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The Younger Dryas-Holocene transition represents a period of significant thermal change, comparable in magnitude to modern warming, yet in a colder context and without the effect of anthropogenic disturbance. This is useful as a reference to tackle how biodiversity is affected by temperature in natural conditions. Here, we addressed the thermal change during this period in a southern Baltic coastal lake (Konarzewo Lake, Poland), as inferred by chironomid remains. We evaluated changes in chironomid communities and used Hill numbers to explore how commonness and rarity underlie biodiversity changes attributable to warming. We found evidence of warming at Konarzewo Lake during the Younger Dryas-Holocene transition, with inferred temperatures in the Younger Dryas period supporting the NW–SE gradient in Younger Dryas summer temperatures across Europe. Chironomid communities drastically changed during the thermal transition. However, Hill numbers showed no response to temperature when rare morphotypes were emphasized (order q = 0) or a weak response when they were balanced with common morphotypes (order q = 1). Hill number of order q = 2, emphasizing the most common morphotypes, consistently increased with temperature across different sample sizes or coverages. This illustrates how common morphotypes, rather than the rare ones, may boost biodiversity facing warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) are an important wood functional trait that determine trees' ability to adapt to climatic changes. Here, we use a large tree-ring database of 11 species from 89 sites across eight European countries, covering a climatic gradient from the Mediterranean to northern Europe, to analyze how climate variations drive IADF formation. We found that IADF occurrence increases nonlinearly with ring width in both gymnosperms and angiosperms and decreases with altitude and age. Recently recorded higher mean annual temperatures facilitate the formation of IADFs in almost all the studied species. Precipitation plays a significant role in inducing IADFs in species that exhibit drought tolerance capability, and a growth pattern known as bimodal growth. Our findings suggest that species with bimodal growth patterns growing in western and southern Europe will form IADFs more frequently, as an adaptation to increasing temperatures and droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hibernation is one of the most important behaviours of bats of the temperate zone. During winter, when little food or liquid water is available, hibernation in torpor lowers metabolic costs. However, the timing of emergence from hibernation is crucial for the resumption of the reproductive process in spring. Here, we investigate the spring emergence of six bat species or pairs of bat species of the genera Myotis and Plecotus at five hibernation sites in Central Europe over 5 years. Using generalized additive Poisson models (GAPMs), we analyze the influence of weather conditions (air and soil temperature, atmospheric pressure, atmospheric pressure trend, rain, wind, and cloud cover) as predictors of bat activity and separate these extrinsic triggers from residual motivation to emerge from hibernation (extrinsic factors not studied; intrinsic motivation). Although bats in a subterranean hibernaculum are more or less cut off from the outside world, all species showed weather dependence, albeit to varying degrees, with air temperature outside the hibernaculum having a significant positive effect in all species. The residual, potentially intrinsic motivation of species to emerge from their hibernacula corresponds to their general ecological adaptation, such as trophic specialization and roosting preferences. It allows the definition of three functional groups (high, medium and low residual activity groups) according to the degree of weather dependence of spring activity. A better knowledge of the interplay of extrinsic triggers and residual motivation (e.g., internal zeitgebers) for spring emergence will help to understand the flexibility of a species to adapt to a changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Condensation trails (contrails) from aircraft exhausts and contrail cirrus clouds play a significant role in the atmosphere's radiation balance and the climate. The aim of this study is to analyse the physical properties of contrails with the use of satellite data and determine the atmospheric conditions favoring their formation and persistence. The contrails are detected on satellite images provided by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) radiometer onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites, using a modified version of the contrail detection algorithm by Mannstein et al. Int J Remote Sens 20(8):1641–1660. (1999) for the year 2016. The study area covers central and western Europe. Five contrail detection hotspots are located, with contrail density depending on time of day and season. The length of the detected contrails ranges between 225 and 292.5 km and the mean width between 5.1 and 8.1 km. The spatial contrail cover reaches up to 0.085% of the scene, with larger values being detected between 8 and 10 UTC and during winter. Results of the comparison with the ERA-5 reanalysis database show that contrail formation and persistence is favored in ice saturated areas (RHI≈100%), when the air temperature is between 204 and 232 Κ (− 69.2 to − 41.2 °C) and the specific humidity between 0.025 and 0.0625 g/kg. The favorable wind direction and speed lie between W and SW (240–300°) and 10 and 30 m/s, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands perform many important ecosystem functions at both the local and global scale, including hydrologic and climatic regulation. Although peatlands often act as climatic microrefugia, they have rarely been the subject of long-term microclimatic studies. In this study, we aimed to compare the local climatic conditions of a mid-forest mire to that of an open area and examine the differences in microclimates within the mire based on plant community diversity, shading, and water table depths. The peatland studied in this work was significantly cooler than the reference site, mainly due to a higher decline in nighttime air temperatures. However, the daily maximum air temperature near the ground was often higher. We also noticed that microclimates significantly differed within the studied peatland. Wet and shaded microsites were cooler than the sites having a lower water level and receiving higher amounts of solar radiation. The results of the study suggest that peatlands have locally cooler climates, and thus can serve as climate change refugia. These findings can help us interpret reconstructed data from the peat archive, and, when combined with experiments, identify tipping points for peatland ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of long-lasting severe heat stress, such as in July–August 2003, July 2010, or in April–May 2018 has been one of the biggest meteorological threats in Europe in recent years. The paper focuses on the biometeorological and mortality effects of the hot June that was observed in Central Europe in 2019. The basis of the study was hourly and daily Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) values at meteorological stations in Poland for June 2019. The average monthly air temperature and UTCI values from 1951 to 2018 were analysed as background. Grosswetterlagen calendar of atmospheric circulation was used to assess synoptic conditions of heat wave. Several heat strain measures were applied : net heat storage (S), modelled heart rate (HR), sultriness (HSI), and UTCI index. Actual total mortality (TM) and modelled strong heat-related mortality (SHRM) were taken as indicators of biometeorological consequences of the hot June in 2019. The results indicate that prolonged persistence of unusually warm weather in June 2019 was determined by the synoptic conditions occurring over the European region and causing advection of tropical air. They led to the emergence of heat waves causing 10% increase in TM and 5 times bigger SHRM then in preceding 10 years. Such increase in SHRM was an effect of overheating and overload of circulatory system of human organism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current warming of climate has led to an enhancement of the extreme temperature risks threatening various systems. Following that, we analysed the progress of the main type of the temperature-extreme weather events—heatwaves (HWs). We focused on the area of the Western Carpathians (Central Europe), since the Carpathian Mountains are widely recognised as an important biodiversity hot-spot particularly for mountain species in Europe. The HWs were identified for a range of elevations from low to high altitudes including a high mountain station. We used the percentile threshold-based calculation of HW, which in comparison to those using absolute thresholds allows for revealing the possible threats of climate warming extremes at the range of altitudes. We observed the HWs based on the maximum (HWMAX) and average (HWAVG) daily air temperatures in June–August during the period of 30 years (1989–2018) and we characterised them by the strength, frequency, and duration of the longest HW event. The Mann-Kendal trend test of these heatwave characteristics was significantly positive (p < 0.05) at most of stations throughout the region of Western Carpathians. At the high mountain station, particularly the maximum temperature exceedance increased, indicated by significant positive trends of HWMAX in strength (p = 0.02), frequency (p = 0.01), and duration of the longest event (p = 0.02). The majority of the strongest HWs occurring across Europe over the last three decades hit the area of Western Carpathians. More importantly, the area experienced the regional HWs, severity of which was comparable to those of exceptionally strong HWs, although these regional HWs were less important from the large-scale aspect. The greatest intensification of HWs is evident particularly in the last decade, although the longest HWMAX event from 1994 was not exceeded. Our results show potentially enhanced HW-induced stress to organisms as a consequence of the coincidence of HWMAX and HWAVG of the comparable strength during the last decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of research involved the comparison of daily and seasonal courses of thermal stress occurring in Central Europe depending on the inflowing air mass. The analysis used data from Warsaw (1991–2000), including air temperature (°C), water vapour pressure (hPa), wind speed (m s−1) and cloud cover (%). Universal thermal climate index was calculated and subsequently averaged for the individual months and four types of atmospheric air masses: polar maritime (mP), arctic(A), polar continental (cP) and tropical (T). The studies analysed differences in daily patterns of the averaged values of universal thermal climate index between air masses and determined the frequency of days with various types of thermal stress in individual air masses. The analyses indicated that under the conditions of Central Europe, the highest daily variance of biothermal conditions occurs between the masses of cP and T in the spring and autumn. Considerably greater diversity of biothermal conditions was observed between the masses during daytime compared with nighttime, especially in the warm half of the year. The thermal stress, which can be encountered in Central Europe, ranges from an "extreme cold stress" in winter at night and early morning hours to "very strong heat stress" in summer at noon. Extreme thermal stress is related primarily to the masses of cP, A and T. The most optimal biothermal conditions occur during the advection of mP air. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the first part, this work reports that during the global "anthropopause" period, that was imposed in March and April 2020 for limiting the spread of COVID-19, the concentrations of basic air pollutants over Europe were reduced by up to 70%. During May and June, the gradual lift of the stringent measures resulted in the recovery of these reductions with pollution concentrations approaching the levels before the lockdown by the end of June 2020. In the second part, this work examines the alleged correlations between the reported cases of COVID-19 and temperature, humidity and particulate matter for March and April 2020 in Europe. It was found that decreasing temperatures and relative humidity with increasing concentrations of particulate matter are correlated with an increase in the number of reported cases during these 2 months. However, when these calculations were repeated for May and June, we found a remarkable drop in the significance of the correlations which leads us to question the generally accepted inverse relation between pandemics and air temperature at least during the warmer months. Such a relationship could not be supported in our study for SARS-CoV-2 virus and the question remains open. In the third and last part of this work, we examine the question referring to the origin of pandemics. In this context we have examined the hypothesis that the observed climate warming in Siberia and the Arctic and the thawing of permafrost could result to the release of trapped in the permafrost pathogens in the atmosphere. We find that although such relations cannot be directly justified, they present a possible horrifying mechanism for the origin of viruses in the future during the developing global warming of our planet in the decades to come. Overall the findings of our study indicate that: (1) the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in Europe during the "anthropopause" period of March and April 2020 was significant, but when the lockdown measures were raised the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants quickly recovered to pre-pandemic levels and therefore any possible climatic feedbacks were negligible; (2) no robust relationship between atmospheric parameters and the spread of COVID-19 cases can be justified in the warmer part of the year and (3) more research needs to be done regarding the possible links between climate change and the release of new pathogens from thawing of permafrost areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remarkable climate anomalies occurred in Europe in recent years, but the reasons are not entirely disclosed. This entails further exploring the physical mechanism of anomalous climate variability over Europe on the basis of previous studies. Using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and CMAP precipitation datasets, we investigated the relationship between the thermal condition of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and precipitation over Europe during summer and related mechanisms behind through observational analyses and simulation experiments. The results show that the summer TP surface air temperature (SAT) is significantly correlated with the simultaneous precipitation over the region from eastern Ukraine to the North Caucasus (EUNC; 43°–51° N, 34°–46° E) during the period 1979–2017. The effect of anomalous TP heating plays, to some extent, an active role in linking the summer TP SAT with EUNC precipitation. The variability of the TP SAT is a result of the anomalous TP heating, but it can reflect the variability in temperature of a thick tropospheric air column over the TP well. Corresponding to higher (lower) TP SAT, the higher (lower) temperature anomaly appears over the TP and extends westwards through the transport of anomalous temperature fluxes from the TP to the EUNC regions in the upper troposphere, resulting in the expansion (withdrawal) of the South Asian high (SAH) and associated less (more) precipitation over the EUNC region. Numerical simulations basically reproduce the above-mentioned physical process, which confirms that, through stimulating the variability of upper-tropospheric temperatures over the TP and a larger area to its west and associated upstream large-scale atmospheric circulation, the summer TP's thermal condition can modulate and expand the impact of the SAH to the EUNC region and therefore affect the concurrent precipitation in situ. This study implies an importance of the thermal anomaly of the TP to the variability of EUNC precipitation during summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly every study dealing with temperature extremes underscores the lack of a universal and broadly used method of identifying such events. The most popular are relative methods, which are based on the empirical distribution of temperature at each location (i.e., percentiles). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the various percentile-based methods of defining hot days on the analysis of their frequency of occurrence, trends, and geographic patterns in summer in Europe. The basis for the research consists of daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) values of air temperature for 1961–2017 for Europe obtained from the E-OBS database. A hot day occurs when air temperature exceeds the 90th percentile–based threshold. These thresholds are determined using the following: (I) various temperature metrics (TX and TN), (II) various baseline periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010), and (III) different timeframes within the year that the percentile is calculated for (summer season, separate summer months, and each calendar day). Our results indicate that the use of different variants of the percentile-based definition leads to differences in the geographic patterns of frequencies of and trends in summer hot days in Europe. The differences are especially substantial within the results obtained using various temperature metrics and baseline periods, and they are relatively small when different timeframes within the year that the percentile is calculated for are considered. On the example of the case study, we also show how the use of different research approaches may affect the intensity and spatial extent of an extreme temperature event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the paper was the determination of the circulation conditions of occurrence of strong and very strong frost in Central Europe. A frost day was defined as a day with the minimum temperature lower than 0 °C and maximum temperature higher than 0 °C. Moreover, a division of frost was performed in terms of value of minimum temperature, resulting in the designation of mild frost (up to − 2.0 °C), moderate frost (from − 2.1 to − 4 °C), strong frost (from − 4.1 to − 6 °C) and very strong frost (< − 6 °C). The study was based on data from the years 1966–2015 from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, Deutscher Wetterdienst and National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). The analysis of baric conditions employed values of pressure at sea level, height of isobaric surface of 500 hPa and air temperature at a level of 850 hPa, as well as their anomalies. The spatial analysis showed that the number of frost days in spring and autumn increased from the west to the east of Central Europe. A decrease in the number of frost days, however, is observed over the prevailing area. Average conditions favouring the occurrence of strong and very strong frost both in spring and autumn were related to higher than average pressure at sea level over the prevailing area of the Euro-Atlantic sector. Such baric conditions caused advections of cool air masses from the northern sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969–2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 °C). Using the 2009–2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about + 1.29 °C and + 2.64 °C with air temperature increases of + 2 °C and + 4 °C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the research was to identify connections between the occurrence of heat load across Poland and large-scale factors, which will allow statistical models to be derived that are useful to describe bioclimatic conditions in Poland in the summer. Atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe and near-surface air temperature over the central part of Europe were considered. The monthly frequency of the occurrence of combined "moderate, strong, very strong and extreme heat stress" based on the assessment scale of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in the summer months accounted for 6% to more than 30% of all cases. The statistical downscaling procedure of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) with respect to the period 1971–2000 was applied to extract the main modes of large-scale factors and their local responses. The greatest explained variance of local field response to atmospheric circulation as well as to near-surface air temperature is above 70%. Warm air flow from the east and from the southeast has the strongest influence on the increase in frequency of the occurrence of heat stress on human beings in Poland. The spatial differentiation of the air temperature anomaly over central Europe is an important determinant of the occurrence of heat stress in Poland. The validation of constructed models encompassed the periods 1951–1970 and 2001–2010. The best reliability of results was reached for the reconstructed series in July. The results are less useful in June and August and in the coastal region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the air temperature ( T) across Europe and increase the frequency, duration and magnitude of severe heat stress events. Heat stress events are generally associated with clear-sky conditions and high T, which give rise to high radiant heat load, i.e. mean radiant temperature ( T). In urban environments, T is strongly influenced by urban geometry. The present study examines the effect of urban geometry on daytime heat stress in three European cities (Gothenburg in Sweden, Frankfurt in Germany and Porto in Portugal) under present and future climates, using T as an indicator of heat stress. It is found that severe heat stress occurs in all three cities. Similar maximum daytime T is found in open areas in all three cities despite of the latitudinal differences in average daytime T. In contrast, dense urban structures like narrow street canyons are able to mitigate heat stress in the summer, without causing substantial changes in T in the winter. Although the T averages are similar for the north-south and east-west street canyons in each city, the number of hours when T exceeds the threshold values of 55.5 and 59.4 °C-used as indicators of moderate and severe heat stress-in the north-south canyons is much higher than that in the east-west canyons. Using statistically downscaled data from a regional climate model, it is found that the study sites were generally warmer in the future scenario, especially Porto, which would further exacerbate heat stress in urban areas. However, a decrease in solar radiation in Gothenburg and Frankfurt reduces T in the spring, while the reduction in T is somewhat offset by increasing T in other seasons. It suggests that changes in the T under the future scenario are dominated by variations in T. Nonetheless, the intra-urban differences remain relatively stable in the future. These findings suggest that dense urban structure can reduce daytime heat stress since it reduces the number of hours of high T in the summer and does not cause substantial changes in average and minimum T in the winter. In dense urban settings, a more diverse urban thermal environment is also preferred to compensate for reduced solar access in the winter. The extent to which the urban geometry can be optimized for the future climate is also influenced by local urban characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper focuses on exceptionally hot summers (EHS) as a manifestation of contemporary climate warming. The study identifies EHS occurrences in Central and Eastern Europe and describes the characteristic features of the region's thermal conditions. Average air temperatures in June, July and August were considered, as well as the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding 25, 30 and 35 °C, and with a minimum temperature greater than >20 °C, as recorded at 59 weather stations in 1951-2010. Extremely hot summers are defined as having an average temperature equal to or greater than the long-term average plus 2 SD. A calendar of EHSs was compiled and their spatial extent identified. The region experienced 12 EHSs, which occurred in a given year at 5 % or more stations (1972, 1981, 1988, 1992, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2010). The EHS frequency of occurrence was found to be clearly on an increase. Indeed, only one EHS occurred during the first 30 years, but these occurred five times during the last 10 years of the study period. Their geographical extent varied both in terms of location and size. EHSs were observed at 57 out of the total of 59 weather stations in the study (the exceptions were Pecora and Cluj). The average air temperature of EHSs tended to exceed the relevant long-term average by 2-4 °C. The summer of 2010 was among the hottest (temperature anomaly 5.5-6 °C) and spatially largest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric measurements over 5 years (2005-2010) at two sites in Łódź, central Poland have been analyzed to develop a better understanding of turbulence in urban areas. Fast response wind velocity, temperature, humidity and CO concentration were measured using sonic anemometers and gas analyzers, placed on narrow masts at 37 and 42 m above the ground. The measurements were used to calculate standard deviations of each parameter, and were then normalized according to local Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and plotted as a function of stability parameter ζ = z′/ L. Results for the wind components show typical scaling with a power law with exponent ±1/3 in the free convection limit, and that approaches a constant value close to neutral stratification. For stable conditions, the constant value in the neutral limit remains the same for stability parameters lower than 0.1-0.2, then increases. The normalized standard deviation of temperature fits the −1/3 law in the free convection limit, approaching a constant value within a stable limit. However, it exhibits hyperbolic characteristics for close to neutral stratification. The normalized standard deviations for humidity and CO concentration exhibit scaling similar to the wind components in the unstable regime and remain constant in the stable domain. The results for the wind components and for temperature are in the range of various functions found in other studies. The absolute values for humidity and CO concentration seem to be slightly higher, but only single examples of such investigations can be found in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines two methods for classification of daily pressure-pattern sequences (extended PCA and extended cluster analysis) and evaluates whether sequence classification is more suitable to describe surface air-temperature conditions in Europe. For this purpose, sequences of daily sea-level pressure fields are classified for each month of the year using a wide range of class numbers (2–40) and sequence lengths from 1 to 6 days. In each case, the classification is used to reconstruct temperature variability in 5°×5° grid-boxes throughout Europe for the period 1850–2003 in order to compare the circulation type based reconstruction to monthly observations for skill estimation. Results show that extended PCA leads to more dynamic pattern sequences for subordinated classes, but also that it is limited in skill, because classes of very low frequencies are generated. In contrast, extended cluster analysis offers higher skill levels for temperature downscaling. However, both methods can benefit from using sequences instead of single days for classification, especially for continental regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anomalies of mean air temperature of 12 consecutive months were detected recently at a number of spatial scales: from local via national and continental, to hemispheric. At all these spatial scales, pre-2007 records were exceeded by considerable margins. The recent rise in the mean temperature of 12 consecutive months at several scales has remained largely unnoticed, because the 12-month means are seldom analyzed. Broad attention is typically focused on monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures. Analysis of shifted 12-month periods helps spot peculiar 12-month episodes with remarkable temperature anomalies that do not coincide with a calendar year. Introducing 12-month running mean temperatures into the global warming debate can prove useful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using temperature and pressure records from Czech meteorological stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis series, we tested for the presence of detectable nonlinearity in univariate and multivariate climatic time series. The method of surrogate data was utilized for nonlinearity detection – results of nonlinear prediction for the original series were compared to the results for series whose nonlinear structure was randomized. The prediction was done by means of local linear models in the reconstructed phase space. None or very weak nonlinearity was found in the single (univariate) series, and pressure series generally exhibited stronger nonlinearity than series of temperature (daily mean, minimum or maximum). Distinct nonlinearity was found in all tested multivariate systems, especially when both temperatures and pressures were used simultaneously to form the phase space. Nonlinearity tests were carried out for 30-year and 10-year-long datasets and nonlinear behavior was generally more apparent in the longer versions. In addition, the tested systems showed more substantial nonlinearity when the success of short-range prediction was used as the discriminating statistic; with an increase of the prediction time, detectable nonlinearity became weaker and it disappeared completely for long-term prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instrumental observations and reconstructions of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past ~150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]