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This paper summarises key issues from papers included in a special issue about the impacts of climate change on Australian wetlands. The papers covered: the assessment of wetlands under climate change, adaptation and engineering responses to climate change, and restoring wetlands under a changing climate. The key issues from these papers were used to indicate areas where the Ramsar Convention could develop guidance as part of its' Handbooks for the Wise Use of Wetlands. These included: (i) assessing changes in the distribution of species and whether these constitute a change in the ecological character of the wetland; (ii) assessing the usefulness of models of wetland response to climate change; (iii) assessing the value in allocating water to protected sites where restoration would be contingent on reallocation of larger volumes of water; (iv) assessing the efficacy of engineering responses with the potential to deliver more water-efficient environmental outcomes for wetlands and (v) determining if the description of the ecological character of a Ramsar site at the time of listing is a suitable reference for management purposes. With these issues in mind it is recommended that further attention is directed towards determining and responding to the ecological consequences of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In January 2011, Brisbane, Australia, experienced its first significant flooding in almost four decades. This paper presents the results of a questionnaire conducted in four affected inner western suburbs 7 months after the flood. These locations were specifically chosen as the residents within these communities come from a range of demographic, social, and economic backgrounds. The research utilised a mixed methods approach involving a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. This paper examines residents' experience of the flood, their thoughts on risk reduction and insurance, what factors helped or hindered response and adaptation to flood risk, and how to articulate shared responsibility for reducing flood risk. Assessing gender, age, income, and previous flood experience, it finds that those with previous flood experience were more likely to have flood insurance but less likely to have taken precautions to prepare for the flood. While almost three-quarters of respondents said they were aware of the flood risk when they moved to the area, they were nonetheless surprised by and largely unprepared for the 2011 flood. The implications of these findings for future flood risk reduction are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments. Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases, a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards. This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity. Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia, adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks, there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded) with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South East Queensland's (SEQ's) centralised electricity system is under great pressure to adapt. Climate change is converging with socio-economic, demographic and technological changes to create a 'perfect storm' for the region's electricity system. Distribution networks are particularly affected, with these factors contributing to tremendous peak demand growth, about double the rate of growth in average demand in recent years. This paper reviews how Australia's electricity system is adapting to multiple drivers of peak electricity demand. We use socio-technical transitions theory to understand the temporal interconnected social and technical dimensions of adaptation in this setting. Specifically, we present an historical narrative of the emergence of centralisation in Australia and outline the peak demand problem in SEQ and review adaptation options from the international literature. We also analyse the interactions between key social groups and their adaptation responses over the past decade. Our analysis shows that adaptation has become a contested process between supply-chain actors and end-users, each with different economic objectives, adaptation needs and capacities. The resulting adaptation dynamic that is emerging shows worrying signs of maladaptation. Implications for market governance and urban policy and research are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of various adaptation options is dependent on the capacity to plan, design and implement them. Understanding the determinants of adaptive capacity is, therefore, crucial for effective responses to climate change. This paper offers an assessment of adaptive capacity across a range of sectors in South East Queensland, Australia. The paper has four parts, including (1) an overview of adaptive capacity, in particular as a learning process; (2) a description of the various methods used to determine adaptive capacity; (3) a synthesis of the determinants of adaptive capacity; and (4) the identification of mechanisms to build adaptive capacity in the region. We conclude that the major issue impacting adaptive capacity is not the availability of physical resources but the dominant social, political and institutional culture of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research that projects biophysical changes under climate change is more advanced than research that projects socio-economic changes. There is a need in adaptation planning for informed socio-economic projections as well as analysis of how these changes may exacerbate or reduce vulnerability. Our focus in this paper is on the delivery of time-sensitive socio-economic information that can better support anticipatory adaptation planning approaches. Using a ‘multiple lines of evidence’ approach based on Australian Bureau of Statistics’ data (2010/2011), we examine the socio-economic vulnerability of the grazing sector located on Australia’s east coast. We profile the east coast grazing sector through an overview of the composition of its workforce and the value of grazing commodities produced. We then assess the potential vulnerability of the grazing sector using spatial snapshots of five factors known to shape socio-economic vulnerability in New South Wales and Queensland: (1) reliance on agriculture, (2) geographic remoteness, (3) socio-economic disadvantage, (4) economic diversity and (5) age. Our assessment of the east coast grazing sector reveals six subregions characterised by high potential socio-economic vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. We find high percentages of labour forces employed in agriculture, geographic remoteness and age (high percentages of owner/managers and employees in younger age groups) to be drivers of vulnerability. Finally, we evaluate the ways in which these vulnerabilities may be exacerbated or reduced in light of emerging environmental, economic and social trends. This approach complements demographic projection methods to deliver time-sensitive socio-economic information to support anticipatory adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite there being considerable research and knowledge surrounding the risks of climate change on agricultural productivity, fewer studies have examined risks from a whole-of-chain perspective (i.e. from producer to consumer) and the perceptions of consumers about the climate adaptation strategies of food businesses. This paper presents the findings of a survey of 1532 Australian consumers and how they might respond to a food company's climate adaptation strategy. Three respondent archetypes, ' Eco-warriors' ( n = 557), ' Undecideds' ( n = 600) and ' Abdicators' ( n = 375), were identified based on their perceptions of risks associated with climate change and their attitudes towards climate adaptation. Further analysis was carried out to understand how each group of respondents would respond to adaptation strategies employed by food companies. Based on the findings of this study, two main challenges are presented for food value chains: (1) translating consumer needs and preferences to niche opportunities arising from adaptation and (2) understanding how best to communicate adaptation benefits based on varying attitudes and information needs. By addressing these challenges, synergies between adaptation goals and competitive strategies in food value chains may be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban planning has the potential to be a powerful tool for facilitating efficient and equitable adaptation to climate change-related coastal hazards ('coastal climate hazards'). However, if urban planning measures are poorly designed or implemented, it can increase costs and vulnerability, and unfairly affect the interests of particular groups. Through a case study on the coastal climate hazard planning framework in Victoria, Australia, this paper aims to illustrate how urban planning measures can lead to maladaptation and draw lessons for the future design and implementation of planning responses. Five main policy lessons are drawn from the case study. First, planning frameworks should encourage the adoption of robust approaches that are as insensitive to the uncertainties associated with coastal climate hazards as possible. Secondly, policy makers need to be mindful of the opportunity costs and equity implications of planning responses. Thirdly, to be sustainable, planning responses must be robust to social and political factors, something that can be achieved through the use of flexible approaches that allow continued use and development of land but on conditions that protect the interests of governments and communities. Fourthly, policy makers need to be mindful of transaction costs. Finally, when devolving planning responsibilities to lower levels of government, policy makers need to ensure that the objectives of planning frameworks are clear, there is minimal ambiguity in decision guidelines, and that the resourcing and capacity constraints of planning bodies are appropriately considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty around long-term droughts and water scarcity has been increasing as the impacts of El Nino cycles are felt globally. Understanding how the effects of these events are manifested on the ground in communities is particularly important if governments and associated agencies are to respond appropriately. Using a qualitative approach, this paper examines the impacts of drought on two rural towns in Victoria, Australia, and explores what lessons can be drawn from local experiences. The research suggests that previous responses to drought by governments have been largely ineffectual and as such, we question whether there is a need to reshape institutional understandings of what adapting to drought might mean. This research, therefore, seeks to further the discussion surrounding drought impacts and the myriad of challenges associated with it by drawing on locally situated knowledge to inform future decision-making in this evolving field of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant number of university students are leaving their institutions before completing their degrees. The present research project applied embeddedness theory, from organizational research, to understand student retention in a tertiary student population, and develop a quantitative instrument that measured university student embeddedness. In Study One, a mixed-methods approach was employed to determine whether the Fit (similarity between the student and the university), Links (count of relationships at university), and Sacrifice (losses upon leaving university) dimensions of embeddedness related to students' self-reported reasons for remaining enrolled at their university. Qualitative results from 15 undergraduate students indicated that intent to remain could be understood within the embeddedness dimensions of Fit, Links, and Sacrifice. These themes were employed to build the University Student Embeddedness (USE) scale. The measure was examined against Rasch measurement model assumptions for each of its subscales using data collected from 299 Australian tertiary students. Study Two sought to examine exploratory evidence of the concurrent validity of the scores from this developed measure. Responses from a separate sample of 196 Australian tertiary students showed only the Fit scale significantly related to student intentions to stay at university. All USE scales correlated with academic-related skills and motivations. These results suggest that the Fit scale may be valuable in identifying students at risk of dropout. Early identification of "at risk" students may lead to the development of targeted retention interventions. However, the USE's role in detection requires further validation and the development of consistent findings within other student cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian house gecko (Hemidactylus frenatus) is a tropical invasive species that has established and spread throughout several temperate regions around the world. In some invasive species, rapid thermal acclimation (thermal hardening) may contribute to their success in occupying a wide range of climates. In this study, we investigated whether invasive house geckos from southeastern Australia show differing thermal hardening responses than individuals from the native range in Thailand. In the laboratory, we measured the basal heat tolerance (CTmax) of the geckos and their heat hardening response after being subjected to the second thermal stress after 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, or 11 h. When geckos had recovered, we measured their basal cold tolerance (CTmin) and cold hardening response over the same time intervals. We then explored whether hardening responses differed between populations or among time intervals. We found that basal heat tolerances did not differ between populations, but geckos from Australia had lower cold tolerance than geckos from Thailand. The magnitude of the heat hardening was similar between populations, but the introduced geckos had a higher magnitude of cold hardening. The native geckos could maximize their cold tolerance capacity for only 0.6 °C, versus 0.9 °C for the introduced geckos. Also, geckos from Australia exhibited faster responses to thermal stress than did geckos from Thailand. Maximum thermal tolerances as a result of hardening responses peaked within three hours after thermal stress in Australian geckos (adjusted means = 44.0 °C for CTmax and 9.9 °C for CTmin) and at five hours after thermal stress in Thailand geckos (adjusted means = 44.2 °C and 10.2 °C, respectively). The plasticity in the thermal hardening of the invasive gecko should enable it to survive rapid temperature fluctuations, especially winter cold snaps that occur in temperate regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large component of the anthropogenic biodiversity crisis is the loss of animal species. In response, there has been significant investment in reintroductions of species to their historical ranges. Predation by native and exotic predators, however, remains a barrier to success. Over the past 200 years, Australia has seen the highest rate of mammal extinction on earth, with mammals within a critical weight range (CWR: 35 g–5.5 kg) most affected due to predation by exotic predators. Populations of some threatened species now exist only in Tasmania, offshore islands, or predator-proof sanctuaries. The next critical step is to return native populations outside of predator-free areas, 'beyond-the-fence', on the continental mainland. Given our current inability to completely remove exotic predators from mainland ecosystems, how can we achieve successful mammal reintroductions? A potential solution is to drive adaptation of reintroduced animals towards predator-resistance by exposing them to low levels of predation. We propose the concept of a 'Goldilocks Zone'—the 'just right' levels of predation needed to drive selection for predator-resistant native species, while ensuring population viability. We experimentally reintroduced a mammal, the eastern bettong (Bettongia gaimardi), to mainland Australia, 100 years after its local extinction. Using an intense baiting regime, we reduced the population density of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), the main factor behind the eastern bettong's extirpation from the continent. Reducing bait take to 15% of previous levels allowed differential survival among bettongs; some surviving under 100 days and others over 450 (~ 4 times longer than some similar trials with related species). Surviving individuals were generally larger at release than those that died earlier, implying selection for larger bettongs. Our results suggest that reducing predation could establish a Goldilocks Zone that could drive selection for bettongs with predator-resistant traits. Our work contributes to a growing body of literature that explores a shift towards harnessing evolutionary principles to combat the challenges posed by animal management and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of its negative effect on health, aflatoxin has become one of the most important mycotoxins in the world. As climate stress is one of the main triggers of aflatoxin incidence, climate change could affect its geographic distribution. The primary aim of this study was to examine the effect of climate change on the future distribution of aflatoxin in peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) crops in Australia. The projected distributions in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 were modelled by employing the CLIMEX (CLIMatic indEX) model using two global climate models (GCMs), i.e. CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H based on SRES A2 and SRES A1B climate scenarios. This study has successfully developed CLIMEX model parameters for aflatoxin and confirmed the climatic zone preference of aflatoxin incidence, as concluded by other studies. Therefore, the model parameters are applicable in all parts of the world. The projection results in Australia confirm that climate change affects the future distribution of aflatoxin, including the distribution in the current peanut-growing areas. Shifts in aflatoxin invasion areas from the tropical and subtropical climate zones of the eastern part of Australia to the temperate climate zones of the south-eastern and south-western parts of the country were projected by 2100. Thus, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to overcome the negative impacts in the future. Options for these measures include relocation of planting areas, development of host-plant resistance, proper agricultural practices, and mitigation actions by using physical, chemical, and biological approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gambling-related harm results primarily from financial losses. Internationally Australia continues to rank as the largest spending nation per capita on gambling products. This would suggest that Australian gamblers are at disproportionately high risk of harm despite almost two decades of industry scrutiny and regulation, and investment in research, treatment and education programs. However, declines in participation rates, per capita expenditure, household expenditure, national disposable income spent on gambling and problem gambling rates have been cited as evidence that fewer people are gambling, that gamblers are spending less, and that gambling safety in Australia has improved. The current study investigated these propositions using national population and accounts data, and statistics from Australia's two population-representative gambling surveys conducted in 1997-1998 and 2010-2011. Despite a falling participation rate the study found no real change in the number of people gambling overall, and increasing numbers consuming casino table games, race wagering and sports betting. Further found were increases rather than decreases in average gambler expenditure, overall, and across most products, particularly electronic gaming machines (EGMs). Potentially risky levels of average expenditure were observed in both periods, overall and for race wagering, casino table gaming, and EGMs. Changes in the proportion of income spent on gambling suggest risks declined overall and for race wagering and casino table gaming, but increased for EGMs. Finally, while problem gambling statistics were not comparable between periods, the study found double the number of moderate risk gamblers previously estimated for 2010-2011 amongst the 2 million Australians found to have experienced one or more gambling-related problems. The findings have implications for public health policy and resourcing, and the way in which prevalence and expenditure statistics have been interpreted by researchers, government and industry in Australia and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Documented impacts of climate change on marine systems indicate widespread changes in many geographic regions and throughout all levels of the ocean's food webs. Oceans provide the main source of animal protein for over a billion people, and contribute significantly to food security for billions more. Clearly, if we are to continue to derive these benefits, then the rate of adaptation in our human systems needs to at least keep pace with the rate of ecological change for these benefits to continue. An Australia-wide program of research into marine biodiversity and fisheries explored the opportunities for policy and management to respond to a changing climate. The research program spanned all Australian estuarine-nearshore and marine environments-tropical, subtropical, and temperate-and focused on two key marine sectors: biodiversity conservation and fisheries (commercial, recreational, and aquaculture). Key findings from across this strategic and extensive research investment were the need to foster resilience through habitat repair and protection, improve resource allocation strategies, fine-tune fisheries management systems, and enhance whole of government approaches and policies. Building on these findings, from a climate adaptation perspective, we generated a checklist of thirteen elements encompassing all project findings to assess and steer progress towards improving marine policy and management. These elements are grouped in three broad areas: preconditioning; future proofing; and transformational changes and opportunities. Arising from these elements is a suite of priority strategies that provide guidance for marine managers, policy practitioners, and stakeholders as they prepare for a future under climate change. As the research program encompassed a wide range of habitats and ecosystems, spanned a latitudinal range of over 30°, and considered a diversity of management systems and approaches, many of these elements and strategies will be applicable in a global context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated pest management in Australian winter grain crops is challenging, partly because the timing and severity of pest outbreaks cannot currently be predicted, and this often results in prophylactic applications of broad spectrum pesticides. We developed a simple model to predict the median emergence in autumn of pest populations of the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor, a major field crop and pasture pest in southern Australia. Previous data and observations suggest that rainfall and temperature are critical for post-diapause egg hatch. We evaluated seven models that combined rainfall and temperature thresholds derived using three approaches against previously recorded hatch dates and 2013 field records. The performance of the models varied between Western Australia and south-eastern Australian States. In Western Australia, the key attributes of the best fitting model were more than 5 mm rain followed by mean day temperatures of below 20.5 °C for 10 days. In south-eastern Australia, the most effective model involved a temperature threshold reduced to 16 °C. These regional differences may reflect adaptation of H. destructor in south-eastern Australia to varied and uncertain temperature and rainfall regimes of late summer and autumn, relative to the hot and dry Mediterranean-type climate in Western Australia. Field sampling in 2013 revealed a spread of early hatch dates in isolated patches of habitat, ahead of predicted paddock scale hatchings. These regional models should assist in monitoring and subsequent management of H. destructor at the paddock scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While many scientific assessments have been recommending general strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change, translation of these recommendations into specific actions and practice has been limited. Focusing on two biomes, rainforest and wetlands in biodiverse South East Queensland, Australia, we demonstrate how general principles can be translated into specific actions for stakeholders and responsible agencies. We synthesize research that is contextualizing protection of refugia and habitat connectivity, establishing baseline data sets to detect change and developing strategic conservation planning scenarios to adjust reserve boundaries or situate new reserves. This has been achieved by coupling spatial information on biological assets (i.e. ecosystems and species) with future climate scenarios and process models to anticipate movement of critical habitats. Conservation planning software is also being used to prioritize investment to meet specific objectives. This approach is enabling us to identify at-risk biological assets, opportunities to ameliorate threats and obstacles to delivering regional adaptation actions. A larger total reserved area is needed, with proactive planning to capture areas further inland and along watercourses. Major obstacles include conflict between urbanization and priorities for habitat conservation and the need for greater levels of investment for monitoring programmes and to protect landward shifted wetlands on private land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2–3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting ‘limited’ and ‘ideal’ ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data on 386 species with fire-stimulated flowering (fsf) in Australasia and South Africa/Madagascar were collated to show that they occur under a wide range of fire regimes, with 71% confined to the mediterranean-climate regions. About 40% only flower up to 2 years after fire (obligate), while the rest continue at a low rate until the next fire (facultative). Peak flowering occurs 5-18 months after fire in the mediterranean regions but at 1-7 months in savannas. Fsf is recorded in 34 families, headed by terrestrial orchids (45% of species), spread throughout the seed-plant phylogeny from cycads to daisies. Tuberous geophytes (essentially orchids) dominate (51%), but other resprouting growth forms include lignotuberous shrubs and forbs, rhizomatous and bunch grasses, leaf succulents, grasstrees, epicormic trees, and hemiparasites. Most have wind-dispersed diaspores (72%), store their diaspores in the soil (93%), and seeds that do not germinate until the next fire (72%). Fsf in association with resprouting takes advantage of optimal resources and minimal competition for growth and reproduction, conditions that favor wind dispersal and maximize the interval for seed accumulation before the next fire and build-up of fire-tolerant organs. Reduced herbivory has little role in accounting for its benefits. The proximal causes of fsf center around cueing factors (direct effects such as ethylene), resource factors (direct and indirect effects, e.g., extra nutrients), and predisposing factors (circumstantial effects, e.g., fire interval). The evolutionary history of fsf has been explored recently in orchids, proteas, blood roots, droseras, and mistletoes and shown to stretch back over a period of at least 50 million years, indicating that flowering in many groups has a long association with fire as an agent of natural selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential environmental suitability and economic viability of growing two biodiesel crops in marginal regions of Australia were explored. Firstly, we used spatial analysis techniques to identify marginal agricultural regions suitable for growing pongam ( Pongamia pinnata) and Indian mustard ( Brassica juncea), and determined the base socioeconomic viability of investments for the production of biodiesel in the identified areas. Secondly, we used climate change projections (target years 2020 to 2070) from the Commonwealth Scientific, Industrial and Research Organization Mk3.0 global circulation model generated for two emission scenarios (A1B and A1FI) to determine the shift in potential areas for these crops. Under the climate change scenarios tested, the total area suitable for growing pongam between 2040 and 2070 is substantially different from the suitable area under current climate, indicating that long-term investments in this perennial tree crop may not be viable in all regions, especially in southern Australia. There is a greater variation in suitability projections for Indian mustard, although there is more flexibility for cropping options given that it is an annual crop. However, future economic viability is likely to depend on the ability to receive renewable energy certificates for both crops and, in the case of pongam, the certified emission reductions. Opportunities exist for sustainable pongam agroforestry to supply biodiesel to regional towns, cattle stations and mines in northern Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly at a range of geo-political scales. This first generation of adaptation plans provides useful information regarding how institutions are framing the issue of adaptation and the range of processes that are recognized as being part of an adaptation response. To better understand adaptation planning among developed nations, a set of 57 adaptation plans from Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States was evaluated against a suite of 19 planning processes identified from existing guidance instruments for adaptation planning. Total scores among evaluated plans ranged from 16% of the maximum possible score to 61%, with an average of 37%. These results suggest adaptation plans are largely under-developed. Critical weaknesses in adaptation planning are related to limited consideration for non-climatic factors as well as neglect for issues of adaptive capacity including entitlements to various forms of capital needed for effective adaptation. Such gaps in planning suggest there are opportunities for institutions to make better use of existing guidance for adaptation planning and the need to consider the broader governance context in which adaptation will occur. In addition, the adaptation options prescribed by adaptation plans reflect a preferential bias toward low-risk capacity-building (72% of identified options) over the delivery of specific actions to reduce vulnerability. To the extent these findings are representative of the state of developed nation adaptation planning, there appear to be significant deficiencies in climate change preparedness, even among those nations often assumed to have the greatest adaptive capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to integrate scientific knowledge from a variety of disciplines with local experience to describe, contextually and in detail, the impact of flood events on the community of the Alpine Shire and current mitigation efforts to alleviate and reduce these impacts. The Myrtleford Floodplain Management Study was the cornerstone of the strategy to address the goal of reducing flood damage in the community. It was found that the most consequential deficiencies in the Myrtleford flood mitigation scheme decision process are related to flaws in four elements of the process: the articulation of goals; the development of appropriate knowledge support; the effectiveness of promotion; and the ability to move from invocation to application. The Alpine Shire can be used as a microcosm that can represent adaptation challenges in other communities to climate change and extreme events. This research contributes to the development of the conceptual and analytical framework of integrated assessments, while making concrete contributions to the development of adaptive policies in Alpine Shire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making elementof adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economicoperating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occurring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimatelya social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect,background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]