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The long-term effects of ocean warming on prokaryotic communities are unknown because of lack of historical data. We overcame this gap by applying a retrospective molecular analysis to the bacterial community on formalin-fixed samples from the historical Continuous Plankton Recorder archive, which is one of the longest and most geographically extensive collections of marine biological samples in the world. We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance within the plankton-associated bacterial community of the North Sea, where an unprecedented increase in bathing infections related to these bacteria was recently reported. Among environmental variables, increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) has been overexploited in the North Sea since the late 1960s and great concern has been expressed about the decline in cod biomass and recruitment. Here we show that, in addition to the effects of overfishing, fluctuations in plankton have resulted in long-term changes in cod recruitment in the North Sea (bottom-up control). Survival of larval cod is shown to depend on three key biological parameters of their prey: the mean size of prey, seasonal timing and abundance. We suggest a mechanism, involving the match/mismatch hypothesis, by which variability in temperature affects larval cod survival and conclude that rising temperature since the mid-1980s has modified the plankton ecosystem in a way that reduces the survival of young cod. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic oscillations as reflected in atmospheric modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may be seen as a proxy for regulating forces in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Our review highlights the variety of climate processes related to the NAO and the diversity in the type of ecological responses that different biological groups can display. Available evidence suggests that the NAO influences ecological dynamics in both marine and terrestrial systems, and its effects may be seen in variation at the individual, population and community levels. The ecological responses to the NAO encompass changes in timing of reproduction, population dynamics, abundance, spatial distribution and interspecific relationships such as competition and predator-prey relationships. This indicates that local responses to large-scale changes may be more subtle than previously suggested. We propose that the NAO effects may be classified as three types: direct, indirect and integrated. Such a classification will help the design and interpretation of analyses attempting to relate ecological changes to the NAO and, possibly, to climate in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arising from D. G. Boyce, M. R. Lewis & B. Worm 466, 591-596 (2010); Boyce et al. replyPhytoplankton account for approximately 50% of global primary production, form the trophic base of nearly all marine ecosystems, are fundamental in trophic energy transfer and have key roles in climate regulation, carbon sequestration and oxygen production. Boyce et al. compiled a chlorophyll index by combining in situ chlorophyll and Secchi disk depth measurements that spanned a more than 100-year time period and showed a decrease in marine phytoplankton biomass of approximately 1% of the global median per year over the past century. Eight decades of data on phytoplankton biomass collected in the North Atlantic by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, however, show an increase in an index of chlorophyll (Phytoplankton Colour Index) in both the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic basins (Fig. 1), and other long-term time series, including the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT), the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) and the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) also indicate increased phytoplankton biomass over the last 20-50 years. These findings, which were not discussed by Boyce et al., are not in accordance with their conclusions and illustrate the importance of using consistent observations when estimating long-term trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]