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In the midsummer of 2022, a rare regional high-temperature event occurred in the Yangtze River Basin. Chongqing, as the center of this event, also experienced its strongest high temperature since 1961. In this paper, the characteristics of this event in Chongqing are reviewed in detail and compared with those of 2006. We have confirmed the following conclusions with detailed data: (1) In the midsummer of 2022, the number of days that the daily maximum temperature is exceeding 35 ℃ in Chongqing was the most since 1961, with the number of days that the daily maximum temperature above 40 ℃ increasing significantly compared with 2006. (2) The impact range of this event in Chongqing was quite extensive, especially the range with the daily maximum temperature exceeding 40 ℃ was the widest since 1961. (3) The high-temperature event was more extreme in 2022 than that in 2006. The maximum of daily maximum temperature was 45 ℃, and this is the first time that China has recorded a high temperature of 45 ℃ outside Turpan. There were 5 stations with daily maximum temperature exceeding 44 ℃, accounting for 1/3 of the number of stations with such temperature (15 stations) in China. (4) In the midsummer of 2022, Chongqing was dominated by the compound high-temperature day. Compared with 2006, the daytime high-temperature day decreased significantly, while the compound one increased obviously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China underwent normal precipitation during the classical Meiyu period in June–July but suffered extreme precipitation and severe floods in August. The present study revealed that the extreme heavy precipitation anomalies over the YHRB region were closely related to the combined effect of the strong western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) and East Asian middle–high latitude circulation anomalies in August 2021. Moreover, the background of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was a strong eastern-Pacific La Niña event that rapidly decayed in spring and a second La Niña emerged in late summer, accompanied by a weak tropical Indian Ocean warming and a strong tropical Atlantic warming in summer. The rapidly decaying La Niña event and the weak tropical Indian Ocean warming alone seem to be insufficient to induce the strong WNPAC in August 2021. Observational evidence and numerical experiments suggest that the rapid tropical Atlantic warming from late spring to summer observably contributed to the enhancement and westward shift of the WNPAC, and the cold SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific associated with the second La Niña event also provided favorable conditions for a strong WNPAC in August 2021. Overall, rapid tropical Atlantic warming and the development of the second La Niña contributed to the strong WNPAC in August 2021, while the maintenance mechanism of the East Asian middle–high latitude circulation anomalies that controlled cold air activity remains unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the spatial and temporal characteristics of convective precipitation (CP) and large-scale precipitation (LSP) in southern China during 1980–2020 are analyzed using monthly mean precipitation data from MERRA-2. In addition, the possible effects of relative humidity on CP and LSP are explored. The results indicate the following. (1) The LSP dominates the proportion of total precipitation (TP). Both LSP and CP are more prevalent in the south and less prevalent in the north, but there is a difference in the regions of their maximum centers. (2) Significant interannual and seasonal variations are observed in precipitation. TP and LSP tended to be higher than average after the 1990s, while for the CP, a significant negative trend has dominated the past ten years. There are significant increasing trends for TP and LSP, with area-averaged linear trends of 78.1 mm/decade and 85.9 mm/decade, respectively, while that of CP is − 17.1 mm/decade. The increasing trends of LSP are mainly contributed by the precipitation of summer and autumn. (3) The variations of LSP are affected by relative humidity in the troposphere, while CP is only influenced by the changes in relative humidity due to air temperature or specific humidity. The trend of relative humidity is − 0.33%/decade, mainly due to rising temperature in the troposphere. (4) Changes in relative humidity caused by temperature or specific humidity alone act on large-scale precipitation through both interannual and interdecadal processes, causing large-scale precipitation to increase, and the convective precipitation is mainly affected by the interdecadal processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China (NEC) is located between the subtropical monsoon and temperate-frigid monsoon regions and exhibits two successive rainy seasons with different natures: the northeast cold vortex rainy season in early summer (May–June) and the monsoon rainy season in late summer (July–August). Summer rainfall over NEC (NECR) has a fundamental influence on society, yet its successful seasonal prediction remains a long-term scientific challenge to current dynamical models. The poor NECR prediction skill is partly attributed to the large NECR variability at both the interannual and interdecadal time scales. Here, we focus on the oceanic drivers of the late summer NECR variability and associated physical processes at interannual time scale. Then, we establish an empirical prediction model to predict the interannual variability of summer NECR at 1-month lead time (in June). The analysis of observations spanning 40 years (1963–2002) reveals three physically and synergistically influencing predictors of the late summer NECR interannual variability. Above-normal NECR is preceded in the previous spring by (a) warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical northern Indian Ocean, (b) a positive thermal contrast tendency in the tropical West–East Pacific SST, and (c) a positive tendency of the North Atlantic tripolar SST. These precursors enhance the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific and southerly anomalies over NEC in late summer, which are beneficial to enhancing NECR. An empirical prediction model built on these three predictors achieves a forecast temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.72 for 1961–2019, and a 17-year (2003–2019) independent forecast shows a significant TCC skill of 0.70. The skill is substantially higher than that of five state-of-the-art dynamical models and their ensemble mean for 1979–2019 (TCC = 0.24). These results suggest that the proposed empirical model is a meaningful approach for the prediction of NECR, although the dynamical prediction of NECR has considerable room for improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961–2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extremely heavy snowfall event occurred in early winter (November–December) 2018 over the northeast of Tibetan Plateau (NTP), with snowfall amounts ranking the highest since 1961. It is necessary to better understand the causes and reveal the physical mechanism of this extreme snowfall event. In this article, the features of this extreme snowfall event and its possible linkage with atmospheric circulation anomalies, and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly effects are analyzed. The results show that in early winter 2018, (1) there was a similar Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern in the mid-latitudes with a periodic strengthening of the Siberian High, which favored northern cold airflow into the NTP, providing the suitable temperature conditions for snowfall. (2) Low-latitude meridional and mid-latitude zonal water vapor transport were both significantly greater than normal, causing much more water vapor flow than normal into the NTP region through the western and southern boundaries, leading to the second highest net water vapor input since 1961 and creating sufficient continuous water vapor conditions for extreme snowfall. (3) The baroclinicity and the instability of the atmospheric circulation, accompanied by abnormal cold and warm advection and vertical movement over the NTP, provided the dynamic atmospheric conditions for the snowfall event. (4) Under the background of warm El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event and the positive phase of the Tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) SST, the EU pattern initiated by the tele-influence of IOD mode dominated the midlatitude region across Eurasia continent. The positive anomalies of EU teleconnection over western Asia guided the heavy water vapor flow into the NTP through the western and southern boundaries, respectively. In addition, the effects of ENSO/IOD caused the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific to be dominated by anticyclones, creating more northward water vapor transport from the tropical region. Accordingly, sufficient water vapor flowed into the NTP along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, providing the moisture conditions for the severe snowfall event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is a major signal for prediction of summer precipitation in East Asia. The relationship between SSTA in the tropical oceans and summer precipitation in East Asia has been documented in many studies. However, the relationship between SSTA and late summer (July-August) precipitation (JAP) over Northeast China (NEC) on the interannual timescale has received little attention. In this study, we examine the relationship between Indian Ocean Basin warming (IOBW) anomalies in spring and the JAP in NEC since the early 1960s. A significant positive correlation is found between the spring IOBW index and JAP over NEC. The positive spring IOBW anomaly is followed by an anomalous anticyclone from Northwest Pacific to the Korean Peninsula. This anomalous anticyclone favors a significantly strong and northward western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which facilitates anomalous southerly winds over NEC and the transport of more water vapor into this region. Further analysis indicates that the spring IOBW anomalies have important impacts on the vertical air motion in the tropics and subtropics during the summer. Significant anomalous upward (downward) motion covering Indonesia (Northwest Pacific to the southern Korean Peninsula) occurs when the IOBW is in its positive phase, which favors the northward movement of the WPSH in late summer and more precipitation over NEC in July-August. Modulation of the atmospheric circulation by this mechanism further influences the JAP over NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed the anomalous characteristics of autumn rain in western China (ARWC) (26.2–36° N, 101.9–111.8° E) in 2017 and the related large-scale atmospheric circulations based on new monitoring indicators published by the China Meteorological Administration in 2015 and the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. We found that the characteristics of autumn rain in the southern (33–36° N, 101.9–111.8° E) and northern (26.2–33° N, 101.9–111.8° E) regions of the monitoring area were different. The onset date of autumn rain in the north (south) of the monitoring area in 2017 was 14 (16) days earlier than in normal years, which is in the 4th (4th) place since 1961. The end of the autumn rain was 5 days later (earlier) than in normal years. The autumn rain period was 54 (63) days long, 19 (11) days longer than in normal years. The autumn rainfall in the north (south) of the monitoring area was 234.1 (322.2) mm, 72.6% (74.4%) higher than that in normal years. The amount of autumn rain in the southern region is in the second place since 1965. The cause of this significantly early onset of the ARWC in 2017 was the advanced transition of the East Asian atmospheric circulation system from a summer pattern to a winter pattern. The westerly jet in the upper troposphere appeared about 10 days earlier than in normal years. The meridional circulation of a west-high and east-low pattern was observed in the mid- and lower troposphere in the mid- and high latitudes of Eurasia. This circulation configuration resulted in an early onset of the ARWC. As a result of the influence of the persistent warming of the Indian Ocean basin-wide mode from spring to summer, the west Pacific subtropical high was extremely strong (the second strongest since 1981) and its westernmost point was greatly extended to the west (the second greatest extension since 1981) during the autumn rain period. The intensity of the moisture flux from the southwest of the western Pacific subtropical high was stronger than usual and the low trough of Lake Baikal was also strong. Cold air from the north and the abundant warm, humid water vapor from the south converged in western China, resulting in more precipitation during the autumn rain period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the simultaneous atmospheric circulation system configuration characteristics of the four rainfall patterns (FRP) over the East China during the period 1951–2015 are analyzed in order to investigate their formation mechanisms. The results confirm that the FRP possess obvious differences in the upper-level, middle-level, and lower-level troposphere. In northern China rainfall pattern (NCP) years, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJS) shows a northward trend, with a higher intensity than normal; the blocking high (BH) in the mid-high latitudes is inactive; and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tends to be stronger, with a location to the north of its normal position. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is stronger, which promotes vapor transport to northern China, and this leads to increased rainfall. In intermediate rainfall pattern (IRP) years, the EAJS position is close to that in normal years; the BH is inactive; the WPSH tends to be weaker, with a location to the east of its normal position; and the EASM is stronger, which is conducive to increased rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin. In Yangtze River rainfall pattern (YRP) years, the circulations are found to be almost opposite in their features to those in NCP years. In South China rainfall pattern (SCP) years, the circulations are found to be almost opposite in their features to those in IRP years. This leads to increased rainfall over South China. Therefore, the different circulation system configuration characteristics lead to the different rainfall patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the summer rainfall patterns in the East China monsoon region during 1951-2015 were objectively classified into four typical categories: the northern China rainfall pattern (NCP), the intermediate rainfall pattern (IRP), the Yangtze River rainfall pattern (YRP), and the South China rainfall pattern (SCP). The periods of the four patterns show significant decadal characteristics. The NCP occurred mainly between the late 1950s and the early 1980s, and the IRP in the late 1950s to the early 1970s and the 2000s. The YRP occurred mainly between the 1980s and the 1990s, and the SCP between the mid-1990s and the early 21st century. The relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASM I ) and the four rainfall patterns was comparatively analyzed. The results confirmed that the four rainfall patterns have obvious differences in the EASM. In the NCP, IRP, or SCP years, the EASM I primarily showed a positive phase and a strong summer monsoon; in the YRP years, the EASM I primarily showed a negative phase and a weak summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU) is an important low-frequency pattern with well-known impacts on climate anomalies in Eurasia. The difference of low-level v-winds in several regions in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes is defined as the EU index (EUI). In this study, the relationship between the winter EUI and precipitation in the following summer over China is investigated. Results show that there is a significant positive (negative) correlation between the winter EUI and the following summer precipitation over North China (the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins). Meanwhile, an interdecadal variability exists in the interannual relationship, and the correlation has become significantly enhanced since the early 1980s. Thus, the proposed EUI may have implications for the prediction of summer precipitation anomalies over China. In positive winter EUI years, three cyclonic circulation anomalies are observed-over the Ural Mountains, the Okhotsk Sea, and the subtropical western North Pacific. That is, the Ural blocking and Okhotsk blocking are inactive, zonal circulation prevails in the mid-high latitudes, and the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be weaker and locates to the north of its normal position in the following summer. This leads to above-normal moisture penetrating into the northern part of East China, and significant positive (negative) precipitation anomalies over North China (the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins), and vice versa. Further examination shows that the SST anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and subtropical central North Pacific may both contribute to the formation of EUI-related circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the 1983∼2011 CMAP data, the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions (hereafter called East Asia for short) demonstrates the '+−+' pattern before 1999 and the '−+−' pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component. However, the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different, which reveal the '+−+−' pattern before 1999 and the '−+−+' pattern afterwards. Meanwhile, the probability of improving NCC_CGCM's forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed, and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia. The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM's decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia (especially in the area of 30°N-55°N). The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area, and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas, which are better than NCC_CGCM's system error correction results (ACC is −0.01 and ACR is 49%). Besides, the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the '+−+' pattern before 1999 and the '−+−' pattern afterwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the northward jump time of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is defined and analyzed on the interdecadal timescale. The results show that under global warming, significant interdecadal changes have occurred in the time of the WPSH northward jumps. From 1951 to 2012, the time of the first northward jump of WPSH has changed from 'continuously early' to 'continuously late', with the transition occurring in 1980. The time of the second northward jump of WPSH shows a similar change, with the transition occurring in 1978. In this study, we offer a new perspective by using the time of the northward jump of WPSH to explain the eastern China summer rainfall pattern change from 'north-abundant-south-below-average' to 'south-abundant-north-below-average' at the end of the 1970s. The interdecadal change in the time of the northward jump of WPSH corresponds not only with the summer rainfall pattern, but also with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The WPSH northward jump time corresponding to the cold (warm) phase of the PDO is early (late). Although the PDO and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) both greatly influence the time of the two northward jumps of WPSH, the PDO's effect is noticed before the ENSO's by approximately 1-2 months. After excluding the ENSO influence, we derive composite vertical atmospheric circulation for different phases of the PDO. The results show that during the cold (warm) phase of the PDO, the atmospheric circulations at 200, 500, and 850 hPa all contribute to an earlier (later) northward jump of the WPSH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the influence of global warming, the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late 1970s. Although El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability, its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed, and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has weakened. This has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China. On the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer, as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases, i.e. before and after the significant global warming (1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012, respectively), we concluded that (1) Under different inter-decadal backgrounds, the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency, but in the latter phase of the global warming, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was on the strong side, the position of which was in the south, and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active, while the polar vortex extended to the south, and meridional circulation intensified. This circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III, and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I, thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China. (2) In the former phase, the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible differences. The impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) was great, and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was effective. In the latter phase, this identification ability decreased, while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern increased, and the identification ability of the PNA on Patterns II and III also increased. Based on the new inter-decadal climate background, this study reconstructs the conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in summer of eastern China by using the previous winter PNA and the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection indexes. The fitting effect was satisfying, though it is necessary to be further tested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A continuous overcast-rainy weather (CORW) process occurred over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China from February 14 to March 9 in 2009, with a large stretch and long duration that was rarely seen in historical records. Using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), we analyzed the geopotential height anomaly field of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II in the same period, and defined the stable components of extended-range (10-30 days) weather forecast (ERWF). Furthermore, we defined anomalous and climatic stable components based on the variation characteristics of the variance contribution ratio of EOF components. The climatic stable components were able to explain the impact of climatically averaged information on the ERWF, and the anomalous stable components revealed the abnormal characteristics of the continuous overcast-rainy days. Our results show that the stable components, especially the anomalous stable components, can maintain the stability for a longer time (more than 10 days) and manifest as monthly scale low-frequency variation and ultra-long-wave activities. They also behave as ultra-long waves of planetary scale with a stable and vertically coherent structure, reflect the variation of general circulation in mid-high latitudes, display the cycle of the zonal circulation and the movement and adjustment of the ultra-long waves, and are closely linked to the surface CORW process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]