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The rationality of regional land planning needs to be evaluated through intelligent technology and continuously optimized. At present, most land planning is temporarily adjusted according to actual needs, so it does not have real-time dynamics. In order to improve the rationality of regional land planning, based on BP neural network, this study combined the spatial mining technology to construct a regional land planning model, and used BP neural network and SVM technology to establish a relationship model between the impact factor value and distance scale factor. Moreover, based on the gray system theory, this study uses the gray correlation model to measure the coupling degree between industrial structure and land use, and analyzes the correlation between various factors. In addition, the artificial neural network after learning and testing can be used for dynamic simulation calculations. The research results show that this algorithm has some practical effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fundamentally new integrated approach to the state activity on the adaptation to changing environmental conditions, namely, the territorial planning of land use is proposed by the example of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation being the most vulnerable region to climate change. Adaptation measures for natural ecosystems are scientifically grounded for the Arctic region: the prevention of permafrost surface cover disturbances, the minimization of other types of anthropogenic impact and pollution, the maintenance and increase in surface albedo in winter. The examples of development of a dual indicator system are given: for monitoring the implementation of measures and adaptation efficiency (the quantitative markers of climate-caused damage). The analysis of all indicators in the adaptation efficiency monitoring system, as well as the projections of indicators for 5–10 years ahead help to make reasoned management decisions to correct the applied adaptation measures. The practical application of the results includes the use of the developed approaches in the sectoral and regional plans and at the second stage of the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study combines statistical methods and a Markov model to analyze interregional differences in land use in Beijing since 2003 and to predict land use changes for 2015 and 2019. First, the paper proposes a new concept, land use flow, which counts the change in area from the beginning to the end of the period of interest, to analyze changing land use patterns using statistical records from 2003 to 2011. Second, based on land use data between 2003, 2007 and 2011, this paper applied a Markov model to the prediction of Beijing land use in 2015 and 2019. The results show that: (1) the area of arable land decreased significantly across all of Beijing, with the greatest decrease, 6,953 ha, occurring in Tongzhou. The amount of urban land increased significantly, particularly in eastern and southern Beijing, in areas such as Chaoyang, Tongzhou and Daxing. The amount of land use for orchards fluctuated depending on the distance from the city center; (2) Haidian experienced the greatest change in its ratio of land use flow to urban land (100 %), while Tongzhou had the greatest reduction in arable land (−67.6 %); (3) the annual rate of land use change for Beijing as a whole was 0.89 %. Fangshan had the highest rate of annual conversion to grassland (13.2 %), while the Daxing District had the highest rate of change to urban land (5.1 %). Shijingshan experienced the greatest rate of annual change to other uses due to its small base (135.38 %); and (4) the predictions suggest that urban land is increasing and arable land is decreasing in the 14 districts and counties of Beijing. Several conclusions can be drawn from these results. First, the concept of land use flow is useful for analyzing land use change and simplifies previous methods that were based on descriptions of the change orientation. Moreover, an understanding of the sub-flow of land use is improved by the linkage between land use change and the Markov model. Second, the predictions of land use in 2015 and 2019 suggest problems of urban sprawl and diminishing arable land in the patterns of land use that exist in Beijing and that will continue in the future. In terms of sustainability and Beijing's goal of being a world city, the findings can help local authorities better understand and address a complex urban master plan, and develop improved land use management strategies that can better balance urban expansion and ecological conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development and use of the conceptual framework of ecosystem services (ES) has been very successful in supporting the broad diffusion and application of ES within science and policy communities. However, most of the currently proposed interpretations of the framework neither correlate to environmental planning nor to decision-making contexts at the local and regional scale, which is a potential reason for the slow adoption and practice of the ES conceptual framework. This paper proposes a practice-oriented ES evaluation (PRESET) model specifically adapted to the requirements of local and regional planning and decision-making contexts, and discusses its potential benefits and implications for practice. Through the usage of PRESET we suggest making a distinction between 'offered ES', 'utilized ES', 'human input', and 'ES benefits' as relevant information for decision-making. Furthermore, we consider it important to link these decision-support categories to different value dimensions relevant in planning and management practice. PRESET provides guidance to inject the ES concept into planning, but needs to be implemented together with concrete assessment methods, indicators and data. The planning strategic benefits of using PRESET include its reference to existing legislative objectives, avoiding the risk that monetized ES values might dominate decision-making, clarification of human contributions, and easier identification of land use conflicts and synergies. Examples are given for offered and utilized ES, as well as for respective evaluation approaches and instruments of implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green space plays an important role in complex urban ecosystems and provides significant ecosystem services with environmental, aesthetic, recreational and economic benefits. Beijing is the capital city of China and has a large population of about 15.81 million. Construction of green spaces is an important part of sustainable development in Beijing. To attain the sustainable development of Beijing as a capital city, an international city, a historical cultural city, and a living amenity city, this article attempts to develop a comprehensive plan of green space development both at the municipal and regional levels. At the municipal level of Beijing, based on the study of green space changes, and taking physical geographic conditions and historical context into account, we propose to establish green barriers in the mountainous area, and plan a comprehensive green space pattern composed of one city, two rings, three networks, eight water areas, nine fields, and several patches in the plain area. At the regional level of the Capital Circle Region, integrating the characteristics and causes of main environmental issues, we design a macroscopic pattern-'barriers by mountains in the northwest,' 'seaward open spaces in the southeast,' 'grassland-forest-field-coast zones,' and 'green-blue symphony'-for ecological restoration and green space construction. Finally, we discuss the principles necessary to implement green space planning considering adaptation to local conditions, composite function exploitation, interregional equity and integrated planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a new model of sustainable development planning based on a case study of a successful planning process for the Great Bear Rainforest on Canada’s west coast. The planning region is an area of international ecological significance that contains one-quarter of the world’s remaining ancient coastal temperate rainforest. An innovative collaborative planning process was initiated in 1996 to develop a plan for the region that balances social, economic, and environmental values. The plan, which was accepted by consensus agreement of all stakeholders in 2006, uses a new model for sustainable regional development that is based on collaborative planning, collaborative implementation, informal conflict resolution, contextual adaptation incorporating comanagement with indigenous peoples (First Nations), joint fact finding, ecosystem-based management, and integration of social, economic, and environmental objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Private land-use restrictions at the subdivision level, commonly called covenant or deed restrictions, have the potential to reduce housing consumption and investment risk and existing empirical evidence has shown a positive marginal housing price for covenant restrictions. However, some commentators have charged that covenant restrictions are full of boilerplate and mostly unenforced, thus any positive marginal price measurement captures other unobserved aspects of the subdivision. Indeed newly published estimates report zero or negative marginal price for deed-restricted subdivisions (DRS). This paper reviews these claims using a hedonic model of housing and a unique dataset that includes covenant restrictions, by-laws, and club goods. Results show a positive marginal price of deed restrictions even when controlling for several subdivision characteristics; however, the marginal price of restrictions falls to zero if a covenant is not updated after 25 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach was applied to assess the performance of a distributed catchment model and to estimate prediction limits after conditioning based on observed catchment-wide streamflow. Prediction limits were derived not only for daily streamflow but also for piezometric levels and for extreme events. The latter analysis was carried out considering independent partial duration time series (PDS) obtained from the observed daily streamflow hydrograph. Important data uncertainties were identified. For streamflow the stage-discharge data analysis led to estimate an average data uncertainty of about 3 m³ s-1. For piezometric levels, data errors were estimated to be in the order of 5 m in average and 10 m at most. The GLUE analysis showed that most of the inspected parameters are insensitive to model performance, except the horizontal and vertical components of the hydraulic conductivity of one of the geological layers that have the most influence on the streamflow model performance in the application catchment. The study revealed a considerable uncertainty attached to the simulation of both high flows and low flows (i.e., in average terms 5 m³ s-1 before the Bayesian updating of the prediction limits). Similarly, wide prediction intervals were obtained for the piezometric levels in relevant wells, in the order of 3.3 and 1.5 m before and after the Bayesian updating of the prediction limits, respectively. Consequently, the results suggest that, in average terms, the model of the catchment predicts overall outputs within the limitations of the errors in the input variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we discuss the use of system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in water resources management. Problems in regional planning and river basin management, urban water management, flooding and irrigation exhibit important short-term and long-term effects, and are often contentious issues with high potential for conflict. We argue that system dynamics combined with stakeholder involvement provides an appropriate methodology to address these issues effectively. We trace the theoretical and practical evolution of system dynamics in these areas over the past 50 years. From this review of the literature and selected case studies we identify and discuss a number of best practices and common pitfalls in applications of system dynamics simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This case study examines the coastal zone problems focusing on the existing conflicts between tourism and commercial activities on the coasts of Edremit Bay, Turkey, and attempts to suggest solutions to these problems. Edremit Bay is a characteristic example of such a conflict in collective use of natural resources. The study area, with its 100-km-long sandy beach, naturally attracts different coastal user groups with different beneficial expectations: in terms of rest and recreation for one group and commercial gain offered in a variety of ways for another group. Significant coastal zone problems exist in the study area. Deterioration of shoreline due to tourism activities and illegal constructions, damage to the coastal ecosystem due to domestic/industrial wastewater discharges and some agricultural activities, and disordered urbanization are only a few of the many problems. The data presented here were partly derived from field study and partly collected from local state or private organizations. In this study, it is emphasized that there is a need for viable economic and environmental strategies to be designated in Edremit Bay, Turkey, in order to provide sustainable resource use. For this purpose, an integrated project together with a relevant planning chart including subprojects is also suggested. The success of a local environmental protection management project depends on active participation of all stakeholders including governmental organizations and nongovernmental organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metro, a regional planning authority, has written and implemented the nation's strongest and most comprehensive smart-growth plan in Portland, Oregon. For a region expected to grow in population by 80 percent in the next five decades, Metro's plan calls for a mere 6 percent expansion of land area; high-density housing in the form of apartments, mixed-use developments, and single-family homes on small lots; pedestrian-friendly design codes; 125 miles of rail transit; and almost no new highway construction. Though smart-growth advocates promise their policies will reduce congestion, clean the air, provide affordable housing, protect open space, and reduce urban-service costs, Metro's plan does the opposite of all these things. Metro planners predict its plan will quadruple the time Portlanders waste sitting in traffic by 2020 and increase smog by 10 percent. The artificial land shortage posed by the urban-growth boundary has already turned Portland from one of the nation's most affordable housing markets to one of the ten least affordable ones. The plan's demand for infill development is sacrificing valuable urban open space to protect abundant rural open space. Rail transit and high-density developments both require huge subsidies. Portlanders initially supported Metro's efforts because they were told that planning would save Portland from becoming like Los Angeles, the nation's most congested and polluted urban area. In fact, Los Angeles is also the nation's densest urban area and has the fewest miles of freeway per capita, making it the epitome of smart growth. This actually led Metro to conclude that its goal is to ‘replicate’ Los Angeles' development patterns in Portland. The result is that Portland-area residents are increasingly hostile to Metro's plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prescriptions of top-down land use planners and the actions of the people who shape U.S. cities, consumers and developers, are at odds. In spite of various recent pronouncements that the ‘Smart Growth’ movement has begun to reverse suburbanization trends, the opposite appears to be the case. Population data from the 2000 census and employment trend data from the Commerce Department's REIS (Regional Economic Information System) file corroborate the view that the decentralization of people and jobs continues. Falling transportation and communications costs strongly suggest that most people will continue to choose suburban low-density living. The move to new communities in suburban and exurban areas has been accompanied by a parallel move to private communities. In the past 25 years, about 40 million Americans have moved into private communities. Over the same period, the suburbs have grown by approximately 55 million. In addition to the advantages associated with suburban and private community living, both offer more secure property rights. Governance arrangements in private communities must pass a market test; governance in newer communities is less likely to be hampered by established interest groups and lobbies. Both outcomes can be seen as institutional adaptations to the threat posed to property by an environmental movement working hard to implement top-down land use controls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the espoused and actual achievements of government urban planning in Hong Kong in terms of the ideas of Hayek and Mises. With reference to observed facts, it is argued that it is indeed the spontaneous forces of the land market predicated on a leasehold system, a system of ‘planning by contract’ or ‘planning by consent,’ that have attained what the government planner in Hong Kong has not been able to deliver. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban travel geometry is a generalization of patterns of movement in cities and regions where route configuration and prevailing traffic speeds constrain or direct movement in distinctive and repeatable patterns. In this paper we use these properties to construct time surfaces on which distance equates to the time of travel in the urban plane. Such surfaces can be two- or three-dimensional and are useful in the study of urban structure, locational analysis, transport planning and traffic management. A particular niche addressed in this paper is non-conformal time surface transformations in which speed or the cost of travel is constrained according to co-ordinate directions. It is argued that such models may be more suited to gridded and orbital-radial cities than previously used conformal transformations. After explaining the rationale behind the approach, a mathematical basis is developed and several calibrated examples are provided based on regions in the UK. The paper concludes with some examples of potential applications, and an annex provides a detailed mathematical framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical models applied to urban and regional planning have been widely developed during the sixties. Since that time the scientific and technologic developments have deeply transformed the field of spatial modelling. There has been a reaction against the idea that reality could be reduced to deterministic models. The paradigms of complexity, chaos, self-organisation, fractal geometry have made obvious the unpredictability of complex socio-economic systems. At the same time the progress of computation has led to the substitution of simulation methods to analytic solutions of mathematical models. In such a context, models are loosing in generality and reproducibility what they earn in adaptation to empirical situations. An important challenge is also to confirm the pertinence and specificity of the geographical approach. In that respect the spatial analysis programs must prove the evidence of a common methodology dealing either with physical or human and economic domain. We are working, for instance, on cellular automata programs applied to the historical evolution of an urban space and also to the run-off process in an elementary basin. The spatial structure of the models may be slightly different: rectangular or hexagonal tessellations in the ‘Human Geography’ program, TIN structure, closer to the physical reality, in the other. The relations between the cells may also differ: they are often defined by a distance matrix for the socio-economic models, but a contiguity matrix is of course needed for the streaming process. But, beyond these technical differences, it appears that the geographical programs are developed on a macro-level, that is on aggregate statistical units. The elementary particle is always (or should be for a geographer… ) a material, spatial unit, unlike the drop of water of the hydrologists, or the individual ‘agents’ of the sociologists' multi-agents systems. The difference between the micro and macro level is not a question of scale, but a difference of logic. The simulation approach has a requisite, which is a need of systematic validation by a permanent comparison with the actual situation, but the objective is not prediction. The scientific concern is, before all, a precise understanding of the past and recent evolutions, more than a forecasting, which escapes to the specific field of scientific research. What is scientific is what can be measured. The possible prediction may rely on the scientific research, but belongs strictly to the domain of intellectual and personal thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a data-driven expert-guided method of coastal typology development using a large, heterogeneous data set. The development of coastal typologies is driven by a desire to upscale detailed regional information to a global scale in order to study coastal zone function and the effects of global climate change. We demonstrate two methods of automatic typology generation – unsupervised clustering and region growing with agglomerative clustering – and a method of selecting an appropriate number of classes based on the concept of Minimum Description Length. We compare two methods of defining distance between data points with a large number of variables and potentially missing data – average scaled Euclidean distance and maximum scaled difference. To visualize the resulting typologies we use a novel algorithm for assigning colors to different classes of data based on class similarity in a high-dimensional space. This combination of techniques results in a methodology through which one or more experts can easily develop a useful coastline typology with results that are similar to preexisting expert typologies, but which makes the process more quantitative, objective, consistent, and applicable across space and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability-oriented water management calls for scenarios of future water use. Model-based qualitative-quantitative scenarios combine the development of story lines and the quantification of driving forces with the application of a water use model. In order to support regional planning in two semi-arid Brazilian states suffering from water scarcity, the water use model NoWUM was applied to derive two reference scenarios of municipality-specific sectorial water uses (irrigation, livestock, household, industry and tourism), and to assess the impact of certain interventions. Until 2025, the extension of irrigation accounts for almost 80% of the additional water withdrawals and for an even higher fraction of consumptive use in both scenarios. Domestic and industrial use increases in regions with high immigration, but water use intensities can be controlled by appropriate water pricing. A significant improvement of the developed scenarios is only possible if better data on water use and its driving forces become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents an applied geographic approach for assessing potential slope instability which is useful for land use planning and prioritizing site-specific studies of potential construction hazard. Identification of areas in Travis County, Texas that is susceptible to high landslides; Significance of geologic hazards in land use planning.

This article discusses regional planning in the United States and the negative attitude of citizens regarding the practice. Vermont combines New England's strongest banking climate and strictest regional land-use planning. It is the only New England state that has not suffered a savings-and-loan collapse, and it has the region's most demanding statewide environmental regulations. Vermont's experience marks a fascinating turn in America's generations-long ambivalence toward regional land-use planning. Let us define regional planning as the regulation of land development projects that is conducted by governments above the municipal and county levels. Regional planning has traditionally foundered on the plain fact that many Americans truly loathe modem, centralized, regulatory government. In no area is the contradiction as apparent as in regional land-use planning. Regional planning in the United States has provably increased each year for at least the last two decades and it is likely to expand in coming years. This activity has been genuinely embraced at federal and state levels. And yet, it is hated anyway. The time has come to rework this complex tangle of attitudes and bring them more in line with reality, in the Vermont manner.

This paper delineates the conditions under which computerized land-use models have been adopted and used in the activities of a number of regional planning agencies. Our discussion is based on intensive case studies of planning agencies and the group includes both model adopters and nonadopters. We find that the presence of advocates of model adoption and of persons interested in their continued refinement and use are of paramount importance in the decision to adopt a model and in its subsequent incorporation into the life of the planning agency. However, although the presence of an advocate is by-and-large sufficient for model adoption, the continued interest of agency staff is necessary but far from sufficient in determining how and to what extent the model will in fact be exercised. At this stage both political and organizational factors become important. Moreover, it is at the use stage, rather than at the consideration of adoption, that the characteristics of the model receive more careful scrutiny and shortcomings become more important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]