreline progradation on the west-facing coast have played contributing roles. Some species characteristic of open habitats can still be found in good numbers in parts of the dune system, but without increased management it is likely they will decline further and some may become locally extinct. Since the site is of national and international importance for a number of nationally scarce plant and animal species it is considered that there is both a legal and an ethical duty to attempt to maintain suitable habitat for their survival. As a National Nature Reserve Sandscale Haws provides a suitable 'natural laboratory' within which to research the effectiveness of different intervention methods. A number of small-scale dune rejuvenation methods have been trialled since 2015, and options for larger scale interventions, including turf stripping and possible dune notching, are currently being evaluated as part of the nation-wide Dynamic Dunescapes project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International assessments of evidence on climate change (e.g. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) or national climate change risk assessments (e.g. UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, CCRA) do not offer a sufficiently granular perspective on climate impacts to adequately inform governance of resilience to climate risks at the local level. Using an analysis of UK decision-makers managing and responding to heatwaves and flood risks, this paper argues how more robust local evidence is needed to inform decision-making regarding adaptation options for enhancing local resilience. We identify evidence gaps and issues relating to local climate change impacts, including sources and quality of evidence used, adequacy and accessibility of evidence available, ill-communicated evidence and conflicting or misused evidence. A lack of appreciation regarding how scientific evidence and personal judgement can mutually enhance the quality of decision-making underpins all of these gaps. Additionally, we find that the majority of evidence currently used is reductively based upon socio-economic and physical characteristics of climate risks. We argue that a step change is needed in local climate resilience that moves beyond current physical and socio-economic risk characterisation to a more inclusive co-constitution of social and politically defined climate risks at the local scale that are better aligned with the local impacts felt and needs of stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Images are ubiquitous in everyday life. They are a key part of the communication process, shaping peoples' attitudes and policy preferences on climate change. Images which have come to dominate visual portrayals of climate change (and conversely, those that are marginalised or excluded) influence how we interact with climate change in our everyday lives. This paper presents the first in-depth, cross-cultural and longitudinal study of climate change visual discourse. It examines over a thousand images associated with articles about climate change in UK and US newspapers between 2001 and 2009, a pivotal decade for climate change engagement. Content, frame and iconographic analyses reveal a remarkably consistent visual discourse in the UK and US newspapers. The longitudinal analysis shows how the visual representation of climate changed mid-decade. Before 2005, a distancing frame was common. Imagery of polar landscapes acted as a visual synecdoche for distant climate risk. After 2005, there was a rapid increase in visual coverage, an increase in use of the contested visual frame, alongside an increase in climate cartoons, protest imagery and visual synecdoches. These synecdoches began to be subverted and parodied, particularly in the right-leaning press. These results illustrate the rise of climate change scepticism during the mid-2000s. This study has implications for public engagement with climate change. It shows that the contested and distancing visual frames are deeply and historically embedded in the meaning-making of climate change. Additionally, it showcases the importance of visual synecdoches, used by newspapers in particular circumstances to engage particular audiences. Knowing and understanding visual use is imperative to enable an evidence-based approach to climate engagement endeavours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers eustatic sea level rise to be a major impact driven by climate change. Relative sea level change, whether positive or negative, will affect industries, communities and ecology along the world's coastlines and estuaries. Estimates of global eustatic sea level rise between 1961 and 2003 are 1.8 ± 0.5 mm a, reflecting results from validated global tide gauge records. Over the last two decades, several studies have used automatic tide gauge records with at least 80 years of data to generate global prediction models. The IPCC recognises that global change is not uniform, therefore local policy for flood management and coastal protection should rely on local change models that incorporate glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and apply accurate data correction techniques. Some of the longest tidal records are held within the Northern Hemisphere, e.g. Cascais, Amsterdam, Aberdeen, Sheerness and Newlyn. The UK provides several important case studies highlighting changes in relative sea level between the north and the south, primarily due to variations in GIA rates of land uplift and subsidence. Tide gauge records are held by a variety of governmental, non-governmental and private organisations. However, each source may typically compile data in different ways, relying on diverse equipment and recording techniques, often with variations in frequency, length, quality and corrections applied. Even within a single organisation there may be differences in dataset quality. This paper examines some of the key sources of error when working with historical tidal datasets in local geographic areas and aims to identify the limitations of locally derived data thereby assisting in the determination of relative sea level trends that are of widespread value to infrastructure and policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bibliometric analysis is a quantitative evaluation method for scientific research aiming at measuring knowledge expressed as scientific publications in a given field. This paper proposes to analyze the worldwide scientific production on social vulnerability of coastal populations through six bibliometric indicators: typology, historical evolution, geographic distribution, main sources, relevant authors and publications and recurring keywords. The research theme was chosen given the continuous increase of studies related to climatic changes and their consequences to populations in coastal zones. In total, 191 indexed documents covering the period from 1991 to 2019 were selected from the Scopus database, after the examination of more than 900 entries, and analyzed through VOSViewer software and the Bibliometrix R package. The results obtained confirmed the exponential growth of scientific production on this subject. Most frequently impacts considered were coastal flooding and erosion triggered by extreme events and the majority of studies have been presented as academic articles published in scientific journals. Moreover, most documents identified were site-specific, based on secondary data and associated with authors from the USA and the UK, with an emerging production related to authors from developing economies in recent years. Among the 658 authors found, only nine have published three or more articles on the theme, with citations highly concentrated in only four publications. The analysis also revealed the evolution of preferred keywords over time and the lack of consensus in the use of terminology. Studies about coastal social vulnerability were initially mostly focused on the evaluation of risks and exposure to hazards, evolving over time such that the focus shifted to adaptation measures seeking to minimize impacts from climate change to coastal zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a study of assessing regional water resources in a highly regulated river basin, the Dee river basin in the UK. The aims of this study include: 1) to address the issue of hydrological simulations for regulated river catchments; 2) to develop a new method revealing the trends of water resources for different scenarios (e.g. dry and wet) and 3) to facilitate water resources assessment under both climate change impacts and regulations. We use the SWAT model to model the hydrological process of the river basin with carefully designed configurations to isolate the impact from the water use regulations and practice. The spatially-distributed model simulations are then analysed with the quantile regression method to reveal the spatial and temporal patterns of regional water resources. The results show that this approach excels in presenting distributed, spatially focused trend information for extremely dry and wet scenarios, which can well address the needs of practitioners and decision-makers in dealing with long-term planning and climate change impact. The representation of the management practice in the modelling process helps identify the impact from both climate change and necessary regulatory practices, and as such lays a foundation for further study on how various management practices can mitigate the impact from other sources such as those from climate change. The novelty of the study lies in three aspects: 1) it devises a new way of isolating and representing management practice in the hydrological modelling process for regulated river basins; 2) it integrates the QR technique to study spatial-temporal trends of catchment water yield in a distributed fashion, for wet and dry scenarios instead of the mean; 3) the combination of the methods are able to reveal the impacts from various sources as well as their interactions with catchment water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK Government's first National Adaptation Programme seeks to create a 'climate-ready society' capable of making well-informed and far-sighted decisions to address risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate, where individual households are expected to adapt when it is in their interest to do so. How, and to what extent, households are able to do this remains unclear. Like other developed countries, research on UK adaptation has focused predominately on public and private organisations. To fill that gap, a systematic literature review was conducted to understand what actions UK households have taken in response to, or in anticipation of, a changing climate; what drives or impedes these actions; and whether households will act autonomously. We found that UK households struggle to build long-term adaptive capacity and are reliant upon traditional reactive coping responses. Of concern is that these coping responses are less effective for some climate risks (e.g. flooding); cost more over the long-term; and fail to create household capacity to adapt to other stresses. While low-cost, low-skill coping responses were already being implemented, the adoption of more permanent physical measures, behavioural changes, and acceptance of new responsibilities are unlikely to happen autonomously without further financial or government support. If public policy on household adaptation to climate change is to be better informed than more high-quality empirical research is urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilience of a water resource system in terms of water supply meeting future demand under climate change and other uncertainties is a prominent issue worldwide. This paper presents an alternative methodology to the conventional engineering practice in the UK for identifying long-term adaptation planning strategies in the context of resilience. More specifically, a resilience-based multi-objective optimization method is proposed that identifies Pareto optimal future adaptation strategies by maximizing a water supply system’s resilience (calculated as the maximum recorded duration of a water deficit period over a given planning horizon) and minimizing total associated costs, subject to meeting target system robustness to uncertain projections (scenarios) of future supply and demand. The method is applied to a real-world case study for Bristol Water’s water resource zone and the results are compared with those derived using a more conventional engineering practice in the UK, utilizing a least-cost optimization analysis constrained to a target reliability level. The results obtained reveal that the strategy solution derived using the current practice methodology produce a less resilient system than the similar costing solutions identified using the proposed resilience driven methodology. At the same time, resilience driven strategies are only slightly less reliable suggesting that trade-off exists between the two. Further examination of intervention strategies selected shows that the conventional methodology encourages implementation of more lower cost intervention options early in the planning horizon (to achieve higher system reliability) whereas the resilience-based methodology encourages more uniform intervention options sequenced over the planning horizon (to achieve higher system resilience). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate change projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to understand why climate information is produced differently from country to country. To do this, we critically examined and compared the social and scientific values that shaped the production of three national climate scenarios in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK. A comparative analysis of documentary materials and expert interviews linked to the climate scenarios was performed. Our findings reveal a new typology of use-inspired research in climate science for decision-making: (i) innovators, where the advancement of science is the main objective; (ii) consolidators, where knowledge exchanges and networks are prioritised; and (iii) collaborators, where the needs of users are put first and foremost. These different values over what constitutes 'good' science for decision-making are mirrored in the way users were involved in the production process: (i) elicitation, where scientists have privileged decision-making power; (ii) representation, where multiple organisations mediate on behalf of individual users; and (iii) participation, where a multitude of users interact with scientists in an equal partnership. These differences help explain why climate knowledge gains its credibility and legitimacy differently even when the information itself might not be judged as salient and usable. If the push to deliberately co-produce climate knowledge is not sensitive to the national civic epistemology at play in each country, scientist-user interactions may fail to deliver more 'usable' climate information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) assumes coherence between cognate aspects of water governance at the river basin scale, for example water quality, energy production and agriculture objectives. But critics argue that IWRM is often less 'integrated' in practice, raising concerns over inter-sectoral coherence between implementing institutions. One increasingly significant aspect of IWRM is adaptation to climate change-related risks, including threats from flooding, which are particularly salient in England. Although multiple institutional mechanisms exist for flood risk management (FRM), their coherence remains a critical question for national adaptation. This paper therefore (1) maps the multi-level institutional frameworks determining both IWRM and FRM in England; (2) examines their interaction via various inter-institutional coordinating mechanisms; and (3) assesses the degree of coherence. The analysis suggests that cognate EU strategic objectives for flood risk assessment demonstrate relatively high vertical and horizontal coherence with river basin planning. However, there is less coherence with flood risk requirements for land-use planning and national flood protection objectives. Overall, this complex governance arrangement actually demonstrates de-coherence over time due to ongoing institutional fragmentation. Recommendations for increasing IWRM coherence in England or re-coherence based on greater spatial planning and coordination of water-use and land-use strategies are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the threat of the disruptions of climate change, there is growing interest in clean coal technology in the UK. This paper reviews the technologies underpinning the capture, transportation and storage of CO2. In the case of the UK, the storage of CO2 is planned in the sub seabed of the North Sea Continental Shelf. This being so, the paper goes on to analyse the rapid changes made at International, EU and UK level to shape a legal framework, the contours of which, if not the precise topography, is now visibly recognisable. It explores the linkages between regimes on climate change and marine protection and it concludes that the viability of the technology may ultimately be dependent on one element of that regulatory structure, namely the EU Emissions Trading Scheme since, ultimately, the price of carbon will determine levels of investment in the technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first part of this paper demonstrated the existence of bias in GCM-derived precipitation series, downscaled using either a statistical technique (here the Statistical Downscaling Model) or dynamical method (here high resolution Regional Climate Model HadRM3) propagating to river flow estimated by a lumped hydrological model. This paper uses the same models and methods for a future time horizon (2080s) and analyses how significant these projected changes are compared to baseline natural variability in four British catchments. The UKCIP02 scenarios, which are widely used in the UK for climate change impact, are also considered. Results show that GCMs are the largest source of uncertainty in future flows. Uncertainties from downscaling techniques and emission scenarios are of similar magnitude, and generally smaller than GCM uncertainty. For catchments where hydrological modelling uncertainty is smaller than GCM variability for baseline flow, this uncertainty can be ignored for future projections, but might be significant otherwise. Predicted changes are not always significant compared to baseline variability, less than 50% of projections suggesting a significant change in monthly flow. Insignificant changes could occur due to climate variability alone and thus cannot be attributed to climate change, but are often ignored in climate change studies and could lead to misleading conclusions. Existing systematic bias in reproducing current climate does impact future projections and must, therefore, be considered when interpreting results. Changes in river flow variability, important for water management planning, can be easily assessed from simple resampling techniques applied to both baseline and future time horizons. Assessing future climate and its potential implication for river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. This two-part paper demonstrates that uncertainty due to hydrological and climate modelling must and can be accounted for to provide sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing future climate and its potential implications on river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. Sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers also needs to incorporate information on the uncertainty in the results. Moreover, existing bias in the reproduction of the ‘current’ (or baseline) river flow regime is likely to transfer to the simulations of flow in future time horizons, and it is thus critical to undertake baseline flow assessment while undertaking future impacts studies. This paper investigates the three main sources of uncertainty surrounding climate change impact studies on river flows: uncertainty in GCMs, in downscaling techniques and in hydrological modelling. The study looked at four British catchments’ flow series simulated by a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model with observed and GCM-derived rainfall series representative of the baseline time horizon (1961–1990). A block-resample technique was used to assess climate variability, either from observed records (natural variability) or reproduced by GCMs. Variations in mean monthly flows due to hydrological model uncertainty from different model structures or model parameters were also evaluated. Three GCMs (HadCM3, CCGCM2, and CSIRO-mk2) and two downscaling techniques (SDSM and HadRM3) were considered. Results showed that for all four catchments, GCM uncertainty is generally larger than downscaling uncertainty, and both are consistently greater than uncertainty from hydrological modelling or natural variability. No GCM or downscaling technique was found to be significantly better or to have a systematic bias smaller than the others. This highlights the need to consider more than one GCM and downscaling technique in impact studies, and to assess the bias they introduce when modelling river flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last few years have witnessed important advances in our understanding of time preference and social discounting. In particular, several rationales for the use of time-varying social discount rates have emerged. These rationales range from the ad hoc to the formal, with some founded solely in economic theory while others reflect principles of intergenerational equity. While these advances are to be applauded, the practitioner is left with a confusing array of rationales and the sense that almost any discount rate can be justified. This paper draws together these different strands and provides a critical review of past and present contributions to this literature. In addition to this we highlight some of the problems with employing DDRs in the decision-making process, the most pressing of which may be time inconsistency. We clarify their practical implications, and potential pitfalls, of the more credible rationales and argue that some approaches popular in environmental economics literature are ill-conceived. Finally, we illustrate the impact of different approaches by examining global warming and nuclear power investment. This includes an application and extension of Newell and Pizer [‘Discounting the benefits of climate change mitigation : how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?’ Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 46 (2003) 52] to UK interest rate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last several years, the United Kingdom has seen a wave of environmental movements demanding action on the climate crisis. While aligned in their goals, the groups undertaking this activism often diverge on the question of tactics. One such divergence occurred in January 2023, when Extinction Rebellion (XR) declared "We Quit", ending actions that were disruptive to the general public. Peer groups Just Stop Oil and Animal Rising continued disruptive actions, viewing them as the best way to gain media coverage for their causes. Despite the urgency of addressing climate change and the growing prominence of direct action in British life, little research has examined how the news media covers and reacts to different climate actions. News media plays a vital role in influencing the public's perception of the climate crisis and "appropriate" responses. We assembled a unique dataset of British news coverage of climate actions over a 7 month period, covering both before and after XR's "We Quit" statement. Our results reveal that conservative publications cover climate actions more unfavorably and more inaccurately than other publications. Legal actions are generally covered more favorably than illegal ones in both conservative and non-conservative outlets and receive more coverage. Actions that target industry attract more coverage than those that target other actors, while actions that target the public are covered more favorably than those that do not. These results contribute to the scholarly debates surrounding the interaction between social movements and news media, especially on how different strategies potentially influence the extent and affective nature of coverage. They have implications for strategies adopted by climate advocates, depending on whether their goal is merely to draw attention to an issue or if it is to generate positive coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal risk management has received increasing attention from policy-makers and practitioners over the last 20 years. The introduction by the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), of a new approach to coastal risk management in England, led to the Environment Agency being given overall responsibility for the management of coastal risks in 2007. The establishment of a framework for coastal management, together with appropriate policy guidance, is particularly important on account of the increasing influence that predicted climate change may have on coastal economies, infrastructure, communities and conservation interests over the next century. Within this framework, the issue of coastal land instability is now being considered alongside the hazards of coastal erosion and flooding. In developing coastal management policies, and in deciding on whether coastal change should be adapted to rather than prevented, the availability of funding for coastal risk management projects and schemes is often an overriding consideration. This is encouraging new and innovative approaches for the avoidance of risks, through the implementation of adaptation strategies and the publication of improved advice and guidance. This paper describes recent policy guidance for coastal cliffs introduced in England and Wales, as well as the testing of new approaches in the field, and provides examples of updated tools to support engagement with stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries are exploring alternative strategies to counter rising flood risk as there is concern at the extra burden that such increasing risk will bring. The aim of this paper is to explore the nature of these burdens and outline responses in the United Kingdom (UK) where both the government and the private flood insurers have new policies and proposals. Our method is to collate the extensive existing authoritative data and information-from government and the insurance industry-about the risks that are being experienced and the related policy responses. The results show that these seek to concentrate somewhat more the financial burden of, respectively, flood risk management costs and insurance provisions on to those who are at risk and away from the general taxpayer and those who pay insurance premiums. Other countries may well learn from these developments. The pre-existing cross-subsidies are being reduced, and in this way, it is hoped that extra resources for risk management investment will be forthcoming (from local contributions from at-risk communities) and flood insurance will remain affordable, available and commercially viable. A key conclusion here is that it appears that any increase in flood frequency and severity in the UK appears likely to affect the financially deprived communities to a greater extent than others, not least because they are less likely to insure. Government arrangements to prioritise their contribution to risk reduction towards these financially deprived communities are signs that this regressive effect of floods is real and serious and those arrangements are to be welcomed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resistance is a concept understudied in the context of health and healthcare. This is in part because visible forms of social protest are sometimes understood as incongruent with professional identity, leading healthcare workers to separate their visible actions from their working life. Resistance takes many forms, however, and focusing exclusively on the visible means more subtle forms of everyday resistance are likely to be missed. The overarching aim of this study was to explore how resistance was enacted within the workplace amongst a sample of twelve healthcare workers, based in the United Kingdom; exploring the forms that such action took and how this intersected with health and healthcare. In depth-interviews were conducted and results were analysed utilizing Lilja's framework (2022). Our findings suggest that resistance took a number of forms, from more direct confrontational acts, to those which sought to avoid power or which sought to create alternative or prefigurative practices or norms. These findings speak to the complexities, ambiguities, and contradictions of resistance, as carried out by healthcare workers in the workplace. While many acts had clear political motives, with issues like climate change in mind for example, participants also described how the act of providing care itself could be an act of resistance. While saying something about our participants, this also said something about the healthcare systems in which they worked. These findings also raise a range of normative issues. Perhaps needless to say, there appears to be substantial scope to expand and interrogate our findings and apply the idea of resistance to health and healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although in recent years great emphasis has been placed on global agreements and national commitments on climate change, ultimately action on mitigation and adaptation must take place at the local level. Many local authorities have to face questions of whether they should develop policies on climate change, and if so, on what evidence should policies be designed and delivered. This paper describes how academic research on the economics of low carbon cities (the 'mini-Stern review') helped create such an evidence base for the Leeds City Region and its constituent local authorities. We describe how the response to the evidence and the pathways to impact were different in the individual local authorities and what this means for our understanding of evidence in local policy making. In terms of Weiss' (Social sciences and modern states: national experiences and theoretical crossroads. Advances in political science, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ) classification, the study was mainly useful as an argument and idea rather than being used instrumentally. We find that the policy and political context in each authority determines to a large extent whether such an academic study is useable as evidence. The contents and timing of the study need to align with existing policy and/or political agendas: is climate change on the agenda at all, with what priority and how is it framed. We find confirmation of a relationship between the policy problem type and the role of evidence as argument, idea or data. The mini-Stern study itself was just one contribution to wide-ranging processes of informing, convincing, pressurising, etc., not just within the different councils but also within the wider communities. Other contextual factors include composition, agenda and activities of local civil society and the local business community. Finally, it depends on the expertise of policy officers in the councils what use is made of evidence. Making policy takes (much) time, translation and negotiation across levels and sectors. Policy work describes how policy officers bring their diverse forms of knowledge to bear on policy questions; how this work is done is something that is learned from practice rather than from the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper estimates the potential contribution of Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) and short rotation coppice (SRC; in Great Britain often willow and poplar species, e.g. Salix. viminalis L. x S. viminalis var Joruun) to the heat and electricity needs in Great Britain to 2050 under climate change, using a model system which is composed of a partial equilibrium model and two process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models. If the whole available area of land suitable for Miscanthus and SRC of 8 Mha is considered, results show that the contribution of Miscanthus and SRC to the heat and electricity supply would be significant. Under the projected climate and an imposed energy policy to 2050, the potential contribution would range from 139, 291 GWh to 230, 605 GWh for heat and from 112, 481 GWh to 127, 868 GWh for electricity by 2050. This would provide over 60 % of total heat and electricity needs in Great Britain. Using realistic implementation scenarios on just 0.4 Mha of land, Miscanthus and SRC could still contribute more than 5 % of heat and electricity needs in Great Britain. We conclude that Miscanthus and SRC have the potential to form part of a diverse renewable energy portfolio for Great Britain. In addition to climate and energy policy, the contribution of Miscanthus and SRC to heat and electricity will be impacted by the efficiency of combined heat and power (CHP) and alternative energy crops, and the area of land eventually used for dedicated bioenergy crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of change in tree growth can be quantified. We assessed the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities calculated from the weather generator data and tree species vulnerabilities using Ecological Site Classification model across Britain. We evaluated the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species ( Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur), which cover around 59 % (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across the lowlands and uplands. We show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using B1, A1B, and A1FI IPCC emissions scenarios, but varied spatially. We found a maximum reduction of 94 % but also a maximum increase of 56 % in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the state-managed forests for all three species in the 2080s is estimated to decrease due to drought by 42 % in the lowlands and by 32 % in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the state-managed forests in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an estimate of the contribution of the ecosystem to the provisioning services generated by agriculture. This is achieved by valuing the changes in productivity generated by a marginal alteration in ecosystem inputs. As an example, we consider the variation in rainfall and temperature projected by the recent UK Climate Impacts Programme. The analysis implements a spatially explicit, econometric model of agricultural land use based on the methodology recently developed by Fezzi and Bateman (Am J Agric Econ 93:1168-1188, ). Land use area and livestock stocking rates are then employed to calculate farm gross margin estimates of the value of changes in provisioning ecosystem services. Findings suggest that the variation in ecosystem inputs induced by climate change will have substantial influence on agricultural productivity. Interestingly, within the UK context climate change generates mainly positive effects, although losses are forecasted for those southern areas most vulnerable to heat-stress and drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Climate Change Act 2008 requires a series of assessments of the risks of climate for the UK, under both current conditions and over the long term, to 2100. This paper describes the research completed on the impacts of climate change on the UK water sector, involving stakeholder engagement and a mix of literature review, expert elicitation and broad-scale quantitative analysis to develop ten climate change risk metrics. These include measures of the demand for water, impacts on supply, water quality and asset performance using future scenarios based on the UK Climate Projections 2009 and future population projections from the Office for National Statistics. The analysis has resulted in a number of key findings that can help to inform policy in different parts of the UK. Overall the assessment showed that there is likely to be increased pressure on water resources in the UK. These pressures need to be considered in long term plans so that the needs of different users are met without impacting on the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socio-economic change, severe droughts, and environmental concerns focus attention on sustainability of water supplies and the ability of water utilities to meet levels of service. Traditionally, water management has been supply-side dominated and long-term demand forecasting has received relatively little attention. However, it is increasingly recognised that water demand management could be a 'low regret' adaptation measure (both financially and environmentally) given large uncertainties about future non-climate and climate pressures. This paper begins with a brief history of household water demand management in the UK. We then review approaches to water demand estimation and forecasting over the short- (daily to season) and long-term (years to decade) and note the paucity of studies on weather and climate. We discuss peak household water use behaviours identified from metering trials, micro-component diary-based studies, and statistical techniques for long-term demand forecasting. We refer to the Anglian Water Services (AWS) 'Golden 100' data to illustrate the significant practical and conceptual issues faced when mining household water use data for weather signals, especially when the data are noisy and originally intended for other applications. Further research is needed into the relationships between climate variables and household micro-component water use, especially for peak demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change with adverse impacts on the environment, economy, and society requires marketing to change current attitudes and behaviors towards sustainable production and consumption, and thus climate change is interrelated to marketing. However, no body of literature has comprehensively investigated the connections and relationships between climate change and marketing. This study examined such connections and relationships from a bibliometric approach using Web of Science and Scopus databases from 1992 to 2022. The search strategy utilized topic and title/abstract/keyword search. The search query retrieved 1723 documents. VOSviewer and Biblioshiny were utilized to analyze data on authors, keywords, institutions, countries, sources, citations, and co-citations. The findings showed an upward trend in the annual number of publications with the top three most productive countries being the USA, the UK, and Australia and the most productive institutions in the USA, New Zealand, and the UK. The top three author keywords were climate change, sustainability, and marketing. The Sustainability journal ranked first in terms of productivity while Energy Policy in terms of citations. International collaborations were mostly between developed countries also known as Global North Countries, and collaborations between these countries and developing and developed countries should be encouraged. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of documents increased, and research themes altered. Research on energy, innovation, insect farming, and carbon management is a top priority. The results proved that most studies were conducted outside the field of marketing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partly in response to concerns about anthropogenic climate change, renewable energy production is growing rapidly in the United Kingdom (UK). The wind power industry takes advantage of the country having some of the highest mean wind speeds in Europe. Future climate change, however, has the potential to alter the characteristics of the UK wind climate. Small changes in mean wind speed could produce much greater changes in wind energy output as the power generated is related to the cube of wind speed. This paper aims to use a simple method to provide insight into projected future UK wind climate and how this might differ from current patterns. A discussion of the scale of the projected impacts on the wind energy industry follows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:Food is responsible for around one-fifth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from products consumed in the UK, the largest contributor of which is meat and dairy. The Committee on Climate Change have modelled the impact on GHG emissions of three dietary scenarios for food consumption in the UK. This paper models the impact of the three scenarios on mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer.SUBJECTS/METHODS:A previously published model (DIETRON) was used. The three scenarios were parameterised by fruit and vegetables, fibre, total fat, saturated fat, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, cholesterol and salt using the 2008 Family Food Survey. A Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% credible intervals.RESULTS:Scenario 1 (50% reduction in meat and dairy replaced by fruit, vegetables and cereals: 19% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 36 910 (30 192 to 43 592) deaths delayed or averted per year. Scenario 2 (75% reduction in cow and sheep meat replaced by pigs and poultry: 9% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 1999 (1739 to 2389) deaths delayed or averted. Scenario 3 (50% reduction in pigs and poultry replaced with fruit, vegetables and cereals: 3% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 9297 (7288 to 11 301) deaths delayed or averted.CONCLUSION:Modelled results suggest that public health and climate change dietary goals are in broad alignment with the largest results in both domains occurring when consumption of all meat and dairy products are reduced. Further work in real-life settings is needed to confirm these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loch Leven is a large, shallow lake in lowland Scotland, UK. Scientific research began here almost 200 years ago. Early research characterised the biodiversity and physical characteristics of the loch, providing an important historical background for future research. In the mid-1960s, this ad hoc approach was superseded by a more structured research programme under the umbrella of the International Biological Programme. This was the beginning of the Loch Leven long-term monitoring programme. Today, the results of these studies form one of the longest and most comprehensive limnological datasets for shallow freshwater lakes in the world, comprising more than 500 physical, chemical and biological variables collected at two-weekly intervals. To celebrate the 40th anniversary of the start of the long term monitoring programme, and to highlight the scientific investigations still being conducted at Loch Leven, the NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) organised a symposium entitled "Loch Leven: 40 years of scientific research" in Kinross, Scotland, UK, on 11 December 2008. This examined the role of long-term monitoring in developing our understanding of the links between pollution, climate change and ecological responses in shallow lakes. This article introduces a series of papers summarising the scientific results presented at this meeting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Butterfly Conservation, in partnership with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and Dublin Naturalists' Field Club, has been coordinating the collation of detailed geographical records of butterfly sightings across Britain and Ireland, mainly made by volunteers, for a continuous period of 15 years since 1995. This has generated a dataset of over 7.5 million records, supplemented by collated historical records. Results at the end of the first five-year period (1995-9) and at the end of the second five-year period (2000-4) indicated significant range declines in many species over a 30-year period (since baseline distributions recorded in the 1970s); for other species, there has been a significant extension of range, principally towards more northerly latitudes. This paper shows the results of a preliminary analysis for the end of the third five-year period (2005-9), to assess progress towards the EU target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010. The findings indicate that populations are continuing to be lost at a similar rate to previous periods, contrary to the 2010 target. In contrast, major northward extensions of range are reported for some mobile generalist species. Conservation successes are also reported for a few species whose declines have been halted and in some cases, reversed. Changes in range and species diversity remain consistent with the primary hypotheses for the causes of change: decreases caused by destruction, deterioration and fragmentation of biotopes and range increases in response to climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recognition of Mesolithic impacts in mid Holocene pollen diagrams of the British Isles has led to the development of models describing sophisticated woodland management, particularly through the use of fire, by Mesolithic populations. However, the significance of human agency in creating mid Holocene woodland disturbances is unclear, with natural and human-induced clearings arguably indistinguishable in the pollen record. Analysis of non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) should aid the identification of events and processes occurring within these woodland disturbances and provide more precise palaeoecological data. In this paper we present pollen, charcoal and NPP analyses from a potentially critical location in the Mesolithic impacts debate. NPP types aid significantly in the reconstructions, suggesting periods of dead wood, grazing, local burning and wetter ground conditions. The results indicate that between 7700 and 6800 cal b.p., a predominantly wooded environment periodically gave way to phases of more open woodland, with inconsistent evidence for animal grazing. From 6800 cal b.p., a phase of open woodland associated with high charcoal concentrations and indicators of grazing was observed. This probably represents the deliberate firing of vegetation to improve grazing and browse resources, although it remains unclear whether fire was responsible for initially creating the woodland opening, or if it was part of an opportunistic use of naturally occurring woodland clearings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

British summers are known to have become warmer and drier in recent decades, but has there also been a change in the timing of this season’s beginning, as has occurred for spring? This paper addresses this question by examining records of the first blooming date of early summer flowering plants (phenology) and the timing of first occurrences of warm ‘summer’ temperatures, both events that we associate with the onset of summer. This has revealed that the onset of summer in England has been advancing since the mid 1950s. The occurrence of ‘summer’ temperatures has advanced more than early summer flowering, by eleven and three days respectively in the 1990s compared to the period 1954–1963. This may have encouraged drought or heat wave conditions by prolonging the period of warm temperatures and lower rainfall in which these events occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper illustrates the potential impact of future climate change on the archaeological resource of river catchments, specifically in Britain, but with reference to other examples across the globe, when considering issues of generic applicability. It highlights an area of the environmental record often neglected by policy makers and environmental planners when considering the impact of climate change; where cultural heritage has been considered in the past, an emphasis has been placed on the historic built environment and major monuments. Through studying the recent past, particularly the last 1,000 years, geomorphologists and geoarchaeologists can add much empirical data to these debates concerning system response. In addition to the impact of the changing intensity and pattern of natural geomorphic processes, human response to climate change ranging from new farming practices through to the implementation of mitigation strategies to minimise the effects of increased flood frequency and magnitude could be equally as damaging to the archaeological record if not managed through informed decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the perceptions and responses of selected stakeholders to a very low probability but high consequence climatic ‘surprise’—a scenario of rapid collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, producing a global rise in sea-level of 5 m over 100 years. It uses a case study of the Thames Estuary, UK, including London. Through a process of dialogue involving one-to-one interviews and a 1-day policy exercise, we addressed influences on decision-making when information is uncertain and our ability to plan, prepare for and implement effective ways of coping with this extreme scenario. The interviews and policy exercise explored plausible responses to the scenario and identified weaknesses in flood management approaches to dealing with such an occurrence. The analysis shows that an extreme scenario could be highly challenging, even for an area with well-developed institutions. Participants favoured two options (a) reconfiguring London around the rising water, and (b) building a new downstream barrier which would allow London to continue as today. The lack of consensus suggests the potential for policy paralysis in response to what is a highly uncertain phenomena—this could lead to a forced, unplanned response as the rapid change overwhelmed the existing defence capability. Hence, low probability, high consequence climatic events may challenge our existing institutions. Adaptive management is presented as an approach which could address this challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A meta-modelling approach has been adopted to link simulations of low and high water flows with simulations of suitable climate space for a selection of fen and bog species with differing drought and flood tolerance. The linked meta-models were used to examine the impacts of socio-economic and climate change scenarios on wetlands in two contrasting regions of the UK. The hydrological model shows that low and high flows are sensitive to climate change and to the regional distribution of abstractions and discharges. Where there are large changes in urbanisation, flows are more sensitive to socio-economic change. The changes in high flows have little impact on the species selected, but changes in low flows result in a number of areas becoming marginal or unsuitable due to dryness. At the regional scale, adaptation options appear to be limited and mostly involve, for surface water-influenced wetlands, increased water imports (either directly through increased non-consumptive water demand or indirectly through river augmentation), which may not be consistent with the socio-economic scenario or be feasible. This paper shows, therefore, that changes in hydrological regime are important for the future of wetlands and that these may depend as much on the future socio-economic situation as the projected changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature and solar radiation estimates from the Hadley Centre's HadRM3 regional climate model (RCM), (50x50 km grid cells), with observed data from 15 meteorological station in the UK, for the period 1960-90. The aim was to investigate how well the HadRM3 is able to represent weather characteristics for a historical period (hindcast) for which validation data exist. The rationale was to determine if the HadRM3 data contain systematic errors and to investigate how suitable the data are for use in climate change impact studies at particular locations. Comparing modelled and observed data helps assess and quantify the uncertainty introduced to climate impact studies. The results show that the model performs very well for some locations and weather variable combinations, but poorly for others. Maximum temperature estimations are generally good, but minimum temperature is overestimated and extreme cold events are not represented well. For precipitation, the model produces too many small events leading to a serious under estimation of the number of dry days (zero precipitation), whilst also over- or underestimating the mean annual total. Estimates represent well the temporal distribution of precipitation events. The model systematically over-estimates solar radiation, but does produce good quality estimates at some locations. It is concluded that the HadRM3 data are unsuitable for detailed (i.e. daily time step simulation model based) site-specific impacts studies in their current form. However, the close similarity between modelled and observed data for the historical case raises the potential for using simple adjustment methods and applying these to future projection data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The UK’s Climate Change Programme introduced an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for greenhouse gases. Firms in over 40 industrial sectors which have negotiated “Climate Change Agreements” setting quantitative energy efficiency targets can use the ETS to trade over-and under-compliance with these targets. In parallel, a limited number of firms have become major participants in the ETS as a result of an auction of subsidies for additional abatement commitments. The paper describes the UK arrangements and assesses the economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness of the ETS, drawing on evidence of participants’ behaviour both in the incentive auction, and in subsequent trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) could achieve drastic cuts in the CO2 emissions associated with fossil fuels in the near to medium term and has been promoted as a significant climate change mitigation option. As the profile of this family of technologies grows rapidly, there remain many uncertainties relating to its viability, effectiveness and desirability. In this paper we begin to map out some of the key issues associated with CCS, using a multi-criteria approach to explore how an (admittedly small) selection of stakeholders perceive alternative storage options and energy scenarios. We present five long-term scenarios describing alternative ways in which the UK energy system could develop and which deploy different levels of carbon storage. The key storage options considered are oil and gas fields (both disused and with enhanced oil recovery), traps in saline aquifers, saline aquifers outside traps and on-shore sites. The relative performance of the scenarios and the storage reservoirs included within them have been assessed against a set of socio-economic, technical and environmental criteria by a small selection of stakeholders to the carbon storage debate. Whilst we cannot make strong conclusions regarding precise stakeholder opinions at this stage due to the small size of the sample, the broad delineation of the arguments for and against CCS are evident. Multi-criteria assessment (MCA) appears to hold much potential as a useful tool for characterising and better understanding differences in stakeholder assessments of CCS and its implications, and for identifying options around which greater consensus on the desirability (or otherwise) of CCS as a mitigation strategy might emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The February 2014 extratropical cyclonic storm chain, which impacted the English Channel (UK) and Dawlish in particular, caused significant damage to the main railway connecting the south-west region to the rest of the UK. The incident caused the line to be closed for two months, £50 million of damage and an estimated £1.2bn of economic loss. In this study, we collate eyewitness accounts, analyse sea level data and conduct numerical modelling in order to decipher the destructive forces of the storm. Our analysis reveals that the disaster management of the event was successful and efficient with immediate actions taken to save lives and property before and during the storm. Wave buoy analysis showed that a complex triple peak sea state with periods at 4–8, 8–12 and 20–25 s was present, while tide gauge records indicated that significant surge of up to 0.8 m and wave components of up to 1.5 m amplitude combined as likely contributing factors in the event. Significant impulsive wave force of up to 286 KN was the most likely initiating cause of the damage. Reflections off the vertical wall caused constructive interference of the wave amplitudes that led to increased wave height and significant overtopping of up to 16.1 m3/s/m (per metre width of wall). With this information and our engineering judgement, we conclude that the most probable sequence of multi-hazard cascading failure during this incident was: wave impact force leading to masonry failure, loss of infill and failure of the structure following successive tides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]