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Much research shows academic self-concept and achievement are reciprocally related over time, based on traditional longitudinal data cross-lag-panel models (CLPM) supporting a reciprocal effects model (REM). However, recent research has challenged CLPM's appropriateness, arguing that CLPMs with random intercepts (RI-CLPMs) provide a more robust (within-person) perspective and better control for unmeasured covariates. However, there is much confusion in educational-psychology research concerning appropriate research questions and interpretations of RI-CLPMs and CLPMs. To clarify this confusion, we juxtapose CLPMs and RI-CLPMs relating math self-concept (MSCs), school grades, and achievement tests over the five years of compulsory secondary schooling (N = 3,425). We extend basic models to evaluate: directional ordering among three rather than only two constructs; longitudinal invariance over time (multiple school years) and multiple groups (school tracks); lag-2 paths between non-adjacent waves; and covariates (gender, primary-school math and verbal achievement). Across all basic and extended RI-CLPMs and CLPMs, there was consistent support for the REM bidirectional-ordering hypothesis that self-concept and achievement are each a cause and an effect of the other. Consistent with the logic of these models, extensions of the basic models had more effect on CLPMs, but the direction and statistical significance of cross-lagged paths were largely unaffected for both RI-CLPMs and CLPMs. This substantive-methodological synergy has important implications for theory, methodology, and policy/practice; we support the importance of MSC as a predictor of subsequent achievement and demonstrate a more robust methodological framework for evaluating longitudinal-panel models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-wave-cross-lagged-panel models (CLPMs) of directional ordering are a focus of much controversy in educational psychology and more generally. Extending traditional analyses, methodologists have recently argued for including random intercepts and lag2 effects between non-adjacent waves and giving more attention to controlling covariates. However, the related issues of appropriate time intervals between waves (lag1 intervals across waves) and the possibility of contemporaneous (lag0) effects within each wave are largely unresolved. Although philosophers, theologians, and scientists widely debate sequential (lagged) and simultaneous (lag0) theories of causality, CLPM researchers have mostly ignored contemporaneous effects, arguing causes must precede effects. In a substantive-methodological synergy, we integrated these issues and designed new structural equation models to reanalyze one of the strongest CLPM studies of academic self-concept (ASC) and achievement (five annuals of mathematics data; 3527 secondary school students). A taxonomy of models incorporating various combinations of lag0, lag1, and lag2 effects, random intercepts, and covariates consistently supported a priori reciprocal effect model (REM) predictions—medium or large reciprocal effects of ASC and achievement on each other. Consistent with self-concept theory, effects of ASC on achievement evolved over time (lag1, not lag0 effects), whereas effects of achievement on ASC effects were more contemporaneous (lag0, not lag1 effects). We argue that lag0 effects reflect proximal events occurring subsequent to the previous data wave, suggesting the need for shorter intervals but also leaving open the possibility of contemporaneous effects that are truly instantaneous. We discuss limitations and future directions but also note the broad applicability of our statistical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The big-fish-little-pond effect (BFLPE), the negative effect of school-/class-average achievement on academic self-concept, is one of educational psychology's most universal findings. However, critiques of this research have proposed moderators based on achievement motivation theories. Nevertheless, because these motivational theories are not sufficiently well-developed to provide unambiguous predictions concerning moderation of the BFLPE and underlying social comparison processes, we developed a Theory-Integrating Approach; bringing together a panel of experts, independently making theoretical predictions, revising the predictions over several rounds based on independent feedback from the other experts, and a summary of results. We pit a priori hypotheses derived from achievement motivation theories against the more parsimonious a priori prediction that there is no moderation based on previous BFLPE empirical research and Darwinian-economic theory (N = 1,925 Hong Kong students, 47 classes, M age = 12 years). Consistent with both BFLPE research and Darwinian perspectives, but in contrast to achievement motivation theory predictions, the highly significant BFLPE was not moderated by any of the following: prior achievement, expectancy-value theory variables, achievement goals, implicit theories of ability, self-regulated learning strategies, and social interdependence theory measures. Although we cannot "prove" that there are no student-level moderators of the BFLPE, our synthesis of social comparison posited in the BFLPE theory and an evolutionary perspective support BFLPE's generalizability. We propose further integration of our Theory-Integrating Approach with traditional Delphi methods, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches to develop a priori theoretical predictions and identify limitations in existing theory as an alternative form of systematic review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]