Search

Since the first issue of the International Journal of Biometeorology in 1957, a total of 135 papers have reported on research in or of African countries. The majority of these have been on topics of animal biometeorology (36%), and the greatest proportion (24%) are situated in Nigeria. There has been a considerable increase in papers on African biometeorology since 2011, with those from this past decade accounting for 58% of all African papers in the journal. This occurs concurrent to an increase in the total number of papers published in the journal, driven by a move to the Editorial Manager system. While 66% of the papers on African biometeorology in the journal are authored by at least one person with an affiliation in the African continent, only 15 African countries are represented in the total authorship. As much of the African continent is projected to experience climatic changes exceeding the global mean, as much of the region is involved in animal and plant farming, and as seasonally-fluctuating and climatically affected diseases are common place, this low representation of work in Africa is surprising. This points to the need for greater awareness among African researchers of the discipline of biometeorology, greater involvement of African biometeorologists in International Society of Biometeorology and Commission meetings, and the inclusion of a greater number of African academics in the review process. This would be beneficial to the Society in increasing diversity and encouraging a more cosmopolitan engagement, and to the recognition of scientific development in African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB) has been the flagship journal in the field for the past 60+ years. However, given its interdisciplinary nature, biometeorology research has appeared in numerous publication outlets other than the IJB. This study compiles the most popular of these journals, so that early-career biometeorologists might be able to be exposed to more literature that the field has to offer. In focusing on where members of the International Society of Biometeorology's (ISB) Climate and Human Health Commission (CHH) members publish, journals with a general focus on fields such as climate, the environment, and health stand out. Many of these journals have impact factors much higher than the IJB, potentially making them more attractive for dissemination of results to a larger audience. With this paper, the authors hope that the interest in biometeorology is broadened through an expansion of known available literature, specifically with early-career researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyzed the climate change impact in some wine-growing areas of the Abruzzi region through the estimated dates of bud burst and the study of the relationships between some bioclimatic indexes with the beginning of harvest date of cv. Montepulciano, during the period 1974–2013. The earlier harvest date would seem mainly linked to the increase of heat summation in the period March–June. The break point of the time series of harvest date showed good correlation with the heat summation in the period from March to June. Climate change, occurred in European continent begun around 1980, would determine in the wine-growing areas of Abruzzi, a significant reduction in the growth cycle of the cv. Montepulciano, mainly due to the earlier harvest date, considering that there were no substantial changes in the estimated dates of bud burst. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of phenological changes in vegetation is essential for the assessment of the response and adaptation of ecosystems/agro-ecosystems to climate change. This study analyses spatial and temporal changes in phenological events (phenophases) and in the climatic growing season in southern and south-eastern Romania, based on mean monthly temperature values recorded between 1961 and 2010 at 24 weather stations, spread out uniformly in the study area. By using the histophenogram method for extracting the mean phenophases length (eight in total, i.e. growing season onset, budding-leafing, flowering, fruiting, maturing, dissemination, start of leaf loss and end of leaf loss) and that of the overall growing season, this paper aims to analyse current phenological changes (in three periods, 1991-2000, 2001-2010 and 1991-2010) in relation to 1961-1990, which is the reference interval in various global climatic studies. Following the analysis of the theoretical phenology length, based on the temperature thresholds (between 5 and 25 °C) that differentiate biological cycles of vegetation, results showed an overall increase in phenological activity (especially in the past decade, 2001-2010), except for two phenophases (fruiting and dissemination), for which largely dominant length decreases were identified. Quantitatively, increases (and null changes, in a few cases) in phenological length generally range between 0-5 days/0-10% (e.g. in the budding-leafing phenophase) and 11-15 days/10.1-20% (maturing), considering the absolute changes or percentages in the three periods, compared to the reference interval 1961-1990. For the most part, the current decrease in the fruiting and dissemination phenophases falls in the interval −1 to −5 days/−10.1 to −20%, compared to the reference period. At the same time, it was noticed that the entire growing season has been expanding, especially in the past decade, when numerous increase instances of up to 15 days were recorded, corresponding to a dominant interval of 0-10% from the period 1961-1990. The results can be particularly useful for adapting the different types of crops to future climate changes, considering that the study area has a high agro-ecological importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the thermal comfort and its changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the last 50 years have been evaluated by using the physiological equivalent temperature (PET), and a more complete tourism climate picture is presented by the Climate-Tourism-Information Scheme (CTIS). The results show that PET classes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau cover six out of the nine-point thermal sensation scale - very cold, cold, cool, slightly cool, neutral and slightly warm - and cold stress is prevailing throughout the year. A small number of slightly cool/warm and neutral days occur in summer months. There occur no warm, hot and very hot days. The frequency of PET classes varies among regions, depending on their altitude/latitude conditions. Xining, Lhasa and Yushu are the top three cities in terms of thermal favorability. With global warming, annual cumulative number of thermally favorable days has been increasing, and that of cold stress has been reducing. The change is more obvious in lower elevation than that in higher elevation regions. The improving thermal comfort in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau might be a glad tiding for local communities and tourists. Besides PET, CTIS can provide a number of additional bioclimatic information related to tourism and recreational activities. CTIS for Lhasa and Xining shows that sunshine is plentiful all the year round, and windy days occur frequently from late January to early May. This is a useful bioclimatic information for tourism authorities, travel agencies, resorts and tourists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among several urban design parameters, the height-to-width ratio (H/W) and orientation are important parameters strongly affecting thermal conditions in cities. This paper quantifies changes in thermal comfort due to typical urban canyon configurations in Campinas, Brazil, and presents urban guidelines concerning H/W ratios and green spaces to adapt urban climate change. The study focuses on thermal comfort issues of humans in urban areas and performs evaluation in terms of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), based on long-term data. Meteorological data of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation over a 7-year period (2003-2010) were used. A 3D street canyon model was designed with RayMan Pro software to simulate the influence of urban configuration on urban thermal climate. The following configurations and setups were used. The model canyon was 500 m in length, with widths 9, 21, and 44 m. Its height varied in steps of 2.5 m, from 5 to 40 m. The canyon could be rotated in steps of 15°. The results show that urban design parameters such as width, height, and orientation modify thermal conditions within street canyons. A northeast-southwest orientation can reduce PET during daytime more than other scenarios. Forestry management and green areas are recommended to promote shade on pedestrian areas and on façades, and to improve bioclimate thermal stress, in particular for H/W ratio less than 0.5. The method and results can be applied by architects and urban planners interested in developing responsive guidelines for urban climate issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper scopes a number of the health impacts of climate change in Europe (EU-27) quantitatively, using physical and monetary metrics. Temperature-related mortality effects, salmonellosis and coastal flooding-induced mental health impacts resulting from climate change are isolated from the effects of socio-economic change for the 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 time periods. The temperature-induced mortality effects of climate change include both positive and negative effects, for winter (cold) and summer (heat) effects, respectively, and have welfare costs (and benefits) of up to 100 billion Euro annually by the later time-period, though these are unevenly distributed across countries. The role of uncertainty in quantifying these effects is explored through sensitivity analysis on key parameters. This investigates climate model output, climate scenario, impact function, the existence and extent of acclimatisation, and the choice of physical and monetary metrics. While all of these lead to major differences in reported results, acclimatisation is particularly important in determining the size of the health impacts, and could influence the scale and form of public adaptation at the EU and national level. The welfare costs for salmonellosis from climate change are estimated at potentially several hundred million Euro annually by the period 2071-2100. Finally, a scoping assessment of the health costs of climate change from coastal flooding, focusing on mental health problems such as depression, are estimated at up to 1.5 billion Euro annually by the period 2071-2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass burning is an integral part of the Earth system, influencing and being influenced by global climate conditions, vegetation cover and human activity. Fire has long been associated with certain vegetation types and land uses in Southeast Asia, but has increasingly affected forests in Indonesia over the last 50 years or so, and peat swamp forests in particular during the last two to three decades. The role of humans, as igniters of fires and as contributors to the conditions that enable fires once ignited to spread widely, is discussed. Other factors, notably the involvement of anomalous climate conditions linked to variability in the Indian and Pacific oceans, are also considered. Global warming and changes in landuse could result in biomass burning becoming more frequent in the future, threatening biodiversity and human health and leading to positive feedbacks with climate change. Deliberate action is required to break a developing disequilibrium within the Earth system: incentives currently being considered under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change aimed at curbing climate change-causing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation could help mitigate biomass burning, while the effective management of biochar, a stable form of carbon produced from the incomplete combustion of organic matter, by farmers in Southeast Asia, and in other regions where biomass burning is common, could help in carbon sequestration. The paper concludes by stressing that in order to be effective any action needs to recognise the full range of environmental and human factors underpinning biomass burning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes affect the abundance, geographic extent, and floral composition of vegetation, which are reflected in the pollen rain. Sediment cores taken from lakes and peat bogs can be analysed for their pollen content. The fossil pollen records provide information on the temporal changes in climate and palaeo-environments. Although the complexity of the variables influencing vegetation distribution requires a multi-dimensional approach, only a few research projects have used GIS to analyse pollen data. This paper presents a new approach to palynological data analysis by combining GIS and spatial modelling. Eastern Colombia was chosen as a study area owing to the migration of the forest–savanna boundary since the last glacial maximum, and the availability of pollen records. Logistic regression has been used to identify the climatic variables that determine the distribution of savanna and forest in eastern Colombia. These variables were used to create a predictive land-cover model, which was subsequently implemented into a GIS to perform spatial analysis on the results. The palynological data from the study area were incorporated into the GIS. Reconstructed maps of past vegetation distribution by interpolation showed a new approach of regional multi-site data synthesis related to climatic parameters. The logistic regression model resulted in a map with 85.7% predictive accuracy, which is considered useful for the reconstruction of future and past land-cover distributions. The suitability of palynological GIS application depends on the number of pollen sites, the distribution of the pollen sites over the area of interest, and the degree of overlap of the age ranges of the pollen records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of forest vegetation carbon storage in China varied due to different methods used in the assessments. In this paper, we estimated the forest vegetation carbon storage from the Fourth Forest Inventory Data (FFID) in China using a modified volume-derived method. Results showed that total carbon storage and mean carbon density of forest vegetation in China were 3.8 Pg C (about 1.1% of the global vegetation carbon stock) and 41.32 Mg/ha, respectively. In addition, based on linear multiple regression equation and factor analysis method, we analyzed contributions of biotic and abiotic factors (including mean forest age, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and altitude) to forest carbon storage. Our results indicated that forest vegetation carbon storage was more sensitive to changes of mean annual temperature than other factors, suggesting that global warming would seriously affect the forest carbon storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has in the past led to shifts in vegetation patterns; in a future, warmer climate due to enhanced greenhouse-gas concentrations, vegetation is also likely to be highly responsive to such warming. Mountain regions are considered to be particularly sensitive to such changes. In this paper we present an approach to assess the impact of climate change on long-term vegetation plots at the high-elevation site of the Schynige Platte, 2000 m above sea level, in the Bernese Alps (Switzerland). Records of vegetation spanning the period from 1928 to today at two different sites, each with several plots, were considered. The observed change in the species composition was then related to changes in land use and climate. We used daily values of temperature, snow and precipitation from several high-elevation weather stations to conduct these analyses. The correlation between climate and vegetation patterns revealed that species that prefer low thermal conditions move out of the plots, i.e., their frequency of occurrence is negatively correlated with the average number of degree-days over the last six decades. On the other hand, species with higher thermal demands are seen to be invading the plots, i.e., their frequency of occurrence is positively correlated to the average number of degree-days. Nutrient changes – though independent from climate – also play an important role in the observed shifts in species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work analyses the main weather patterns over the period 1981–2010 in the Central Apennines (Italy), drawing upon data from 23 monitoring stations spanning a wide elevation range (260–1750 m asl). Cluster analysis was used to identify homogeneous units and to verify the effectiveness of the bioclimatic classification by crossing the results derived from the application of hierarchical and non-hierarchical classification techniques. The results reveal a diversified picture of five clusters that depends on several factors as elevation, the geographic position within or outside the mountainous range, and the regional morphological traits. Although Mediterranean and Temperate climatic features coexist, the Mediterranean pattern in the southern areas and internal valleys better expresses the overall mixed characteristics of Central Italy. The use of a mixed methodology of hierarchic and partitioning methods of cluster analysis improves the bioclimatic classification, especially to quantify the level of humidity and the mediterraneity degree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of climate has profoundly impacted a wide range of macroecological processes in the Late Quaternary. Our understanding of these has greatly benefited from palaeoclimate simulations, however, high-quality reconstructions of ecologically relevant climatic variables have thus far been limited to a few selected time periods. Here, we present a 0.5° resolution bias-corrected dataset of global monthly temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed, 17 bioclimatic variables, annual net primary productivity, leaf area index and biomes, covering the last 120,000 years at a temporal resolution of 1,000–2,000 years. We combined medium-resolution HadCM3 climate simulations of the last 120,000 years with high-resolution HadAM3H simulations of the last 21,000 years, and modern-era instrumental data. This allows for the temporal variability of small-scale features whilst ensuring consistency with observed climate. Our data make it possible to perform continuous-time analyses at a high spatial resolution for a wide range of climatic and ecological applications - such as habitat and species distribution modelling, dispersal and extinction processes, biogeography and bioanthropology. Measurement(s) temperature • precipitation process • vegetation layer • atmospheric wind speed • cloud • humidity Technology Type(s) computational modeling technique Factor Type(s) geographic location • temporal interval Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location Earth (planet) Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12436484 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (PA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nation-wide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The high-velocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. Even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied PAs by the end of this century. Thus, in PA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of climate change are available at coarse scales (70–400 km). But agricultural and species models typically require finer scale climate data to model climate change impacts. Here, we present a global database of future climates developed by applying the delta method –a method for climate model bias correction. We performed a technical evaluation of the bias-correction method using a 'perfect sibling' framework and show that it reduces climate model bias by 50–70%. The data include monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly total precipitation, and a set of bioclimatic indices, and can be used for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity. The data are publicly available in the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC; cera-www.dkrz.de), as well as in the CCAFS-Climate data portal (http://ccafs-climate.org). The database has been used up to date in more than 350 studies of ecosystem and agricultural impact assessment. Measurement(s) climate change • precipitation process • precipitation amount • consecutive dry months index per time period • temperature of air Technology Type(s) computational modeling technique Factor Type(s) spatial region Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location Earth (planet) Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.11353664 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

A methodological approach for modelling the spatial multivariate distribution of multiple bioclimatic indices is presented. The value of the indices is modelled by means of a Bayesian conditional coregionalised linear model. Elicitation of prior distributions and approximation of posterior distributions of the parameters in the proposed model are also discussed. A posterior predictive distribution and a spatial bioclimatic probability distribution for each bioclimatic index are obtained. This allows researchers to obtain the probability of each location belonging to different bioclimates. The presented methodology is applied in a practical setting showing that the spatial bioclimatic probability distributions are more realistic than the ones obtained in the univariate setting, while providing an interesting tool in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many tree species are predicted to shift their geographic ranges with changing climate, but the extents, timing, and magnitude of these shifts remain uncertain. Comparing various modeling strategies is crucial for reducing uncertainty related to these responses and for guiding the interpretation of model results. Here, we compared outputs of a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) and an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs) in predicting range shifts of 14 representative tree species in continental Europe. Expanding the number of species and geographic extent compared to previous model comparisons, we found that the DVM produced more conservative range shift estimates, even in long-term equilibrium simulations. The differences in range shift projections were greatest for Mediterranean species, whose expansion northwards was inhibited in the DVM by more competitive prevailing temperate species. In contrast to our expectation, competitive traits of the species studied did not consistently affect the differences. The agreement between BEM and DVM results was highest in boreal species, suggesting that BEMs are an efficient method for modeling species under strong control of abiotic factors. BEMs produced substantially larger range contractions at the southern edge of distribution, in contrary to the DVM, where contractions were more modest. Despite these differences, both approaches also yielded consistent northwards shifts of forest types, which may have substantial negative impacts on forest economy, and alter species composition in natural forest stands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many recognize the role of public policy in catalyzing action to address climate change. Attention has turned to theories of policy change, focusing on agents and their activities. Less clear, however, is the relationship between effective policy change and the actors, their context, and their strategies. We therefore ask: to what extent do kinds of policy actors, institutional settings, and policy entrepreneurial strategies influence policy change? Drawing from experiences in a subnational jurisdiction in the Canadian Arctic (Northwest Territories), the following findings emerged. Firstly, policy change occurred due to the efforts of a wide-ranging collective of policy actors. We further suggest that more attention focus upon the structures in which they operate. These aspects include modern treaty and devolution agreements; mechanisms that provide people with opportunities to engage within policy formulation processes; attempts at incorporating alternative viewpoints; dispersed communities; and experience with decentralized electricity. In addition, by attempting to align strategies with features unique to the region help foster policy change. These strategies included capitalizing on focusing events (e.g., low water levels affecting one of the hydro-based electricity systems in a populace with a heightened awareness of climate change); issue linking (climate change, energy security, self-reliance); fostering networks involving insiders and outsiders and in a decentralized fashion; and utilizing a promising venue (an energy charrette). In essence, a key feature of the region is that many features are in a state of flux. We posit that these open or fluid systems are ecologies in which policy entrepreneurship can possibly thrive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere have been taking place during the latter part of the twentieth century and the early part of the twenty-first century. In the Belgorod region of Southwest Russia, this has been manifested in the more frequent occurrence of stationary anticyclones, including those referred to as blocking anticyclones, especially during the summer season. Also, there has been a general increase in regional temperatures during the growing season over the period mentioned above, and combined with the more frequent occurrence of anticyclones has led to less humid conditions. In the Missouri region of the Central USA, variability in the circulation on differing time scales within the Eastern Pacific plays a strong role in the conditions that impact the growing season. As a result of changes in climate and climate variability, the benefit to agriculture during this period produces mixed results for both regions. This work will evaluate the growing season conditions using indexes that combine growing season temperature and precipitation such as the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) and the bioclimatic potential (BCP). Also, the interannual variability of these indexes in both regions was examined. In the Belgorod region, the increase in temperature combined with little change in precipitation produced mixed results in interpreting these indexes. This was accompanied by more variable conditions as revealed by these indexes in the early twenty-first century. In the Missouri region, there was little trend in either index over the time period and the tendency was toward less climatic variability in the HTC and BCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sensitivity analysis can categorize levels of parameter influence on a model's output. Identifying parameters having the most influence facilitates establishing the best values for parameters of models, providing useful implications in species modelling of crops and associated insect pests. The aim of this study was to quantify the response of species models through a CLIMEX sensitivity analysis. Using openfield Solanum lycopersicum and Neoleucinodes elegantalis distribution records, and 17 fitting parameters, including growth and stress parameters, comparisons were made in model performance by altering one parameter value at a time, in comparison to the best-fit parameter values. Parameters that were found to have a greater effect on the model results are termed Bsensitive^. Through the use of two species, we show that even when the Ecoclimatic Index has a major change through upward or downward parameter value alterations, the effect on the species is dependent on the selection of suitability categories and regions of modelling. Two parameters were shown to have the greatest sensitivity, dependent on the suitability categories of each species in the study. Results enhance user understanding of which climatic factors had a greater impact on both species distributions in our model, in terms of suitability categories and areas, when parameter values were perturbed by higher or lower values, compared to the best-fit parameter values. Thus, the sensitivity analyses have the potential to provide additional information for end users, in terms of improving management, by identifying the climatic variables that are most sensitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area’s historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area’s climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a preliminary and major step for land use planning of the coming years, the study of variability of the past decades' climatic conditions with comprehensive indicators is of high importance. Given the fact that one of the affected areas by climatic change includes variability of thermal comfort, this study uses the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) to identify and evaluate bioclimatic conditions of 40 meteorological stations in Iran. In this study, PET changes for the period of 1960 to 2010 are analyzed, with the use of Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Pearson parametric method. The study focuses particularly on the diversity in spatio-temporal distribution of Iran's bioclimatic conditions. The findings show that the mean frequency percentage of days with comfort is 12.9 % according to the total number of selected stations. The maximum and minimum frequency percentage with values of 17.4 and 10.3 belong to Kerman and Chabahar stations, respectively. The findings of long-term trend analysis for the period of 1960-2010 show that 55 % of the stations have significant increasing trend in terms of thermal comfort class based on the Pearson method, while it is 40 % based on Mann-Kendall test. The results indicate that the highest frequency of days with thermal comfort in the southern coasts of Iran relates to the end of autumn and winter, nevertheless, such ideal conditions for the coastal cities of Caspian Sea and even central stations of Iran relate to mid-spring and mid-autumn. Late summer and early autumn along with late spring can be identified as the most ideal times in the west and northwest part of Iran. In addition, the most important inhibiting factors of thermal comfort prove to be different across the regions of Iran. For instance, in the southern coasts, warm to very hot bioclimatic events and in the west and northwest regions, cold to very cold conditions turn out to be the most important inhibiting factors. When considering the variations across the studied period, an increase in the frequency of thermal comfort condition is observed in almost half of the stations. Moreover, based on Pearson and Mann-Kendall methods, the trend of changes in monthly averages of PET has decreased in most stations and months, which can lead to different consequences in each month and station. Thus, it is expected that due to PET changes in recent decades and to the intensified global warming conditions, Iran's bioclimatic conditions change in a way that transfers the days with comfort to early spring and late autumn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerobiology and biometeorology are related fields. Here we provide a broad review of aerobiology articles published in the International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB) over the past 60 years. We consider how the quantity of such work has varied over this period as well as which regions and countries have been the focus of such work, and where there is a relative paucity. We then focus on a number of highlights and themes in this research, including aerobiology and climate change and aerobiological modelling and forecasting. While much of the article focusses on airborne pollen research, we also discuss the extent to which other airborne organic particles such as fungal spores and bacteria have been the focus of research published in IJB. Also considered are knowledge gaps and research needs and priorities with respect to the field of aerobiology. While the IJB has been one of the main platforms for presenting aerobiological research over recent decades, the article highlights the need for the field of aerobiology to embrace new sampling technologies such as spectral analysis and next-generation sequencing to identify and quantify airborne biological particles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Executive Board of the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) founded the Commission on Climate, Tourism and Recreation (CCTR) at the 15th International Congress of Biometeorology in Sydney, Australia in 1999. The aims of the CCTR are to bring together researchers from around the world to critically review the current state of knowledge in tourism and recreation climatology and explore possibilities for future research. Almost two decades on, research in tourism climatology has developed and expanded due in large part to the initiatives and activities of the CCTR and several collaborative research projects run under the auspices of the CCTR. This work is reviewed here. Recent CCTR meeting highlighted the fact that, although climate is an essential part of the resource base for tourism, which is one of the world's biggest and fastest growing industries, relatively little is known about the effects of climate on tourist choices and broad demand patterns or the influence climate has on the commercial prospects and sustainability of tourism operators and destinations. The work here reviews what has been done, its conceptual underpinnings and current research frontiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In human biometeorology, the integration of several microclimatic variables as a combined index facilitates the understanding of how users perceive thermal environments. Indices, such as the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) index, translate the combined effects of meteorological variables on humans in terms of thermal stress or comfort and serve as important aids to climate-responsive urban and regional planning as well as heat stress and thermal comfort analyses. However, there is a need for adjusting proposed comfort/stress ranges of a given index when using it in different climatic contexts. The purpose of this study is to present a preliminary calibration procedure for the PET index for three different climatic regions: Curitiba, Brazil, a subtropical location; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a tropical city; and Glasgow, UK, a high-latitude location. Field studies have been carried out by the authors according to a similar protocol and using similar equipment, yielding actual thermal sensation votes and microclimate data, post-processed as PET data. The calibration procedure uses exclusively thermal sensation data as reported by pedestrians during outdoor comfort campaigns and concurrent microclimatic data recorded during the interviews. PET comfort/stress classes differ among the three locations and, in general, are less restrictive as in the original ranges proposed by the index developers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing concern about declines in pollinator species, and more recently reservations have been expressed about mismatch in plant-pollinator synchrony as a consequence of phenological change caused by rising temperatures. Long-term changes in honeybee Apis mellifera phenology may have major consequences for agriculture, especially the pollinator market, as well as for honey production. To date, these aspects have received only modest attention. In the current study, we examine honeybee and beekeeping activity in southern Poland for the period 1965-2010, supplemented by hive yields from a beekeeper in southern UK in the same period. We show that despite negative reports on honeybee condition, and documented climate change, the studied apiary managed to show a marked increase in honey production over the 46 year study period, as did that from the UK. The proportion of the annual yield originating from the first harvest decreased during the study period and was associated with rising temperatures in summer. Honeybee spring phenology showed strong negative relationships with temperature but no overall change through time because temperatures of key early spring months had not increased significantly. In contrast, increasing yields and an increased number of harvests (and hence a later final harvest and longer season) were detected and were related to rising temperatures in late spring and in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Climate change alters the vegetation composition and functioning of ecosystems. Measuring the magnitude, direction, and rate of changes in vegetation composition induced by climate remains a serious and unmet challenge. Such information is required for a predictive capability of how individual ecosystem will respond to future climates. Objectives: Our objectives were to identify the relationships between 20 climate variables and 39 ecosystems across the southwestern USA. We sought to understand the magnitude of relationships between variation in vegetation composition and bioclimatic variables as well as the amount of ecosystem area expected to be affected by future climate changes. Methods: Bioclimatic variables best explaining the plant species composition of each ecosystem were identified. The strength of relationships between beta turnover and bioclimate gradients was calculated, the spatial concordance of ecosystem and bioclimate configurations was shown, and the area of suitable climate remaining within the boundaries of contemporary ecosystems under future climate projections was measured. Results: Across the southwestern USA, four climate variables account for most of the climate related variation in vegetation composition. Twelve ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. By 2070, two ecosystems lose about 4000 (15 %) and 7000 (31 %) km of suitable climate area within their current boundaries (the Western Great Plains Sandhill Steppe and Sonora-Mojave Creosotebush-White Bursage Desert Scrub ecosystems, respectively). The climatic areas of riparian ecosystems are expected to be reduced by half. Conclusions: Results provide specific climate and vegetation parameters for anticipating how, where and when ecosystem vegetation transforms with climate change. Projecting the loss of suitable climate for the vegetation composition of ecosystems is important for assessing ecosystem threats from climate change and for setting priorities for ecosystem conservation and restoration across the southwestern USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quercus coccifera L. (Kermes oak) is an evergreen oak, typical of the maquis in the eastern and south-eastern part of the Mediterranean. It occurs almost continuously along the Syrian-Lebanese coast up to 1500 m and is more scattered inland, up to the arid southernmost area of Petra in Jordan. Human impact and global warming both strongly affect the natural distribution of the species, thus leading to a widespread forest fragmentation in the whole region. In this study, we investigate the current bioclimatic range of Kermes oak and forecast which areas are potentially most suitable over the course of the twenty-first century. Ecological niche modelling was used to retrieve the environmental envelope of the species according to 23 topographic and climate variables. Five algorithms and three general circulation models were applied to provide the potential distribution of Kermes oak at the present time and project it to the future. Results showed a current suitability area in the Middle East extending from NW of Syria, rather continuously along the Lebanese coasts and inland up to the Mediterranean western slopes of Palestine and the Golan area (Israel), encompassing the Jordan Valley towards Dana and Wadi Rum (Jordan), with an isolated patch in Jabal Al-Arab (South Syria). Future scenarios depict a significant fragmentation and restriction of Kermes oak range, especially in the north of Syria and Golan, with a general shifting in altitude. This information may be useful in helping the foresters to cope with the challenge of climate changes by identifying the most suitable areas climatically effective for successful ecosystem restoration and management, including reforestation programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining the direct and indirect effects of climatic factors on vegetation growth is critical to understand the complex linkage between climate change and vegetation dynamics. Based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) from 2001 to 2012, the trend of vegetation dynamics were examined in the Ziya-Daqing basins, China. The path analysis was used to obtain the information on the relationships among climatic factors and their effects on vegetation growth. It was found that the trends of growing season NDVI were insignificant in most plain dry land, while the upward trends were significant in forest, grass and dry land in Taihang Mountains. According to the path analysis, in 23% of the basins the inter-annual NDVI variation was dominated by the direct effect of precipitation, in 5% by the direct effects of precipitation and temperature, and in less than 1% by the direct effect of temperature or indirect effects of these two climatic factors. It indicated that precipitation significantly affected the vegetation growth in the whole basins, and this effect was not regulated by temperature. Precipitation increase (especially in July, August and September) was favorable to greenness enhancement. Summer temperature rising showed negative effect on plant productivity enhancement, but temperature rise in April was beneficial for the vegetation growth. When April temperature increases by 1°C, the onset date of greenness for natural vegetation will be 2 days in advance. There was a lag-time effect of precipitation or temperature on monthly NDVI for all land use types except grass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary climate change is causing large shifts in biotic distributions, which has the potential to bring previously isolated, closely related species into contact. This has led to concern that hybridization and competition could threaten species persistence. Here, we use bioclimatic models to show that future range overlap by the end of the century is predicted for only 6.4% of isolated, congeneric species pairs of New World birds, mammals and amphibians. Projected rates of climate-induced overlap are higher for birds (11.6%) than for mammals (4.4%) or amphibians (3.6%). As many species will have difficulty tracking shifting climates, actual rates of future overlap are likely to be far lower, suggesting that hybridization and competition impacts may be relatively modest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pantropical genus Ixora is highly diverse, with several species endemic to the Philippines. Owing to their endemic nature, many of these species are endangered and little is known about their basic biology. This study aimed to establish baseline information about the bioclimatic niches of Ixora species endemic to the Philippines, determine suitable areas and potential range shifts under future climate conditions, and identify priority areas for conservation and future research. Locality records of 12 endemic Ixora species from the Philippine archipelago were analyzed, with a particular focus on the five most abundant species I. auriculata, I. bartlingii, I. cumingiana, I. macrophylla, and one island endemic species, Ixora palawanensis. Bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database at 2.5′ resolution were used, with a focus on annual means and seasonality of temperature and precipitation as well as precipitation of the warmest quarter. Analysis of the relationships of the species locations with the bioclimatic variables showed that the bioclimatic niches of the five focal Ixora species generally had narrow temperature and wider precipitation niches. Species distribution modeling with the model Maxent suggested that I. auriculata and I. bartlingii will likely shift their geographic distributions southwards under predicted levels of climate change, while I. cumingiana and I. macrophylla were found to likely expand their ranges. Ixora palawanensis, in contrast, was predicted to decrease its potential distribution with future climate change. Further, results of species distribution modeling for the rare endemic Ixora species I. bibracteata, I. chartacea, I. ebracteolata, I. inaequifolia, I. longistipula, I. luzoniensis, and I. macgregorii were presented, which, however, had much less observation points and therefore only provide a first estimate of potential species distributions. The generated potential habitat suitability maps can assist policy makers in designing conservation strategies for the species and in identifying areas with potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizens' opinions are crucial for action on climate change, but are, owing to the complexity of the issue, diverse and potentially unformed. We contribute to the understanding of public views on climate change and to knowledge needed by decision-makers by using a new approach to analyse answers to the open survey question 'what comes to mind when you hear the words 'climate change'?'. We apply automated text analysis, specifically structural topic modelling, which induces distinct topics based on the relative frequencies of the words used in 2,115 responses. From these data, originating from the new, nationally representative Norwegian Citizen Panel, four distinct topics emerge: Weather/Ice, Future/Impact, Money/Consumption and Attribution. We find that Norwegians emphasize societal aspects of climate change more than do respondents in previous US and UK studies. Furthermore, variables that explain variation in closed questions, such as gender and education, yield different and surprising results when employed to explain variation in what respondents emphasize. Finally, the sharp distinction between scepticism and acceptance of conventional climate science, often seen in previous studies, blurs in many textual responses as scepticism frequently turns into ambivalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, a growing body of evidence has emerged indicating that the relationship between flowering phenology and climate may differ throughout various portions of the growing season. These differences have resulted in long-term changes in flowering synchrony that may alter the quantity and diversity of pollinator attention to many species, as well as altering food availability to pollenivorous and nectarivorous animal species. However, long-term multi-season records of past flowering timing have primarily focused on temperate environments. In contrast, changes in flowering phenology within humid subtropical environments such as the southeastern USA remain poorly documented. This research uses herbarium-based methods to examine changes in flowering time across 19,328 samples of spring-, summer-, and autumn-flowering plants in the southeastern USA from the years 1951 to 2009. In this study, species that flower near the onset of the growing season were found to advance under increasing mean March temperatures (−3.391 days/°C, p = 0.022). No long-term advances in early spring flowering or spring temperature were detected during this period, corroborating previous phenological assessments for the southeastern USA. However, late spring through mid-summer flowering exhibited delays in response to higher February temperatures (over 0.1.85 days/°C, p ≤ 0.041 in all cases). Thus, it appears that flowering synchrony may undergo significant restructuring in response to warming spring temperatures, even in humid subtropical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the tabanid species and populations occurring in eastern central Europe (Carpathian Basin) are thoroughly studied, there are only sporadic data about the influence of weather conditions on the abundance and activity of horseflies. To fill in this lack, in Hungary, we performed a 3-month summer survey of horsefly catches registering the weather parameters. Using common canopy traps and polarization liquid traps, we found the following: (i) rainfall, air temperature, and sunshine were the three most important factors influencing the trapping number of tabanids. (ii) The effect of relative air humidity H on tabanids was indirect through the air temperature T: H ≈ 35 % (corresponding to T ≈ 32 °C) was optimal for tabanid trapping, and tabanids were not captured for H ≥ 80 % (corresponding to T ≤ 18 °C). (iii) A fast decrease in the air pressure enhanced the trapping number of both water-seeking and host-seeking horseflies. (iv) Wind velocities larger than 10 km/h reduced drastically the number of trapped tabanids. Our data presented here may serve as a reference for further investigations of the effect of climate change on tabanids in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Harmful algal blooms depend on several factors linked to climate and catchment conditions. Blooms can show significant daily, monthly, seasonal, inter-annual variability as well as horizontal variation in a lake. In the present study, we use satellite data to explore the sensitivity of different sections of a large eutrophic lake (Lake Taihu) to climate and catchment-related drivers. Bloom coverage in the larger open areas of the lake, historically less eutrophic, has increased over the last 12 years even though extensive efforts were made to improve catchment conditions. Decadal trends in these lake sections were more sensitive to climate conditions and nutrient concentrations compared with the more enclosed eutrophic bays. Bloom coverage was bimodal during the year, with regional differences occurring during the second maximum. Links between climate variability, nutrients, and bloom coverage suggest that major bloom events are likely to continue to occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of general suitability for viticulture in wine regions requires a knowledge of the spatial variation in temperature, which is also used to assess different grapevine cultivars and to delimit appropriate zones for winegrape production. However, usually temperature data and methods applied to properly delineate homogeneous areas are not adequate to generate accurate maps. With the aim of providing an analysis using four temperature-based indices, quantifying their spatial variability, and representing the spatial pattern of each index throughout Extremadura, one of the most important Spanish wine regions, temperature data from 117 meteorological stations, considering the 1980-2011 period, were utilized. The statistical properties of each index were assessed and, later, they were mapped by means of an integrated geographic information system (GIS) and a multivariate geostatistics (regression-kriging) approach. Results show that heat-sum temperature indices were highly related to the more simple growing season temperature; however, temperature regime differences varied upon which index was employed. The spatial variability of climate within Extremaduran natural regions (NR) is significant; although the warmer conditions predominate, some NR have part of their territory by up to eight climate classes. This information enables a better understanding of the viticulture suitability within each NR and delineating homogeneous zones. The use of consistent bioclimatic indices and an advanced geostatistical algorithm have made it possible to delimit and compare within-region climates and also enabled comparisons of Extremaduran NR with others worlwide, which should be taken into account to select varieties and assess the possibilities of producing new wines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate Impact Indices (CIIs) are being increasingly used in different socioeconomic sectors to transfer information about climate change impacts to stakeholders. Typically, CIIs comprise into a single index several weather variables -such as temperature, wind speed, precipitation and humidity- which are relevant for a particular problem of interest. Moreover, most of the CIIs require daily (or monthly) physical coherence among these variables for their proper calculation. This constraints the number of statistical downscaling techniques suitable for a component-wise approach to this problem. We test the suitability of the alternative 'direct' downscaling approach in which the downscaling method is applied directly to the CII, thus circumventing the multi-variable problem and allowing the use of a wider range of downscaling methods. For illustrative purposes, we consider two popular CIIs -the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET), used in the wildfire and tourism sectors, respectively- and compare the performance of the two approaches using the analog method, a simple and popular method providing inter-variable dependence. The results obtained with 'perfect' reanalysis predictors are comparable for both approaches, although smaller accuracy is obtained in general with the direct approach. Moreover, similar climate change 'deltas' are obtained with both approaches when applied to an illustrative future global projection using the ECHAM5 model. Overall, there is a trade-off between performance and simplicity which needs to be balanced for each particular application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica has several apparent advantages for the study of biodiversity change along latitudinal gradients including a relatively pristine environment and simple community structures. Published analyses for lichens and mosses show no apparent gradient in biodiversity along the western Ross Sea coast line, the longest ice-free area in Antarctica spanning 14° latitude. One suggestion is that the area remains poorly surveyed. Here, we combine available species lists from four sites along the coast with new own data from two additional sites [Taylor Valley (77°30′S) and Diamond Hill (79°S)]. We show a decline in total terrestrial biodiversity with latitude from Cape Hallett (72°S) to Diamond Hill. However, the southernmost site, the Queen Maud Mountains (84°S), is exceptional with almost the same diversity as Cape Hallett. A categorization of lichens according to their proposed ecology shows the proportion of tolerant species remains relatively constant. However, the absolute number of conformant species declines with latitude, again with a minimum at Diamond Hill. Similarity indices are low and not very different between sites with Diamond Hill being the exception with very few species. We suggest that terrestrial biodiversity best reflects microhabitat water availability rather than macroclimatic temperature changes and use climate data from Taylor Valley and Diamond Hill to support this suggestion. We propose that the importance of microhabitats and landscape location is one of several possible limitations to the application of bioclimatic modeling along the Ross sea coastline. In the absence of a definitive link between macroclimate and the biota, predicting the effects of climate changes will be more challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drastic changes in river discharge and salinity levels are threatening the phenology and morphology of the coastal mangrove forests of the Sundarbans of Bangladesh. We have used AVHRR GIMMS (1985-2006) and MODIS (2005-2010) satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to identify the temporal variation of the phenology of the mangroves. Linear interpolation and Fourier-based adjustment were applied to remove noise from the NDVI time series. Then linear regression analysis on a single area (8 km ✕ 8 km) and a composite of 36 areas for three NDVI statistics the annual minimum, annual average, and annual maximum were performed--over the time periods 1985-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2006 and 2005-2010 to identify possible functional changes in NDVI time series around the Sundarbans. Furthermore, we used fourteen LANDSAT images spanning the period 1989-2010 to estimate the spatiotemporal rate of shoreline changes over the three time periods 1989-2000, 2000-2006, and 2006-2010. A decreasing trend in the annual minimum NDVI was observed in most of the areas of the Sundarbans for the period 1990-2000. During the years 2000-2006, the trends of the three NDVI statistics became significantly positive, indicating an improvement of the mangrove phenology. In the period 2005-2010, a decreasing trend in all the NDVI variables was again dominant. The coast underwent rapid erosion from 1989-2000 and 2006-2010. However, the rate substantially declined between 2000 and 2006, when accretion was dominant. The advent of the upstream Farakka barrage caused a significant reduction in the Ganges-Gorai River discharge and increased the salinity in and around the Sundarbans. Our study concludes that this may be responsible for the degradation of mangrove phenology and accelerated erosion in the earlier and recent periods. In the interim, 2000-2006, improved river discharge and salinity levels due to the Ganges water sharing agreement (1996) and dredging of the Gorai River bed (1998-1999) enhanced the mangrove phenology and helped the coast to gain land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different spatial interpolation techniques have been applied to construct objective bioclimatic maps of La Palma, Canary Islands. Interpolation of climatic data on this topographically complex island with strong elevation and climatic gradients represents a challenge. Furthermore, meteorological stations are not evenly distributed over the island, with few stations at high elevations. We carried out spatial interpolations of the compensated thermicity index (Itc) and the annual ombrothermic Index (Io), in order to obtain appropriate bioclimatic maps by using automatic interpolation procedures, and to establish their relation to potential vegetation units for constructing a climatophilous potential natural vegetation map (CPNV). For this purpose, we used five interpolation techniques implemented in a GIS: inverse distance weighting (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), ordinary cokriging (OCK), multiple linear regression (MLR) and MLR followed by ordinary kriging of the regression residuals. Two topographic variables (elevation and aspect), derived from a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), were included in OCK and MLR. The accuracy of the interpolation techniques was examined by the results of the error statistics of test data derived from comparison of the predicted and measured values. Best results for both bioclimatic indices were obtained with the MLR method with interpolation of the residuals showing the highest R of the regression between observed and predicted values and lowest values of root mean square errors. MLR with correction of interpolated residuals is an attractive interpolation method for bioclimatic mapping on this oceanic island since it permits one to fully account for easily available geographic information but also takes into account local variation of climatic data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate plays a crucial role in controlling vegetation distribution and climate change may therefore cause extended changes. A coupled biogeography and biogeochemistry model called BIOME4 was modified by redefining the bioclimatic limits of key plant function types on the basis of the regional vegetation-climate relationships in China. Compared to existing natural vegetation distribution, BIOME4 is proven more reliable in simulating the overall vegetation distribution in China. Possible changes in vegetation distribution were simulated under climate change scenarios by using the improved model. Simulation results suggest that regional climate change would result in dramatic changes in vegetation distribution. Climate change may increase the areas covered by tropical forests, warm-temperate forests, savannahs/dry woodlands and grasslands/dry shrublands, but decrease the areas occupied by temperate forests, boreal forests, deserts, dry tundra and tundra across China. Most vegetation in east China, specifically the boreal forests and the tropical forests, may shift their boundaries northwards. The tundra and dry tundra on the Tibetan Plateau may be progressively confined to higher elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presented is the review of the indices of weather condition comfort that are most frequently used in biometeorology. Described are practical and laboratory experiments carried out by the authors that helped deriving formulae for their computation as well as the limits of applicability of these indices. To assess the impact of changing weather conditions and their aggregate (biometeorological indices) on population health in different seasons, the data of medical statistics were used: on daily mortality of heart attacks in Murmansk (2001-2004), on daily mortality of coronary heart disease in Moscow (2007-2010), and on daily ambulance calls with the essential hypertension diagnosis in Kislovodsk (2006-2008). Determined are the indices having significant correlation with the data of medical statistics. Using the method of cross-correlation analysis of the daily series of ambulance calls and deaths, it was possible to identify the period of the response of the human organism with cardiovascular diseases to changing weather conditions during the warm and cold seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Avocado is the largest cash crop exported by Mexico, and the state of Michoacán is its largest producer. For the further development of avocado plantations, the optimal edaphic and bioclimatic conditions for this crop should be determined. We performed a review of the literature to find out the requirements of the avocado for soil and climatic conditions and analyzed the maps, soil databases, and data from local weather stations in the studied region for developing scales of suitability of soils and climates for avocado growing. To verify these scales, a method of data mining was applied; a decision tree developed by this method confirmed the high accuracy and adequacy of the suggested grouping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Better understanding of urban microclimate and bioclimate of any city is imperative today when the world is constrained by both urbanisation and global climate change. Urbanisation generally triggers changes in land cover and hence influencing the urban local climate. Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania is one of the fast growing cities. Assessment of its urban climate and the human biometeorological conditions was done using the easily available synoptic meteorological data covering the period 2001-2011. In particular, the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated using the RayMan software and results reveal that the afternoon period from December to February (DJF season) is relatively the most thermal stressful period to human beings in Dar es Salaam where PET values of above 35 °C were found. Additionally, the diurnal cycle of the individual meteorological elements that influence the PET index were analysed and found that air temperature of 30-35 °C dominate the afternoon period from 12:00 to 15:00 hours local standard time at about 60 % of occurrence. The current results, though considered as preliminary to the ongoing urban climate study in the city, provide an insight on how urban climate research is of significant importance in providing useful climatic information for ensuring quality of life and wellbeing of city dwellers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]