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Since securities market is subject to a great deal of uncertainty and complexity, the return of securities cannot be accurately estimated by historical data. In this case, it must use experts' knowledge and judgment. Therefore, we investigate portfolio selection problems in such uncertain environments. First, this paper regards the rate of return on security as an uncertain variable which obeys linear uncertainty distribution, and then provides the analytical expressions of the corresponding risk, return and risk index in the uncertain portfolio selection environment. Afterwards, we construct three types uncertain portfolio selection models with uncertain constraint, namely, the minimizing risk, the maximizing return and the maximizing belief degree. Meanwhile, in order to more intuitively reflect the investor's sense of loss, three types uncertain portfolio selection models considering both uncertain constraint and risk index are also constructed. These models are transformed into corresponding deterministic models. Finally, through an example analysis, this paper obtains the portfolio selection strategies under different objectives, compares the results under different models, and analyzes the sensitivity of the parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today's banking industry achieving sustainable profitability necessitates by integrating economic, environmental, and social factors due to pressing environmental concerns. This study investigates the impact of sustainability on financial performance in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) banking sector, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Bootstrapping ARDL approaches on data from 2002 to 2022. The analysis revealed that economic sustainability, environmental and social sustainability exhibit a significant impact on financial performance in the short run and the long run at a (p < 0.05). 1% of economic sustainability activities increases Return on Assets (ROA) by 0.73 and Return on Equity (ROE) by 0.64. 1% of environmental sustainability activities decreases ROA by −0.28 and increases ROE by 0.35. 1% of social sustainability activities increases ROA by 0.47 and ROE by 0.42. To improve long-term profitability, this study emphasizes how crucial it is for the banking industry in the UAE to strategically integrate sustainability principles. These findings highlight the need to promote sustainability in the banking sector for environmental improvement, offering insights for UAE regulators and stimulating additional research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managerial ability and managerial efforts play key role in the performance of business enterprises. However, this indicator is not directly observable. The current paper focuses on estimating managerial ability in the context of the Indian and Iranian general insurance sectors. The study is based on 140 firm-year observations in India and 140 firm-year observations in Iran spread over 7 years (2012–13 to 2018–19). For measuring managerial ability, we have used a three-stage procedure that involves the estimation of insurer-wise efficiency using Data Envelopment analysis (DEA) in the first stage and then regression of the logarithm of technical efficiency on a set of explanatory variables. In the final stage, we have estimated managerial ability from regression residuals (the difference between the observed and fitted values of insurer efficiency). In order to test the validity of the relationship between return on equity and managerial ability we use the general additive model (GAM). Our results confirmed that there is a positive relationship between return on equity and managerial ability. Our findings also revealed that the mean technical and output allocative efficiencies and managerial ability of Iranian markets highly fluctuated with a high variance. In contrast, these indicators did not fluctuate much in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corporate governance relies significantly on the board of directors, who act as custodians of shareholders' interests. The dynamics of social connections between Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and board members form a critical element that influences information exchange within this vital governance structure. This study seeks to assess the impact of these social connections on organizational performance. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the professional backgrounds of CEOs and board members to measure the extent of their social connections. Employing multiple regression analysis with robust error corrections, we considered essential economic and financial metrics, including Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA). Our findings reveal that professional social connections have a positive influence on ROA (β = 0.0230|p-value ≤ 0.05) and EBITDA (β = 420,517,1|p-value ≤ 0.05), while educational connections exhibited no significant effect, and familial connections were found to adversely affect EBITDA (β = − 516,307,0|p-value ≤ 0.05). This study highlights the real influence of social connections on firm performance, shedding light on the complex interplay between social dynamics and corporate success. These insights contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of corporate governance and the factors driving organizational performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Glasgow Climate Pact articulated the vital importance of renewables in reducing emissions on the way to net-zero pledges. During the power sector transition, foreseeing conditions affecting the plausibility of pathway options is crucial for specifying an optimal system development strategy. This study examines the net energy performance of nine decarbonisation global energy transition scenarios until 2050 by applying a newly developed systemwide energy return on investment (EROI) model. All scenarios result in an EROI value above the upper limit of the net energy cliff, expected to be around 10. EROI trends heavily depend on transition paths. Once achieving higher renewable energy shares begin requiring significant enabling technologies, EROI continually declines as the shares increase. Shortening the transition period leads to a sharper declining of EROI, which stabilises after achieving 100% renewables. The vulnerability arising from natural gas and oil depletions may have worst impact on EROI of fossil fuels dominated systems. Here, the authors adopt systemwide EROI to assess the sustainability risks of nine global energy transition scenarios. The EROI of fossil fuel dominated scenarios tend to approach the upper limit of the net energy cliff, posing higher sustainability risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research investigates the determinants of private banks profitability in Egypt. The determinants are bank specific (liquidity, capital adequacy, bank size, asset structure, credit risk, and non-performing loans), industry-specific (industry concentration and banking industry development), and macroeconomics (economic growth and inflation). It is an empirical study applying a quantitative method for data analysis and the type of data is secondary data. The sample size of the research is 15 private banks on the Egyptian and the panel data for the research is 2013–2022. The multiple linear regression analysis using the Eviews 12 application as an analytical tool by applying generalized least squares model. The profitability of private banks, which is the dependent factor, is calculated by two measurements, Return on Assets and Return on Equity with ten determinants of profitability as independent variables. Results indicate that capital adequacy, economic growth bank size, and inflation has a positive significant effect on private banks profitability in Egypt. While NPL, liquidity and credit risk have significant negative effect on private banks profitability in Egypt. Based on the results recommendations are provided for bank management to maximize their profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ichimoku Kinkohyo or Ichimoku Cloud Chart is one of the most popular technical indicators used by traders all over the world. However, its profitability is heavily influenced by the market environment, to which it is applied. Furthermore, the COVID-19 outbreak may have an impact on the market environment as well as the performance of all technical indicators. This study is the first to look into the profitability of Ichimoku-based trading rules in the Vietnamese stock market in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak. More particularly, the COVID-19 outbreak has a positive influence on the performance of this strategy when considering the entire market as well as a variety of industries including real estate industry, food and beverage industry, resource industry, and automotive and electronic components industry. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the return on investment obtained per each transaction using the Ichimoku-based strategy increased by roughly 8 - 9 % in the pandemic period. Compared to the Buy-and-hold method, the Ichimoku-based strategy could slightly increase Accumulated return while posing a lower risk. The findings indicate that the Ichimoku-based strategy is applicable to the Vietnam stock market, regardless of the adverse effects of the pandemic on the industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To facilitate return to work (RTW) in patients with stroke, a health and employment support (HES) program was started at Rosai hospitals in Japan. This study aimed to determine the rate of RTW in patients with stroke under this support program. We collected demographic and clinical data of patients with stroke from the implementation reports of the HES program. The program provided coordinated dual support, such as acute medical treatments, and stroke and vocational rehabilitation on the medical side, and management and support on the workplace side. The primary endpoint was RTW. Successful and unsuccessful RTW were examined using the χ2 test. The RTW rate curves were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method. We enrolled 483 patients; 355 (73%) and 128 (27%) patients had successful and unsuccessful RTW, respectively. Stroke types, neurological findings, and activities of daily living were significant factors for RTW. The Kaplan–Meier method revealed that left hemiplegia, right hemiplegia, and neuropsychological deficits, except for combined disability (hemiplegia with neuropsychological deficits), had similar RTW curves with an RTW rate of > 70%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investment in Strep A vaccine R&D is disproportionately low relative to the large burden of Strep A diseases globally. This study presents a novel Strep A vaccine global demand and financial forecast model with estimates of potential global demand and associated revenue and profits for a hypothetical Strep A vaccine as well as a net present value (NPV) analysis of return on capital investments required to develop the vaccine. A positive NPV was calculated for a variety of developer scenarios and target populations, including the global rollout of the vaccine in private and public markets by a multinational pharmaceutical corporation and a staged rollout by a developing country vaccine manufacturer for both infant and child populations. The results suggest there is a viable commercial market for a Strep A vaccine. It is hoped that this study will help to inform industry decision-making and drive increased prioritization of, and investment in, Strep A vaccine research and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal policy is an important tool to facilitate green recovery of the economy. This paper uses the low-energy-intensive incentive support policy implemented by the Chinese government as a trial and explores the impact of fiscal policy on the green recovery of firms. Using Chinese listed-firm data from 2019Q1 to 2021Q1, we use the difference-in-differences method to estimate policy effects, leading to several findings. First, our fundamental results show that the government's low-energy-intensive support policy can significantly improve low-energy-intensive firm performance more than that of high-energy-consuming firms, with respect to return on assets, return on equity and Tobin's Q. Second, regarding the mechanisms involved, our estimation results indicate that the low-energy-intensive support policy works by alleviating financial constraints to improve firm performance. Third, our empirical findings indicate that low-energy-intensive support policy can increase current ratio, liquidity and cash flow, resulting in improved firm financial resources. Finally, the fiscal support policy reduces management and financial costs, thus improving firm performance. Our findings recommend adoption of well-designed fiscal policies in regions where green economic recovery is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infeasible solutions are helpful for finding the feasible regions, but how many feasible and infeasible solutions should be invested to achieve the optimal search efficiency remains to be further studied. Combined with the recently proposed collaborative constrained multi-objective framework, the contributions of the helper population and original population in different types of CMOPs are discussed. It is unreasonable to assign equal resources to these two populations in different CMOPs and different searching stages. This paper aims to investigate resource allocation in a constraint environment to efficiently utilize the limited resources and obtain a better performance. Therefore, the concept of return on investment (ROI) is first introduced to measure the contributions of two populations, and then guide the population size allocation (APS). To prevent the ROI from continuously declining as the population size decreases, an evolutionary resource allocation strategy (AER) is proposed to adjust their evolutionary state according to the cooperative relationship, and to further increase their ROI and again compete for population size, to maximize the evolutionary efficiency of the two populations in competition and cooperation. The proposed CCMODRA is compared with seven popular algorithms that cover three types of CMOEAs and test them on three benchmarks that cover four types of CMOPs. The comprehensive performance of CCMODRA is better than the other seven CMOEAs on 71% of the 3-objective CDTLZs, 57% of the 5-objective CDTLZs and 46% of the MWs. The effectiveness of the APS and AER strategies are verified on generating contribution solutions and DOC test problems. In addition, the total profit obtained by CCMODRA in the knapsack problem with capacity constraints is improved by 0.2% to 216% compared with the other seven algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) leads to 600,000 deaths and 600 million cases of pharyngitis annually. Although long a promising target for vaccine development, how much funding should be allocated to develop a Strep A vaccine is unclear. We aim to calculate the optimal amount of global spending for Strep A vaccine development, the resulting benefits, and the social rate of return on this spending. We develop a model of optimal spending, from a global societal perspective, on research and development (R&D) for vaccines and treatments. The model takes as inputs total harm from the disease, the probability an R&D project succeeds, the cost of a project, and the fraction of total harm a success alleviates. Based on these inputs the model outputs an optimal amount of spending and a rate of return. We calibrate the model for Strep A. Optimal spending is estimated to be 2020 USD33 billion. This spending leads to 2020 USD1.63 trillion in benefits and a real return of 22.3% per year for thirty years. Sensitivity shows an optimal spending range of 15.9 billion to 58.5 billion, a benefits range of 1.6 trillion to 37.9 trillion, and a return range of 18.0–48.2%. Investment in a Strep A vaccine could create enormous benefits for comparatively little cost. It represents one of the highest return uses of public spending. Policy can promote Strep A vaccine development through direct funding of projects and by promoting financial mechanisms that allow the private sector to diversify its R&D investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Growth Value Model (GVM) proposed theoretical closed form formulas consisting of Return on Equity (ROE) and the Price-to-Book value ratio (P/B) for fair stock prices and expected rates of return. Although regression analysis can be employed to verify these theoretical closed form formulas, they cannot be explored by classical quintile or decile sorting approaches with intuition due to the essence of multi-factors and dynamical processes. This article uses visualization techniques to help intuitively explore GVM. The discerning findings and contributions of this paper is that we put forward the concept of the smart frontier, which can be regarded as the reasonable lower limit of P/B at a specific ROE by exploring fair P/B with ROE-P/B 2D dynamical process visualization. The coefficients in the formula can be determined by the quantile regression analysis with market data. The moving paths of the ROE and P/B in the current quarter and the subsequent quarters show that the portfolios at the lower right of the curve approaches this curve and stagnates here after the portfolios are formed. Furthermore, exploring expected rates of return with ROE-P/B-Return 3D dynamical process visualization, the results show that the data outside of the lower right edge of the "smart frontier" has positive quarterly return rates not only in the t + 1 quarter but also in the t + 2 quarter. The farther away the data in the t quarter is from the "smart frontier", the larger the return rates in the t + 1 and t + 2 quarter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to address Climate Change and energy dependency challenges, hydrogen (H2) is emerging as a promising energy carrier. Studies related to its production have conceptualized it as green (GH2), clean, renewable (RH2), ecological, and sustainable (SH2). The aim of this research is to deepen the understanding of the GH2 concept and to state boundaries between different terms. To reach this objective, a bibliometric analysis of publications indexed in SCOPUS is launched. Also, in order to assess the potential of renewable energy sources (RES) for GH2 production, a review of the meta-analysis literature on the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) ratio as regards these RES is performed. Additionally, an analysis of main national strategies on GH2 is launched. Results indicate that the GH2 concept is gaining remarkable relevance, while the keyword maps show no significant differences between SH2, RH2 and GH2. EROI reveals low average values for the different biomass energy production processes. For their part, GH2 national strategies focus mainly on solar and wind technologies, albeit leaving the door open to biomass, where EROI could become an adequate metric to guide these strategies towards a low carbon energy path. Although the role of biomass may become fundamental in this energy transition process, given its low EROI values and considering that it is not a totally clean RES, it should be indexed as RH2, but not always as GH2. Finally, a proposal that guides a more appropriate use of the term GH2 is made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When investing in new stocks, it is difficult to predict returns and risks in a general way without the support of historical data. Therefore, a portfolio optimization model with an uncertain rate of return is proposed. On this basis, prospect theory is used for reference, and then the uncertain return portfolio optimization model is established from the perspective of expected utility maximization. An improved gray wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is designed because of the complex nonsmooth and nonconcave characteristics of the model. The results show that the GWO algorithm is superior to the traditional particle swarm optimization algorithm and genetic algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Online apparel industry is suffering from a major issue of return, with a high rate of return for apparels that are sold online it becomes necessary to investigate the probable reasons of return in online apparel industry. The objective of the study is to develop a multi-criterion approach for evaluation of various factors that are responsible for the return of apparels purchased online in context of India. A total of 34 factors were identified through literature review and discussion with experienced experts from the fashion domain. In this study, best–worst method has been employed to prioritize and rank the factors for online return more effectively. Sensitivity analysis has been carried out to check the robustness of the proposed model of the study. The findings of the study show that fit and size variation, defects, found a better product (wisdom of purchase), wrong product delivery, lenient return policy and value for money were identified as crucial factors for online apparel return. The present study provides valuable research implications which can be used for retail policy improvements and also to online selling strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The return rates of risky assets in financial markets are usually assumed as random variables or fuzzy variables. For the ever-changing real asset market, this assumption may not always be satisfactory. Thus, it is sometimes more realistic to take the return rates as uncertain variables. However, for the existing works on multi-period uncertain portfolio selection problems, they do not find analytic optimal solutions. In this paper, we propose a method for deriving an analytic optimal solution to a multi-period uncertain portfolio selection problem. First, a new uncertain risk measure is defined to model the investment risk. Then, we formulate a bi-criteria optimization model, where the investment return is maximized, while the investment risk is minimized. On this basis, an equivalent transformation is presented to convert the uncertain bi-criteria optimization problem into an equivalent bi-criteria optimization problem. Then, by applying dynamic programming method, an analytic optimal solution is obtained. Finally, a numerical simulation is carried out to show that the proposed model is realistic and the method being developed is applicable and effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research, we examine empirically the impact of sustainable supply chain practices on financial performances, considering the case of Indian firms. Here, we use a sample of 25 Indian firms listed for their sustainability performances in the Thomson Reuters Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) scores. The sustainability performance data have been accessed from the Bloomberg terminal, where the overall sustainability performance on ESG is measured as a discounted score on ESG considering various controversies on ESG reported for the firm. And for the study, we associate financial data using the profit indicators of firms. We perceive that the sustainable supply chain practices considering environmental, social and governance performances may not positively impact the financial performance measured by the Return on Asset (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE), during the considered period of five years for the study. We construct the empirical model and use Partial Least Square (PLS) regression modeling to analyze the results. The study can be further extended for many Indian firms and for firms across different developing economies, as well. The major implications of this research are to observe for firms and their supply chains whether the implementation of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) practices can help them in achieving financial benefits, along with other competitive advantages. The research is built on the concept and theory of ecological modernization, which suggests for the economic benefits of environmentalism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to measure the impact of financial leverage on the performance of 424 Pakistani nonfinancial listed companies over the 2001–2017 period. Three measures of financial leverage, i.e., short-term debt (STDL), long-term debt (LTDL), and total debt (TLEVR), were applied to examine their impact on performance, i.e., sustainable growth (SGR), Tobin's Q, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on sales (ROS). Robust results obtained using the generalized method of moments (GMM) report a significant negative impact of financial leverage on performance. The results also confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial leverage and performance, indicating that an increase in the financial leverage of Pakistani listed companies increases their performance up to a certain level, and after that, a further increase in financial leverage decreases their performance. The results further suggest that STDL is a main contributing source of debt that causes a higher risk of refinancing for companies and thus negatively affects performance. This study's findings are useful for academics, management, policymakers, and regulators to understand the importance of financial leverage and to choose between STDL and LTDL to fund financial needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stakeholder engagement helps ensure that research is relevant, clinical innovations are responsive, and healthcare services are patient-centered. Objective: Establish and sustain a Veteran engagement board involving older Veterans and caregivers to provide input on aging-related research and clinical demonstration projects. Design and Participants: The Older Veteran Engagement Team (OVET)—a group of eight Veterans and one caregiver who range in age from 62 to 92—was formed in November 2017 and has met monthly since January 2018. The OVET provides feedback on topics that reflect the foci of the VA Eastern Colorado Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center (GRECC) (e.g., physical functioning, hearing health, and emotional wellness/mental health). Ongoing evaluation documents the return on investment of Veteran engagement. Main Measures: The OVET member and provider/investigator meeting evaluations with longitudinal follow-up at 6 and 12 months. Results: Return on investment of Veteran engagement is multi-faceted. For OVET, ROI ranges from grant support to improved healthcare quality/efficiency to social-emotional benefits. To date, funding awards total over $2.3 M for NIH and VA-funded projects to which OVET provided substantive feedback. Documented impacts on healthcare services include reductions in patient wait times, more appropriate utilization of services and increased patient satisfaction. Social-emotional benefits include generativity, as OVET members contribute to improving clinical and community-based supports for other Veterans. The OVET provides an opportunity for older Veterans to share their lived experience with trainees and early career investigators who are preparing for careers serving Veterans. Conclusion: The OVET is similar to other established stakeholder engagement groups; team members offer their individual viewpoints at any stage of research, clinical demonstration, or quality improvement projects. The OVET provides a mechanism for the voice of older Veterans and caregivers to shape aspects of individual projects. Importantly, these projects support patient-centered care and promote the characteristics of an age-friendly healthcare system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Carbon Efficient Index (ICO2) emerged from a joint initiative of the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) with the National Bank for Economic and Social Development, in 2010, through the identification of the market niche, which was made possible by debates on climate change. ICO2 helped participating companies to operate in a so-called low-carbon economy, by monitoring their greenhouse gas emissions. This research performs a comparative analysis between the companies that were part of the ICO2 index and the other companies belonging to the Ibovespa (Brazilian Stock Exchange Index), between the years 2014 and 2018, seeking to identify differences between their economic and financial performance. First, financial indicators—ROIC (return on invested capital), ROE (return on equity), and ROA (return on assets)—were used to compare the performance of the ICO2 and Ibovespa groupings from 2014 to 2018. Second, the Mann–Whitney U test was performed to compare the ROIC, ROE, and ROA performance indicators in the years 2014–2018 for the two groups, ICO2 and Ibovespa. Finally, the cluster analysis was performed for the 2018 indicators. As a result of the analysis, no superior performance was identified for companies belonging to the ICO2 index, corroborating with results from most previous surveys, referenced in this survey. The findings of this study provide an important contribution to the existing research on sustainability in financial markets since there are few available scientific articles that investigate the Brazilian sustainability market using indicators and statistical treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future rice systems must produce more grain while minimizing the negative environmental impacts. A key question is how to orient agricultural research & development (R&D) programs at national to global scales to maximize the return on investment. Here we assess yield gap and resource-use efficiency (including water, pesticides, nitrogen, labor, energy, and associated global warming potential) across 32 rice cropping systems covering half of global rice harvested area. We show that achieving high yields and high resource-use efficiencies are not conflicting goals. Most cropping systems have room for increasing yield, resource-use efficiency, or both. In aggregate, current total rice production could be increased by 32%, and excess nitrogen almost eliminated, by focusing on a relatively small number of cropping systems with either large yield gaps or poor resource-use efficiencies. This study provides essential strategic insight on yield gap and resource-use efficiency for prioritizing national and global agricultural R&D investments to ensure adequate rice supply while minimizing negative environmental impact in coming decades. Increasing rice yield while improving resource use efficiency is of great importance. This study examines cropping systems globally to highlight areas where rice production can be improved by prioritizing R&D strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that the standard notion of residual income (RI) does not fulfill additive coherence. This gives rise to ambiguities and inconsistencies. The pitfall resides in the capital charge, which blends a non-market value with a market rate. We solve the problem by using a capital charge based on economic return, obtained as the product of a market value and a market rate. The resultant economic RI enjoys additivity. The economic RI is naturally associated to the average Return on Investment (ratio of total income to total invested capital). Subtracting the respective cost of capital (ratio of total economic return to total invested capital) the marginal economic efficiency of the capital is correctly captured. Economic RI guarantees consistency among the various sets of incomes, book values, economic values, accounting rates, and costs of capital, under an investment perspective as well as a financing one, both at a period level and at an aggregate level, either assuming time-invariant or time-varying costs of capital. Therefore, the economic RI offers a coherent tool for the assessment of a project's or firm's economic efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Randomized controlled trials to improve care for complex, high-need, high-cost patients have not consistently demonstrated a relative decrease in acute care utilization or cost savings. However, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has been able to glean lessons from these trials and generate realistic expectations for success. Lessons include the following: (1) combining population management tools (e.g., risk scores) and clinician judgment is more effective than either alone to identify the patients best suited for intensive management; (2) treatment adherence and engagement may contribute more to preventable emergency department visits and hospitalizations than care coordination; and (3) efforts should focus on assessing for and treating those risk factors that are most amenable to intervention. Because it is unlikely that cost savings can fund add-on intensive management programs, the VHA Office of Primary Care plans to incorporate those intensive management practices that are feasible into existing patient-centered medical homes as a high reliability organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between household consumption and financial literacy. The economic framework is a simple life-cycle model of consumption in which financial literacy affects the rate of return on assets. The theoretical predictions are that, for plausible values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, financial literacy is positively related to both the level of consumption and consumption growth. We empirically test these theoretical predictions with Dutch data from the LISS household panel. Our results provide evidence in favour of a positive association between non-durable consumption, and in particular food consumption, and financial literacy. No evidence is, however, found in favour of an association between consumption growth and financial literacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many jurisdictions, the determination of the acceptable rate of return for the assets of a regulated utility is based partially on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to determine risk premia. However, the traditional estimation of CAPM can be criticized for not including considerations of reference-day risk as well as the higher moments of the rates of return. In this paper, we attempt to account for both the potential variation induced by the definition of specific reference days and the higher moments of rates of return in the estimates of Beta. This paper provides a new methodology to account for reference-day variation. We construct a set of pseudo-monthly rates of return to identify the influence of reference-day choice. These pseudo-monthly asset returns are used to estimate measures of asset systematic risk for an international panel of regulated firms. To evaluate the influence of return rate volatility we examine the errors from the estimation of the CAPM with least squares, least absolute deviation and a partially adaptive maximum likelihood specification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we examine the potential determinants of technical efficiency for the Tunisian commercial banking sector over the period of 1995–2017. First, we estimate banking technical efficiency with a radial and non-radial bootstrap data envelopment analysis. For the radial technique, we use an input-oriented approach and for non-radial we use the Range Adjusted Measure (RAM). Second, we use a double bootstrapping regression technique to estimate the influence of a set of eventual determinants on technical efficiency. Finally, based on all possible regressions, we gauge the overall effect of each determinant. Our results reveal that the input-oriented and RAM approach gave somewhat similar results. We found that the return on equity, the expense to income ratio, the loan to deposit ratio, and the growth rate are insignificant to Tunisian banking technical efficiency. In particular, banking technical efficiency increases with capitalization and inflation, whereas, it decreases with size, number of bank branches, management to staff ratio, and loan to asset ratio. In addition, we identified evidence supporting the moderate success of the last decade of reforms and a noticeable one for the post-revolution reforms in helping improve banking technical efficiency. The post-revolution reforms, largely revolving around reinforcing the rules of good governance and banking supervision, coupled with the restructuring of public banks, were found to be insufficient to raise overall banking technical efficiency despite improvement in the technical efficiency of private banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we seek to examine the effect of the presence of stylized facts on forecasting volatility and we model the dependence between exchange rate returns using a flexible approach that allows us to investigate whether the co-movement of the different stylized facts on portfolio optimization. First,we focus on the dependence structure using copulas. The empirical results show that the co-jumps, long memory, leverage effects affect the dependence structure. Second, we analyze the impact of the presence of stylized facts with the dependence structure using Gumbel copula on the optimal portfolio. We propose a new approach to forecasting volatility portfolio with dynamic factor models including stylized facts and assuming that the dependence structure is modeled by the copula parameter. The empirical results show that our approach outperforms the basic models without stylized facts and where the dependence structure is represented by the linear correlation coefficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synthetic natural gas (SNG) from coal gasification technology has become an alternative method to alleviate China's natural gas shortage. However, the Chinese SNG industry still faces a series of problems, such as low profits, high carbon emissions, and water shortages, and Chinese SNG policy is cautious and unstable. Considering economic, energy security, and environmental constraints, this study analyses the future of SNG in China by using a system dynamics model. The results are as follows. In under various circumstances, SNG production is projected to reach 20.8–44.2 bcm by 2030. SNG production could reduce the dependence on gas imports to 23–40% in 2030, which may help to reduce the risk of natural gas imports. The energy production efficiency index, EROI (Energy Return on Investment), of SNG is only approximately 1.5, and thus, economic profitability will remain very low for a long time; in general, price subsidies will be conducive to increasing SNG production. Based on these results, the study provides some suggestions for policy-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Big data technologies and analytics enable new digital services and are often associated with superior performance. However, firms investing in big data often fail to attain those advantages. To answer the questions of how and when big data pay off, marketing scholars need new theoretical approaches and empirical tools that account for the digitized world. Building on affordance theory, the authors develop a novel, conceptually rigorous, and practice-oriented framework of the impact of big data investments on service innovation and performance. Affordances represent action possibilities, namely what individuals or organizations with certain goals and capabilities can do with a technology. The authors conceptualize and operationalize three important big data marketing affordances: customer behavior pattern spotting, real-time market responsiveness, and data-driven market ambidexterity. The empirical analysis establishes construct validity and offers a preliminary nomological test of direct, indirect, and conditional effects of big data marketing affordances on perceived big data performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study discusses the trading behavior of foreign investors with respect to economic uncertainty in the South Korean stock market from a time-varying perspective. We employ a news-based measure of economic uncertainty along with the model of time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility. The empirical analysis reveals several new findings about foreign investors' trading behaviors. First, we find evidence that positive feedback trading often appears during periods of high economic uncertainty, whereas negative feedback trading is exclusively observable during periods of low economic uncertainty. Second, the foreign investors' feedback trading appears mostly to be well-timed and often leads the time-varying economic uncertainty except in periods of global crises. Third, lagged negative (positive) response of net flows to economic uncertainty is found to be coupled with lagged positive (negative) feedback trading. Fourth, the study documents an asymmetric response of foreign investors with regard to negative and positive shocks of economic uncertainty. Specifically, we find that they instantly turn to positive feedback trading after a negative contemporaneous response of net flows to shocks of economic uncertainty. In contrast, they move slowly toward negative feedback trading after a positive response of net flows to uncertainty shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short selling strategy leads to a portfolio with significantly better risk-return structure compared to the standard approach. Moreover, investors can use risk-neutral interest rate to increase the return of the portfolio. In this paper, we study the cardinality-constrained mean–variance portfolio optimization model with and without short selling and risk-neutral interest rate. First, to avoid negative investment in stocks with no short selling position, the non-negativeness of the product of each stock's return to the proportion of investment on it is added to the model as a constraint. Then, we further present an improved model, where instead of determining the term of the short rebate according to the proportion of the total funds invested, it is determined according to the return. Finally, all models are compared using the data set of the S&P 500 index, Communication Service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategic ejaculate adjustments occur when males modify their investment in sperm and nonsperm components of the ejaculate according to the context. This strategy is expected to evolve when ejaculate production is costly, the returns of the investment in the ejaculate depend on the environment and environmental conditions are variable. While adjustments of sperm numbers have been widely documented, only recently we have begun to investigate how males modify ejaculate quality, despite the recognized importance of this factor for sperm competition. Here I discuss and synthetize existing literature on strategic adjustments of ejaculate quality. I describe which ejaculate quality traits are most typically plastic and which environmental factors elicit such responses, focusing especially on the socio-sexual environment. I summarize information on the timeframe within which adjustments can occur and on the proximate mechanisms responsible for plasticity. I show that this phenomenon is widespread across taxa; it involves responses to several environmental factors and modifications of many ejaculate traits, with seminal fluid composition playing a central role, as a trait per se and as proximate mechanism for sperm performance adjustments. I point out the circumstances favoring the evolution of ejaculate quality plasticity, and evaluate the fitness consequences of these responses, highlighting the complexity of patterns of covariation with other traits. Finally, I consider implications for male and female behavior. I highlight two areas of research on ejaculate plasticity that may be particularly worth exploring further: 1) the proximate mechanisms responsible for plasticity; 2) the adaptive value of strategic ejaculate adjustments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Educators and researchers are increasingly interested in evaluating and promoting socio-emotional learning (SEL) beginning in early childhood (Newman & Dusunbury in 2015; Zigler & Trickett in American Psychologist 33(9):789–798 https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.33.9.789, 1978). Decades of research have linked participation in high-quality early childhood education (ECE) programs (e.g., public prekindergarten, Head Start) to multidimensional wellbeing. ECE programs also have demonstrated potential to be implemented at large scales with strong financial returns on investment. However, relatively few studies have investigated the effects of ECE programs on SEL, particularly compared to smaller-scale, skills-based SEL interventions. Furthermore, among studies that have examined SEL, there is a general lack of consensus about how to define and measure SEL in applied settings. The present paper begins to address these gaps in several ways. First, it discusses conceptual and methodological issues related to developmentally and culturally sensitive assessment of young children's socio-emotional functioning. Second, it reviews the empirical research literature on the impacts of three types of early childhood programs (general prekindergarten programs; multi-component prekindergarten programs; and universal skills-based interventions) on SEL. Finally, it highlights future directions for research and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting and adequately measuring equity returns volatility is crucial for portfolio selection and trading strategies. Implied volatility is often considered to be informationally superior to the realized volatility. When available, implied volatility is largely used by practitioners and investors to forecast future volatility. To this extent we want to identify the best approach to track equity returns implied volatility using parametric and ANN approaches. Using daily equity prices and stock market indices traded on major international Exchanges we estimate time varying volatility using the E-GARCH approach, the Heston model and a novel ANN framework to replicate the corresponding implied volatility. Overall the ANN approach results the most accurate to track the equity returns implied volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays financial products are extremely complex and the decision to choose among them could represent a stressful event for individuals. Information related to the risk/return profile of an investment instrument and the way it is represented (framing effect) are crucial in determining the outcome of individuals' decisions. In this paper we consider two schemes that can be employed to represent the random performances of risky financial products, namely the what if and probabilistic scenarios frames. This paper aims at measuring the impact of the two above mentioned schemes on investors' decision accuracy and peripheral nervous system activity. In particular, the goal is twofold: (1) to investigate the behavioural and physiological indexes elicited in the decision-making process of investors who have to choose on the basis of the two different schemes; (2) to investigate on the effect of time pressure when probabilistic scenarios or what if frames are used. The first point is investigated by means of a decision making task, while the second one by means of a perceptual one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the entire globe gets engaged in importing and exporting the products for promoting their business in which supply chain management is playing a vital role. The main aspect of any effective supply chain management is the transportation of cargoes. To avoid the damages of cargoes during transportation and for minimizing the cost, the returnable containers are used. The present research deals with an inventory model of Non-Vessel Operating Common Carrier (NVOCC) for returnable containers with price dependent demand under fuzzy environment. In this study, it is presumed that the import of cargoes is less than the export. The Empty Container Repositioning (ECR) and the leasing options are utilized to replace the deficit containers which prevent shortages. The proportion of the used containers returned, the proportion of the repositioned containers and the fraction of repairable from the returned containers are considered as Triangular Fuzzy Numbers [TFNs]. Fuzzy inventory model is framed for the purpose of attaining optimal length of the screening, the repositioning cycle and the leasing cycle which are used to minimize the expected total cost and the proposed model is illustrated with the numerical example. The sensitivity analysis is performed to show the effect of fuzziness of return rate, repositioning rate and repairable percentage along with the changes in parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the conduct of fiscal policy in a financially integrated union in the presence of financial frictions. Frictions create a wedge between the return to investment and the union interest rate. This leads to an over-spending externality. While the social cost of spending is the return to investment, governments care mostly about the (depressed) interest rate they face. In other words, the crowding-out effects of public spending are partly "exported" to the rest of the union. We argue that it may be hard for the union to deal with this externality through the design of fiscal rules, which are bound to be shaped by the preferences of the median country and not by efficiency considerations. We also analyze how this overspending externality—and the union's ability to deal with it effectively—changes when the union is financially integrated with the rest of the world. Finally, we extend our model by introducing a zero lower bound on interest rates and show that, if financial frictions are severe enough, the union is pushed into a liquidity trap and the direction of the spending externality is reversed. At such times, fiscal rules that are appropriate during normal times might backfire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relevance of tax progressivity measures to policymaking depends on whether they help assess the extent to which taxation leads to social welfare gains or losses. The social welfare implications of progressivity measures have yet to be explored adequately in the literature. This paper helps to fill this gap by proposing a social welfare function framework to derive measures of tax progressivity and explore their normative properties. Using the social welfare framework, the paper derives the Kakwani index from Sen's social welfare function as well as a new class of progressivity measures that incorporate a distributional judgment parameter capturing inequality aversion. The paper also discusses the social welfare implications of the Suits measure of tax progressivity and develops a new measure of tax progressivity derived from the Bonferroni social welfare function. The paper derives both relative and absolute measures of tax progressivity from the social welfare function framework. The methodology developed in the paper is applied to make international comparisons of tax progressivity in 32 developed countries. The paper calculates the magnitude of welfare gains and losses due to taxation and the required social rates of return of public investments for governments to break even. This paper finds that the governments in some countries have to generate high social rates of return from their public investments to compensate for losses of social welfare from taxation. It concludes that optimizing social welfare requires designing a progressive tax system, minimizing the administrative costs of collecting taxes, and maximizing the social rates of return by efficiently investing tax revenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this globalized scenario, the overall performance of the manufacturing industries is the backbone of the development of the countries' economies. In this research, the authors' main objective of the study is to segment the manufacturing industries by using the triangular interval-valued fuzzy TOPSIS Method and find out the factors determining its performance. The researchers have collected the data from 350 manufacturing industries located in Puducherry, India. They applied a Simple Random sampling method by using a structured questionnaire from manufacturing industries. To analyze the data, the researchers used software packages like Excel, SPSS and LISREL 8.72. The researchers applied Confirmatory Factor Analysis, Triangular Interval-Valued Fuzzy TOPSIS Method, Chi square and Correspondent Analysis to conclude the result. Based on the factors loadings of the items, the contribution made by the items in respect of Performance may be ranked as Sales growth, Market share, Profit margin and Return on investment. With the help of Triangular Interval-Valued Fuzzy TOPSIS Method researchers segmented the manufacturing industries into three groups and by using the Chi square analysis the researchers found that the five demographics characteristics like Number of years in Business (Company), Scale of industry, Kind of manufacturing, Number of employees and location of the production plant of the respondents and these are significantly associated with segmenting the manufacturing industries and determine the performance of manufacturing industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The risk parity solution to the asset allocation problem yields portfolios where the risk contribution from each asset is made equal. We consider a generalized approach to this problem. First, we set an objective that seeks to maximize the portfolio expected return while minimizing portfolio risk. Second, we relax the risk parity condition and instead bound the risk dispersion of the constituents within a predefined limit. This allows an investor to prescribe a desired risk dispersion range, yielding a portfolio with an optimal risk–return profile that is still well-diversified from a risk-based standpoint. We add robustness to our framework by introducing an ellipsoidal uncertainty structure around our estimated asset expected returns to mitigate estimation error. Our proposed framework does not impose any restrictions on short selling. A limitation of risk parity is that allowing of short sales leads to a non-convex problem. However, we propose an approach that relaxes our generalized risk parity model into a convex semidefinite program. We proceed to tighten this relaxation sequentially through the alternating direction method of multipliers. This procedure iterates between the convex optimization problem and the non-convex problem with a rank constraint. In addition, we can exploit this structure to solve the non-convex problem analytically and efficiently during every iteration. Numerical results suggest that this algorithm converges to a higher quality optimal solution when compared to the competing non-convex problem, and can also yield a higher ex post risk-adjusted rate of return. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cooperative (co-op) advertising is an arrangement between manufacturer and retailer, where two members initiate their respective advertising to help develop brand, motivate sales, and other purposes. This paper focuses on cooperative advertising in a supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer. As two basic elements of a supply chain, the channel power structure and information structure affect the firm's pricing and advertising decisions. We attempt to investigate how they optimally decide their marginal returns and advertising investments. Utilizing the Stackelberg game theory, we derive the equilibrium of five scenarios in two different cases, i.e., (1) either the manufacturer or the retailer is acting as the Stackelberg leader and (2) whether the Stackelberg leader knows the advertising investment of his follower. Then we make a comparison and obtain some managerial implications as follows: (1) the supply chain power structure and the relative advertising effectiveness coefficient exert great influence on the optimal supply chain decisions, (2) the supply chain members' profit is not parallel to their corresponding power structure, if the retailer's advertising effectiveness is greater than the manufacturer's, the Manufacturer-dominated Stackelberg game is a win–win strategy, and vice versa, (3) the dominant member can improve his and the overall performance of the supply chain by having the advertising information of the other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current paper aims to design a closed-loop supply chain network which maximizes the productivity and the asset recovery by focusing on the location-routing decisions. A practical network is presented using quality-based routing and segmentation policies. Moreover, a novel social index is provided based on the sustainability reporting guidelines. The forward chain includes the manufacturers, the depots, the distributors and the customers. In the backward chain, the distributers collect and sort the returns into three groups to be sent out either to the emerging markets, the decomposition centre or the secondary chain facility. The resultant model is then validated and tested via a numerical example under the different scenarios from single-objective and multiple-objective approaches. A comprehensive analysis is presented to test the impacts of the return rates, the location of the receiver facility, and the transport fleet. The results show the effectiveness of the model under different scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a semi-Markov process based approach to optimally select a portfolio consisting of credit risky bonds. The criteria to optimize the credit portfolio is based on l∞-norm risk measure and the proposed optimization model is formulated as a linear programming problem. The input parameters to the optimization model are rate of returns of bonds which are obtained using credit ratings assuming that credit ratings of bonds follow a semi-Markov process. Modeling credit ratings by semi-Markov processes has several advantages over Markov chain models, i.e., it addresses the ageing effect present in the credit rating dynamics. The transition probability matrices generated by semi-Markov process and initial credit ratings are used to generate rate of returns of bonds. The empirical performance of the proposed model is analyzed using the real data. Further, comparison of the proposed approach with the Markov chain approach is performed by obtaining the efficient frontiers for the two models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Uganda's development aspiration "VISION 2040", Uganda aspires to transform its society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous middle-income country by 2040, with per capita income of USD 9, 567. To attain the vision, savings as a percentage of GDP should be over 35%. Notwithstanding such a high commitment, GDS as a percentage of GDP has remained below the desired target, standing at 16.5% in 2017. This paper investigated the determinants of Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) in Uganda for the period 1980–2017. The theoretical framework is based on the life-cycle/permanent-income hypothesis. Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests were utilized to test for the stationarity of the time series variables in the model. To test for both the short-run and long-run relationships among GDS and the independent variables, the ARDL bounds testing approach was adopted. The observational results indicate that in the long run, Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDPg), Foreign Domestic Investments (FDI) and Broad money (M2) have positive and statistically significant effects on GDS, while Current Account Balance (CAB) and Gross National Expenditure (GNE) have negative impacts on savings. Deposit Interest Rate (DIR) was observed to be a statistically unimportant determinant of GDS in Uganda. In the short run, CAB has a positive and statistically significant impact on GDS while GDPg and DIR have a negative and statistically significant impact on GDS. The paper recommends increasing net exports through implementation of the industrial and export strategy espoused in the national development plan 2. In addition, the government should ensure a predictable economic environment to act as an assurance to the foreign investors that their investments will yield profits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the interplay of transmission and storage investments in a multistage game that we translate into a bilevel market model. In particular, on the first level we assume that a transmission system operator chooses optimal line investments and a corresponding optimal network fee. On the second level we model competitive firms that trade energy on a zonal market with limited transmission capacities and decide on their optimal storage facility investments. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to analyze interdependent transmission and storage facility investments in a zonal market environment that accounts for the described hierarchical decision structure. As a first best benchmark, we also present an integrated, single-level problem that may be interpreted as a long-run nodal pricing model. Our numerical results show that adequate storage facility investments of firms may in general have the potential to reduce the amount of line investments of the transmission system operator. However, our bilevel zonal pricing model may yield inefficient investments in storages, which may be accompanied by suboptimal network facility extensions as compared to the nodal pricing benchmark. In this context, the chosen zonal configuration of the network will highly influence the equilibrium investment outcomes including the size and location of the newly invested facilities. As zonal pricing is used for instance in Australia or Europe, our models may be seen as valuable tools for evaluating different regulatory policy options in the context of long-run investments in storage and network facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly 40 years ago Congress laid the foundation for federal agencies to engage in technology transfer activities with a primary goal to make federal laboratory research outcomes widely available. Since then, agencies generally rely on universal metrics such as licensing income and number of patents to measure the benefit of their technology transfer program. However, such metrics do not address the requirements set by the current and previous administrations, which require agencies to better gauge the effectiveness and return on investment of their technology programs. Here we evaluate two metrics, filing ratio and transfer rate, and empirically evaluate these metrics using data from Department of the Navy's most transactionally active laboratory, as well as recently released agency-reported data available from the FY 2015 annual technology transfer report (15 U.S.C. Section 3710). We additionally propose other federally-relevant metrics for which agency data are not currently available. Results presented here indicate that these modernized metrics may potentially fulfill the requirements set by executive guidance. The study findings also point out to other metrics that are relevant to practitioners, program managers, and policymakers in the evaluation of technology transfer programs for better measurement of effectiveness, efficiency, and return on investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gold, used for jewelry and ornaments at times, is now considered a safe metal for investment. In addition to buying and selling gold physically, some markets offer electronic trade in gold. Trade volume is on surge in these bullion markets with each passing day. Daily opening and closing gold prices are used for analysis for 7740 days. Data series of daily return on investment in gold is split into two data series; first when the price goes up and second when the price goes down, at the day's end. Statistical properties of three data series are analyzed and probabilities to earn profits are calculated during any day regardless of what types of decisions are going to be made that day. Probabilities of daily return, for both long and short positions, are presented in the form of tables. The expected daily profit of a trader with associated probability is explained in an illustrative example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents detailed life cycle assessment (LCA) of a novel process to produce ethanol from rice straw in India. The process has been successfully demonstrated and proposed to be scaled-up, and detailed LCA of that process is the key novel contribution of this work. Cradle-to-gate system boundary is considered, which includes rice farming, transportation, and processing at the biorefinery. 1 l of ethanol is used as the functional unit. The process data are based on the demonstration-scale plant as well as the scale-up plant of 100 kilo litres per day being designed based on the same process. The life cycle inventory data are taken from the Ecoinvent® database. OpenLCA 1.6 is used to develop the LCA model, and impact assessment is performed using ILCD 2011 midpoint indicators. The GWP was 2.82 kg of CO2 eq. per liter of ethanol using economic impact allocation. Electricity contributed 86% of the total impact, and use of hydroelectricity reduced the impact to 0.07 kg of CO2 eq. per liter of ethanol. If additional benefits due to this process are considered, the impact reduced to − 0.392 kg of CO2 eq. per liter of ethanol indicating considerable relative reduction in the GWP. Without allocation and implementing system expansion, the impact was 3.35 kg of CO2 eq. per liter of ethanol. The energy return on investment was 1.59, indicating that the process was net energy positive. The lower bound on the life cycle water use was 507.4 l per liter of ethanol. The integrated nature of the process producing various value-added chemicals provided significant benefits from the perspective of environmental impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper first constructs investor sentiment indices for the P2P lending market. Furthermore, the platform is divided based on five categories according to the P2P lending platform characteristics, such as the background of the platform and different transparency. We adopt a vector autoregressive to study the influence of investor sentiment on the return rate of different type of P2P platforms. The result shows that the platforms with lower transparency, higher return and the background of private are changed in the same direction with the sentiment. Therefore, as an external variable, investor sentiment can predict the stability of P2P lending platforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]