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The purpose of the present paper is to examine a selection of macro- and micro-linguistic features (at text and sentence/word level respectively) of the South-African Green Paper 'National Climate Change Response' from 2010. Our overarching assumption is that the Green Paper needs to handle competing interests, beliefs and voices in a narrative structure favouring specific courses of action. How does the government portray the complex natural and societal phenomenon of climate change, and how does it take into account the many and often competing national and international views and interests which come into play? Our hypothesis is that the Green Paper constructs a narrative and that it relates to a number of voices other than that of the authors, through linguistic markers of polyphony, such as negation, sentence connectives, adverbs and reported speech. Thus we propose a narrative and polyphonic analysis of the Green Paper, at the level of the text as a whole (macro-level) but also with attention to linguistic constructions of polyphony or 'multi-voicedness' (micro-level). We find that the narrative-polyphonic properties of the Green Paper contribute to a strategy for building consensus on climate change policy. The South African government assumes the role of main hero in its own climate change 'story', and there are subtle forms of interaction with different and typically non-identified voices, such as concessive constructions and presuppositions. These results support our overarching interpretation of the whole document as striving to impose a South African consensus on the issue of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Article 7 of the Paris Agreement recognizes that adaptation is a 'global challenge faced by all with local, regional and international dimensions.' It further establishes the 'global goal on adaptation focusing on enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development.' However, the lack of international cooperation between the global north and global south challenge the formulation and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. This paper brings in the concept of global public goods (GPGs) to the lexicon of climate adaptation and highlights that adverse impacts of climate change such as climate-induced global migration are global public bad. Hence, the measures taken to respond to such impacts, which consequently enhance the resilience of affected countries, make them more adaptive to those adverse impacts, and deliver common values of universal character, should be construed as the global public good. The paper argues that that the idea of GPGs with its universality offers a normative and practical foundation for understanding, addressing, and strengthening the international community's climate adaptation actions and cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contributions to the climate governance literature have highlighted the importance of recognizing its new polycentric nature, which includes roles for non-state and subnational actors in climate change mitigation and in leadership for climate action. Yet, the literature is missing a normative cartography—that is, a mapping of the distribution of moral duties in the real world—which is tailored to a context of polycentric governance. This paper answers the question: how can moral duties be distributed in a context of polycentric climate governance such as to diminish the problem of non-compliance? This implies the following question: do duties change in situations of non-compliance in a context of polycentric governance, and if so how? Acknowledging polycentric governance is the key to an effective distribution of moral duties, as it allows for a more accurate mapping of non-state and subnational actors' duties in leading the charge against climate change. Correspondingly, a normative cartography fitted to this context will be instrumental in showing how morally informed climate governance can diminish the problem of non-compliance. This paper focusses on the distribution of moral duties in a context of polycentric governance as a contributing factor to inducing agents to act according to the collective goal. It argues that a more fine-grained distribution of climate duties, tailored to polycentric climate governance, contributes to addressing the problem of non-compliance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and environmental hazards affect the entire world, but their interactions with—and consequences on—human migration are unevenly distributed geographically. Research on climate and migration have their own geographies which do not necessarily coincide. This paper critically confronts these two geographies by presenting the first detailed mapping of research in the field of environmentally induced migration. After a brief review of the geography of research on climate change, the paper presents an overview of nearly 50 years of case studies on the basis of CliMig, a bibliographic database of 1193 scientific papers and books on climate/environmental change and migration, among them 463 empirical case studies. We analyze the locations of these case studies, the academic affiliations of their researchers, and the origin of their funding. Mapping the locations of case studies worldwide points toward blind spots in the research and identifies “overstudied” areas. We describe the methodologies used in the studies and present a typology of environmental hazards. Our results show that research on environmental migration is mainly done in countries of the Global South, whereas climate science research in general is focused on countries of the Global North. We contend that the peculiar geography of environmental migration cannot be explained solely by the uneven vulnerability of southern populations to the environment. It must also be understood through the lens of post-colonial and securitization studies as the result of a framing of “environmental refugees” (and refugees in general) as an intrinsically “southern problem” and as a security risk for the North. This paper is an original contribution to the literature on the North-South divide in scientific research and will help to outline future directions of investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

de Freitas et al. (2015) (henceforth dFDB) report a trend of 0.28 °C per century over the period 1909-2009 for New Zealand land surface temperatures, from their reanalysis of a composite of seven long-term records. This is much lower than the warming trend of about 0.9 °C per century reported previously by other researchers and much smaller than trends estimated from independent sea surface temperature data from the surrounding region. We show these differences result primarily from the way inhomogeneities in temperature time series at individual stations due to site or instrument changes are identified and adjusted for in the dFDB paper. The adjustments reported in that paper are based on a method designed by one of us (Salinger), but use only a short (1-2-year) overlap period with comparison stations and consider only inhomogeneities in monthly mean (rather than monthly maximum and minimum) temperatures. This leads to underestimates of the statistical significance of individual temperature discontinuities and hence rejection of many valid adjustments. Since there was a systematic tendency for the seven-station sites to be relocated to colder locations as the early half of the twentieth century progressed, this rejection of valid adjustments produces an artificially low rate of warming. We therefore disagree with the trend calculations in the dFDB paper and consider there is no reason to reject the previous estimates of around 0.9 °C warming per century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil and other Earth scientists who conduct research on C management found themselves, in the past decade within a swirl of efforts concerning climate mitigation, economic and business investments in carbon markets, and political aspirations. All these external pressures are issues with which soil science is largely unfamiliar. As a result, science has responded without deeply considering the landscape in which it finds itself, and some of the unanticipated challenges these issues present. Here, we suggest soil C scientists now consider and respond to these issues. The first order challenge is to transition from the concept of technical carbon sequestration potentials, made in the absence of social and policy contexts, to societally achievable sequestration estimates based on highly transdisciplinary teams of natural and social sciences and scientists. To achieve this will requires re-thinking national science funding programs, in which climate-relevant social science is under-funded. In addition, the science of soil C itself is in need of a priority shift. Presently, publications in soil C sequestration out-strip papers on soil feedbacks to climate change, and on how to adapt soil to climate change: two areas of research which may well be more societal important in the next few decades than sequestering C. Most seriously, given the urgent nature of our collective societal climate problem, our profession must not find itself a decade from now continuing the now 20-year-old narrative that soil C can potentially mitigate climate change and compensate for greenhouse gas emissions. We must consider the possibility that other options and expenditures of resources are more viable, and we must reframe our science's objectives to expand into the many other urgent needs that confront humanity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topical issue includes 22 papers on different aspects of meteorology and climatology of the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The papers are grouped into three categories, based on scale analysis of processes, and whether the study is dominantly related to the atmospheric or oceanic phenomenon. The category “Storms, Extremes and Mesoscale Processes” encompasses seven papers, ranging from observation and modelling data analysis of extreme atmospheric (severe winds, hailstorms, waterspout, cyclones) and oceanic (meteotsunamis, surface waves) events, occurring locally, but being connected to wider patterns and processes. The six papers in category “Atmospheric Climate, Variability and Climate Change” contain analyses of long-term observations and climate projection outputs, but also assess atmosphere-ocean-land interactions and cycles, that are important in a climate perspective. The category “Ocean Climate and Variability” includes nine papers, which map ocean processes (sea level variability, circulation, sea surface temperatures, vertical thermal structure, water masses and dense water formation) on a climate timescale, both, in the Mediterranean and Black Sea sub-basins, or taking them as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper addresses the challenging question of “how to” design and implement co-production of knowledge in climate science and other environmental and agricultural sciences. Based on a grounded theory review of nine (9) published case studies of transdisciplinary and collaborative research projects, the paper offers a set of common themes regarding specific components and processes for the design, implementation, and achievement of co-production of knowledge work, which represent the “Modus Operandi” of knowledge co-production. The analysis focuses on practical methodological guidance based on lessons from how different research teams have approached the challenges of complex collaborative research. We begin by identifying broad factors or actions that inhibit or facilitate the process, then highlight specific practices associated with co-production of knowledge and necessary competencies for undertaking co-production. We provide insights on issues such as the integration of social and professional cultures, gender and social equity, and power dynamics, and illustrate the different ways in which researchers have addressed these issues. By exploring the specific practices involved in knowledge co-production, this paper provides guidance to researchers on how to navigate different possibilities of the process of conducting transdisciplinary and co-production of knowledge research projects that best fit their research context, stakeholder needs, and research team capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a thorough analysis of the scientific production in climate change and adaptation in Brazil. We conducted a bibliometric and bibliographic review to reveal and discuss how climate change research has been carried out. We compared a broader climate change research dataset with a more specific climate adaptation research dataset, to understand the main differences and convergence points, and how science conducted from a mitigation and adaptation perspective demonstrates potential to confront the climate change challenges and drivers in Brazil. Four main clusters of investigation within climate change were detected: (1) impacts on forest and plant development, (2) land use and ecology, (3) adaptation/governance, and (4) climate/atmospheric studies. Only about 5% of the total studies on climate change address adaptation, for which three main clusters of research were identified: (1) adaptation actions and policies; (2) urban environment, vulnerability, and health and (3) food and coastal impacts. Although there are strong research trends in climate change for the Amazon Forest, there was less evidence of studies concerning climate adaptation for this and other Brazilian biomes, smaller cities, rural and traditional communities, and poorer regions. Our results shed a light on the more commonly chosen research topics, their strongest points and potential gaps and trends. This can contribute to the scientific communication and implementation of climate actions in Brazil, and a better understanding of the climate science knowledge from the perspective of a middle-income country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost all climate change studies of plants and animals adopt an 'equilibrium assumption' that analyses of natural distributions provide reliable estimates of species climatic requirements. Yet commercial forestry trials around the world have shown that many tree species can grow successfully under climatic conditions somewhat different from those of their natural distributions. Under climate change it is reasonable to assume that a long-lived tree species, already well-established at particular sites, may be able to display some of the climatic adaptability shown in trials outside its natural distribution. The purpose of this paper is to outline how some species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) studies have estimated species climatic requirements beyond those shown by conventional analyses of just their natural distributions, and to show how recent developments are facilitating these analyses. Some of the earliest SDM studies of trees demonstrated the desirability of assessing species climatic requirements using data from outside, as well as within, their natural distributions. In recent years, with the advent of large biodiversity databases and some revised SDM analysis methods, there has been a revival of interest in measuring species climatic requirements using data from beyond their realized niches. It is recommended that at least for tree species, natural distribution data, and where possible results from plantings beyond natural distributions, should be analysed in climate change studies. When this is not possible, some alternative methods of estimating species climatic requirements are identified and some of their advantages and disadvantages are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a global trend away from delivering 'climate information' towards producing 'climate services' for decision-makers. The rationale for this shift is said to be the demand for timely and actionable climate knowledge, whilst the means of its delivery involves a shift from public good to more privatised forms of climate science. This paper identifies important implications of this shift to climate services by examining the role of consultants, drawing on an in-depth study of adaptation consultants in Australia. The role of consultants is instructive, not just because these private sector experts are engaged in climate services, but also because publicly funded climate science agencies are increasingly encouraged to behave as consulting firms do. Four imperatives of knowledge businesses—to be client-focussed, solutions-oriented, resource-efficient and self-replicating—are described. The paper argues that an emphasis on climate services shifts the incentives for climate science away from the public interest towards the ongoing pursuit of profit. There is a subsequent diversion of effort away from publicly accessible and transparent climate information to private knowledge for discrete clients. Climate services also emphasise knowledge for climate solutions as opposed to the politically charged identification of climate risks. The paper concludes with a warning that the trend towards climate services undermines the knowledge required for societies to adequately respond to the scale, speed and severity of climate change. At the heart of this issue is a climate services paradox: how to achieve customisation without exclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses ethical issues surrounding Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the economic effects of climate change, and how climate economists acting as policy advisors ought to represent the uncertain possibility of catastrophe. Some climate economists, especially Martin Weitzman, have argued for a precautionary approach where avoiding catastrophe should structure climate economists' welfare analysis. This paper details ethical arguments that justify this approach, showing how Weitzman's "fat tail" probabilities of climate catastrophe pose ethical problems for widely used IAMs. The main claim is that economists who ignore or downplay catastrophic risks in their representations of uncertainty likely fall afoul of ethical constraints on scientists acting as policy advisors. Such scientists have duties to honestly articulate uncertainties and manage (some) inductive risks, or the risks of being wrong in different ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall in the Moist Tropical Caribbean Region (MTCR) in Costa Rica occurs practically throughout the year, with the quarters June–August (JJA) and December–February (DJF) concentrating over 70% of annual rainfall. Contrarily, in March–April and September–October, it rains below 100 mm per month. This seasonal rainfall behavior makes the region ideal for producing bananas (Musa spp.) and pineapple (Ananas comosus) for export (10% and 8% of total exports in 2021, respectively). A national-scale study determined that agriculture in the MTCR is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate changes. However, the climate in this region has been poorly studied so far. This research analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of annual, monthly, and seasonal (DJF, JJA, SO) rainfall in the MTCR and how they change in the study period based on quality-checked series of daily rainfall from 28 weather stations in two periods: 1985–2009 and 1997–2019. The results show that rainfall regimes in the region are variable in space and throughout the year, with peaks occurring close to the mountain range and minimum values close to the coast. Trends were statistically significant in the period 1985–2009 with a predominance of significant positive trends in DJF and significant negative trends in SO. No significant trends (positive or negative) were observed in the period 1997–2019. JJA rainfall has uneven regional distribution and presents a positive and significant trend in the mountain region. This paper contributes to filling the knowledge gap in rainfall seasonality, variability, and trends in a region where banana and pineapple commercial plantations are fundamental to the country's economy thus providing information to decision-making in the agri-food sector to reduce the negative impacts of changing rainfall regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the results of climate change science activities that have been promoted as part of crisis management for climate change to date and draws lessons from them to further strengthen responses to climate stabilization and suggests issues that the scientific community should address going forward. The global climate is a complex physical phenomenon, and it takes time to elucidate its mechanisms. In addition, due to its nature as a global public good with no alternatives, it cannot be controlled without the concerted consensus and action of all nations. Already, the climate management system on a global scale is lagging behind and has not caught up with the actual progress of climate change, and there are concerns that the "climate crisis" will undermine human sustainability. The science of climate change, which is the vanguard of sustainability science, is tackling this unprecedented challenge for humanity by learning by doing and has almost finished collecting nature-side knowledge for stabilizing climate. The next big challenge is how to motivate human society to achieve a carbon-neutral world. Given the limited time available, calls to action on the ground by stakeholders and citizens to reduce greenhouse gases, in parallel with the implementation of top-down policies, will be crucial. It is hoped that crisis management will be strengthened through the consolidation of human knowledge that crosses and integrates various fields. When the science of climate change succeeds in stabilizing the climate, it will serve as a good reference for subsequent sustainability science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate clubs have been suggested as a gateway to substantial reductions in global emissions. The club approach begins with a small number of enthusiastic countries. This paper asks under what conditions such clubs are likely to evolve into effective cooperation through side-payments to new members. The question is addressed through a range of formal thought experiments using numerical simulations. The model is calibrated using empirical data on countries' emissions, GDP, populations, and vulnerabilities. It is simple and stylized, but allows for complex and dynamic interactions between actors. Basic equity considerations can be accommodated. The results indicate that side-payments' theoretical potential for facilitating effective clubs is large. One or two large emitters can initiate a club that grows to cover a substantial share of global emissions if the global benefit-cost ratio for mitigation is around 3 or larger. The size of stable clubs is larger if new members contribute to making side-payments, and somewhat lower if equity considerations constrain the set of possible transfers. Side-payments' effect is enabled by the large asymmetries between countries. Total side-payment flows range from tens to hundreds of billions of US dollars annually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we extend the work of Goes, Tuana, and Keller (Climatic Change ; GTK) by reexamining the economic benefit, of aerosol geoengineering. GTK found that a complete substitution of geoengineering for CO abatement fails a cost-benefit test over a wide range of scenarios regarding (i) the probability that such a program would be aborted and (ii) the economic damages caused by geoengineering itself. In this paper, we reframe the conditions under which GTK assumed geoengineering would/could be used. In so doing, we demonstrate that geoengineering may pass a cost-benefit test over a wide range of scenarios originally considered by GTK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on using climate information has often focused on the interaction between users and producers and the technical fit of information for real decision-making. However, due to resource and capacity constraints within both user and producer communities, this approach will not always be feasible or indeed necessary depending on the decisions at hand. These contexts have been relatively under-explored by scholars, and this paper provides an original empirical contribution using three case studies of sub-national governments in India, Kenya and Uganda. In the paper, we analyse how social learning supports changing the usability of climate information and the role of intermediary organisations in these processes. Firstly, the paper shows that intermediaries often choose to build the commitment to project aims rather than using climate information as an entry point to working on climate change, and this allows them to instigate challenging learning processes. Secondly, there are barriers to iterative processes and critical reflection with government stakeholders but these processes can gain traction when built into institutional practices such as formal M&E processes. Lastly, social learning can broaden the framing of climate change from a single sector issue to a multi-sectoral one. We conclude by arguing that bringing together scholarship on social learning with that on the usability of climate information can deepen understanding of the dynamic context in which the information becomes usable. The evidence from the case studies shows that learning processes can alter this context across scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In climate-economic modelling, agent-based models are still an exception. Although numerous authors have discussed the usefulness of the approach, only a few models exist. The paper proposes an update to a multi-agent climate-economic model, namely the “battle of perspectives” (Janssen, 1996; Janssen and de Vries 1998). The approach of the paper is twofold. First, the reimplementation of the model follows the “model to model” concept. Supporters of the approach argue that replication is a useful way to check a model’s accuracy and robustness. Second, updating a model with current data and new scientific evidence is a robustness check in itself. The long-term validity and usefulness of a model depends on the variability of the data on which it is based, as well as on the model’s sensitivity to data changes. By offering this update, the paper contributes to the development of agent-based models in climate-economics. Acknowledging evolutionary processes in climate-policy represents a useful complement to intertemporal cost-benefit analyses, the latter of which derive optimal protection paths but are not able to explain why people do not follow them. Since the replication and update succeeded, the paper recommends using the model as a basis for further analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper distinguishes between bridging and bonding social capital to assess their roles for individual farmers’ adaptation strategies taken through technology adoption. Based on primary data collected in Langcang River (LCR) basin area in southwestern China, the paper finds: (1) adaptation measures have been widely taken by surveyed households, but non-infrastructure-based measures are more prevalent than infrastructure-based measures and (2) surveyed households have strong social capital while having weak bridging social capital. Their bonding social capital has significantly positive relationship with their adaptation decisions, but bridging social capital does not have such statistically significant relationship. It recommends that the governments contemplate carefully how to help the poor to get a good combination of bonding and bridging social capital when designing policies to help the rural poor to improve their long-term adaptive capacity and achieve sustainable rural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+ 1 to + 5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) is a collaborative effort to provide professionals, decision makers, and the public with information about how climate change affects state and local interests throughout Indiana, USA. This assessment effort has three interrelated goals: (1) analyze and document the best available climate change impacts research, (2) develop and maintain a network of stakeholders and experts, and (3) start a dialog about climate change throughout Indiana. The project adopted a process that prioritized stakeholder engagement, re-envisioned traditional dissemination approaches, and that had limited state government involvement, setting the IN CCIA apart from most other state climate assessments (SCAs) in the USA. This overview describes the motivations, principles, and processes that guided the IN CCIA development, explores how Indiana's approach compares with those of other SCAs, and briefly summarizes the papers presented in this special issue. As interest in SCAs grows in non-coastal and politically conservative locations, the IN CCIA serves as one example of how a bottom-up assessment with limited funding can deliver credible climate science to diverse stakeholder groups in the absence of state-level mandates or direction and attract public attention over an extended period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is part of the Special Issue on "Everyday Climate Cultures: Understanding the cultural politics of climate change" edited by Goodman, Doyle and Farrell As we write this editorial introduction, the UK is slowly emerging from its period of self-imposed lockdown restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and facing the virus's lasting impacts upon society at every scale imaginable. Taking a longitudinal approach to the study of climate imagery, Saffron O'Neill (2020) explores how UK and US newspapers visually depict climate change during the period 2001-2009, an important decade for the expansion and consolidation of climate change science, activism and engagement. Through online surveys and interviews, US climate scholars were asked about their everyday climate advocacy work beyond their professional commitments, defined here by evidence-based climate science rather than particular policy outcomes. [Extracted from the article]

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Not only is the climate changing, but so is global climate governance. Climate policy initiatives have proliferated within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) regime in a polycentric pattern. Nevertheless, promised action under the Paris Agreement (PA) is far from being sufficient to achieve its targets of keeping global warming below 2 °C. A special research focus has emerged on international 'climate clubs', referring to a smaller group's greater ability to make progress in international climate policy compared to large global forums. Against this background, our paper reflects on the club functions of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), a transnational partnership that aims at slowing the rate of near-term global warming through the reduction of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). How does the CCAC contribute to global climate governance and how does this relate to existing structures, such as the UNFCCC process and the PA? Researchers have generally found that climate clubs can raise ambition, produce emissions reductions, and/or enhance cooperation, while generating additional benefits for its members. However, their specific governance contribution remains rather opaque, for example, how emissions reductions are achieved. There is a lack of analytical application, knowledge of the political practice and of in-depth case studies of the clubs concept. This paper contributes to filling this gap by applying central aspects of clubs research, namely membership and size, public goods, and the provision of additional benefits as an analytical framework in one in-depth case study of a governance initiative that has not yet been the subject of academic scrutiny: the CCAC. The results are based on expert interviews and the analysis of strategic and academic documents. Overall, this research finds that the CCAC's largest contribution to global climate governance lies in preparing SLCP emissions reductions through raising awareness, orchestrating different actors and actions related to SLCPs, and establishing a large technical cooperation network. To some degree it also directly implements SLCP reduction projects. Ultimately, it complements the UNFCCC and especially the Paris Agreement. Members are part of the CCAC because its benefits go beyond climate change mitigation. Its large transnational membership constellation both supports and challenges its governance contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global action being outpaced by climate change impacts, communities in climate-vulnerable countries are at increased risk of incurring climate-induced losses and damages. In the last few years, disasters from extreme weather events such as typhoons have increased and have breached records, with typhoon Haiyan being the strongest ever typhoon to make landfall. Such an event solicited global compassion and altruism where Canada and the USA, apart from doling out traditional humanitarian aid, also offered immigration relief opportunities to typhoon Haiyan victims who have familial connections to their residents. Drawing from these immigration relief interventions, this paper uses a sociopolitical approach in proposing a climate humanitarian visa that would be offered to climate change victims on the basis of transnational family networks and skilled labor. Noting that several countries such as in Europe have demographic deficits and labor shortages, such a scheme would benefit both climate change victims and receiving countries. To counter the risk of selective compassion against economically trapped populations, potential receiving countries could provide skills upgrading geared toward addressing their labor shortages through their existing development programs. While migration is only one strategy in a spectrum of responses to climate change impacts, a climate humanitarian visa could provide climate change victims a legal choice for mobility while invoking altruism, hospitality, and compassion from potential receiving countries, whether or not they historically cause climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though a small fraction of the US citizenry, agricultural producers are directly responsible for the stewardship of almost half of the country's land. This group is therefore an especially important one to understand from the standpoint of how they process and respond to science as it relates to agroecological phenomena. Data from a sample (n = 111) of farmers and ranchers located in the US state of Colorado are used to expand our understanding of how food producers process scientific claims. These insights, I argue, help us think through public understandings of science more generally. Using semi-structured interviews, the paper unpacks an identified asymmetry in how respondents perceive climate science and the science associated with genetically modified food and seed. These tensions are interrogated with the help of a novel methodological design that generated data converted to shading matrices—also known as heat maps. The heat maps illuminate certain cultural values among respondents, which were reinforced by motivated reasoning. This allows for an interrogation of tensions and inconsistencies in respondents' remarks about a variety of scientific claims. The heat maps, coupled with the qualitative data, allow for an exploration into how respondents perceive certain salient socio-technical issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The public education system can play a pivotal role in creating an electorate that is well informed of the consensus around climate change and its anthropogenic causes. In particular, more states have education standards that specifically address climate change today than ever before. However, previous research raises concerns about the discretion teachers have in if and how particular types of content are presented. The effectiveness of new state standards and the extent to which such state-level standards are coopted by teacher discretion has received minimal attention. Therefore, using a nationally representative sample of 1500 middle school and high school science teachers, this research examines the effectiveness of such state-level standards and the extent to which teacher ideology and knowledge mediate the relationship between standards and actual use of a consensus-informed approach to teaching climate science. Results show that teachers in states with any type of standards around climate change spend significantly more time on the topic in the classroom. However, teachers in states that have standards that require teachers to present "both sides" of climate change are significantly less likely to use a consensus-informed approach. While teacher characteristics (knowledge and ideology) can weaken their effect, standards continue to be important predictors of the time spent on climate change in the classroom and how content is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of climate science standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement on climate change recognizes, reluctantly albeit, the importance of 'climate justice' in its Preamble. Despite a change from a top-down burden-sharing approach to a bottom-up pledge and review regime, concerns of distributive justice remain central to the evolution of climate research, regime, and policy. The Paris Agreement also proposes a new market-based mechanism to promote ambition. Reasserting the unavoidability of 'climate justice' concerns, and responding to the suggestion that the proposed new market-based mechanism could learn from the experience of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), this paper argues that such a recommendation should be tested against a comprehensive understanding of compatibility between justice and the market. This paper postulates that both justice and the market have institutional underpinnings, which embed them into deeper, and interconnected, layers of values and relations. Arguing that 'climate justice' is best understood as 'an agreed ensemble of values,' we propose that the architecture of the UNFCCC in which these values are articulated, negotiated, and agreed upon needs to be conceptualized as consisting of four distinct, but evolving, institutional spheres: ambition, obligations and entitlements, mechanisms, and deliberation. The approach is illustrated using the case of the CDM, and implications are suggested for the proposed market-based mechanism under the Paris Agreement. The paper argues that the concerns of 'climate justice' have multiple institutional dimensions, and the market-based mechanisms may contribute to realizing certain dimensions of 'climate justice,' while considerably subverting others. The extent of both outcomes depends greatly on the 'agreed' conception of justice, design of mechanisms, and capabilities of the participants. Our findings suggest a judicious combination of non-market mechanisms with the market-based mechanisms would better serve the desired goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the impacts of extreme precipitation on human or natural systems under climate change, the development of climate risk assessment approach is a crucial task. In this paper, a novel risk assessing approach based on a climate risk assessment framework with copula-based approaches is proposed. Firstly, extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and their marginal distributions are estimated for historical and future periods. Next, the joint probability distributions of extreme precipitation are constructed by copula methods and tested by goodness-of-fit indices. The future joint probabilities and joint return periods (JRPs) of the EPIs are then evaluated. Finally, change rates of JRPs for future periods are estimated to assess climate risk with the quantitative data of exposure and vulnerability of a protected target. An actual application in Taiwan Island is successfully conducted for climate risk assessment with the impacts of extreme precipitation. The results indicate that most of regions in Taiwan Island might have higher potential climate risk under different scenarios in the future. The future joint probabilities of precipitation extremes might cause the high risk of landslide and flood disasters in the mountainous area, and of inundation in the plain area. In sum, the proposed climate risk assessing approach is expected to be useful for assisting decision makers to draft adaptation strategies and face high risk of the possible occurrence of natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical downscaling (DD) consists in using archives of Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCM) simulations as the atmospheric and sea-surface boundary conditions (BC) to drive nested, Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations. Biases in the CGCM-generated driving BC, however, can have detrimental impacts on RCM performance. It is well documented for the historical period that CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperatures (SST) suffer substantial biases, especially important near coastal regions. Assuming that these SST biases are time-invariant, they could in principle be subtracted from century-long CGCM projections before being used to drive RCMs. This paper investigates the performance of a 3-step DD approach as follows. The CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperatures (SST) are first empirically corrected by subtracting their systematic biases; the corrected SST are then used as ocean surface BC for an atmosphere-only GCM (AGCM) simulation; finally this AGCM simulation provides the atmospheric lateral BC to drive an RCM simulation. This is what we refer to as the 3-step approach CGCM–AGCM–RCM of DD, which can be compared to the traditional 2-step approach CGCM–RCM consisting of driving an RCM simulation directly by CGCM-generated BC. In this paper we compare the results obtained with the two approaches, for present and future climates under RCP8.5, using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) with a grid mesh of 0.22° over the North American CORDEX domain, driven by two CMIP5 models: the Canadian Earth System Model of the Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis (CanESM2) and the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-ESM-MR). The results show that, in current climate, the seasonal-mean 2-m temperature fields simulated with the 3-step DD have generally smaller biases with respect to the observations than those simulated with the 2-step DD; in fact the performance of the 3-step DD simulations often approaches that of the reanalyses-driven simulation. For the seasonal-mean precipitation field, however, the differences between the two DD methods are not conclusive. Differences between the projected climate changes with the two DD methods vary substantially depending upon the variable being considered. Differences are particularly important for temperature: over the bulk of the North American continent, the 3-step DD projects more warming in winter and less in summer. This result highlights the nonlinearities of the climate system, and constitutes an additional measure of uncertainty with DD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are increasingly supporting climate change mitigation efforts. However, little is known about how and why this role in climate finance has evolved, and how MDBs are managing this change internally. This paper addresses these questions through an analysis of energy support provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The paper maps trends in the number and monetary value of ADB energy projects and technical assistance activities, presenting descriptive statistics on five categories of energy between 2000 and 2014. The results indicate that ADB while decreased its support for fossil fuel interventions, this sector continues to enjoy substantial funding support. At the same time, support for sustainable energy projects has also increased, reflecting the Bank's evolving priorities and providing a rough proxy for its entry into the climate finance system. These new insights enhance understanding of the changing dynamics of multilateral climate finance and its complex relationship with development finance institutions. Given their financial resources and policy influence, it is essential for MDBs to support the goals of the new global climate finance architecture. But to be considered a serious actor in the climate finance system, ADB has to revisit its policy architecture, strengthen its accounting procedures, and coordinate its efforts with those of other actors across this fragmented system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models. In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions. Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further amplified through local feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last few years, California has passed some of the strongest climate policies in the USA. These new policies have been motivated in part by increasing concerns over the risk of climate-related impacts and facilitated by the state's existing framework of energy and air quality policies. This paper presents an overview of the evolution of this increased awareness of climate change issues by policy makers brought about by the strong link between climate science and policy in the state. The State Legislature initiated this link in 1988 with the mandate to prepare an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change to California. Further interactions between science and policy has more recently resulted, in summer of 2006, in the passage of Assembly Bill 32, a law that limits future greenhouse gas emissions in California. This paper discusses the important role played by a series of state and regional climate assessments beginning in 1988 and, in particular, the lessons learned from a recently completed study known as the Scenarios Project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing number of studies focusing on extreme weather all over the world, but global trends and research topics related to extreme weather are still unclear. This study aimed to explore the current situation, research themes, and future trends in the field of extreme weather. Publications published from 1980 to 2019 were identified and retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection databases by using keywords on May 5, 2020. Excel 2019, VOSviewer, R, and CiteSpace were used for scientific analysis. The results showed that (1) the number of publications on extreme weather research has rapidly increased and expanded continually, shifting from core disciplines to interdisciplinary fields; (2) the International Journal of Climatology was the most productive journal, and climate and environment were the most popular subject categories. Most studies were carried out in the USA, China, Germany, and other nations, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences was the most productive institution; (3) the main research topics were summarized as (a) climate change; (b) variability; (c) trends; (d) rainfall; (e) temperature; and (f) maximum. At the same time, (4) keyword bursts analysis showed that the domain focused on changes to atmospheric rivers, the impacts of global nitrogen content on extreme weather, and the relationship between water quality, soil moisture content, and extreme weather. Based on the in-depth analysis of extreme weather research, this paper developed a further understanding of the developments in this field over the past 39 years and also provided a reference for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface albedo feedback, along with heat and moisture transport from the Equator to the Poles, is associated with polar amplification which is a well-established scientific fact. The present paper extends (Brock and Xepapadeas in Eur Econ Rev 94:263-282, 2017) to a non-cooperative framework with polar amplification, where regions decide emissions by maximizing own welfare. This can be regarded as a case of regional non-cooperation regarding climate change. Open loop and feedback solutions are derived and compared, in terms of temperature paths and welfare, with the cooperative solution. Carbon taxes which could bridge the gap between cooperative and non-cooperative emissions path are also derived. Finally, the framework is extended to a Ramsey set-up in which it is shown how the regional climate model can be coupled with standard optimal growth models. Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results and provide insights about the size and the direction of deviations between the cooperative and the non-cooperative solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sahel is prone to climate stressors such as droughts, winds and floods. This study employs a systematic review approach to track the frequency with which these stressors are reported in the scientific peer reviewed literature, examining publishing trends to identify which stressors are most reported, documenting the spatial distribution of these stressors from a country and regional perspective, and assessing the role played by climatic and non-climatic drivers in causing the stressors. A total of (n = 388) reports of stressors were documented in (n = 164) peer reviewed articles. From a country perspective, Southern Niger records the highest number of reports on all three stressors (15.97%), followed by Ethiopia (11.85%) and Senegal (10.56%). Regionally, West African Sahel recorded the highest number of reports on all stressors (49.97%) followed by East African Sahel (29.89%) and Central African Sahel (12.11%) respectively. Droughts are observed to be the most frequently reported stressor (n = 219), followed by floods (n = 123) and winds (n = 46). The decade 1975-1985 recorded the highest reports of stressors (n = 207), while the decade 1997-2007 recorded (n = 80) and the decade 1986-1996 recorded (n = 52). While climatic drivers are dominant (52%), there is however an increasing attribution of the drivers of the stressors to non-climatic drivers (47%). The main weakness of this study is that it uses peer reviewed papers dwelling on climate stressors as a proxy for climate stressors in the Sahel and a lot more studies could be hiding in non-peer reviewed studies, underscoring that this work provides a general and baseline overview of the climate stressors in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I propose an evolutionary model that is an alternative to conventional models of growth and the environment. Global economic growth, the evolution of the human population, CO2 emissions, and the state of the environment are endogenous. Societal values are the main driver of all economic variables. They determine the different types of investment, the level of aggregate consumption and employment. Societal values evolve over time in response to economic and environmental conditions. The model is applied to generate possible scenarios for the twenty-first century. A baseline calibration generates an average global GDP growth rate of 3.6% p.a. and a global population level of 11.2 billion people in 2100. Mean global temperate in 2100 will be 1.77∘C higher than in 1995. These results are probably too optimistic. Sensitivity analyses show how these outcomes depend on various parameters. If values respond to environmental conditions only, global warming would reach 2.5∘C and a lower impact of investment in carbon efficiency could lead to average temperature increase by 4.8∘C. The model is a novel conceptual framework that can be extended in many dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme's UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared errors of all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision-relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future climate change, there is little reason to expect that post-processing of model outputs can correct for the consequences of such errors. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy probabilistic projections at high resolution out to the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An error in the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which wrongly predicted the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers by 2035, fueled doubts about the authority, honesty and rigor of the IPCC as a leading institution in climate science and, correspondingly, raised questions about whether global warming is anything more than a hoax put forward by environmentalists. The late and confusing reaction of the IPCC to these allegations only worsened the matter. By comparing assessment reports issued by the IPCC, this paper asks the question: 'Why, despite extensive peer review, did the Himalayan glacier melting rate error get published?' I chronicle exactly what happened (Sect. 3), consider why it happened as it did (Sect. 4), and show how these answers require us to rethink the concept of 'peer review' in scientific practice. I also identify several future directions for peer review (Sect. 5) if it wants to stay ahead of the game, bearing in mind the forthcoming IPCC Assessment Reports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We welcome a broader debate on this aspect of global responses to climate change, attempt to reconcile our views in the following. B replying to b A. Lanson et al. I Nature Communications i https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31425-x (2022) In response to our recent paper[1] (hereafter SFL20) concerning the relation between natural variability in the climate system and the time to detect a response to emissions mitigation, Lanson et al.[2] (hereafter L22) call for 'a broader debate on how to best assess and communicate emerging effects of climate mitigation in the light of natural variability'. It is still efficient in revealing differences between the rapid climate response to aerosol perturbations, similar to the idealized test performed by L22, and the slower evolution from e.g. CO2 emissions. [Extracted from the article]

Managers were invited to attend the two-day 'Predicting Ecological Changes in the Florida Everglades in a Future Climate Scenario' workshop and to participate in discussion and panel sessions. This paper provides a management perspective on the technical presentations presented at the workshop, identifying information of particular interest to Everglades restoration decision-making. In addition, the paper highlights the points related to science and decision-making that emerged from the discussion sessions and provides thoughts for future discussion in a follow-up forum. Particular focus is dedicated to the importance of and challenges associated with integrating science and decision-making. In addition, the paper offers a management perspective on the uncertainties of climate science and the implications they have for influencing Everglades restoration decision-making. The authors propose that on the one hand, even given uncertainties associated with predicting the ecological response to climate change, there remains a scientific consensus that Everglades restoration is generally on the right track. On the other hand, uncertainty can be a significant barrier to climate science influencing the implementation of restoration and adaptive management programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts are already happening through the world, and it is now clear that there is the need for an adaptive response from global institutions down to the local level. Reducing vulnerability to cope with climate variability might be more challenging in tropical countries than in North America or Europe. The ten papers of this special issue were presented during the Adaptclim conference that was held by the Sinergia Project, the CLARIS LPB project, and the GeoData Institute in Asunción, Paraguay, in 2010. All papers, except one regarding the Brahmaputra Basin in South Asia, present studies from South America. These studies are first contextualized geographically and then are related one to another by a simplified vulnerability concept linking climate stress to sensitivity and adaptive capacity of natural and human systems. One half of the papers focus on actual or future climate change and the present-day causes of the vulnerability of natural and agrosystems. Droughts are and will be the main source of stress for agriculture in South America. Increasing fragmentation of forest of the center of this continent is aggravating their vulnerability to dry spells. Another half of the studies of this special issue deal with the adaptive capacity human populations to system perturbations produced or enhanced by climate change. The studies point out inclusion of traditional knowledge and involvement of local actors in their own vulnerability assessment to increase adaptive capacity. These elements of climate justice, giving voice to those less responsible for carbon emissions but bearing their most severe consequences, allow the particular needs of a community to be considered and can direct adaptation policy toward preserving or rebuilding their specific capabilities under threat from climate change. The special issue also made clear that a basin analysis of the climate change problem could provide information, results, and methods more readily of use for the local population and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country's adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I investigate the intraday effects of rain on the demand for indoor leisure. To do so, I use sub-daily museum attendance and weather data to reveal a dynamic response to precipitation that would be obscured using day-level data. I find that the magnitudes and signs of the effects of rainfall vary significantly throughout the day. In some hours, the predicted increase in visitors is nearly three times larger than would be expected from estimates using daily measures. Many individuals appear to actively adjust their plans throughout the day in response to rain, while others’ attendance depends upon prior weather forecasts of rain. Further analysis reveals that visit duration also increases during rainy periods, and visitors are more likely to attend pay-to-enter special exhibits. International visitors make up a greater share of total visitors during periods of observed precipitation. More broadly, this paper establishes the viability and value of working with widely available sub-daily rainfall data to uncover these dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. In this paper, we present the landscape of climate model data available in the Philippines and show how multi-model, multi-method climate projections are being used and communicated to inform climate change policy and planning, focusing on the agriculture sector. We highlight the importance of examining and communicating methodological strengths and weaknesses as well as understanding the needs and capabilities of different user communities. We discuss the assessment of projections from different methods, including global and regional downscaled simulations, and discuss ways to summarise and communicate this information to stakeholders using co-production approaches. The paper concludes with perspectives on how to best use an “ensemble of opportunity” to construct defensible, plausible and usable climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a comparative study of four different cases on vulnerability, hazards and adaptive capacity to climate threats in coastal areas and communities in four developing countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay. Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR), storm surges and flooding due to their (i) exposure, (ii) concentration of settlements, many of which occupied by less advantaged groups and (iii) the concentration of assets and services seen in these areas. The objective of the paper is twofold: (i) to evaluate current evidence of coastal vulnerability and adaptive capacity and (ii) to compare adaptation strategies being implemented in a sample of developing countries, focusing on successful ones. The followed approach for the case evaluation is based on (i) documenting observed threats and damages, (ii) using indicators of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive capacity status and (iii) selecting examples of successful responses. Major conclusions based on cross-case comparison are (a) the studied countries show different vulnerability, adaptive capacity and implementation of responses, (b) innovative community-based (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and (c) early warning systems are key approaches and tools to foster climate resilience. A recommendation to foster the resilience of coastal communities and services is that efforts in innovative adaptation strategies to sea-level rise should be intensified and integrated with climate risk management within the national adaption plans (NAPAs) in order to reduce the impacts of hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a potential threat to achieving food security, particularly in the most food insecure regions. However, interpreting climate change projections to better understand the potential impacts of a changing climate on food security outcomes is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge through presenting a framework that enables rapid country-level assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity under a range of climate change and adaptation investment scenarios. The results show that vulnerability to food insecurity is projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, and the geographic distribution of vulnerability is similar to that of the present-day; parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are most severely affected. High levels of adaptation act to off-set these increases; however, only the scenario with the highest level of mitigation combined with high levels of adaptation shows improvements in vulnerability compared to the present-day. The results highlight the dual requirement for mitigation and adaptation to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to make gains in tackling food insecurity. The approach is an update to the existing Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index methodology to enable future projections, and the framework presented allows rapid updates to the results as and when new information becomes available, such as updated country-level yield data or climate model output. This approach provides a framework for assessing policy-relevant human food security outcomes for use in long-term climate change and food security planning; the results have been made available on an interactive website for policymakers (www.metoffice.gov.uk/food-insecurity-index). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigation and adaptation represent two solutions to the issue of global warming. While mitigation aims at reducing $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ emissions and preventing climate change, adaptation encompasses a broad scope of techniques used to reduce the impacts of climate change once they have occurred. Both have direct costs on a country's gross domestic product, but costs also arise from temperature increases due to inaction. This paper introduces a tipping point in a real options model and analyzes optimal investment choices in mitigation and their timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five downscaling techniques, namely the statistical downscaling model, the automated statistical downscaling method, the change factor (CF) method, the advanced CF method, the Weather generator (LarsWG5) method, are applied to the upstream basin of the Huaihe River. Changes in regional climate scenarios and hydrology variables are compared in future periods to investigate the uncertainty associated with the downscaling techniques. Paired-sample T test is applied to evaluation the significant of the difference of the means between the observed data and the downscaled data in the future. The Xinanjiang rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate the rainfall-runoff relation. The results demonstrate that the downscaling techniques utilized herein predict an increased tendency in the future. The increases range of maximum temperature (T) is between 3.7 and 4.7 °C until the time period of 2070-2099 (2080s). While, the increases range of minimum temperature (T) is between 2.8 and 4.9 °C until 2080s. The research presented herein determined that there is an increase predicted for the peaks over threshold (discussed in the paper) and a decrease predicted for the peaks below the threshold (discussed in the paper) in the future, which illustrates that the temperature would rise gradually in the future. Precipitation changes are not as obvious as temperatures changes and tend to be influence by the season. Most downscaling techniques predict increases, and others indict decreases. The annual mean precipitation range changes between 3.2 and 53.3 %, and moreover, these changes vary from season to season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]