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Extreme temperatures have increased in intensity, duration and frequency in the last century, with potential consequences on key ecological processes such as organic matter breakdown. Many stream ecosystems are fueled by the breakdown of terrestrial leaf litter, which is exposed to atmospheric conditions for certain periods of time before entering the stream. Thus, extreme warming or freezing events may affect the litter physicochemical structure, which could translate into altered breakdown within the stream. The above prediction was tested by exposing litter of common riparian tree species in southern Chile to freezing (−20 ºC; dry or wet litter) or heating (40 ºC) and comparing breakdown with control litter exposed to room temperature (20 ºC), separating the effects of different breakdown agents (i.e., leaching, microorganisms and detritivores). The greatest effects were found in wet litter subjected to freezing; this treatment significantly increased leaching in the short term (48 h) and slowed down breakdown in the long term (30 days), mostly due to the inhibition of microbial breakdown. Heating also retarded microbial breakdown, but the effect was smaller. Our results suggest that short-term extreme temperatures—particularly cold ones—have the potential to slow down litter breakdown in streams, which will most likely impact global biogeochemical cycles where streams play a key role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale, and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971-2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 °C (3.3 °C) in 2050s (2080s), whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro, and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia's complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial and temporal variability of winter extreme low-temperature events and summer extreme high-temperature events was investigated using daily air temperature series (1960–2004) from 66 sites in the Yellow River basin, China, with the help of Mann–Kendall trend test method. In this study an extreme temperature event is defined by exceeding or falling below various threshold values of daily maximum and daily minimum air temperature: 90th percentile, 95th percentile for the high-temperature events; 10th percentile and 5th percentile for the low-temperature events. The analysis results indicate that: 1) significant upward trend of frequency and intensity of the high-temperature events is found in the stations in the west and north part of the Yellow River basin, but trends in most stations in the middle and lower Yellow River basin are not significant at >95% confidence level; 2) almost the whole Yellow River basin is dominated by the significant downward trend of frequency of the cold events. Stations featured by the increasing winter minimum temperature are also more than those featured by changing summer maximum temperature; and 3) annual warming trend in the Yellow River basin mainly results from the increase in winter minimum temperature. Significant warming in the upper reach of the Yellow River will be likely to threaten the availability of the water resource in the whole basin, which should draw certain concerns from local policy-makers and water resource management agency in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation division and climate shift in China were analysed using daily precipitation data from 486 stations for the period 1960–2000. A modified hierarchical clustering method was used to divide China into sub-regions that have a coherent annual cycle, interannual evolutions and long-term trends. A division with 20 grouping areas can well describe the anomalous regional features seasonally, and a division with 40 grouping areas can reach a relatively stable level, theoretically for the annual and summer precipitation in mainland China. Rapid changes or interdecadal transition points of the regional precipitation series are detected by a multiple timescale t-test method. For mean annual precipitation, the interdecadal shift from a low to a high level is found to occur around 1987 in the Xinjiang region and around 1983 in Northeast China. The transition points of increasing summer rainfall in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the lower Yangtze River are centred closely about 1979. Changes in the double-decadal precipitation are also detected for the two periods of 1961–1980 and 1981–2000. An increasing trend in annual precipitation is mainly found in the lower Yangtze River valley, the Xinjiang region, and Northeast China. Decreasing annual precipitation is mainly situated from the middle Yangtze River to the Yellow River. In summer and winter, the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies shows two pairs of contrasting shifts with negative departures in North China and southern coastal China, while positive departures are found in the middle and lower Yangtze River valley and Northeast China. This pattern of regional precipitation shift in China is associated with southerly monsoon flow in eastern China and westerly flow in northwestern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interests on climate change in the source region of Yangtze River have been raised since It Is a region with the greatest warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A 70-year history of precipitation δ18O has been recovered using an Ice core record retrieved in a plat portion of the firn area In the Guoqu Glacier (33°34′37.8″N, 91°10′35.3″E, 5720 m a.s.l.), Mt. Geladaindong (the source region of Yangtze River), In November, 2005. By using a significant positive relationship between ice core δ18O record and summer air temperature (July to September) from the nearby meteorological stations, a history of summer air temperature has been reconstructed for the last 70 years. Summer temperature was relatively low in 1940s and high in 1950s to the middle of 1960s. The lowest temperature occurred In the middle of 1970s. Temperature was low in 1980s and dramatically increased since 1990s, keeping the trend to the beginning of the 21st century. The warming rate recorded in the ice core with 0.5°C/10 a since 1970s is much higher that that in the central TP and the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and it becomes 1.1°C/10 a since 1990s which is also higher than these from the central TP and the NH, reflecting an accelerated warming and a more sensitive response to global warming in the high elevation region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations in the characteristics of ice regime of rivers in the Northern Dvina basin over the last 125 years are analyzed. For the Northern Dvina lower course, potential changes in the dates of the appearance of floating ice and the breakup due to expected changes in the air temperature and the rate of streamflow in rivers are assessed. Special attention is paid to the factors that affect the formation of ice jams and their spatial and temporal variability. The prognostic relationship for the maximum ice-jam stage in the Sukhona River near the town of Velikii Ustyug is presented as an example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Arctic environments are generally believed to be highly sensitive to human-induced climatic change. In this paper, we explore the impacts on the hydrological system of the sub-arctic Tana Basin in Northernmost Finland and Norway. In contrast with previous studies, attention is not only given to river discharge, but also to the spatial patterns in snow coverage and evapotranspiration. We used a distributed water balance model that was coupled to a regional climate model in order to calculate a scenario of climate change by the end of this century. Three different model experiments were performed, adopting different approaches to using the climate model output in the hydrological model runs. The results were largely consistent, indicating a much shorter snow season and, accordingly, decreased sublimation, an increase in evapotranspiration, and a shift in the annual runoff peak. As the snow-free season is extended, the amount of solar radiation that is received during this period increases significantly. The results also show important local differences in the hydrological response to climate change. For example, in the scenario runs, the snow season was more than 30 days shorter at higher elevations, but in some of the river valleys, this was up to 70 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatio-temporal variations of the water budget components in the Amazon region are investigated by using a combination of hydrometeorological observations and moisture fluxes derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, for the period 1970-1999. The key new finding of this study identifies the major differences in the water balance characteristics and variability between the northern and southern parts of the basin. Our results show that there is a seasonality and interannual variability of the water balance that varies across the basin. At interannual time scales, anomalies in the water balance components in the northern Amazon region show relatively stronger links with tropical Pacific interannual variability. Over the entire region, precipitation exceeds evaporation and the basin acts as a sink of moisture (P>E). However, on some occasions the basin can act as a source for moisture (P

River flow to the Baltic Sea originates under a range of different climate regimes in a drainage basin covering some 1 600 000 km2. Changes to the climate in the Baltic Basin will not only affect the total amount of freshwater flowing into the sea, but also the distribution of the origin of these flows. Using hydrological modeling, the effects of future climate change on river runoff to the Baltic Sea have been analyzed. Four different climate change scenarios from the Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) were used. The resulting change to total mean annual river flow to the Baltic Sea ranges from -2% to +15% of present-day flow according to the different climate scenarios. The magnitude of changes within different subregions of the basin varies considerably, with the most severe mean annual changes ranging from -30% to +40%. However, common to all of the scenarios evaluated is a general trend of reduced river flow from the south of the Baltic Basin together with increased river flow from the north. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of an experimental `end to end' assessment of the effects of climate change on water resources in the western United States are described. The assessment focuses on the potential effects of climate change over the first half of the 21st century on the Columbia, Sacramento/San Joaquin, and Colorado river basins. The paper describes the methodology used for the assessment, and it summarizes the principal findings of the study. The strengths and weaknesses of this study are discussed, and suggestions are made for improving future climate change assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the future would have implications for river discharges in Bangladesh. In this article, possible changes in the magnitude, extent and depth of floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers in Bangladesh were assessed using a sequence of empirical models and the MIKE11-GIS hydrodynamic model. Climate change scenarios were constructed from the results of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) – CSIRO9, UKTR, GFDL and LLNL, which demonstrate a range of uncertainties. Changes in magnitude, depth and extent of flood discharge vary considerably between the GCMs. Future changes in the peak discharge of the Ganges River are expected to be higher than those for the Brahmaputra River. Peak discharge of the Meghna River may also increase considerably. As a result, significant changes in the spatial extent and depths of inundation in Bangladesh may occur. Faster changes in inundation are expected at low temperature increases than of higher temperature changes. Changes in land inundation categories may introduce substantial changes in rice agriculture and cropping patterns in Bangladesh. Reduction of increased flood hazard due to climate change requires strengthening of flood management policies and adaptation measures in Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]