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Ecosystems respond to climatic and anthropogenic forcings with regime shifts and reorganizations of their system structures. In river basins, changes in sediment transport can have cascading effects that cause ecosystem regime shifts. The Yellow River, once the world's most sediment-rich river, has experienced dramatic regime shifts. Although recent intervention has returned sediment discharge in the Yellow River to pristine levels, our understanding of previous regime shifts remains inadequate, particularly for the regime shift to a sediment rich period during early historical time. We reanalyzed previous datasets to clarify the first historical sediment transport regime shift in the Yellow River. Our results show that while historical climatic changes (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period, about 900–1100 AD) caused changes in sediment transport, a regime shift occurred only under increased forcing from anthropogenic stresses (started from about 1350 AD, reached the tipping point after 1900 AD). This unique behavior of the Yellow River under increasing anthropogenic forces may provide perspective for sustainable river basin management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1999, Diexi paleo-dammed lake (2349 m a.s.l.) was discovered around Diexi town along the Minjiang River in Sichuan province. Diexi is located where the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin meet. The dammed lake was formed during the Last Glacial Maximum of the Late Pleistocene (~30,000 years ago) and began to empty about 15,000 years ago. The lacustrine sediments (up to 240 m thick) preserve abundant paleoenvironment information. In this paper, a mass of oxygen isotopes and 14C dating from drilled cores are analyzed and discussed. The δ18O curve on the paleo climate from this section is comparable with the coeval paleo climatic curves of ice cores and karsts in China and others. Furthermore, the physical model testing has confirmed that the disturbed zones in the core are caused by strong earthquakes occurred at least 10 times, which implies strong crustal deformation, as an important driving force, affecting climate change. This study provides a new window to observe East Asian monsoon formation, paleoenvironmental evolution and the global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many mountainous areas of the world, glaciers serve as a source of fresh water that is of critical importance and contributes to the sustainability of agriculture and other socio-economic activities. An enhanced understanding of socio-economic consequences of the climate-related glacier changes is essential to the identification of vulnerable entities and the development of well-targeted environmental adaptation policies. A questionnaire and interviews of farmers in the Heihe River Basin were used to analyze their perception of cryospheric changes, attitudes towards mitigation of cryospheric changes, and the ways in which they perceived their responsibility. Preferred responses and interventions for cryospheric change and views on responsible parties were also collected and evaluated. Our investigation revealed that most rural residents were concerned about glacier changes and believed they would bring harm to present society, individuals, and families, as well as to future generations. The respondents’ perceptions were mainly influenced by the mass media. Most respondents tended to favor adaptation measures implemented by the government and other policy-making departments. An integrated approach will be needed to deal with the challenges to tackling climate-related glacier change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the natural hydrology behaviors were greatly influenced by climate change. The relation between runoff and climate change are always the core of scientific hydrological study in arid region. This paper presents a multi-variate time series controlled auto-regressive (CAR) model based on hydrological and climatic data of typical tributaries Jinghe River in Ebinur Lake Basin of Xinjiang covering the period from 1957 to 2012. The aim is to study the climate change and its effects on runoff of the Jinghe River, Northwest China. The results showed the following: the runoff of the Jinghe River was unevenly distributed and has obvious seasonal changes throughout the year. It was concentrated in summer and has along dry season with less runoff. The monthly maximum river runoff was from June to September and accounted for 74% of annual runoff. The river runoff increased since the 1980s till the 1990s; in the 21st century there was a trend of decreasing. The oscillatory period of annual runoff series in the Jinghe River Basin was 21a and 13a, and these periods were more obvious, followed by 32a and 9a. The oscillation with a time scale of 21a and 13a was a fulltimed domain. The MRE is 6.54%, the MAE is 0.84 × 108 m3, and the RMSE is 0.039. The CAR model passed the F-test and residual test, and the change trend of calculated and measured values of annual runoff is consistence, which means that the model was reasonable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial distribution and seasonal variations of methylmercury (MeHg) in Wen-Rui-Tang (WRT) River network were investigated by monitoring the MeHg concentrations in surface water samples collected from 30 sites across the river network over four seasons. Detection frequencies and concentrations of MeHg were generally higher in January, indicating that low sunlight irradiation, wind speed, and temperature conditions might enhance the persistence of MeHg in surface water. The MeHg levels varied with sampling locations, with the highest concentrations being observed in the industrial area especially around wastewater outfall, revealing that the mercury contamination in WRT River mainly comes from the industrial wastewater. Photodegradation of MeHg in WRT River surface water and the effects of natural constituents such as fulvic acid (FA), ferric ions (Fe), nitrate (NO ), and dissolved oxygen on the MeHg photodegradation in aqueous solutions were studied under the simulated sunlight. The experimental data indicated that the indirect photodecomposition of MeHg occurred in WRT River surface water. Photodegradation of MeHg in FA solution was initiated by triplet FA* or MeHg-FA* via electron transfer interaction under light irradiations. The Fe and NO can absorb light energy to produce ·OH and enhance the photochemical degradation of MeHg. The MeHg photodecompositions in FA, nitrate, and Fe solutions were markedly accelerated after removing the dissolved oxygen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copula-based bivariate frequency analysis can be used to investigate the changes in flood characteristics in the Huai River Basin that could be caused by climate change. The univariate distributions of historical flood peak, maximum 3-day and 7-day volumes in 1961-2000 and future values in 2061-2100 projected from two GCMs (CSIRO-MK3.5 and CCCma-CGCM3.1) under A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios are analyzed and compared. Then, bivariate distributions of peaks and volumes are constructed based on the copula method and possible changes in joint return periods are characterized. Results indicate that the Clayton copula is more appropriate for historical and CCCma-CGCM3.1 simulating flood variables, while that of Frank and Gumbel are better fitted to CSIRO-MK3.5 simulations. The variations of univariate and bivariate return periods reveal that flood characteristics may be more sensitive to different GCMs than different emission scenarios. Between the two GCMs, CSIRO-MK3.5 evidently predicts much more severe flood conditions in future, especially under B1 scenario, whereas CCCma-CGCM3.1 generally suggests contrary changing signals. This study corroborates that copulas can serve as a viable and flexible tool to connect univariate marginal distributions of flood variables and quantify the associated risks, which may provide useful information for risk-based flood control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) have had on runoff change; however, the influence of temperature on runoff needs to be further studied. We attempted to employ the improved elasticity method to evaluate the effects of climate factors (CF, especially temperature) on runoff change for Aksu River in the arid region of northwest China. Data from Aksu River in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff and CF during the period of 1960-2010. The key findings of this study indicated that the annual runoff had a significant ( P < 0.01) increasing trend with a rate of 3.78 × 10 m/decade, and the temperature and precipitation also exhibited significant rising trends, at a rate of 0.28 °C/decade ( P < 0.01) and 15.11 mm/decade ( P < 0.05), respectively, while PET showed a decreasing trend (22.66 mm/decade, P < 0.01). Step change point in runoff occurred in the year 1993. Thus, we employed the mean runoff and climate factors during the period 1960-1993 as the benchmark value to measure the change. In 1994-2010, mean runoff increased by 22 %. Results also revealed that temperature rising was the most important factor that increased runoff with contribution of 45 %, while precipitation and PET were responsible for 22 and 27 % of the runoff change, respectively, indicating that the runoff of increasing percentage only accounted for 6 % owing to human activities and other factors, and showed that climate variability was the main reason for the runoff change in Aksu River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To identify the changing characteristics of runoff and climate change trends and their relationship in the Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR), this study uses the runoff and meteorological data of three hydrological gauging stations and 12 meteorological stations across the TRHR for the period from January 1960 to December 2009 as the research subjects. The runoff coefficient (RC), ratio of monthly maximum/minimum runoff, and flow duration curves (FDCs) were calculated to identify spatio-temporal variations in runoff and reflect the change in hydrological regime. Results showed an insignificant decrease in annual runoff both in the Yellow River Headwater Region (YERHR) and the Lantsang River Headwater Region (LARHR), whereas it increased in the Yangtze River Headwater Region (YARHR). The RC of the three sub-regions showed a decreasing trend, the LARHR maintained a high mean value of 0.55, followed by a lower value in the YERHR (0.32), and that in the YARHR was the lowest at only 0.23. The variations in monthly maximum/minimum runoff were synchronized; their ratios were relatively steady in the study period. The flow duration analysis showed a remarkable decline in high runoff (at a frequency of 5-15%) in the three sub-regions after 1990. The runoff characteristics showed an overall decrease in the YERHR, the moderate runoff (at the frequency of 15-30% and 40-70%) of the YARHR showed an obviously increase, and the runoff of the LARHR was relatively steady. The relationship between precipitation, temperature and runoff illustrated that precipitation was the dominant factor in runoff generation, whereas the impacts of temperature on regional hydrological regime should not be neglected. Results of this study are of practical significance for water resources management and evaluation of the impacts of climatic change on the hydrological regime in a long-term consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the main factors that affect runoff changes. In the upstream of Minjiang River, the temperature increased significantly in the last 50 years, while the precipitation decreased on the contrary. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on site runoff, watershed runoff depth and evaporation, nine climate scenarios are assumed based on rainfall and temperature indicators. A SWAT model of Minjiang River is constructed, and runoff simulation is carried out with the nine scenarios. The results show that if precipitation increases or decreases 20 %, the change rate of runoff depth will increase or decrease 28-32 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of runoff depth will decrease or increase 1-6 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of the potential evaporation will increase or decrease 5-16 %, and the actual evaporation rate of variation will increase or decrease 1-6 %. Overall, precipitation variation has greater effect on simulated runoff than temperature variation dose. In addition, temperature variation has more obvious effect on the runoff simulation results in dry years than in wet years. The actual evaporation of watershed depends on evaporation capacity and precipitation and increases with the increasing of the potential evaporation and precipitation. The study also shows that the climate change scenarios analysis technology, combined with SWAT hydrological model, can effectively simulate the effect of climate change on runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerability, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions (Class II WRRs), third-class water resource regions (Class III WRRs), Province-Class II WRRs, and Province-Class III WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class II WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class III WRRs and Province-Class III WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction and operation of hydropower reservoirs on the Lancang River have drawn worldwide concern, because streamflow changes have occurred in this river since the introduction of dams. To address these concerns, it is necessary to quantitatively assess relative contributions of climatic variations and human activities to these changes. In this research, Mann-Kendall method was used to assess the trends in hydro-climatic data. The streamflow data were divided into a reference period (1956-1985) and a change period (1986-2008) based on hydropower reservoir construction timeline. The Back-Propagation Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) model was used to reconstruct natural streamflow. The contributions of climatic variations and human activities were investigated at the yearly, seasonal and monthly time scales. The results indicate that human activities exerted a slightly greater impact on flow changes than did climatic variations, at the yearly time scale (54.6 and 45.4 %, respectively). At the seasonal time scale, climatic variations made a greater contribution (65.8 %) during the wet season, while the contribution of human activities became the dominant factor during the dry season (85.3 %). At the monthly time scale, the contribution of climatic variations in January, June, August, and September was greater than that of human activities, while in the remaining eight months, human activities exerted a greater contribution than did climatic variation. The relative contributions of human activities and climatic variations ( RCs) were also determined during the single- and cascade-dam periods; these did not always increase at the three time scales when dam system shifted from single-dam to cascade-dam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Selecting the Yarkand River as a typical representative of an inland river in northwest China, We identified the variation pattern of hydro-climatic process based on the hydrological and meteorological data during the period of 1957 ~ 2008, and constructed an integrated model to simulate the change of annual runoff (AR) with annual average temperature (AAT) and annual precipitation (AP) by combining wavelet analysis (WA) and artificial neural network (ANN) at different time scale. The results showed that the pattern of hydro-climatic process is scale-dependent in time. At 16-year and 32-year time scale, AR presents a monotonically increasing trend with the similar trend of AAT and AP. But at 2-year, 4-year, and 8-year time scale, AR exhibits a nonlinear variation with fluctuations of AAT and AP. The back propagation artificial neural network based on wavelet decomposition (BPANNBWD) well simulated the change of AR with AAT and AP at the all five time scales. Compared to the traditional statistics model, the simulation effect of BPANNBWD is better than that of multiple linear regression (MLR) at every time scale. The results also revealed the fact that the simulation effect at a larger time scale (e.g. 16-year or 32-year scale) is better than that at a smaller time scale (e.g. 2-year or 4-year scale). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of global and regional climate change and heightened human activities, runoff from some rivers in the world, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions, has significantly decreased. To reveal the varying characteristics leading to the change in runoff, detecting the influencing factors has been important in recent scientific discussions for water resources management in drainage basins. In this paper, an investigation into attributing the runoff response to climate change and human activities were conducted in two catchments (Wushan and Shetang), situated in the upper reaches of Weihe River in China. Prior to the identification of the factors that influenced runoff changes, the Mann-Kendall test was adopted to identify the trends in hydro-climate series. Also, change-points in the annual runoff were detected through Pettitt's test and the precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve method. It is found that both catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff and the detected change-point in runoff occurs in 1993. Hence, the pre-change period and post-change period are defined before and after 1993, respectively. Then, runoff response to climate change and human activities was quantitatively evaluated on the basis of hydrologic sensitivity analysis and hydrologic model simulation. They provided similar estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the post-change period over the considered catchments. It is found that the decline in annual runoff over both catchments can be mainly attributed to the human activities, the reduction percentages due to human activities range from 59 to 77 %. The results of this study can provide a reference for the development, utilization and management of the regional water resources and ecological environment protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree-day factor (DDF) is a key parameter in the degree-day model, and the variations in DDF have the significant effects on the accuracy of glacier mass balance modeling. In this study, Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of Ürümqi (乌鲁木齐) River in China was selected, and the estimated DDF by stakes-observed mass balance and meteorological data from 1983–2006 was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of DDF and its influencing factors, such as climate condition, surface feature, and topography. Then, the ablations from the 1980s to 2000s were estimated using the degree-day model, and the ablation change from the 1980s to 2000s was divided into the changes caused by climate change and by the ice-surface feature. The following results were obtained: (1) The annual change in DDF for snow was not obvious, whereas that for ice increased, and the increasing trend on the lower glacier was more significant than that on the upper glacier because of decreased albedo caused by variations in ice-surface feature; (2) The DDF for ice clearly decreased with altitude by approximately 0.046 and 0.043 mm·°C −1·d −1·m −1 on the east and west branches, respectively, and the DDF of the west branch was obviously larger than that of the east branch in the same altitude belt; (3) the changes in mass balance in the summers from the 1980s to 2000s were −391 and −467 mm on the east and west branches, respectively. Among the total changes, the components directly caused by climate change were −193 and −198 mm, whereas those indirectly caused by ice-surface feature change were −198 and −269 mm on the east and west branches, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary of the middle and lower Yellow River below the Sanmenxia Dam. Hydro-climatic variables have changed in the Yiluo River during the last half century. In this study, the trends in the annual precipitation and streamflow were analyzed in the Yiluo River during 1960-2006. The results indicated that both the annual precipitation and streamflow decreased significantly ( P < 0.05) from 1960 to 2006. Pettitt's test shows that there was a change point for annual streamflow series around the year 1986 ( P < 0.05), while there was no change point identified for the annual precipitation series from 1960 to 2006. Annual streamflow decreased more significantly than annual precipitation since 1986. The relationship between the annual precipitation and streamflow presented a non-stationary state since 1986. This non-stationary relationship was mainly influenced by human activities. The average annual amount of water diversion from the Yiluo River increased significantly since the mid-1980s, accounting for 31.3 % of the total streamflow decrease from 1986 to 2006. In addition, land use/cover change (LUCC) contributed to 27.1-29.8 % of the decrease in streamflow. Human activities, including water diversion and LUCC, together contributed to 58.4-61.1 % of the decrease in streamflow and led to the non-stationary relationship between the annual precipitation and streamflow from 1986 to 2006. This study detected the changes in the precipitation-streamflow relationship and investigated the possible causes in the Yiluo River, which will be helpful for the understanding of the changes in streamflow in the Yellow River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Karst areas have much higher ecological vulnerability and are easy to be contaminated by polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) which are introduced as health risk pollutants. PCBs concentrations were used to understand the transport behavior of PCBs conducted in the karst Nanshan Underground River, China. Water and sediments from the underground river water, and sediments and soil from the surface of the corresponding watershed were collected monthly in 2011 and 2012 and PCBs were analyzed. Seasonal variations were found in concentrations of PCBs both in the waters and sediments. PCBs concentrations varied from 0.3 to 29.9 ng·L in the groundwater, while from 0.1 to 366.1 ng·g in the underground sediments. Correlations were found in concentrations of PCBs in waters and sediments between the underground river and surface systems which indicate that the surface systems play a major role for the transport of PCBs and contamination in the underground river systems. Karst features are liable for the transport behavior. The underground river waters transport PCBs at mean 3 g·day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aim: Because the indigenous burrowing lagomorph plateau pika ( Ochotona curzoniae) is considered to have negative ecological impacts on alpine meadow steppe grasslands of the Headwaters Region of the Yellow, Yangtze and Mekong Rivers we investigated its effects on ecosystem productivity and soil properties, and especially net ecosystem carbon flux. Methods: We measured net ecosystem CO exchange (NEE) and its components gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at peak aboveground biomass by the chamber method with reference to plant and soil characteristics of areas of alpine meadow steppe with different densities of pika burrows. Results: Higher burrow density decreased NEE, GEP and ER. Above-ground biomass, species number, plant cover and leaf area index decreased with increasing pika density. Higher burrow density was associated with lower soil moisture and higher soil temperature. Responses of NEE were related to changes of abiotic and biotic factors affecting its two components. NEE was positively related to soil moisture, soil ammonium nitrogen, plant cover, leaf area index and above-ground biomass but was negatively correlated with higher soil nitrate nitrogen. Conclusion: Decrease of NEE by plateau pika may reduce the carbon sink balance of Qinghai-Tibet plateau grassland. Such effects may be influenced by grazing pressure from domestic livestock, population levels of natural predators, and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai's water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Province, China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model (HadCM3) coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009. The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series, derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435°C per decade, and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade. Compared with other seasons, the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend, while a significant upward trend in autumn. The annual streamflow demonstrates a general downward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m/s per decade. The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn, respectively. The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m/s per decade, which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow. The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focused on the changes of reference evapotranspiration (ET) and pan evaporation (ET) to study the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle in the Jinghe River catchment. Based on the Penman-Monteith equation, the ET was calculated. The temporal trend and spatial distribution of ET and E measured with a 20-cm pan were examined at the 14 stations during 1957-2005. The effects of meteorological factors on the variation of ET were determined by analyzing the trends in themselves with comparison between original climate and detrended climate scenarios and then their sensitivity to ET. Both the ET and E showed remarkable decreasing trends from 1957 to 2005 and their decreasing rate was 40.9 and 17.7 mm per 10 years, respectively. Trend analysis of meteorological factors exhibited that the reduction in ET and ET was principally caused by both significant decreases in wind speed and sunshine hours. Furthermore, the decreasing trend of ET was mainly dominated by the significant decrease in wind speed with high sensitivity, to a less extent, by the decrease in net radiation. Although relative humidity is one of the most sensitive variables, its effect on ET was negligible because of its temporal constancy. The contribution of wind speed reduction to decreased ET has increased from 50 to 76.1%, but net radiation, by contrast, decreased from 50 to 23.9%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic and meteorological data for the past 50 years recorded by six meteorological stations and the Kenswatt Hydrological Station in the headstream of the Manas River watershed. The long-term trends of climate change and hydrological variations were determined in a nonparametric test, and the periodicities were determined employing the extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis. Subsequently, a periodicity-trend superposition model was used to predict future change. The results show that both the climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and runoff have increased considerably and have significant relations; the relation between temperature and runoff is the more significant. There is periodicity of 18 years in the change in annual runoff, and the primary periodicity of changes in temperature and precipitation is, respectively, 3 and 15 years. The runoff variations are affected by climate change in the headstream, but do not shift simultaneously with abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation in the headstream. There is a significant positive relationship in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and runoff, while there are negative correlations annually and in summer for the runoff lagging the NAO by 1 year. The NAO has certain effects on climate change that are mainly due to atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, and thus, the NAO affects the runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of this study was to assess the long-term impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources of the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. Temperature, precipitation and hydrology data during the past 29 years from 1979 to 2007 were collected and analyzed using parametric and non-parametric methods, the connection between temperature and precipitation by the combination of grey correlation analysis method and the hypothesis testing for trend of climate change. The results show a high increase in temperature in the study area as well as an extreme and highly variable hydrological regime in this region, where flash floods can exceed the total runoff from a sequence of years. These variations may be due to the geographical location of the Kaidu River Basin in arid zone. It also reveals that precipitation has a much greater impact on stream flow than that of temperature. The development of new approaches was proposed as responses to climate change in this arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Songhua River plays a key role in the national development of China, owing to its unique natural condition and resources. Recent changes in the streamflow in the Songhua River are important with regard to local sustainable development and management under the background of global warming and aggravating soil erosion. In order to detect changes in the streamflow, two streamflow series from 1955 to 2004 (observed at the Harbin and Jiamusi stations) in the mainstream of Songhua River basin were obtained, and methods of statistical analysis, wavelet transform, and double mass analysis were employed to analyze the data. Reasons for the changes to the streamflow are discussed with respect to natural and man-made drivers. The results show the following: (1) From 1955 to 2004, the streamflow series present obvious declining trends. (2) The streamflow series followed the pattern of a wet-dry-wet-dry cycle pattern over the past 50 years. In the mainstream of Songhua River, wet years mainly occurred during the periods of 1955-1966 and 1984-1993, while dry years mainly occurred in the 1970s and after 2000. (3) Within the 50-year scale, the streamflow series appeared in the main periods of circa 33-, 13- and 4-year, in which the 33-year periodicity is the strongest. (4) Precipitation and temperature directly influenced the streamflow in the mainstream of the basin. The discharge was positively correlated with the precipitation and negatively correlated with the temperature. In addition, human activity was another important driving factor for streamflow change. (5) In the mainstream of Songhua River basin, the influences on streamflow can be divided into three periods: 1955-1976, 1977-1997, and 1998-2004. In the first period climate change played a dominant role, and during the latter two periods human influences were enhanced significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial and temporal variability of winter extreme low-temperature events and summer extreme high-temperature events was investigated using daily air temperature series (1960–2004) from 66 sites in the Yellow River basin, China, with the help of Mann–Kendall trend test method. In this study an extreme temperature event is defined by exceeding or falling below various threshold values of daily maximum and daily minimum air temperature: 90th percentile, 95th percentile for the high-temperature events; 10th percentile and 5th percentile for the low-temperature events. The analysis results indicate that: 1) significant upward trend of frequency and intensity of the high-temperature events is found in the stations in the west and north part of the Yellow River basin, but trends in most stations in the middle and lower Yellow River basin are not significant at >95% confidence level; 2) almost the whole Yellow River basin is dominated by the significant downward trend of frequency of the cold events. Stations featured by the increasing winter minimum temperature are also more than those featured by changing summer maximum temperature; and 3) annual warming trend in the Yellow River basin mainly results from the increase in winter minimum temperature. Significant warming in the upper reach of the Yellow River will be likely to threaten the availability of the water resource in the whole basin, which should draw certain concerns from local policy-makers and water resource management agency in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation division and climate shift in China were analysed using daily precipitation data from 486 stations for the period 1960–2000. A modified hierarchical clustering method was used to divide China into sub-regions that have a coherent annual cycle, interannual evolutions and long-term trends. A division with 20 grouping areas can well describe the anomalous regional features seasonally, and a division with 40 grouping areas can reach a relatively stable level, theoretically for the annual and summer precipitation in mainland China. Rapid changes or interdecadal transition points of the regional precipitation series are detected by a multiple timescale t-test method. For mean annual precipitation, the interdecadal shift from a low to a high level is found to occur around 1987 in the Xinjiang region and around 1983 in Northeast China. The transition points of increasing summer rainfall in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the lower Yangtze River are centred closely about 1979. Changes in the double-decadal precipitation are also detected for the two periods of 1961–1980 and 1981–2000. An increasing trend in annual precipitation is mainly found in the lower Yangtze River valley, the Xinjiang region, and Northeast China. Decreasing annual precipitation is mainly situated from the middle Yangtze River to the Yellow River. In summer and winter, the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies shows two pairs of contrasting shifts with negative departures in North China and southern coastal China, while positive departures are found in the middle and lower Yangtze River valley and Northeast China. This pattern of regional precipitation shift in China is associated with southerly monsoon flow in eastern China and westerly flow in northwestern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the climate change and human activities are the major influence factors to the sediment change in mountainous rivers. Based on the over 40 years' record, suspended sediment loads (SSL) change at the Manhao gauging station in the lower reaches of Yuanjiang River (upper Red River). In this paper, the variation of the sediment and its drivers were analyzed through different methods such as synchronous data comparison, traditional correlation, linear regression, and Granger causality. The results show that (1) the general trend of the annual average sediment concentration (SSC) and SSL at Manhao station is increasing from the 1960s to the 1990s, and there is a quick change period after 1984; (2) the SSL and SSC at Manhao station, during different periods of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, are 1.87, 2.49, 3.12, 3.63 kg/m3, and 28.7×106, 40.3×106, 44.1×106, 60.3×106 t/a, respectively; (3) the correlation analysis and the Granger causality test proved that the climate changes in the catchment were the main driving factors to the sediment variation in the period of 1960s and 1990s, but the influence by the mountainous human actions on the sediment change is stronger than that by the local climate changes in the 1970s and 1980s; (4) the correlation between the sediment changes and the forest coverage change is negative, which further proves that the sediment changes are strongly affected by the human activities in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Inner Mongolia grassland of China is representative of semi-arid grasslands in temperate zones. Studying land surface processes in this region will improve the understanding of regional climate formation and the feedback with global climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides an excellent opportunity to study land-atmosphere interactions at the regional scale. It is necessary to develop feasible and reasonable remote sensing-based methods to map surface energy fluxes for a specific study area. In this paper, previously published algorithms and empirical formulae were tested with Landsat 7 ETM+ data to derive the regional distributions of land surface reflectance, surface temperature, NDVI and land surface energy fluxes (net radiation, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) over the upper Xilin River watershed in Inner Mongolia, China. A new land use/land cover classification was developed and applied for regionalization analysis. Validation of remote sensing derived surface reflectance, surface temperature, net radiation and sensible heat flux with field measurements shows differences of about 13, 4, 1, and 28%, respectively. This study provides valuable guidance for further investigation of the whole watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatological features and variations of wet spells, especially their trends over China, are investigated using a dataset of 594 meteorological stations across China from 1951 to 2003. The results show that the lower the latitude is, the longer the annual duration of wet spells is. The mean annual precipitation from wet spells is higher in southeastern coastal areas and much lower in western and northern China. The longest wet spells are found in Southwest China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The maximum daily precipitation of wet spells decreases from the southeast to the northwest, with the highest in southeastern coastal areas and the lowest in western China. The trends of wet spells exhibit striking regional differences. In most areas of western China, the annual number of days in wet spells has slightly increased, but significantly decreased over North China, Central China and Southwest China. The annual precipitation amount from wet spells displays significant downward trends in North China, eastern Northeast China and the eastern part of Southwest China, but upward trends in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and some southeastern coastal areas. Two clearly-contrasting regions in climatic changes of wet spells are the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River and the eastern Tibetan Plateau, characterized by a decrease of about 24 days and an increase of about 6 days in annual wet spell days from 1953 to 2003, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of runoff to the climate change in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region (LRGR) in southwest China was investigated with a case study in the Longchuan Basin of the upper Yangtze River, where the climate change is more complex due to the influences from both global warming and local topography. Non-updating artificial neural networks were calibrated and validated at the baseline condition and were used to predict the response of runoff under 25 hypothetical climate scenarios, which were generated by adjusting the baseline temperature by -1, 0, 1, 2 and 3°C and by scaling rainfall by 0%, ± 10% and ± 20%. The results indicated that runoff is more sensitive to the increase in rainfall. The annual and seasonal runoff changes were determined by the interaction between temperature and rainfall. At seasonal scale, the direction of change in runoff is more determined by temperature in winter and spring; whereas it is more determined by rainfall in summer and autumn. The LRGR in southwest China may experience a higher frequency of floods in the wet season and more serious droughts in the dry season, if a wetter summer and warmer winter is the trend of future climate change, as predicted by many GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although satellite radar altimetry was developed and optimized for open oceans, it has been used to monitor variations in the level of inland water-bodies such as lakes and rivers. Here, for the first time, we have further used the altimetry-derived variation of water level for estimating the fluctuation of water storage as an addition to the present in situ water storage estimation systems to be used in remote areas and in emergency situation such as in the events flooding monitoring and for studying the effect of climate change. Lake Dongting, the second largest lake in China, influenced frequently by flooding, was, therefore, chosen to demonstrate the potential of the technique. By using the concept of an “assumed reference point”, we converted Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry data on water level variations in Lake Dongting to “water level” data. The “water level” time-series data and in situ water storage were used to establish a rating curve. From the rating curve, we converted data on “water level” derived from seven years (1993–1999) of Topex/Poseidon data to actual water storage in Lake Dongting. The result reveals that the seasonal and annual fluctuations of water storage occurred during the 1990s with a more frequent flooding at the late 1990s' especially the flooding in whole catchment level in 1998 and 1999. The study supports the usefulness of satellite altimetry for dense and continuous monitoring of the temporal variations in water dynamic in moderate to large lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to high productivity, periodic submersion, and rapid sedimentation rate, mangroves are important carbon sinks in tropical-subtropical coastal zones. Mangrove expansion can significantly enhance burial carbon storage in coastal zones and has been reported in many subtropical regions due to climate change in recent years. To better understand the response of carbon storage to climate change in subtropical-tropical coastal zones, it is necessary to estimate the change in burial organic carbon (OC) storage in mangroves undergoing expansion. In the Nanliu River estuary of South China, the total mangrove area has increased from 72 to 622 ha in recent decades. Based on a sedimentology study combined with historical satellite images analysis, the accumulation rate of burial OC in these mangroves is estimated to be 400–500 g‧m−2‧y−1, of which the part imported to the stratigraphy beneath the mangrove deposit layer is approximately 130 g‧m−2‧y−1. Globally, the reported OC accumulation rate is linearly correlated to the accretion rate in mangroves. The accumulation rate of mangrove burial OC estimated in this study is significantly higher than the corresponding value on this fitted curve, indicating that the OC accumulation rates may be underestimated in such mangroves because the OC imported to the lower root layer has been not been taken into account. Based on the estimated OC accumulation rate and the time-series data of the mangrove area, the increase in burial OC storage in the mangroves of the Nanliu River estuary from 1988 to 2018 is estimated at more than 35 Gg. This study provides an example of estimating soil OC storage increase in expanding mangroves, which can help us better understand the response of coastal carbon pool to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) is the headwater of the Yangtze River Basin (YARB), Yellow River Basin (YRB), and Lancang River Basin (LRB); it is known as China's 'Water Tower' owing to its important supply of freshwater. In order to assess ecosystem changes in the TRHR during 2000–2012, we systematically and comprehensively evaluated a combination of model simulation results and actual observational data. The results showed the following: (1) Ecosystem pattern was relatively stable during 2000–2010, with a slight decrease in farmland and desert areas, and a slight increase in grassland and wetland/water-body areas. (2) A warmer and wetter climate, and ecological engineering, caused the vegetation cover and productivity to significantly improve. (3) Precipitation was the main controlling factor for streamflow. A significant increase in precipitation during 2000–2012 resulted in an obvious increase in annual and seasonal streamflow. Glacier melting also contributed to the streamflow increase. (4) The total amount of soil conservation increased slightly from 2000 to 2012. The increase in precipitation caused rainfall erosivity to increase, which enhanced the intensity of soil erosion. The decrease in wind speed decreased wind erosion and the frequency of sandstorms. (5) The overall habitat quality in the TRHR was stable between 2000 and 2010, and the spatial pattern exhibited obvious heterogeneity. In some counties that included nature reserves, habitat quality was slightly higher in 2010 than in 2000, which reflected the effectiveness of the ecological restoration. Overall, the aforementioned ecosystem changes are the combined results of ecological restoration and climate change, and they are likely a local and temporary improvement, rather than a comprehensive and fundamental change. Therefore, more investments and efforts are needed to preserve natural ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]