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Aeolian desertification, a serious degradation of soil and vegetation, is one of the most important issues in arid and semi-arid regions in terms of society/economy and environment. However, there still remains problematic on the study of climate change and its impact on aeolian desertification in the such region. To reverse aeolian desertified land (ADL), it is necessary to identify the causes of ADL. The paper uses meteorological data to characterize climate change and its impact on ADL during 1970–2015 with the method of geostatistics, and the results showed that the climate tended to be warmer and drier. The linear trend rates of annual mean temperature for the whole year (WY), winter half year (WHY), and summer half year (SHY) were 0.24 °C (10 a)−1, 0.25 °C (10 a)−1, and 0.18 °C (10 a)−1, respectively. The linear trend rates of average precipitation were − 8.29 mm (10 a)−1, 2.69 mm (10 a)−1, and − 8.27 mm (10 a)−1, respectively. Rising temperatures in WY, WHY, and SHY lead to increase topsoil evaporation and may trigger ADL development. However, the decreasing precipitation in SHY weakened soil erosion, and the increasing precipitation with a rate of 0.26 mm a−1 in WHY improved the soil moisture content. Therefore, our results show that climatic change has a relatively high sensitivity, especially in WHY, to the expansion or reversal of ADL in semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution oasis maps are imperative for understanding ecological and socio-economic development of arid regions. However, due to the late establishment and relatively niche nature of the oasis discipline, there are no high-precision datasets related to oases in the world to date. To fill this gap, detailed visual interpretation of remote sensing images on Google Earth Professional or Sentinel-2 was conducted in summer 2020, and for the first time, a high-precision dataset of China's oases (abbreviation HDCO) with a resolution of 1 meter was constructed. HDCO comprises 1,466 oases with a total area of 277,375.56 km2. The kappa coefficient for this dataset validated by the field survey was 0.8686 and the AUC value for the ROC curve was 0.935. In addition, information on the geographic coordinates, climatic conditions, major landforms, and hydrological features of each oasis was added to the attribute table of the dataset. This dataset enables researchers to quantitatively monitor location and area of oases, fosters exploration of the relationship between oases and human under climate change and urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and the change of climate variables will eventually have a great impact on vegetation cover and agricultural practices, especially in the arid area Xinjiang in China, whose agriculture and ecosystems are heavily vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to study the vegetation growth and its response to climate change in Xinjiang. Firstly, two NDVI datasets (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) were merged through a pixel-wise regression analysis to obtain a long time series of NDVI data, and then, relationships between yearly NDVI and yearly climate variables, and monthly NDVI and monthly climate variables were extensively investigated for grassland and cropland in northern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. Results show the following: (1) there was an increasing trend in NDVI for both grassland and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang over the past decades and trends were significant except that for grassland in northern Xinjiang; (2) precipitation and evaporation were more important than temperature for grassland in northern Xinjiang, while precipitation and temperature were more important than evaporation for grassland in southern Xinjiang and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang; (3) NDVI was highly correlated with accumulated monthly precipitation instead of monthly precipitation, and there was a lagged effect of precipitation, temperature, and evaporation on NDVI change. However, lagged effects were only significant in specific months. The results could be helpful to agricultural practices; e.g., based on lagged effect of precipitation, irrigation in July is very important for crop growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Keriya River Basin was chosen as the study site in this paper in order to investigate the suitable scales of natural and artificial oases with a certain water resource quantity. A calculation model was constructed and the suitable scales of natural and artificial oases were analyzed using remote sensing images, water resources, weather and socioeconomic data. The results showed that (1) high- and low-flow variations were apparent for the Keriya River. The mean values for the high-flow period, normal flow period and low-flow period were 9.23 × 10 m, 7.177 × 10 m and 5.741 × 10 m, respectively. (2) The ecological water demand of natural oasis in the lower reaches of the Keriya River Basin was 2.561 × 10 m. (3) In the Tarim Basin, the proportion of natural and artificial oases was 6:4. (4) In the middle reaches, after guaranteeing the unchangeable scale of artificial oases, the most suitable size of a natural oasis was 798-1,157 km. Under the reasonable proportion (i.e. proportion of 6:4 for the natural and artificial oases), the respective suitable scales of natural and artificial oases in the middle reaches were 831-1,003 km and 554-669 km. This study constructed a model for calculating the suitable scale of an oasis, verified the suitable proportions of natural and artificial oases and discussed the reasonable scales of oases in order to provide a new theoretical basis for determining reasonable development planning in similar river basins located in extremely arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of global and regional climate change and heightened human activities, runoff from some rivers in the world, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions, has significantly decreased. To reveal the varying characteristics leading to the change in runoff, detecting the influencing factors has been important in recent scientific discussions for water resources management in drainage basins. In this paper, an investigation into attributing the runoff response to climate change and human activities were conducted in two catchments (Wushan and Shetang), situated in the upper reaches of Weihe River in China. Prior to the identification of the factors that influenced runoff changes, the Mann-Kendall test was adopted to identify the trends in hydro-climate series. Also, change-points in the annual runoff were detected through Pettitt's test and the precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve method. It is found that both catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff and the detected change-point in runoff occurs in 1993. Hence, the pre-change period and post-change period are defined before and after 1993, respectively. Then, runoff response to climate change and human activities was quantitatively evaluated on the basis of hydrologic sensitivity analysis and hydrologic model simulation. They provided similar estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the post-change period over the considered catchments. It is found that the decline in annual runoff over both catchments can be mainly attributed to the human activities, the reduction percentages due to human activities range from 59 to 77 %. The results of this study can provide a reference for the development, utilization and management of the regional water resources and ecological environment protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change is becoming an important anthropogenic force in the global climate system through alteration of the Earth's biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. Cropland, which provides people with food, is the most variable vegetation land-use type and is affected by natural and anthropic forces and in turn affects the environment and climate system. This paper investigates the temporal-spatial pattern of cropland transition in the arid and semiarid region of northwest China, using remote sensing data for the late 1980s, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, and 2010. The aim was to clarify the change intensity and conversion pattern of cropland with a view to identifying the effects of a series of governmental policies and their influence on the climate system. Mathematical methodologies including the use of a transition matrix model, dynamic degree model, area-weighted centroid model, and area percentage were employed to analyze the temporal change in cropland. Meanwhile, a gridded zonal model with 10-km resolution was used to detect the spatial pattern of cropland transition. During the period from the late 1980s to 2010, cropland increased dramatically by 23,182.17 km, an increase of 13.61 % relative to the area under cultivation in the late 1980s. Cropland transition accumulated in the western oasis-desert ecotone of the study area while it declined in the eastern farming-pastoral ecotone, leading to the westward movement of the cropland centroid. A net decrease in natural vegetation and unused land along with a net increase in built-up land due to cropland conversion was observed in the monitoring period. The three major driving forces of the cropland transition were population growth, economic development, and land-use management governed by the Grain for Green Program. The climate response to different conversion patterns was simply analyzed. However, quantitative assessment of the effect should be undertaken by employing ecosystem and climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous analyses of the possibility of global breadbasket failures have extrapolated risks based on historical relationships between climate and yields. However, climate change is causing unprecedented events globally, which could exceed critical thresholds and reduce yields, even if there is no historical precedent. This means that we are likely underestimating climate risks to our food system. In the case of wheat, parts of the USA and China show little historical relationship between yields and temperature, but extreme temperatures are now possible that exceed critical physiological thresholds in wheat plants. UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approaches use large ensembles to generate plausible unprecedented events, which can inform our assessment of the risk to crops. We use the UNSEEN approach with a large ensemble of archived seasonal forecasts to generate thousands of plausible events over the last 40 years and compare the results with historically observed extreme temperature and precipitation. In the US midwest, extreme temperatures that would have happened approximately 1-in-100-years in 1981 now have a return period of 1-in-6 years, while in China, the current return period is on the order of 1-in-16 years. This means that in the US midwest, extreme temperatures that used to have a 1% chance to occur in 1981 now have a 17% chance to occur in any given year, while in China, the chance increased from 1% to 6%. Record-breaking years exceeding critical thresholds for enzymes in the wheat plant are now more likely than in the past, and these record-breaking hot years are associated with extremely dry conditions in both locations. Using geopotential height and wind anomalies from the UNSEEN ensemble, we demonstrate that strong winds over land pull dry air towards the regions these during extremely hot and dry unseen events. We characterize plausible extremes from the UNSEEN ensemble that can be used to help imagine otherwise unforeseen events, including a compound event in which high impacts co-occur in both regions, informing adaptation planning in these regions. Recent temperature extremes, especially in the US midwest, are unlikely to be a good proxy for what to expect in the next few years of today's climate, and local stakeholders might perceive their risk to be lower than it really is. We find that there is a high potential for surprise in these regions if people base risk analyses solely on historical datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake organic matter is one of the important forms of terrestrial carbon, and its sedimentary evolution is affected by many factors such as climate and sources. However, few studies have been conducted on the feedback mechanism of the sedimentary evolution of organic matter to climate change in cold and arid lakes. Historical variations and compositions of sources of the sediment organic matter (SOM) of Hulun Lake, a typical lake in the cold and arid region of China, were studied by multiple methods. The interactions and fee7dback mechanisms between the sedimentary evolution of SOM and climate change, and compositions of SOM source change, were also discussed. Overall, the characteristic indexes of the SOM, including total organic carbon (TOC), carbon stable isotope (δ13C), carbon to nitrogen ratio (C/N), and fluorescence intensity (FI) of the protein-like component in water extractable organic matter (WEOM), showed obvious and uniform characteristics of periodical changes. The indexes were relatively stable before 1920, and fluctuated from 1920 to 1979. Since the 1980s, values of TOC, δ13C, and FI of the protein-like component in WEOM has increased, while C/N decreased. The absolute dominant contribution of terrestrial source to the SOM had changed, and the relative average contribution rate of autochthonous source increased from 17.6% before 1920 to 36.9% after 2000. The increase of temperature, strong evaporation concentration effect, and change of compositions of SOM sources are the important driving factors of the sedimentary evolution of organic matter in Hulun Lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid, semi-arid, and semi-humid regions (drylands) with fragile ecological balance have undergone dramatic climate change in past decades, and how the desertification will change under a continuous warming background still remain uncertain. In this study, the bias-corrected Community Earth System Model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 were dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, based on which the evolution trend of desertification over northern China (NC) in the past (1972–2000) and the near future period (2021–2050) under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed using the dune mobility index, and the impacts of climate change on the intensification or reversal of desertification over NC in the near future were explored. The results show that WRF downscaling can reproduce the desertification changes over NC in the past. The regions with a high risk of desertification are mainly located on the border of the desert and gobi. Under a rapidly warming climate in the near future, desertification will likely reverse in most regions of NC, especially for regions north of 40°N over NC. Potential evapotranspiration changes will exacerbate desertification, while precipitation changes will promote rehabilitation, and wind speed changes show obvious local impacts on desertification. The results in this study imply that, with rising temperatures in the future, the extent of desertification will not always continue, desertification will likely reverse at the front and margin of deserts and gobi, and responses of desertification to climate change have significant spatial differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global surface temperature is increasing significantly under climate change with increasingly uneven distribution of precipitation, which has been making an important impact on the sustainable development of the dryland agriculture in semi-arid regions. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) has the largest area ratio of semi-arid regions in China, and spring wheat is one of its major grain crops, and the negative impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to its production. In order to reduce this threat, we assessed the impact thresholds and risks posed by the main climatic factors to spring-wheat production, and put forward quantitative adaptive countermeasures. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2012, the appropriate impact thresholds of average temperature, precipitation, fertilization level, and water supply level were 15.6 °C, 333 mm, 319.5 kg/ha, and 743.7 mm, respectively. Compared with the average values in 1996–2012, the maximum fertilization level and water supply level could be increased by 162.2 kg/ha and 406.5 mm, respectively, to improve the adaptive yield of spring wheat. The risks of adverse impacts of temperature rise, precipitation decrease, and their combined effect on spring-wheat production were found to be 11.1%, 9.3%, and 10.3%, respectively. The whole IMAR showed a high risk of adverse impacts of temperature rise and the combined action of temperature rise and precipitation decrease on spring-wheat production. In particular, the spring-wheat production in the northeastern, eastern, and central areas were found to be at the highest risk to the impacts of climate change. Based on the determined appropriate thresholds of fertilization level and water supply level, it was determined that in the northeastern area, the maximum fertilization level and water supply level could be increased by 229.9 kg/ha and 441.4 mm, respectively, to increase the adaptive yield of spring wheat. In the eastern area, the two factors could be increased by 142.2 kg/ha and 464.3 mm, respectively. In the central area, they could be increased by 242.2 kg/ha and 513.7 mm, respectively. In the southwestern area, they could be increased by 41.4 kg/ha and 201.7 mm, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To combat desertification, an understanding of its current development is necessary, including that of causative factors associated with climate change and increasing human activity. Whereas, there is an ongoing debate surrounding impact factors for change in vegetation and desertification in arid regions. The present study assesses the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation change in the Ulan Buh Desert, northwest China. Driving factors for desertification were discussed using the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS NDVI) and SPOT Vegetation NDVI datasets, high-resolution satellite images, and meteorological and socioeconomic data in the period 1982–2018. The results show a trend of overall greening, with increasing trends at rates between 0.0008/year and 0.0013/year indicated by the two NDVI datasets and with a corresponding reduction in dune activity. The spatial variations of two NDVI datasets verified the significantly greening trend in the northern and southern areas of the desert. Human activity was observed to have impacted vegetation dynamics. It is predicted that the implementation of ecological projects will contribute to the restoration of vegetation during a warmer, wetter climate trend. However, the reduction of wind strength played a dominant role in vegetation greenness and dune stability in the Ulan Buh Desert. The present study revealed the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation variations and the driving factors for desertification in arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are various types of climate transitional zones on the earth's surface. The East Asian summer monsoon transition zone (EASMTZ) has attracted much attention due to its multiple roles. It is where most of the semi-arid regions locate in China, and semi-arid climate is unstable relative to the arid climate to its north and humid climate to its south. Therefore, EASMTZ is very sensitive to climate changes, and its land-atmosphere interaction (LA-I) is active and crucial. The LA-I is significantly affected by the complex land surface conditions and closely related to the summer monsoon climate dynamics. The LA-I and its response to summer monsoon activities is thus complicated. It includes multi-feedback mechanisms, which involve the land surface thermal-hydrological-ecological couplings, multi-interface exchanges from near surface to the free atmosphere. These feedbacks are sensitive to the summer monsoon activities. Based on a summary of the unique characteristics of EASMTZ and the main research progresses in LA-I in recent years, the issues related to LA-I are discussed in this region. Finally, the key scientific issues faced by the LA-I are proposed, and the future focuses are summarized. This work should help for the future study on the LA-I and its response to summer monsoon activities in the EASMTZ, which should contribute to the understanding of the increasing drought frequency associated with the significant warming trend in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating oasis effects of different oasis-town configurations is key to understanding the ecological stability of the oasis. However, previous studies have not considered the impacts of oasis–town configurations on oasis effects. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to conduct a series of 1-km-resolution simulations of the Hami Oasis, Xinjiang of China, to examine how different oasis–town configurations influenced the oasis effects. The actual landscape and four hypothetical landscapes were considered. Results indicated that the WRF model effectively reproduced the trends of the surface temperature, 2-m air temperature, 2-m relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed. It was also found that the effects of the town on the oasis were substantially greater when the former was located at the center of the oasis, rather than on the margin. At 850 hPa, the center of the temperature field was downstream from that of the wind field, whereas both coincided at lower levels. When the size of the town was doubled, the convergence center over the town weakened the strength of the divergent low-level winds from the oasis. This facilitated the infiltration of dry air from the surrounding desert into the oasis, which is detrimental to the healthy development of the oasis. Placing a town at the margin of the oasis is therefore advantageous to the development of the cold island, whereas a town at the center of the oasis is beneficial to the comfort of the residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been widely accepted that the global climate will change, with a 'dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' pattern. Recent studies found that such changes were overestimated. Drought/wetting variations were detected in a semiarid and sub-humid transitional region of China. The aridity index based on precipitation and reference evapotranspiration was applied to estimate drought/wetting variations. The results showed that the climate in the annual mean of the Zhangjiakou region showed a wetting trend from 1960 to 2017. The wetting trend also occurred in January, February, May and the wet season, especially in June, and in September, October, December and the dry season, and the wetting trend was significant. However, the drought trend occurred in March, April, July, August and November. Moreover, the most obvious wetting and drought changes occurred in September and August, respectively. Climate drought/wetting conditions are primarily driven by precipitation. Although increasing temperatures resulted in enhanced evaporation, precipitation increased, which could offset the increase in evaporation. In addition to precipitation and temperature, humidity was an important influencing factor on drought/wetting variation. The impact of humidity on drought/wetting conditions was greater than that of temperature in January, February, July, August and September. The influencing factors of drought/wetting variations are complicated in the Zhangjiakou region and are mainly influenced by the southeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and plateau monsoon in the Tibetan Plateau, westerly circulation and West Pacific subtropical high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The natural environment provides material essentials for human survival and development. The characteristics, processes, regional differentiation and forcing mechanisms of the elements of the natural environment (e.g. geomorphology, climate, hydrology, soil, etc.) are the main objects of research in physical geography. China has a complex natural environment and huge regional differentiation and therefore it provides outstanding reserach opportunities in physical geography. This review summarizes the most important developments and the main contributions of research in the physical geography and human living environment in China during the past 70 years. The major topics addressed are the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the evolution of its cryosphere, the development of fluvial systems, the acidification of the vast arid region of the Asian interior, variations in the monsoon and westerly climate systems on multiple timescales, the development of lakes and wetlands, the watershed system model, soil erosion, past human-environment interactions, biogeography, and physical geographic zonality. After briefly introducing international research developments, we review the history of research in physical geography in China, focusing on the major achievements and major academic debates, and finally we summarize the status of current research and the future prospects. We propose that in the context of the national demand for the construction of an ecological civilization, we should make full use of the research findings of physical geography, and determine the patterns and mechanisms of natural environmental processes in order to continue to promote the continued contribution of physical geography to national development strategies, and to further contribute to the theory of physical geography from a global perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late Quaternary paleoclimate records from arid regions help us understand the response of ecological systems to natural climate change to place recent changes in a longer-term perspective. In this research, a biogeochemical analysis of a sediment core from Lake Ebinur, Xinjiang, allowed us to infer the climate and environmental changes in the late Quaternary in arid northwestern China. The combined lipid biomarkers and bulk biogeochemical properties (TOC, δ13Corg) revealed moderately wet conditions from 34 to 28 ka, favoring the growth of terrestrial vegetation. The subsequent period from 28 to 13 ka was dominated by aquatic plants, algae and microbes, indicating cold and dry conditions. Ameliorated regional moisture conditions were deduced from the higher carbon preference index (CPI) and from δ13Corg values from 13 to 3.6 ka. The optimum climate conditions occurred from 9 to 5 ka. Several climatic events also exist in the Lake Ebinur records with a wide distribution into other regions. Our biogeochemical-based paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental reconstruction is generally synchronous with sedimentary records from mid-latitude Eurasia and the NGRIP ice core record, which probably has a certain linkage with the 45°N summer insolation. We propose that summer insolation conditions in the northern hemisphere might have an impact on the climate and environmental changes in arid northwestern China in the late Quaternary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Due to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in moisture conditions, the responses of arid/humid climate regions (AHCR) to climate change are complex. In this study, we delineated the AHCR of China using information about the balance of the atmospheric water supply and demand collected from 581 meteorological stations over the past 50 years. We also analyzed inter-decadal shifts and linear trends in the AHCR and examined the influence of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration. The results indicate that the semi-arid region expanded significantly over the last five decades, mainly in northwest China, northern China, and the Tibetan Plateau and, by the 2000s, had increased by 33.53% relative to its extent in the 1960s; in contrast, the arid region shrank by 20.75%. The semi-arid region grew mainly because of transfers from the arid region in western China and the sub-humid region in eastern China. The decreased reference evapotranspiration and significantly increased precipitation together contributed to the expansion of the semi-arid region in northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau over the last 50 years. In contrast, the expansion of the semi-arid region in Inner Mongolia and northern China reflects the counteractive influence of decreased reference evapotranspiration and decreased precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface emissivity is a significant variable in energy budgets, land cover assessments, and environment and climate studies. However, the assumption of an emissivity constant is being used in Gobi broadband emissivity (GbBE) parameterization scheme in numerical models because of limited knowledge surrounding the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of GbBE. To address this issue, we analyzed the variation characteristics of GbBE and possible impact factor-surface soil moisture based on long-term continuous and high temporal resolution field observational experiments over a typical Gobi underlying surface in arid and semiarid areas in northwestern China. The results indicate that GbBE has obvious daily and diurnal variation features, especially diurnal cycle characteristics. The multi-year average of the daily average of GbBE is in the range of 0.932 to 0.970 with an average of 0.951 ± 0.008, and the average diurnal GbBE is in the range of 0.880 to 0.940 with an average of 0.906 ± 0.018. GbBE varies with surface soil moisture content. We observed a slight decrease in GbBE with an increase in soil moisture, although this change was not very obvious because of the low soil moisture in this area. Nevertheless, we think that soil moisture must be one of the most significant impact factors on GbBE in arid and semiarid areas. Soil moisture must be taken into account into the parameterization schemes of bare soil broadband emissivity in land surface models. Additional field experiments and studies should be carried out in order to clarify this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the expansion of drylands and regional climate change in northern China by analyzing the variations in aridity index (AI), surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1948 to 2008. It is found that the drylands of northern China have expanded remarkably in the last 61 years. The area of drylands of the last 15 years (1994-2008) is 0.65×10 km (12%) larger than that in the period 1948-62. The boundary of drylands has extended eastward over Northeast China by about 2° of longitude and by about 1° of latitude to the south along the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yellow River. A zonal band of expansion of semi-arid regions has occurred, stretching from western Heilongjiang Province to southern Gansu Province, while shifts to the east of semi-arid regions in dry subhumid regions have also occurred. Results show that the aridity trend of drylands in northern China is highly correlated with the long-term trend of precipitation and PET, and the expansion of semi-arid regions plays a dominant role in the areal extent of drylands, which is nearly 10 times larger than that in arid and subhumid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the most important climatic variables, annual evapotranspiration ( E) reflects the complex interactions between atmosphere, vegetation, soil and hydrological process at global and regional scales. It is largely determined by potential evapotranspiration ( E) and precipitation ( P). Aridity index ( E/ P) which can be defined as the ratio of annual potential evapotranspiration to annual precipitation, can be used to represent annual evapotranspiration. As result it has become an important indicator to assess water-related climate change. This study utilizes the aridity index to reveal the recent climate change patterns in the Lancang River Basin, China. A new non parametric estimator of climate elasticity has also been developed. Using the daily meteorological records (1961-2005) of precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine hours from 35 stations, changes in spatial and temporal characteristics of P, E , E, and E/ P are analyzed. The results reveal some important new findings, which can be summarized as: (a) new findings show that the spatial distribution of, and the correlation coefficients between P, E, E, and E/ P possess strong latitude zonality; (b) high consistency in the temporal variation of P and E has been detected. The main periodicity of the E and E/ P series varies greatly for the three sub basins, and an anti-phase relationship between them has also been found; (c) our newly developed nonparametric estimator of climate elasticity can be successfully used in assessing the sensitivity of climate system. Climate elasticity of E in relation to E and P increases for most of the regions in the study area, suggesting that E becomes more sensitive to changes in the corresponding climatic variable during the study period. The study demonstrates the importance of the aridity index in the water-related climate change studies which has been neglected for a long time by most hydrologists and managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bosten Lake, located in the arid region of northwest China, is the largest inland freshwater lake in China. Water resources in Bosten Lake are of great importance for the regional drinking water supply, agricultural irrigation, and economic development of Xinjiang province. In this study, the dynamics of the lake level in Bosten Lake were investigated from 1956 to 2010. We found that the lake level experienced three different periods of change due to the combined influences of climate variation and human activities. Generally, the lake level has shown a significant downward trend since the first observation started in 1956 and dropped to its lowest level in 1987. Thereafter, the lake level presented a continuous upward trend and rose to its highest value in 2002. Then, the level decreased dramatically from 2002 to 2010. A water balance model and the climate elasticity method were used to estimate the reasons for the lake level changes of Bosten Lake. The results showed that an increase in lake evaporation led to the continuous decrease in lake level from 1958 to 1987. Then, human-controlled lake outflow and increasing lake inflow together led to the increase in lake level from 1988 to 2002. During 2003 to 2010, the emergency project of transferring water to Tarim River led to the increase in lake outflow, while the lake inflow obviously decreased because of a decrease in precipitation. These factors resulted in a sharp decrease in the lake level from 2003 to 2010. The changes in lake level indicate changes in available water resources from Bosten Lake. This reason for the analysis of the change in lake level in this study is to support the water resources management of Bosten Lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil pollen records from 45 sites across China were evaluated and synthesized to document vegetation and climate change during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) at 60-27 ka and to understand the large-scale controls. During MIS3, vegetation type was dominantly forest in eastern China, forest steppe/meadow in the north and Tibetan Plateau, and steppe desert in northwestern arid China. We developed a semi-quantitative vegetation index to reflect change in plant abundance (by inferring the general climate conditions), with a vegetation score from 1 to 3 based on the different vegetation types inferred from pollen data at individual sites at intervals of 2,000 years. The reconstructed vegetation index shows higher values during MIS 3, especially during the period 53-40 ka, than at the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results also suggest that climate on the basis of vegetation change was cooler and drier during MIS 3 than during the Holocene optimum; however, MIS 3 vegetation was probably similar to modern vegetation. The close relationship between vegetation change, insolation and Asian summer monsoon strength suggests that climate variations, probably in both temperature and precipitation, are the primary drivers of regional vegetation change. Additional well-dated, high-resolution palaeoclimate records from many locations across China will be needed to understand the vegetation change and climate forcings on millennial and centennial scales within MIS 3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The default fractional vegetation cover and terrain height were replaced by the estimated fractional vegetation cover, which was calculated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Earth Observing System Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (EOS-MODIS) and the Digital Elevation Model of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) system. The near-surface meteorological elements over northeastern China were assimilated into the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVar) module in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The structure and daily variations of air temperature, humidity, wind and energy fields over northeastern China were simulated using the WRF model. Four groups of numerical experiments were performed, and the simulation results were analyzed of latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and their relationships with changes in the surface energy flux due to soil moisture and precipitation over different surfaces. The simulations were compared with observations of the stations Tongyu, Naiman, Jinzhou, and Miyun from June to August, 2009. The results showed that the WRF model achieves high-quality simulations of the diurnal characteristics of the surface layer temperature, wind direction, net radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux over semiarid northeastern China in the summer. The simulated near-surface temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were improved in the data assimilation case (Case 2) compared with control case (Case 1). The simulated sensible heat fluxes and surface heat fluxes were improved by the land surface parameterization case (Case 3) and the combined case (Case 4). The simulated temporal variations in soil moisture over the northeastern arid areas agree well with observations in Case 4, but the simulated precipitation should be improved in the WRF model. This study could improve the land surface parameters by utilizing remote sensing data and could further improve atmospheric elements with a data assimilation system. This work provides an effective attempt at combining multi-source data with different spatial and temporal scales into numerical simulations. The assimilation datasets generated by this work can be applied to research on climate change and environmental monitoring of arid lands, as well as research on the formation and stability of climate over semiarid areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzed the inter- and inner-annual variations of discharge regimes in the upper and mid reaches of the Heihe River basin. These variations then correlated with temperature and precipitation variations in the area. The differences between the runoff regimes at the upper and mid reaches were compared, and the human impacts on discharge variations in the Heihe River were discussed. The results indicate that in the upper reaches, the long-term trends and periods of discharge and precipitation correlate well. In the mid reaches, the discharge and temperature trends correlate well, and the short discharge and precipitation periods correlate well. Precipitation increases would generate more runoff in both the upper and mid reaches, but the effects of temperature increases on discharge are different in the upper and mid reaches. Temperature increases would enhance the glacial ablation processes and increase runoff in the upper reaches. However, temperature increases would increase the evaporation and decrease runoff in the mid reaches. After the 1980s, higher temperature enhanced snow and glacial melt, and increasing precipitation increased the discharge in the upper reaches. Although increasing precipitation increased some discharge, great human activities caused a notable discharge decrease in the 1990s in the mid reaches, especially during the spring to autumn when large amounts of water resources were used for irrigation. In summary, both precipitation and temperature impact the availability of water resources in the study area, and active and effective adaptation strategies should be developed to improve the efficiency of water resource exploration and to prevent the desertification processes in the arid Heihe River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially for the arid region. We analyzed the changes in the indices of climate extremes, on the basis of daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation at 59 meteorological stations in the arid region of northwest China over the period 1960-2003. Twelve indices of extreme temperature and six indices of extreme precipitation are examined. Temperature extremes show a warming trend with a large proportion of stations having statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. The regional occurrence of extreme cool days and nights has decreased by −0.93 and −2.36 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme warm days and nights has increased by 1.25 and 2.10 days/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days shows a statistically significant decrease at the rate of −3.24 and −2.75 days/decade, respectively. The extreme temperature indices also show the increasing trend, with larger values for the index describing variations in the lowest minimum temperature. The trends of Min Tmin (Tmax) and Max Tmin (Tmax) are 0.85 (0.61) and 0.32 (0.17) °C/decade. Most precipitation indices exhibit increasing trends across the region. On average, regional maximum 1-day precipitation, annual total wet-day precipitation, and number of heavy precipitation days and very wet days show insignificant increases. Insignificant decreasing trends are also found for consecutive dry days. The rank-sum statistic value of most temperature indices exhibits consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. The regional medians after 1986 of Min Tmin (Tmax), Max Tmin (Tmax), warm days (nights), and warm spell duration indicator show statistically more larger than medians before 1986, but the frost days, ice days, cool days (nights), and diurnal temperature range reversed. The medians of precipitation indices show insignificant change except for consecutive dry days before and after 1986. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used a 55-cm sediment core from shallow Chaiwopu Lake in the central Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, northwest China, to investigate climate and environmental changes in this arid region over the past ~150 years. The core was dated using Cs. We compared temporal changes in several sediment variables with recent meteorological and tree-ring records. Organic matter had a positive correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in the central Tianshan Mountains, and the δC of organic matter had a positive correlation with regional temperature. We applied constrained incremental sum-of-squares cluster analysis to element concentrations in the core and identified three distinct zones: (1) 55-46 cm, ~1860-1910, (2) 46-26 cm, ~1910-1952, and (3) 26-0 cm, 1952-present. Between 1880 and 1910 AD, following the Little Ice Age (LIA), the sediment environment was relatively stable, climate was cold and dry, and the lake water displayed high salinity, in contrast to conditions during the LIA. During the LIA, westerlies carried more water vapor into Central Asia when the North Atlantic Oscillation was in a negative phase, and encountered the enhanced Siberia High, which probably led to increased precipitation. In the period 1910-1950 AD, the lake was shallow and the regional climate was unstable, with high temperatures and humidity. In the last ~15-20 years, human activities caused an increase in sediment magnetic susceptibility, and heavy metal and total phosphorus concentrations in the sediment were substantially enriched. Mean annual temperature displays a warming trend over the past 50 years, and the lowest temperature was observed in the 1950s. There has been an increase in annual total precipitation since the 1990s. The combined influences of climate and human activity on the lake environment during this period were faithfully recorded in sediments of Chaiwopu Lake. This study provides a scientific basis for environmental management and protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined climate variability at two timescales for northern Xinjiang, China: one is of the past 500 years using dendrochronology data and the other is of the past 50 years using meteorological station data. The regression models built from the 50-year period were used to reconstruct the climate of the 500-year period. The results indicate that climate underwent many alternating warm-cold and wet-dry periods in the past 500 years. For the 50-year period, we applied the Mann-Kendall jump test to data from 48 meteorological stations to identify possible transition points of temperature and precipitation. For this period, we also analyzed the impacts of latitude, altitude, slope aspect, and human activities on climate variability, aiming to recognize major factors that influence regional climate variability. The results show a warming and wetting trend in the recent 50 years in northern Xinjiang. We determined that natural pattern variability is dominant in the long-term climate variability in the region, but human impacts are non-negligible in the past 50 years. Regional climate variability may be associated with or driven by latitude, altitude, ecosystems, topography, and human activities. The study provides an empirical evidence of the unique regional characteristics of inland river basin in an arid area over the global climate change background. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In this study, a process-oriented biogeochemistry model, denitrification-decomposition (DNDC), was employed and adapted to interpret and integrate the field observations that the tested ecosystem was a weak sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) in 2004 but a strong source in 2005 during the growing seasons. Then we applied the model to predict long-term impacts of climate change on carbon (C) dynamics in the semiarid grassland. Materials and methods: To adapt DNDC for the targeted grassland, we modified the default values of several grass parameters such as maximum biomass production, biomass partitions, plant tissue C/N ratio, and accumulative thermal degree days based on local observations. Daily weather data for 2004 and 2005 in conjunction with soil properties and management practices for the location were utilized as inputs to simulate the grass growth and soil C dynamics. The modeled C fluxes were compared with the eddy tower data. Sensitivity tests were conducted with a baseline and twelve alternative climate scenarios of 100 years for the target grassland. Results and discussion: The observed and modeled CO fluxes data were well in agreement ( P < 0.0001), both showing that the grassland shifted from a sink to a source of atmospheric CO from a wet year (2004) to a dry year (2005) over growing season. Simulations of 100 years found that, under the fenced conditions, (1) the tested ecosystem would gain C with the baseline climate conditions at a rate of 200 kg C/ha/year; (2) the warmer and drier climate scenario made the worst case having the lowest grass production with 72 kg C/ha/year lost from the soil carbon pool; and (3) the cooler and wetter climate scenario made the best case having the highest biomass production with 790 kg C/ha/year sequestered in the soil during the simulated 100 years. Conclusions: DNDC model could be used for the prediction of C dynamics in this semiarid grassland ecosystem. Since the ecosystem production is precipitation-limited, a cooler or wetter future climate would substantially elevate the C sequestration capacity of the grassland. However, the C sequestration potential could significantly decrease and even become negative to turn the ecosystem to a source of atmospheric CO if the climate turned to be warmer and/or drier in the coming 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined both long-term climate variability and anthropogenic contributions to current climate change for Xinjiang province of northwest China. Xinjiang encompasses several mountain ranges and inter-mountain basins and is comprised of a northern semiarid region and a more arid southern region. Climate over the last three centuries was reconstructed from tree rings and temperature series were calculated for the past 50 years using weather station data. Three major conclusions from these analyses are: (1) Although temperature varied considerably in Xinjiang over the last 200 years, it was non-directional until the last 50 years when a substantial warming trend occurred; (2) The semiarid North Xinjiang was representative of the northern hemisphere climate, while the more arid South Xinjiang resembled the southern hemisphere climate, meanwhile, (3) The entire Xinjiang province captured the global-scale climate signal. We also compared human contributions to global change between North and South Xinjiang, including land cover/land use, population, and greenhouse gas production. For both regions, urban areas acted as heat islands; and large areas of grassland and forest were converted to barren land, especially in North Xinjiang. Additionally, North Xinjiang also showed larger increase in population and greenhouse gas emissions mainly associated with animal production than those in South Xinjiang. Although Xinjiang province is a geographically coupled mountain–basin system, the two regions have distinct climate patterns and anthropogenic activities related to land cover conversion and greenhouse gas production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been significant variations in wind activity over the past five decades in arid and semiarid areas in China. High wind activity occurred from the 1960s to the 1970s, but wind activity has decreased continuously from the 1980s to the present; as a result, the potential sand transport during the latter period was only 20%-50% of the values during the 1960s and 1970s. Phases of high wind activity were highly consistent with the trends in desertification over the past five decades in arid and semiarid areas in China, but spring precipitation was also a significant factor: rapid desertification during the 1960s and 1970s was due to high wind activity, generally combining with low spring precipitation; subsequent rehabilitation since the 1980s has resulted from the combined effects of low wind activity and higher spring precipitation. Therefore, although modern desertification and rehabilitation processes are being more or less affected by human activities, both processes appear to be more strongly controlled by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Loess Plateau, the transitional zone between humid and arid regions of China, is an important region to examine the regional hydrological cycle and variation in humid and arid regions under global climate change. Aridity index (AI), the ratio of precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (ET0), is an important indicator of regional climate conditions and is also used to classify drylands. In this study, data from 51 national meteorological stations during the period of 1961-2014 were collected to estimate the AI in the Loess Plateau. Results show that a downward trend in annual AI was detected and the boundary of the drylands region based on the AI was expanded across the Loess Plateau over the period of 1961-2014. The spatiotemporal variability of P was the main cause in the AI variations. Furthermore, data analysis suggested the occurrences of the extreme minimum AI values were mostly affected by fluctuations of the two factors (ET0 and P) rather than its corresponding trend during the period. Thus, this study indicated the major driving factor of AI and the relationship between extreme AI values and the global climate anomalies in the Loess Plateau region, and meanwhile, provided an understanding of the impacts of climate change on hydrological cycle in the Loess Plateau of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]