Search

The frequency and intensity of extreme thermal stress conditions during summer are expected to increase due to climate change. This study examines sixteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that have been bias-adjusted using the quantile delta mapping method. These models provide Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for summer seasons between 1979 and 2010, which are regridded to a similar spatial grid as ERA5-HEAT (available at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution) using bilinear interpolation. The evaluation compares the summertime climatology and trends of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) mean UTCI with ERA5 data, focusing on a regional hotspot in northwest India (NWI). The Pattern Correlation Coefficient (between CMIP6 models and ERA5) values exceeding 0.9 were employed to derive the MME mean of UTCI, which was subsequently used to analyze the climatology and trends of UTCI in the CMIP6 models.The spatial climatological mean of CMIP6 MME UTCI demonstrates significant thermal stress over the NWI region, similar to ERA5. Both ERA5 and CMIP6 MME UTCI show a rising trend in thermal stress conditions over NWI. The temporal variation analysis reveals that NWI experiences higher thermal stress during the summer compared to the rest of India. The number of thermal stress days is also increasing in NWI and major Indian cities according to ERA5 and CMIP6 MME. Future climate projections under different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) indicate an increasing trend in thermal discomfort conditions throughout the twenty-first century. The projected rates of increase are approximately 0.09 °C per decade, 0.26 °C per decade, and 0.56 °C per decade, respectively. Assessing the near (2022–2059) and far (2060–2100) future, all three scenarios suggest a rise in intense heat stress days (UTCI > 38 °C) in NWI. Notably, the CMIP6 models predict that NWI could reach deadly levels of heat stress under the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. The findings underscore the urgency of addressing climate change and its potential impacts on human well-being and socio-economic sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensification of hydrologic cycle, and consequence rise of intense short-term precipitation, are considered as the manifestations of climate change. This may lead to an alteration in Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) relationship that may change other hydrological processes as well. The IDF relationship also serves as a crucial information for the design of any water infrastructure. This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes in IDF relationship involving hourly precipitation events between past and future climate at various return periods across India that spans over a wide range of climatology. Contrast between historical (1979–2014), using two reanalysis data, and future periods (immediate future: 2015–2039, near-future: 2040–2059 and far-future: 2060–2100) is explored along with its spatial (re-) distribution. The future simulations of precipitation are derived from three climate models, participating in 6th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), for three shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results show that almost entire Indian mainland will experience an increase (~41–44%) in the hourly precipitation intensity under the worst climate change scenario (SSP585) with a return period as low as 2 years (almost a regular incidence). Furthermore, even under a moderate climate change scenario (SSP245), almost entire Indian mainland (~82–99% of spatial extent) will be affected from a significant increase (on an average 19%) in the hourly precipitation intensity. It is true for higher return periods as well. Findings of the study are alarming for many water infrastructures. This study develops new set of IDF curves across India considering a changing climate that will be useful to set a revised design criteria for water infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's position on climate change negotiations is likely to have far reaching implications for the success of global climate cooperation. Since the beginning of negotiations, the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) remained the centerpiece of India's stand. The stand started to evolve at the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Copenhagen in 2009, when India accepted voluntary commitments to reduce emission intensity. Though India still swears by CBDR, status of the principle in the negotiations has become doubtful after the Durban Climate Conference in 2011 committed all parties to take emission targets. This paper traces major transition points in India's negotiating position over the years and provides a descriptive context of its climate-related concerns. It analyzes the interview responses of 15 top scientists, experts, and negotiators to build upon core areas of climate change issues in India, its future role, and position in negotiations. Interviewees, in general, were in favor of protecting the carbon space for the poor who had very low emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations are found to be very useful in deriving realistic climate change projection information. This study uses high-resolution dynamical downscaling framework (CCSM4-WRF) for India. To delineate the advantage of high resolution, we compared the results of 9-km resolution CCSM4-WRF simulations against the 50-km resolution RCM simulations under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) program. Quantitative estimations show that majority of CORDEX-SA models exhibit large dry bias (< − 4 mm/day) and low pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) over the Western Ghats (WG). Mean climatology of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall simulated by high-resolution CCSM4-WRF outperforms the CORDEX-SA RCMs with low negative biases (~ 1 mm/day) and high PCC (≥ 0.755). This skill of CCSM4-WRF provides better confidence in its future projection at local scale. CCSM4-WRF projects future intensification of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India and reduction over southern WG, which is consistent with recent observed trends, but none of the CORDEX-SA RCMs could simulate this rainfall reduction. For all-India rainfall, ensemble mean of CORDEX-SA models projects an increase by 1.3 ± 0.9 mm/day and CCSM4-WRF projects 0.67 mm/day. Projected changes in socioeconomic variables such as population and gross domestic product (GDP) exhibit future enhancement over most parts of India but with spatial heterogeneity. Shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios show pronounced future population growth over Indian coastal areas and large enhancement in productivity over urban areas. Therefore, climate change projection information of ISM rainfall, together with enhanced future population and GDP, is useful for taking necessary steps for adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results of a study of long term trends in the characteristics of the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon rainfall over western India during the last five decades in relation to global warming induced regional climate change. In contrast to recent climate change analyses and projections, no significant long-term trends have been observed in this study. Slow decadal scale variations observed are analysed in relation to Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Daily variations in rainfall anomaly show opposite characteristics during negative and positive phases of PDO. The above-normal rainfall (>25%) is found during the starting phase of monsoon in negative PDO. Over the last decade, i.e., during 2000-2007, the seasonal rainfall amount, as well as seasonal span of southwest monsoon over western India is indicative of a gradual increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-scale perspectives are seldom included in planned climate change adaptations, yet farmers' perceptions can provide useful insights into livelihood impacts from interactions between climatic and other stressors. This research aims to understand how climate variability and other stressors are impacting the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Azamgarh district, eastern Uttar Pradesh, India. Data from 84 smallholder farmers were collected using mixed qualitative and quantitative approaches, including interview and participatory methods, informed by multiple stressor and sustainable livelihood frameworks. Results revealed that farmers are increasingly facing problems caused by the reduced duration and number of rainy days, and erratic rainfall. Anomalies in seasonal cycles (longer summers, shorter winters) seem to have altered the local climate. Farmers reported that repeated drought impacts, even in years of moderate rainfall, are adversely affecting the rice crop, challenging the formal definition of drought. Climate variability, identified as the foremost stressor, often acts as a risk multiplier for ecological (e.g., soil sodicity), socio-economic (e.g., rising costs of cultivation) and political (e.g., mismatching policies and poor extension systems) stressors. In addition to climate stresses, resource-poor marginal groups in particular experienced higher risks resulting from changes in resource management regimes. This study provides an important cue to revisit the formal definitions of normal rainfall and drought, accommodating farmers' perceptions that evenly distributed rainfall, and not total rainfall is a key determinant of crop yields. Though India has developed adaptive measures for climate change and variability, integration of farmers' perceptions of climate and other stressors into such policies can improve the resilience of smallholder farmers, who have hitherto depended largely on autonomous adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spawning and well-being of fish in an ecosystem are closely linked to climatic cues, viz., temperature and rainfall. Reduced fitness can affect the reproductive performance and lead to skipped spawning. Benchmarking the threshold fitness required for a fish population to achieve readiness for spawning, and understanding how climatic parameters influence the fitness will aid in predicting the fate of its reproductive success in future climatic conditions. This study determined the threshold condition factor pre-spawning fitness (Kspawn50) at which 50% of the female Channa punctata population can be deemed fit for spawning. The optimal climate within which pre-spawning fitness is attained by this species under Indian climatic conditions was also identified. The study was conducted from June 2015 to September 2016, covering two spawning seasons (June–August) in a Gangetic floodplain wetland of West Bengal, India. The non-parametric Kaplan–Meier method (survival fit) was used for estimation of pre-spawning fitness. "Ready to spawn" females were classified based on binary coding of the gonadal maturity stages. The thermal and precipitation range within which spawning fitness is achieved was identified by using the locally weighted smoothing technique. Female C. punctata pre-spawning fitness (Kspawn50) ranged from 1.26 to 1.39 with an estimated median of 1.29 units. Temperatures between 29 and 32 °C and rainfall above 100 mm were conducive to attaining the requisite pre-spawning fitness in C. punctata. This is the first study benchmarking the pre-spawning fitness and optimal climate for C. punctata. Understanding spawning requirements can inform the climate change–induced impacts on reproductive plasticity and evolutionary adaptations of snakeheads in the Ganga river basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature-depth profiles of boreholes of a region can be analysed to estimate the past variations in climate. Perturbations over the surface ground temperature are imparted deep into the Earth's subsurface. Western Ghats regions of India are considered to be one of the most ecologically rich regions and also play a crucial role in deciding the climatological characteristics of the country. This study quantifies the possible climate warming or cooling in the past century in the Western Ghats using temperature-depth profiles of five boreholes in a depth range of 140–198 m located in Koyna region (17.38° N, 73.74° E) of Maharashtra state, India. The analysis shows that there has been a significant warming of 0.8 ± 0.2 °C over the past 100 years in the region. The inferred warming is comparable with the trends of meteorological records of the area which yields an increasing trend of 0.56 °C in the surface air temperature (SAT). For further validation of results, a combined study of borehole temperature profiles and surface air temperature (SAT) profiles was done which showed that the period was warmer than the earlier long-term temperature records of the region by 0.8 °C. This pre-observational mean (POM) value seems to be consistent with previously studied POMs over India. This study provides a 'true estimate' of climate change and can be used as a robust technique to reconstruct the past climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last millennium climate reconstructions are complex and limit our understanding of the mechanisms behind environmental and climate variability. We present multi-proxy centennial-scale records from the Cherai, southwest India. The last 2000 cal yr AD record suggests a complex environmental condition that prevailed at the depositional site augmenting the role of natural as well as anthropogenic agents. Increased elemental variations and indices values indicate stronger weathering, presumably wetter conditions and intense precipitation. Provenance studies suggest diverse sources and the main composition fall close to the Charnockite and Gneissic composition. Multi-proxy data suggests that a shift towards wetter climatic conditions, which occurred from 910 to 1230 cal yr AD. The core also records a shift towards the drier conditions that started around 1230 cal yr AD with a loss in vegetation diversity. The pollution load index values suggest that the overall study area falls in moderate contamination levels, which are also substantiated with the diatom data indicating human influence in the natural habitat during the deposition time. The present study reveals that the enhanced Cd and As concentration is due to strong anthropogenic influence. We compared the multi-proxy record with other continental and marine palaeoclimatic records to explore global and/or regional trends in climate variability during the last 2000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is rising interest among research and development practitioners to arrive at impact driven solutions in the field of gender and climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation interventions can be better targeted by being linked with type of climatic risks experienced by women farmers, their social profile and their needs based on the role they play in agriculture. This study presents a methodology to identify hotspots where climate change adaptation and gender based interventions could be prioritized. The methodology is illustrated for India. The results suggest 36 hotspots across 10 states in India, where large number of women farmers are impacted by high levels of drought probability, excess rainfall and heat wave. The target population in these hotspots comprise 14.4% of the total women farmers in the country. A socioeconomic characterization of the hotspot population highlights barriers, such as labor, credit and market access for female cultivators and lower wage rates for female laborers in these hotspots. Based on the constraints as well as the climatic risks faced by these women in the hotspots, the potential of climate-smart agriculture technologies and practices are emphasized. Additionally, a comparison of current research being done in the field with the results of the study highlights the potential to learn from current efforts for efficient scalability of gender and climate change adaptation interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant invasion is highly responsive to rising temperature, altered precipitation and various anthropogenic disturbances. Therefore, climate anomalies might provide opportunities to identify the relationship of past climate in deriving the distribution of invasive species and to detect their probable future distribution. In this work, we studied the correlation of climate anomaly i.e. temperature and precipitation with an indicative map of plant invasive species (1° grid) of India. The indicative map was generated through the plant data available from the project 'Biodiversity Characterization at Landscape Level'. Climate anomaly was calculated and represented by average temperature and precipitation using 'Climate Research Unit' data for the period of 1901 to 2000. A comparison of local geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and a global ordinary least square regression (OLS) model was carried out for statistical analysis to depict the correlation at 1° spatial grids. Overall, 20,501 records with a total of 9112 unique plots and 161 unique invasive species were recorded in the database that shows a maximum of 15 invasive species in a 0.04 ha nested quadrat. Cumulative analysis showed a maximum of 53 invasive species at 1° grid. Individually, GWR could reveal a significant correlation with invasive species distribution for temperature anomaly (r2 = 0.73, AIC= 2206) and precipitation anomaly (r2 = 0.74, AIC= 2221), while OLS model did not offer a good correlation (r2 < 0.001, AIC > 2400) compared to GWR. Combination of temperature and precipitation anomaly (shared model) showed an improved spatial correlation (r2 > 0.75) using GWR. Variation partitioning revealed the dominant influence (> 0.40 of variation) of temperature anomaly over Deccan Peninsula, Himalaya and North East zone. Influence of precipitation anomaly was more prominent over arid and semi-arid zone explaining > 0.35 of variation. Results revealed the strength of GWR to see the interaction of invasive plant species w.r.t. climate anomalies that explain the influence of spatial variation due to heterogeneity at varying neighbour distances. The significant correlation of invasive species with both the anomalies revealed the affinity of invasive species towards warmer, drier and wet places. This gives an indication that the distribution of invasive species could be triggered by climate anomaly. The use of other predictor variables (i.e. edaphic and anthropogenic) could be an inclusive input in a future perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 50 km horizontal resolution. The major updates in RegCM4.3 in comparison to the older version RegCM4.2 are the inclusion of measured solar irradiance in place of hardcoded solar constant and additional layers in the stratosphere. The analysis shows that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, moisture flux and surface net downward shortwave flux are better represented in RegCM4.3 than that in the RegCM4.2 simulations. Excessive moisture flux in the RegCM4.2 simulation over the northern Arabian Sea and Peninsular India resulted in an overestimation of rainfall over the Western Ghats, Peninsular region as a result of which the all India rainfall has been overestimated. RegCM4.3 has performed well over India as a whole as well as its four rainfall homogenous zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and north central Indian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, analysis of the long term climatology, variability and trends in the daily rainfall events of ≥5 mm [or daily rainfall (DR) events] during the southwest monsoon season (June-September) over four regions of India; south central India (SCI), north central India (NCI), northeast India (NEI) and west coast (WC) have been presented. For this purpose, a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set covering 110 years (1901-2010) over the Indian main land has been used. The association of monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) with the DR events of various intensities has also been examined. Major portion of the rainfall over these regions during the season was received in the form of medium rainfall (≥5-100 mm) or moderate rainfall (MR) events. The mean seasonal cycle of the daily frequency of heavy rainfall (HR) (≥100-150 mm) or HR events and very heavy rainfall (VHR) (≥150 mm) or VHR events over each of the four regions showed peak at different parts of the season. The peak in the mean daily HR and VHR events occurred during middle of July to middle of August over SCI, during late part of June to early part of July over NCI, during middle of June to early July over NEI, and during late June to middle July over WC. Significant long term trends in the frequency and intensity of the DR events were observed in all the four geographical regions. Whereas the intensity of the DR events over all the four regions showed significant positive trends during the second half and the total period, the signs and magnitude of the long term trends in the frequency of the various categories of DR events during the total period and its two halves differed from the region to the region. The trend analysis revealed increased disaster potential for instant flooding over SCI and NCI during the recent years due to significant increasing trends in the frequency (areal coverage) and intensity of the HR and VHR events during the recent half of the data period. However, there is increased disaster potential over NEI and WC due to the increasing trends in the intensity of the rainfall events. There is strong association between the LPS days and the DR events in both the spatial and temporal scales. In all the four regions, the contributions to the total MR events by the LPS days were nearly equal. On the other hand, there was relatively large regional difference in the number of combined HR and VHR events associated with LPS days particularly that associated with monsoon depression (LPS stronger than monsoon depression) days. The possible reasons for the same have also been discussed. The increasing trend in the monsoon low (low pressure) days post 1970s is the primary reason for the observed significant increasing trends in the HR and VHR events over SCI and NCI and decreasing trend in HR events over NEI during the recent half (1956-2010). This is in spite of the decreasing trend in the MD days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most used temperature and salinity climatology for the world ocean, including the Indian Ocean, is the World Ocean Atlas (WOA) (Antonov et al 2006, 2010; Locarnini et al 2006, 2010) because of the vast amount of data used in its preparation. The WOA climatology does not, however, include all the available hydrographic data from the Indian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), leading to the potential for improvement if the data from this region are included to prepare a new climatology. We use all the data that went into the preparation of the WOA ( Antonov et al 2010; Locarnini et al 2010), but add considerable data from Indian sources, to prepare new annual, seasonal, and monthly climatologies of temperature and salinity for the Indian Ocean. The addition of data improves the climatology considerably in the Indian EEZ, the differences between the new North Indian Ocean Atlas (NIOA) and WOA being most significant in the Bay of Bengal, where the patchiness seen in WOA, an artifact of the sparsity of data, was eliminated in NIOA. The significance of the new climatology is that it presents a more stable climatological value for the temperature and salinity fields in the Indian EEZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a comprehensive assessment of the present and expected future pulse of the Indian monsoon climate based on observational and global climate model projections. The analysis supports the view that seasonal Indian monsoon rains in the latter half of the 21th century may not be materially different in abundance to that experienced today although their intensity and duration of wet and dry spells may change appreciably. Such an assessment comes with considerable uncertainty. With regard to temperature, however, we find that the Indian temperatures during the late 21st Century will very likely exceed the highest values experienced in the 130-year instrumental record of Indian data. This assessment comes with higher confidence than for rainfall because of the large spatial scale driving the thermal response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing. We also find that monsoon climate changes, especially temperature, could heighten human and crop mortality posing a socio-economic threat to the Indian subcontinent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study comprises (1) an analysis of recent climate trends at two sites in north-west India (Ludhiana in Punjab and Delhi) and (2) an impact and risk assessment for wheat yields associated with climatic variability. North-west Indian agriculture is dominated by rice-wheat rotation in which the wheat season (‘rabi’, November to March) is characterized by predominantly dry conditions—superimposed by very high inter-annual variability of rainfall (17 to 260 mm in Ludhiana and <1 to 155 mm in Delhi). While rainfall remained without discernable trend over the last three decades, minimum and average temperatures showed increasing trends of 0.06 and 0.03°C year − 1, respectively, at Ludhiana. The site in (metropolitan) Delhi was apparently influenced by city-effects, which was noticeable from the decrease in solar radiation of 0.09 MJ m − 2 day − 1 year − 1. The CERES-wheat model was used to calculate yields of rainfed wheat that were at both locations highly correlated with seasonal rainfall. An assessment framework was developed to quantify yield impacts due to rainfall variability in three steps: (1) data from different years were aggregated into four classes, i.e., years with scarce, low, moderate, and high rainfall, (2) yield records of each rainfall class were ranked according to yield to facilitate (3) a comparison of yields with identical rank, i.e. among the best yield of each class, the second-best, etc. The class with moderate rainfall was taken as baseline yield to compute yield impacts of other rainfall scenarios. Years with scarce rainfall resulted in only 34% (Ludhiana) and 35% (Delhi) of the baseline yield. The yields in years with low rainfall accounted for 61% (Delhi) and 49% (Ludhiana) of the baseline yields. In Ludhiana, high rainfall years resulted in 200% yield as compared to the baseline yield, whereas they reached only 105% in Delhi. Low-intensity (1× and 3×) irrigation decreased the relative yield losses, but entailed a higher vulnerability in terms of absolute yield losses. Only high-intensity (4×) irrigation buffered wheat yields against adverse rainfall years. Early sowing was beneficial for wheat yields under all rainfall scenarios. The framework could be a valuable decision-support tool at the farm level where seasonal rainfall variability is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing evidence that the climate change do has implications for drought vulnerable India with studies projecting future possible reductions in monsoon related rainfall in the country. The existing drought risk mitigation and response mechanisms were looked into and gaps were identified by drawing lessons from previous disasters and response mechanisms. In absence of reliable climate predictions at the scales that make them useful for policy level planning, the emphasis was on identifying no-regret adaptation options those would reduce current vulnerabilities while main streaming the adaptation in the long run. The most notable climate change implications for the drought vulnerable India are the enhanced preparedness with due emphasis to the community based preparedness planning, reviewing the existing monsoon and drought prediction methodologies,and establishing drought monitoring and early warning systems in association with a matching preparedness at the input level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of climate changes in India and search for robust evidences are issues of concern specially when it is known that poor people are very vulnerable to climate changes. Due to the vast size of India and its complex geography, climate in this part of the globe has large spatial and temporal variations. Important weather events affecting India are floods and droughts, monsoon depressions and cyclones, heat waves, cold waves, prolonged fog and snowfall. Results of this comprehensive study based on observed data and model reanalyzed fields indicate that in the last century, the atmospheric surface temperature in India has enhanced by about 1 and 1.1°C during winter and post-monsoon months respectively. Also decrease in the minimum temperature during summer monsoon and its increase during post-monsoon months have created a large difference of about 0.8°C in the seasonal temperature anomalies which may bring about seasonal asymmetry and hence changes in atmospheric circulation. Opposite phases of increase and decrease in the minimum temperatures in the southern and northern regions of India respectively have been noticed in the interannual variability. In north India, the minimum temperature shows sharp decrease of its magnitude between 1955 and 1972 and then sharp increase till date. But in south India, the minimum temperature has a steady increase. The sea surface temperatures (SST) of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal also show increasing trend. Observations indicate occurrence of more extreme temperature events in the east coast of India in the recent past. During summer monsoon months, there is a decreasing (increasing) trend in the frequency of depressions (low pressure areas). In the last century the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic storms shows increasing trend in the month of November. In addition there is increase in the number of severe cyclonic storms crossing Indian Coast. Analysis of rainfall amount during different seasons indicate decreasing tendency in the summer monsoon rainfall over Indian landmass and increasing trend in the rainfall during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]