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Continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP), crucial for the resilience of transportation infrastructure owing to its continuous steel reinforcement, confronts a critical challenge in the form of spalling—a distress phenomenon posing a threat to pavement durability and overall structural integrity. The detachment or breakage of concrete from the surface compromises CRCP's functionality and raises safety concerns and escalating maintenance costs. To address this pressing issue, our study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing spalling, employing a comprehensive approach that integrates statistical and machine learning techniques for predictive modeling. Descriptive statistics meticulously profile the dataset, emphasizing age, thickness, precipitation, temperature, and traffic parameters. Regression analysis unveils key relationships, emphasizing the significance of age, annual temperature, annual precipitation, maximum humidity, and the initial International Roughness Index (IRI) as influential factors. The correlation matrix heatmap guides feature selection, elucidating intricate interdependencies. Simultaneously, feature importance analysis identifies age, Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT), and total pavement thickness as crucial contributors to spalling. In machine learning, adopting models, including Gaussian Process Regression and ensemble tree models, is grounded in their diverse capabilities and suitability for the complex task at hand. Their varying predictive accuracies underscore the importance of judicious model selection. This research advances pavement engineering practices by offering nuanced insights into factors influencing spalling in CRCP, refining our understanding of spalling influences. Consequently, the study not only opens avenues for developing improved predictive methodologies but also enhances the durability of CRCP infrastructure, addressing broader implications for informed decision-making in transportation infrastructure management. The selection of Gaussian Process Regression and ensemble tree models stems from their adaptability to capture intricate relationships within the dataset, and their comparative performance provides valuable insights into the diverse predictive capabilities of these models in the context of CRCP spalling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Box office prediction is of great significance for understanding investment risks, class construction, promotion and distribution, and theater scheduling. However, due to the insufficient selection of influencing factors of movie box office, the currently existing prediction model restricts the prediction accuracy. A total of 34 influencing factors in 11 categories, such as heat index, movie types, release date, creators, first-day box office, were selected to study the prediction technology of movie box office. The Word2vec algorithm is used to construct a feature thesaurus for nouns in movie domain; adjectives and verbs with emotional coloring are used to construct an emotional dictionary based on the movie domain; and the TF-IDF algorithm is integrated to calculate the emotional scores of movie comments. A prediction method based on comments and Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) is designed to analyze the relationship between the influencing factors and the movie box office, which provides an important basis for the prediction of the total box office, and also provides a decision-making reference for the movie industry and the related management departments. Incorporating comments as feature values to improve the accuracy, a prediction model based on comments and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is constructed. The results show that the average prediction accuracy of the MLR without comments, Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), and CNN is 63.4%, 68.3%, and 71.9%, respectively, and after integrating the comments, the average prediction accuracy of the MLR and CNN is improved by 16.1% and 11.8%, respectively, and the prediction accuracy is significantly improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated whether machine learning (ML) has better predictive accuracy than logistic regression analysis (LR) for gait independence at discharge in subacute stroke patients (n = 843) who could not walk independently at admission. We developed prediction models using LR and five ML algorithms—specifically, the decision tree (DT), support vector machine, artificial neural network, ensemble learning, and k-nearest neighbor methods. Functional Independence Measure sub-items were used to evaluate the ability to walk independently. Model predictive accuracies were evaluated using areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) as well as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and specificity. The AUC for DT (0.812) was significantly lower than those for the other algorithms (p < 0.01); however, the AUC for LR (0.895) did not differ significantly from those for the other models (0.893–0.903). Other performance metrics showed no substantial differences between LR and ML algorithms. In conclusion, the DT algorithm had significantly low predictive accuracy, and LR showed no significant difference in predictive accuracy compared with the other ML algorithms. As its predictive accuracy is similar to that of ML, LR can continue to be used for predicting the prognosis of gait independence, with additional advantages of being easily understandable and manually computable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing concrete creep coefficient prediction models have the limitation of not considering the structural characteristics of CFT. For this reason, these models tend to overestimate the creep deformation of CFT. Therefore, in order to overcome the limitations of existing CFT creep experiments, this study proposes a creep-experiment method involving the use of CFT that passively changes the load applied to a single concrete specimen by calculating the stress redistribution between the concrete and a steel tube in CFT based on a step-by-step method. Furthermore, by actually applying the proposed experimental method, a creep experiment of CFT lasting for approximately 163 days was performed and a superficial creep coefficient model of CFT was proposed based on long-term strain data from the experiment. In order to verify the proposed superficial creep coefficient model, it was compared with two design criteria (CEB-FIP and ACI) based on the experimental results of this study and references. As a result, compared to the existing design criteria, the value predicted by the proposed superficial creep coefficient model showed good agreement with the experimental results of this study and the references, proving that the proposed creep-experiment method of CFT and superficial creep coefficient model are reasonable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of water-conducting fractured zone (WCFZ) of mine overburden is the premise for reducing or eliminating water inrush hazards in undersea mining. To obtain a more robust and precise prediction of WCFZ in undersea mining, a WCFZ prediction dataset with 122 cases of fractured zones was constructed. Five machine learning algorithms (linear regression, XGBRegressor, RandomForestRegressor, LineareSVR, and KNeighborsRegressor) were employed to develop five corresponding predictive models, taking multiple factors into account.The optimal parameters for each model are obtained through ten-fold cross-validation (10CV). The model's predictive performance was validated and assessed using two metrics, namely the coefficient of determination (R2) and mean squared error (MSE). A comparison was made with the regression performance of commonly used empirical formulas. The results indicate that the constructed model outperforms reliance solely on theoretical criteria, showing a high R2 value of up to 0.925 and a low MSE value of 3.61. The proposed model was validated in a recently established mining area on Sanshan Island, China. It shows low absolute and relative errors of 0.71 m and 2.01%, respectively, between the predicted value from the model and observation result from the field, demonstrating a high level of consistency with on-site conditions. This paves a path to leveraging machine learning algorithms for predicting the height of WCFZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity (DCP) and nonlinear finite element (FE) analysis were used to predict, and fundamentally understand how and why fracture nucleation and propagation are related to the interrelated microstructural mechanisms of dislocation-density pileups, GB structure, orientation, and total and partial dislocation density interactions within and adjacent for a random low angle grain boundary (LAGB) and a random high angle GB (HAGB). The GB orientations and structures were obtained from micropillar experiments, such that LAGBs and the HAGBs can be accurately represented and used for the modeling predictions. The normal stress, density of pileups, and dislocation-density accumulation along and within the GB were higher for the low angle GB bicrystal. These interrelated phenomena delineate how fracture for high angle GBs nucleate and propagate at lower nominal strains than the lower angle GB bicrystal case. These predictions underscore how fundamental mechanisms can be identified and used to understand how failure nucleates and propagates for different GB structures and orientations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbes have been demonstrated to be closely linked to diseases that pose a major threat to human health. Computing technologies can help researchers find potential microbe-drug associations more quickly and precisely. In this study, we introduced a novel computational prediction model called GLNNMDA based on global and local features of microbes and drugs to infer possible microbe-drug correlations. In GLNNMDA, we first constructed a heterogeneous network based on known microbe-drug relationships by integrating multiple similarity metrics of drugs and microbes. Subsequently, low-dimensional features will be extracted for nodes in the heterogeneous network by adopting the graph attention encoder. Next, based on combining these low-dimensional features with multiple properties of microbes and drugs to form a new comprehensive feature matrix, we would utilize the GLF module to extract the global and local features for microbes and drugs respectively, and then, we would further fuse these global and local features to come up with predictions of possible microbe-drug associations. Moreover, in order to evaluate the prediction performance of GLNNMDA, under the framework of fivefold cross-validation, intensive comparative experiments and case studies were done on different well-known public databases. The results showed that GLNNMDA obtained the highest AUC values as well as AUPR values of 0.9802 ± 0.0011, 0.9773 ± 0.0021 and 0.8586 ± 0.0004, 0.8008 ± 0.0031 in the two databases, MDAD and aBiofilm, respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art competing prediction methods. In addition, case studies of well-known microorganisms and drugs have demonstrated the effectiveness of GLNNMDA in inferring potential microbial drug associations, which implies that GLNNMDA may be a useful tool for microbe-drug association prediction in the future. The source code is available at: "https://github.com/KuangHaiYue/GLNNMDA.git". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In intensive care unit (ICU) patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV), the occurrence of difficult weaning contributes to increased ventilator-related complications, prolonged hospitalization duration, and a significant rise in healthcare costs. Therefore, early identification of influencing factors and prediction of patients at risk of difficult weaning can facilitate early intervention and preventive measures. This study aimed to strengthen airway management for ICU patients by constructing a risk prediction model with comprehensive and individualized offline programs based on machine learning techniques. This study involved the collection of data from 487 patients undergoing MV in the ICU, with a total of 36 variables recorded. The dataset was divided into a training set (70% of the data) and a test set (30% of the data). Five machine learning models, namely logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, light gradient boosting machine, and extreme gradient boosting, were compared to predict the risk of difficult weaning in ICU patients with MV. Significant influencing factors were identified based on the results of these models, and a risk prediction model for ICU patients with MV was established. When evaluating the models using AUC (Area under the Curve of ROC) and Accuracy as performance metrics, the Random Forest algorithm exhibited the best performance among the five machine learning algorithms. The area under the operating characteristic curve for the subjects was 0.805, with an accuracy of 0.748, recall (0.888), specificity (0.767) and F1 score (0.825). This study successfully developed a risk prediction model for ICU patients with MV using a machine learning algorithm. The Random Forest algorithm demonstrated the highest prediction performance. These findings can assist clinicians in accurately assessing the risk of difficult weaning in patients and formulating effective individualized treatment plans. Ultimately, this can help reduce the risk of difficult weaning and improve the quality of life for patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Haemoglobin variation (ΔHb) induced by fluid transfer through the intestitium has been proposed as a useful tool for detecting hydrostatic pulmonary oedema (HPO). However, its use in the emergency department (ED) setting still needs to be determined. Methods: In this observational retrospective monocentric study, ED patients admitted for acute dyspnoea were enrolled. Hb values were recorded both at ED presentation (T0) and after 4 to 8 h (T1). ΔHb between T1 and T0 (ΔHbT1-T0) was calculated as absolute and relative value. Two investigators, unaware of Hb values, defined the cause of dyspnoea as HPO and non-HPO. ΔHbT1-T0 ability to detect HPO was evaluated. A machine learning approach was used to develop a predictive tool for HPO, by considering the ability of ΔHb as covariate, together with baseline patient characteristics. Results: Seven-hundred-and-six dyspnoeic patients (203 HPO and 503 non-HPO) were enrolled over 19 months. Hb levels were significantly different between HPO and non-HPO patients both at T0 and T1 (p < 0.001). ΔHbT1-T0 were more pronounced in HPO than non-HPO patients, both as relative (-8.2 [-11.2 to -5.6] vs. 0.6 [-2.1 to 3.3] %) and absolute (-1.0 [-1.4 to -0.8] vs. 0.1 [-0.3 to 0.4] g/dL) values (p < 0.001). A relative ΔHbT1-T0 of -5% detected HPO with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.901 [0.896–0.906]. Among the considered models, Gradient Boosting Machine showed excellent predictive ability in identifying HPO patients and was used to create a web-based application. ΔHbT1-T0 was confirmed as the most important covariate for HPO prediction. Conclusions: ΔHbT1-T0 in patients admitted for acute dyspnoea reliably identifies HPO in the ED setting. The machine learning predictive tool may represent a performing and clinically handy tool for confirming HPO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prostate cancer is well known as the commonest cancer in men and the second leading cause of cancer-related death. CT, MRI and bone scintigraphy are considered the commonly widely used imaging diagnostic tools for detection, staging and follow-up of prostate cancer. Prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is a membrane glycoprotein, that can be concentrated in prostate cancer cells up to 100 times higher than in normal cells. PSMA-targeted imaging modalities have now proven their efficacy in diagnosis, staging and follow-up of prostate cancer. The use of 68Ga PSMA PET-CT has efficiently improved the detection of loco-regional and metastatic disease. 68Ga PSMA PET-CT also has an effective role in the primary diagnosis, staging, and detecting biochemical recurrence after curative treatment and in metastasis-targeted therapy. This work aims to review the role of 68Ga PSMA PET-CT in anatomical staging of prostate cancer in correlation with histopathological staging. Results: Zonal correlation between 68Ga PSMA findings and biopsy results showed sensitivity ranging between 76.9 and 90.6% and specificity ranging from 85.7 to 100%. There was high significant correlation between the SUVmax uptake and the biopsy results, between the SUVmax uptake and the local staging as well as between the Gleason score and 68Ga PSMA PET/CT findings. Conclusions: 68Ga PSMA PET/CT is a highly promising imaging modality with an effective role in detection of prostate cancer showing high sensitivity and specificity in prediction of zonal histopathological results and loco-regional Gleason score staging with significant positive correlation between the SUV uptake results, Gleason score and the PSA levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transferring and replicating predictive algorithms across healthcare systems constitutes a unique yet crucial challenge that needs to be addressed to enable the widespread adoption of machine learning in healthcare. In this study, we explored the impact of important differences across healthcare systems and the associated Electronic Health Records (EHRs) on machine-learning algorithms to predict mental health crises, up to 28 days in advance. We evaluated both the transferability and replicability of such machine learning models, and for this purpose, we trained six models using features and methods developed on EHR data from the Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust in the UK. These machine learning models were then used to predict the mental health crises of 2907 patients seen at the Rush University System for Health in the US between 2018 and 2020. The best one was trained on a combination of US-specific structured features and frequency features from anonymized patient notes and achieved an AUROC of 0.837. A model with comparable performance, originally trained using UK structured data, was transferred and then tuned using US data, achieving an AUROC of 0.826. Our findings establish the feasibility of transferring and replicating machine learning models to predict mental health crises across diverse hospital systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While genome-wide association studies are valuable in identifying CRC survival predictors, the benefit of adding blood DNA methylation (blood-DNAm) to clinical features, including the TNM system, remains unclear. In a multi-site population-based patient cohort study of 2116 CRC patients with baseline blood-DNAm, we analyzed survival predictions using eXtreme Gradient Boosting with a 5-fold nested leave-sites-out cross-validation across four groups: traditional and comprehensive clinical features, blood-DNAm, and their combination. Model performance was assessed using time-dependent ROC curves and calibrations. During a median follow-up of 10.3 years, 1166 patients died. Although blood-DNAm-based predictive signatures achieved moderate performances, predictive signatures based on clinical features outperformed blood-DNAm signatures. The inclusion of blood-DNAm did not improve survival prediction over clinical features. M1 stage, age at blood collection, and N2 stage were the top contributors. Despite some prognostic value, incorporating blood DNA methylation did not enhance survival prediction of CRC patients beyond clinical features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parkinson's disease (PD) presents diverse symptoms and comorbidities, complicating its diagnosis and management. The primary objective of this cross-sectional, monocentric study was to assess digital gait sensor data's utility for monitoring and diagnosis of motor and gait impairment in PD. As a secondary objective, for the more challenging tasks of detecting comorbidities, non-motor outcomes, and disease progression subgroups, we evaluated for the first time the integration of digital markers with metabolomics and clinical data. Using shoe-attached digital sensors, we collected gait measurements from 162 patients and 129 controls in a single visit. Machine learning models showed significant diagnostic power, with AUC scores of 83–92% for PD vs. control and up to 75% for motor severity classification. Integrating gait data with metabolomics and clinical data improved predictions for challenging-to-detect comorbidities such as hallucinations. Overall, this approach using digital biomarkers and multimodal data integration can assist in objective disease monitoring, diagnosis, and comorbidity detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CRISPR is a precise and effective genome editing technology; but despite several advancements during the last decade, our ability to computationally design gRNAs remains limited. Most predictive models have relatively low predictive power and utilize only the sequence of the target site as input. Here we suggest a new category of features, which incorporate the target site genomic position and the presence of genes close to it. We calculate four features based on gene expression and codon usage bias indices. We show, on CRISPR datasets taken from 3 different cell types, that such features perform comparably with 425 state-of-the-art predictive features, ranking in the top 2–12% of features. We trained new predictive models, showing that adding expression features to them significantly improves their r2 by up to 0.04 (relative increase of 39%), achieving average correlations of up to 0.38 on their validation sets; and that these features are deemed important by different feature importance metrics. We believe that incorporating the target site's position, in addition to its sequence, in features such as we have generated here will improve our ability to predict, design and understand CRISPR experiments going forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Severe trauma is the leading cause of disability and mortality in the patients under 35 years of age. Surgical site infections (SSI) represent a significant complication in this patient population. However, they are often inadequately investigated, potentially impacting the quality of patient outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of SSI and risk factors in severe trauma patients. Methods: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study screening the severe trauma patients (STP) admitted to two intensive care units of an academic institution in Marseille between years2018 and 2019. Those who underwent orthopedic or spinal surgery within 5 days after admission were included and classified into two groups according to the occurrence of SSI (defined by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) international diagnostic criteria) or not. Our secondary goal was to evaluate STP survival at 48 months, risk factors for SSI and microbiological features of SSI. Results: Forty-seven (23%) out of 207 STP developed an SSI. Mortality at 48-months did not differ between SSI and non-SSI patients (12.7% vs. 10.0%; p = 0.59). The fractures of 22 (47%) severe trauma patients with SSI were classified as Cauchoix 3 grade and 18 (38%) SSI were associated with the need for external fixators. Thirty (64%) severe trauma patients with SSI had polymicrobial infection, including 34 (72%) due to Gram-positive cocci. Empirical antibiotic therapy was effective in 31 (66%) cases. Multivariate analysis revealed that risk factors such as low hemoglobin, arterial oxygenation levels, hyperlactatemia, high serum creatinine and glycemia, and Cauchoix 3 grade on the day of surgery were associated with SSI in severe trauma patients. The generated predictive model showed a good prognosis performance with an AUC of 0.80 [0.73–0.88] and a high NPV of 95.9 [88.6–98.5] %. Conclusions: Our study found a high rate of SSI in severe trauma patients, although SSI was not associated with 48-month mortality. Several modifiable risk factors for SSI may be effectively managed through enhanced perioperative monitoring and the implementation of a patient blood management strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on predicting the prognosis of acute ischemic stroke patients with focal neurologic symptoms using a combination of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) and clinical information. The primary outcome is a poor functional outcome defined by a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 3–6 after 3 months of stroke. Employing nnUnet for DWI lesion segmentation, the study utilizes both multi-task and multi-modality methodologies, integrating DWI and clinical data for prognosis prediction. Integrating the two modalities was shown to improve performance by 0.04 compared to using DWI only. The model achieves notable performance metrics, with a dice score of 0.7375 for lesion segmentation and an area under the curve of 0.8080 for mRS prediction. These results surpass existing scoring systems, showing a 0.16 improvement over the Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events score. The study further employs grad-class activation maps to identify critical brain regions influencing mRS scores. Analysis of the feature map reveals the efficacy of the multi-tasking nnUnet in predicting poor outcomes, providing insights into the interplay between DWI and clinical data. In conclusion, the integrated approach demonstrates significant advancements in prognosis prediction for cerebral infarction patients, offering a superior alternative to current scoring systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shear strength (SS) parameters are essential for understanding the mechanical behavior of materials, particularly in geotechnical engineering and rock mechanics. This study proposes a novel hierarchical ensemble model (HEM) to predict SS parameters: cohesion (C ) and angle of internal friction (φ ). The HEM addresses the limitations of traditional machine learning models. Its performance was validated using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and out-of-bag (OOB) evaluation methods. The model's accuracy was assessed with R-squared correlation (R2), absolute average relative error percentage (AAREP), Taylor diagrams, and quantile–quantile plots. The computational results demonstrated that the proposed HEM outperforms previous studies using the same database. The model predicted φ and C with R2 values of 0.93 and 0.979, respectively. The AAREP values were 1.96% for φ and 4.7% for C . These results indicate that the HEM significantly improves the prediction quality of φ and C , and exhibits strong generalization capability. Sensitivity analysis revealed that σ_3maxσ3max (maximum principal stress) had the greatest impact on modeling both φ and C . According to uncertainty analysis, the LOOCV and OOB had the widest uncertainty bands for the φ and C parameters, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The parametrization of the oblique corrections through S, T, and U – later extended by V, W and X – is a convenient way of comparing the predictions for various electroweak observables at the one-loop level between the Standard Model and its extensions. That parametrization assumes that the extensions under consideration have S U (2) × U (1) gauge symmetry and the tree-level relation m W = m Z cos θ W between the Weinberg angle and the gauge-boson masses. In models where that relation does not hold at the Lagrangian level, the parameter T is not ultraviolet-finite, making the parametrization inadequate. We present expressions that parametrize the difference of the various predictions of two models with m W ≠ m Z cos θ W in terms of oblique parameters. The parameter T does not play a role in those expressions. Conveniently, they may be reached from the ones that were derived for models with tree-level m W = m Z cos θ W , by performing a simple substitution for T. We also discuss the difficulties in using oblique parameters when comparing a model with m W ≠ m Z cos θ W to the Standard Model. Finally, we compute the relevant five oblique parameters S, U, V, W and X in the SM extended by both, hypercharge Y = 0 and Y = 1 , triplet scalars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces and analyzes three innovative Linear Prediction (LP) models, consisting of two Fractional Order (FO) LP models and an integer LP model. The closed-form expressions for the proposed methods-namely, Two Parameter FO Linear Prediction (TP-FLP), FO Convex Linear Prediction (FCLP), and integer Convex Linear Prediction (CLP)-are derived for derivative order 0 ≤ α ≤ 2 . These derivations contribute to a more profound understanding of underlying mathematical principles of the proposed predictor. The foundation of our proposed methodologies is based on the presentation of the current signal sample as a linear combination of the FO derivative of two past samples, coupled with the utilization of the convex combination technique. An extensive set of experiments is conducted to compare the effectiveness of the proposed models with baseline methods involving two traditional LP models: First- and Second-order LP, along with the One Parameter FO Linear Prediction (OP-FLP) model. The performance evaluation encompasses a diverse range of signal types, including sinusoidal waves, damped sine waves, electroencephalogram (EEG), and speech signals. The simulation results demonstrate significant advancements achieved by the proposed models. Notably, the proposed FCLP exhibits a remarkable prediction gain of 24.74 dB, outperforming baseline methods such as OP-FLP, First- and Second-order LP models, that achieve prediction gains of 23.17, 23.15, and 10.14 dB, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk complications in addition to mortality. Quantifying the risk of complications using artificial intelligence could be a way to design comprehensive patient healthcare programs. Objective: Predicting the probability of macro and microvascular complications in patients with DM through Machine Learning. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. Based on an outpatient follow-up program for diabetic patients, 64,081 records and 287 variables were identified, with highly unbalanced data. Predictive models for chronic kidney disease (CKD), lower extremity amputation (LEA), coronary heart disease (CHD), and early mortality (MOR) were developed. An exhaustive computational method was conducted to find the best combination between machine learning (ML) algorithms and sampling method. Results: The best model was determined by assessing its performance through the heuristics obtained from a comprehensive analysis of the accuracy and F1 values for ML, sampling, and dataset. Regarding each complication, 99.9% accuracy was obtained for LEA, 94.3% for CHD, 97.4% for MOR, and 98.8% for CKD. F1 was assessed to identify false positives, with 84.5% for CKD, 63.6% for MOR, 46.2% for LEA, and 44.8% for CHD. Conclusions: This ML model can be applied to predict CHD, CKD, and MOR. The success of ML predictions lies in the clinical definition of initial variables and their simplification for obtaining variables based on which the algorithms can identify patients that are likely to develop a complication. For clinical application of this system, it is necessary to assess the cross performance of metrics, as found here (accuracy higher 95% and F1-Score higher than 80%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Network reliability, named multistate stochastic cloud/edge-based network (MCEN) reliability afterwards, is defined as the probability that demands can be satisfied for an MCEN. It can be regarded as a performance indicator of the MCEN to measure the service capability. The concept of existing algorithms is to produce all of minimal system-state vectors for calculating MCEN reliability. However, such concept cannot response MCEN reliability in time when the MCEN scale becomes complicated in the Industry 4.0 environment. For providing MCEN reliability for decision making immediately, an architecture of a deep neural network (DNN) is developed to propose a prediction model for MCEN reliability such that MCEN capability with varied data can be learned promptly. To train the reliability prediction model, MCEN information is transformed to the suitable format, and the related information for DNN setting, including the determination of related functions, are defined with appropriate hyperparameters by using Bayesian Optimization. An illustrative case and a practical case of Amazon Web Service are provided to demonstrate the prediction model for MCEN reliability to show the availability and the efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current extension limit prediction model for offshore extended-reach well (ERW) in mudstone does not consider the formation collapse, which poses a huge risk to offshore drilling construction. To address this problem, this paper presents new open-hole extension limit prediction model for ERW. By considering formation collapse, rate of penetration (ROP), and annular pressure loss, the extension limit models during normal drilling and tripping were derived. The sensitivity of geological and engineering factors was evaluated by analyzing limits for wells 1H and 2H. The research results showed that: (1) The extension limit increases with the ROP and formation collapse duration, but decreases with the increase in mud weight, plastic viscosity, and flow rate. (2) In ERWs, the mud flow rate has a significant impact on the extension limit than the plastic viscosity of mud fluid. However, mud weight has the least impact compared to the two. (3) Considering various parameters, the predicted extension limit of well 1H, when the mud weight is 1.16 g/cm3 [9.67 ppg], is 1593.28 m [5225.96 ft] less than the limit when the collapse period is not considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tight sandstone reservoirs are significant sources of natural gas reserves. As traditional reserves become increasingly scarce and costly, optimizing the development of these reservoirs becomes crucial. This study introduces a novel two-phase gas–water flow model for single wells, incorporating both Darcy and non-Darcy flow equations. These equations are derived from mass conservation and momentum principles for both gas and water phases. Using data from a real tight gas well, our model, which includes stress-sensitive phases for gas and water, outperforms traditional Darcy flow models. Specifically, the average relative deviations in daily production rates were 0.1815% for gas and − 0.2677% for water, which are significantly smaller compared to traditional Darcy flow models. Further application of the non-Darcy flow model reveals strategies to enhance well performance. For example, mitigating liquid lock damage within a 2 m radius near the well could restore the permeability from 0.045 to 0.143 mD, thereby tripling the daily gas production. This non-Darcy flow model is easy to implement and shows significant potential in forecasting production yields in tight sandstone reservoirs, highlighting its importance in the petroleum and natural gas industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Legal documents, like contracts or laws, are subject to interpretation. Different people can have different interpretations of the very same document. Large parts of judicial branches all over the world are concerned with settling disagreements that arise, in part, from these different interpretations. In this context, it only seems natural that during the annotation of legal machine learning data sets, disagreement, how to report it, and how to handle it should play an important role. This article presents an analysis of the current state-of-the-art in the annotation of legal machine learning data sets. The results of the analysis show that all of the analysed data sets remove all traces of disagreement, instead of trying to utilise the information that might be contained in conflicting annotations. Additionally, the publications introducing the data sets often do provide little information about the process that derives the "gold standard" from the initial annotations, often making it difficult to judge the reliability of the annotation process. Based on the state-of-the-art, the article provides easily implementable suggestions on how to improve the handling and reporting of disagreement in the annotation of legal machine learning data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autonomous vehicles have limited computational resources and thus require efficient control systems. The cost and size of sensors have limited the development of self-driving cars. To overcome these restrictions, this study proposes an efficient framework for the operation of vision-based automatic vehicles; the framework requires only a monocular camera and a few inexpensive radars. The proposed algorithm comprises a multi-task UNet (MTUNet) network for extracting image features and constrained iterative linear quadratic regulator (CILQR) and vision predictive control (VPC) modules for rapid motion planning and control. MTUNet is designed to simultaneously solve lane line segmentation, the ego vehicle's heading angle regression, road type classification, and traffic object detection tasks at approximately 40 FPS for 228 × 228 pixel RGB input images. The CILQR controllers then use the MTUNet outputs and radar data as inputs to produce driving commands for lateral and longitudinal vehicle guidance within only 1 ms. In particular, the VPC algorithm is included to reduce steering command latency to below actuator latency, preventing performance degradation during tight turns. The VPC algorithm uses road curvature data from MTUNet to estimate the appropriate correction for the current steering angle at a look-ahead point to adjust the turning amount. The inclusion of the VPC algorithm in a VPC-CILQR controller leads to higher performance on curvy roads than the use of CILQR alone. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed autonomous driving system, which does not require high-definition maps, can be applied in current autonomous vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Furnace temperature and oxygen content are important parameters reflecting the combustion inside a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler. Accurately predicting boiler output is a complex task due to the high noise and nonsmoothness of actual boiler input and output data. In this paper, a new hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN), bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, and squeezing and excitation (SE) network prediction model is proposed to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of oxygen content and furnace temperature by combining the advantages of multiple deep learning networks. This network can extract spatiotemporal characteristics of input parameters such as coal feed to effectively predict boiler furnace temperature and oxygen content. CNNs can extract complex features such as dynamic and static nonlinearities between multiple variables affecting the furnace temperature and oxygen content, as well as high noise. The biLSTM network layer can efficiently handle the temporal information of irregular trends in modeling time series components; SE can extract the important information between channels through the feature relationships between channels for better overfeature extraction. The CNN-biLSTM-SE model can effectively solve the problem of nonlinear mapping complexity between inputs and outputs. Experiments show that the proposed CNN-biLSTM-SE model outperforms existing methods. The experimental results showed that the average MAPE errors for oxygen content prediction were CNN-biLSTM-SE (0.038), CNN-biLSTM with attention mechanism (AM) (0.043), CNN-biLSTM (0.051), CNN-LSTM (0.051), biLSTM (0.051), RNN (0.051), LSTM(0.0052), and CNN(0.0054). Extensive experiments in CFB boilers with oxygen content and furnace temperature show that the proposed CNN-biLSTM-SE model achieves better results in terms of goodness-of-fit, generalization ability and accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-label text classification (MLTC) aims to assign one or more labels to each document. Previous studies mainly use the label co-occurrence matrix obtained from the training set to establish the correlation between labels, but this approach ignores the noise in label co-occurrence, and applies the ungeneralizable label co-occurrence relationship to model testing and validation. In addition, labelling co-occurrence relationship globally lacks attention to a specific document, which results in the loss of the local label co-occurrence relationship. To address this issue, we introduced a new multi-label text classification model in this study, presenting CoocNet, which adopts a two-step label detection to effectively tackle the challenge of modeling label co-occurrence relations. The model first captures the global co-occurrence relationships of labels using the label co-occurrence matrix and denoises the label noise through the label denoising attention mechanism, and then uses a contrast learning strategy to capture the local label co-occurrence relationships among specific different documents. In particular, we unify the co-occurrence labeling into an auxiliary training task that runs parallel to the multi-label classification task. The new task supervises the learning of sentence representations for documents by leveraging the modeled label co-occurrence relationships, enhancing the model's generalization ability. Another novelty is that the auxiliary task is only active during model training, thereby preventing label co-occurrence relationships from interfering with the model's predictions outside the training phase. The experimental results on three benchmark datasets (Reuters-21578, AAPD, and RCV1) demonstrate that our model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: A dynamic molecular biomarker that can identify early efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy remains an unmet clinical need. Here we evaluate if a novel circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) assay, xM, used for treatment response monitoring (TRM), that quantifies changes in ctDNA tumor fraction (TF), can predict outcome benefits in patients treated with ICI alone or in combination with chemotherapy in a real-world (RW) cohort. Methods: This retrospective study consisted of patients with advanced cancer from the Tempus de-identified clinical genomic database who received longitudinal liquid-based next-generation sequencing. Eligible patients had a blood sample ≤ 40 days prior to the start of ICI initiation and an on-treatment blood sample 15–180 days post ICI initiation. TF was calculated via an ensemble algorithm that utilizes TF estimates derived from variants and copy number information. Patients with molecular response (MR) were defined as patients with a ≥ 50% decrease in TF between tests. In the subset of patients with rw-imaging data between 2 and 18 weeks of ICI initiation, the predictive value of MR in addition to rw-imaging was compared to a model of rw-imaging alone. Results: The evaluable cohort (N = 86) was composed of 14 solid cancer types. Patients received either ICI monotherapy (38.4%, N = 33) or ICI in combination with chemotherapy (61.6%, N = 53). Patients with MR had significantly longer rw-overall survival (rwOS) (hazard ratio (HR) 0.4, P = 0.004) and rw-progression free survival (rwPFS) (HR 0.4, P = 0.005) than patients with molecular non-response (nMR). Similar results were seen in the ICI monotherapy subcohort; HR 0.2, P = 0.02 for rwOS and HR 0.2, P = 0.01 for rwPFS. In the subset of patients with matched rw-imaging data (N = 51), a model incorporating both MR and rw-imaging was superior in predicting rwOS than rw-imaging alone (P = 0.02). Conclusions: xM used for TRM is a novel serial quantitative TF algorithm that can be used clinically to evaluate ICI therapy efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing carbon price decomposition methods make effective predictions, promote energy saving and emission reduction, and play an increasingly important role in carbon trading platforms. However, there have been limited studies on reorganization methods and different perspectives for treating decomposition components. In this paper, we introduce a novel component fusion method and develop a hierarchical carbon price prediction model with two levels: a local perspective and an overall perspective. Firstly, the carbon price data are decomposed and the resulting components are subjected to deviation sample entropy fusion, which classifies them into high, medium, and low frequencies according to the physical significance of the entropy values. Next, fine-grained predictions are conducted for the high, medium, and low frequency components, forming the local layer. Subsequently, the decomposition error correction is proposed to obtain the data of the overall layer, and a secondary decomposition of this data is done. Finally, the prediction values from the two levels are summed to obtain the final prediction results. Experimental results from three markets, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Beijing, demonstrate that the proposed fusion method can directly identify the optimal component reorganization scheme, and the model prediction ability is better than the conventional secondary decomposition model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the reproducibility of learned explanations for black-box predictions via model distillation using classification trees. We find that common tree distillation methods fail to reproduce a single stable explanation when applied to the same teacher model due the randomness of the distillation process. We study this issue of reliable interpretation and propose a standardized framework for tree distillation to achieve reproducibility. The proposed framework consists of (1) a statistical test to stabilize tree splits, and (2) a stopping rule for tree building when using a teacher that provides an estimate of the uncertainty of its predictions, e.g. random forests. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the proposed distillation method on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning models are used in many sensitive areas where, besides predictive accuracy, their comprehensibility is also essential. Interpretability of prediction models is necessary to determine their biases and causes of errors and is a prerequisite for users' confidence. For complex state-of-the-art black-box models, post-hoc model-independent explanation techniques are an established solution. Popular and effective techniques, such as IME, LIME, and SHAP, use perturbation of instance features to explain individual predictions. Recently, (Slack et al. in Fooling LIME and SHAP: Adversarial attacks on post-hoc explanation methods, 2020) put their robustness into question by showing that their outcomes can be manipulated due to inadequate perturbation sampling employed. This weakness would allow owners of sensitive models to deceive inspection and hide potentially unethical or illegal biases existing in their predictive models. Such possibility could undermine public trust in machine learning models and give rise to legal restrictions on their use. We show that better sampling in these explanation methods prevents malicious manipulations. The proposed sampling uses data generators that learn the training set distribution and generate new perturbation instances much more similar to the training set. We show that the improved sampling increases the LIME and SHAP's robustness, while the previously untested method IME is the most robust. Further ablation studies show how the enhanced sampling changes the quality of explanations, reveal differences between data generators, and analyze the effect of different level of conservatism in the employment of biased classifiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel approach to explain the predictions made by data-driven methods. Since such predictions rely heavily on the data used for training, explanations that convey information about how the training data affects the predictions are useful. The paper proposes a novel approach to quantify how different data-clusters of the training data affect a prediction. The quantification is based on Shapley values, a concept which originates from coalitional game theory, developed to fairly distribute the payout among a set of cooperating players. A player's Shapley value is a measure of that player's contribution. Shapley values are often used to quantify feature importance, ie. how features affect a prediction. This paper extends this to cluster importance, letting clusters of the training data act as players in a game where the predictions are the payouts. The novel methodology proposed in this paper lets us explore and investigate how different clusters of the training data affect the predictions made by any black-box model, allowing new aspects of the reasoning and inner workings of a prediction model to be conveyed to the users. The methodology is fundamentally different from existing explanation methods, providing insight which would not be available otherwise, and should complement existing explanation methods, including explanations based on feature importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesity is an abnormal and potentially dangerous condition caused by excess body fat accumulation. The number of people with obesity is increasing worldwide. Obesity is the primary cause of various diseases; therefore, it is crucial to make efforts to control body weight. Identifying the factors that influence men with obesity to attempt to control and not control their weight is essential. The objective of this study was to create a prediction model for weight control experience among Korean men in their 30 s and 40 s. We analyzed data from the 2022 Community Health Survey and included 12,311 men who were overweight or obese. The men were divided into two groups based on their weight control experience: (1) Yes group (n = 9405) and (2) No group (n = 2906). Chi-square and independent t-tests were used to compare general and health-related characteristics between the groups. Decision tree analysis was used to build a prediction model for weight control experience. A split-sample test was conducted to validate the model. From the results of this study, various models predicting weight control experience were derived. From the decision tree model without setting the first node, those who weighed below average, had a high school diploma or less, and did not know their blood sugar levels had the highest probability of not controlling their weight at 55.3%. In the prediction model where the first node was set to age, those in their 40 s who thought their weight was below average and were unaware of their blood sugar levels had the highest rate of not trying to control their weight at 50.1%. In the prediction model where the first node was set to BMI, those who were overweight but thought their weight was below average and had a high school diploma or less had the highest rate of not trying to control their weight at 51.5%. There is an urgent need to provide obesity prevention and management education to those who have no weight control experience, particularly those at high risk, as identified in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multiple organ failure/dysfunction syndrome (MOF/MODS) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among severe trauma patients. Current clinical practices entail monitoring physiological measurements and applying clinical score systems to diagnose its onset. Instead, we aimed to develop an early prediction model for MOF outcome evaluated soon after traumatic injury by performing machine learning analysis of genome-wide transcriptome data from blood samples drawn within 24 h of traumatic injury. We then compared its performance to baseline injury severity scores and detection of infections. Methods: Buffy coat transcriptome and linked clinical datasets from blunt trauma patients from the Inflammation and the Host Response to Injury Study ("Glue Grant") multi-center cohort were used. According to the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 141 adult (age ≥ 16 years old) blunt trauma patients (excluding penetrating) with early buffy coat (≤ 24 h since trauma injury) samples were analyzed, with 58 MOF-cases and 83 non-cases. We applied the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms to select features and develop models for MOF early outcome prediction. Results: The LASSO model included 18 transcripts (AUROC [95% CI]: 0.938 [0.890–0.987] (training) and 0.833 [0.699–0.967] (test)), and the XGBoost model included 41 transcripts (0.999 [0.997–1.000] (training) and 0.907 [0.816–0.998] (test)). There were 16 overlapping transcripts comparing the two panels (0.935 [0.884–0.985] (training) and 0.836 [0.703–0.968] (test)). The biomarker models notably outperformed models based on injury severity scores and sex, which we found to be significantly associated with MOF (APACHEII + sex—0.649 [0.537–0.762] (training) and 0.493 [0.301–0.685] (test); ISS + sex—0.630 [0.516–0.744] (training) and 0.482 [0.293–0.670] (test); NISS + sex—0.651 [0.540–0.763] (training) and 0.525 [0.335–0.714] (test)). Conclusions: The accurate assessment of MOF from blood samples immediately after trauma is expected to aid in improving clinical decision-making and may contribute to reduced morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Moreover, understanding the molecular mechanisms involving the transcripts identified as important for MOF prediction may eventually aid in developing novel interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In sepsis, the relationship between lymphocyte counts and patient outcomes is complex. Lymphocytopenia and lymphocytosis significantly influence survival, illustrating the dual functionality of lymphocytes in responding to infections. This study investigates this complex interaction, focusing on how variations in lymphocyte counts correlate with all-cause hospital mortality among sepsis patients. Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from two extensive critical care databases: the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV 2.0 (MIMIC-IV 2.0) from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, and the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), which was Multi-center database from over 200 hospitals across the United States conducted by Philips eICU Research Institute. We included adult patients aged 18 years and older who met the Sepsis-3 criteria, characterized by documented or suspected infection and a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score of 2 or higher. Sepsis patients were categorized into quartiles based on lymphocyte counts. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the hospital, with 90 and 60-day all-cause mortality as the secondary outcomes. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regressions were utilized to assess lymphocyte counts' impact on hospital mortality. An adjusted restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was performed to elucidate this relationship further. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to explore the association across various comorbidity groups among sepsis and septic shock patients. Results: Our study included 37,054 patients, with an observed in-hospital mortality rate of 16.6%. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models showed that lymphocyte counts were independently associated with in-hospital mortality (HR = 1.04, P < 0.01; HR = 1.06, P < 0.01). RCS regression analysis revealed a U-shaped relationship between lymphocyte levels and hospital mortality risk in sepsis and septic shock patients (P for overall < 0.001, P for nonliner < 0.01; P for overall = 0.002, P for nonliner = 0.014). Subgroup analyses revealed that elevated lymphocyte counts correlated with increased hospital mortality among sepsis patients with liver disease and requiring renal replacement therapy (P for overall = 0.021, P for nonliner = 0.158; P for overall = 0.025, P for nonliner = 0.759). These findings suggest that lymphocytes may have enhanced prognostic value in specific subsets of critically ill sepsis patients. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate that lymphocyte counts are a significant independent predictor of hospital mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. We observed a U-shaped association between lymphocyte levels and mortality risk, indicating that high and low counts are linked to increased mortality. This result highlights the complex role of lymphocytes in sepsis outcomes and suggests the need for further investigation into the underlying mechanisms and potential therapeutic approaches. Integrating lymphocyte count assessment into risk stratification algorithms and clinical decision support tools could enhance the early identification of high-risk sepsis patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rheological parameters of oil testing fluids play a crucial role in safely conducting oil testing operations, protecting reservoirs, and maintaining wellbore integrity, which are greatly influenced by temperature and pressure. This article conducted rheological experiments on commonly used potassium salt polymer systems and organic salt systems for oil testing fluids in the Bohai Bay Oilfield under 4–200 °C and 30–150 MPa. The experiments revealed the variation of rheological parameters with temperature and pressure. Nine commonly used rheological models were evaluated for their applicability to the two types of oil testing fluids. It was found that the Ross model was suitable for the potassium salt polymer system, while the power-law model was suitable for organic salt oil testing fluids. A new rheological parameter prediction model suitable for wide range of temperature and pressure and different testing fluid systems was proposed based on the optimized results. The average error for the potassium salt polymer system for oil testing fluids was 0.101%, and the error for the organic salt system for oil testing fluids was 0.113%. Both were superior to known rheological models and can meet the requirements of oil testing operations within the wide temperature and pressure range in the Bohai Bay Oilfield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal mobility patterns and next location prediction of fake base stations (FBS) provide important technical support for the police to prevent spam messages from FBS. However, due to the difficulty in locating their real-time locations, our understanding of the mobility patterns and predictability of FBS is still limited. Based on the crowdsourced spam data, we extract the time and potential locations of FBS and propose a Tucker-MMC method that combines Tucker decomposition with a Mobility Markov Chain (MMC) model to investigate the mobility patterns and predictability of FBS sending spam messages. First, we utilize Tucker decomposition to reflect the spatial and temporal preferences during the movement of the corresponding FBS. Then the mobility regularity and the theoretical maximum predictability of the FBS trajectories with similar mobility preferences are analyzed by entropy and Fano's inequality. A Tucker-MMC is also established for the next location prediction. The results using the spam dataset in Beijing show that the accuracy of Tucker-MMC is more than double that of the MMC. The accuracy of the actual location prediction model is more likely to approach the theoretical maximum predictability when FBS send spam messages in a shorter time, shorter transfer distance, and smaller access range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS) diagnosis is complicated by limited genetic testing at scale, low prevalence, and normal QT corrected interval in patients with high-risk genotypes. We developed a deep learning approach combining electrocardiogram (ECG) waveform and electronic health record data to assess whether patients had pathogenic variants causing LQTS. We defined patients with high-risk genotypes as having ≥1 pathogenic variant in one of the LQTS-susceptibility genes. We trained the model using data from United Kingdom Biobank (UKBB) and then fine-tuned in a racially/ethnically diverse cohort using Mount Sinai BioMe Biobank. Following group-stratified 5-fold splitting, the fine-tuned model achieved area under the precision-recall curve of 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28–0.29) and area under the receiver operating curve of 0.83 (0.82–0.83) on independent testing data from BioMe. Multimodal fusion learning has promise to identify individuals with pathogenic genetic mutations to enable patient prioritization for further work up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a major cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhea and colitis. It is recognized as one of the most significant hospital-acquired infections. Although CDI can develop severe complications and spores of Clostridioides difficile can be transmitted by the fecal-oral route, CDI is occasionally overlooked in clinical settings. Thus, it is necessary to monitor high CDI risk groups, particularly those undergoing antibiotic treatment, to prevent complications and spread. We developed and validated a deep learning-based model to predict the occurrence of CDI within 28 days after starting antibiotic treatment using longitudinal electronic health records. For each patient, timelines of vital signs and laboratory tests with a 35-day monitoring period and a patient information vector consisting of age, sex, comorbidities, and medications were constructed. Our model achieved the prediction performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.952 (95% CI: 0.932–0.973) in internal validation and 0.972 (95% CI: 0.968–0.975) in external validation. Platelet count and body temperature emerged as the most important features. The risk score, the output value of the model, exhibited a consistent increase in the CDI group, while the risk score in the non-CDI group either maintained its initial value or decreased. Using our CDI prediction model, high-risk patients requiring symptom monitoring can be identified. This could help reduce the underdiagnosis of CDI, thereby decreasing transmission and preventing complications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to develop prognostic models for predicting the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with COVID-19 and compare their performance with the Respiratory rate-OXygenation (ROX) index. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data collected between March 2020 and August 2021 at three hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. ICU patients aged 18 years and older with a diagnosis of COVID-19 were screened. The exclusion criteria were patients who received IMV within the first 24 h of ICU admission, pregnancy, clinical decision for minimal end-of-life care and missing primary outcome data. Clinical and laboratory variables were collected. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to select predictor variables. Models were based on the lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and lowest AIC with significant p values. Assessment of predictive performance was done for discrimination and calibration. Areas under the curves (AUC)s were compared using DeLong's algorithm. Models were validated externally using an international database. Results: Of 656 patients screened, 346 patients were included; 155 required IMV (44.8%), 191 did not (55.2%), and 207 patients were male (59.8%). According to the lowest AIC, arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, heart rate, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), temperature, respiratory effort signals, and leukocytes were identified as predictors of IMV at hospital admission. According to AIC with significant p values, SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals were the best predictors of IMV; odds ratios (95% confidence interval): 1.46 (1.07–2.05), 0.81 (0.72–0.90), 9.13 (3.29–28.67), respectively. The ROX index at admission was lower in the IMV group than in the non-IMV group (7.3 [5.2–9.8] versus 9.6 [6.8–12.9], p < 0.001, respectively). In the external validation population, the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROX index was 0.683 (accuracy 63%), the AIC model showed an AUC of 0.703 (accuracy 69%), and the lowest AIC model with significant p values had an AUC of 0.725 (accuracy 79%). Conclusions: In the development population of ICU patients with COVID-19, SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals predicted the need for IMV better than the ROX index. In the external validation population, although the AUCs did not differ significantly, the accuracy was higher when using SOFA score, SpO2, and respiratory effort signals compared to the ROX index. This suggests that these variables may be more useful in predicting the need for IMV in ICU patients with COVID-19. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05663528. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Load prediction tasks aim to predict the dynamic trend of future load based on historical performance sequences, which are crucial for cloud platforms to make timely and reasonable task scheduling. However, existing prediction models are limited while capturing complicated temporal patterns from the load sequences. Besides, the frequently adopted global weighting strategy (e.g., the self-attention mechanism) in temporal modeling schemes has quadratic computational complexity, hindering the immediate response of cloud servers in complex real-time scenarios. To address the above limitations, we propose a Wavelet decomposition-enhanced External Transformer (WETformer) to provide accurate yet efficient load prediction for cloud servers. Specifically, we first incorporate discrete wavelet transform to progressively extract long-term trends, highlighting the intrinsic attributes of temporal sequences. Then, we propose a lightweight multi-head External Attention (EA) mechanism to simultaneously consider the inter-element relationships within load sequences and the correlations across different sequences. Such an external component has linear computational complexity, mitigating the encoding redundancy prevalent and enhancing prediction efficiency. Extensive experiments conducted on Alibaba Cloud's cluster tracking dataset demonstrate that WETformer achieves superior prediction accuracy and the shortest inference time compared to several state-of-the-art baseline methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perceptual decisions should depend on sensory evidence. However, such decisions are also influenced by past choices and outcomes. These choice history biases may reflect advantageous strategies to exploit temporal regularities of natural environments. However, it is unclear whether and how observers can adapt their choice history biases to different temporal regularities, to exploit the multitude of temporal correlations that exist in nature. Here, we show that male mice adapt their perceptual choice history biases to different temporal regularities of visual stimuli. This adaptation was slow, evolving over hundreds of trials across several days. It occurred alongside a fast non-adaptive choice history bias, limited to a few trials. Both fast and slow trial history effects are well captured by a normative reinforcement learning algorithm with multi-trial belief states, comprising both current trial sensory and previous trial memory states. We demonstrate that dorsal striatal dopamine tracks predictions of the model and behavior, suggesting that striatal dopamine reports reward predictions associated with adaptive choice history biases. Our results reveal the adaptive nature of perceptual choice history biases and shed light on their underlying computational principles and neural correlates. The world exhibits temporal regularities that can be exploited to improve perceptual decisions. Here, the authors show that mice adapt to such regularities, well described by reinforcement learning, and that dopamine release in the striatum tracks this adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning has enabled breakthroughs in automated diagnosis from medical imaging, with many successful applications in ophthalmology. However, standard medical image classification approaches only assess disease presence at the time of acquisition, neglecting the common clinical setting of longitudinal imaging. For slow, progressive eye diseases like age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), patients undergo repeated imaging over time to track disease progression and forecasting the future risk of developing a disease is critical to properly plan treatment. Our proposed Longitudinal Transformer for Survival Analysis (LTSA) enables dynamic disease prognosis from longitudinal medical imaging, modeling the time to disease from sequences of fundus photography images captured over long, irregular time periods. Using longitudinal imaging data from the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) and Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), LTSA significantly outperformed a single-image baseline in 19/20 head-to-head comparisons on late AMD prognosis and 18/20 comparisons on POAG prognosis. A temporal attention analysis also suggested that, while the most recent image is typically the most influential, prior imaging still provides additional prognostic value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a study where predictive mechanistic modeling is combined with deep learning methods to predict individual patient survival probabilities under immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) immunotherapy. This hybrid approach enables prediction based on both measures that are calculable from mechanistic models of key mechanisms underlying ICI therapy that may not be directly measurable in the clinic and easily measurable quantities or patient characteristics that are not always readily incorporated into predictive mechanistic models. A deep learning time-to-event predictive model trained on a hybrid mechanistic + clinical data set from 93 patients achieved higher per-patient predictive accuracy based on event-time concordance, Brier score, and negative binomial log-likelihood-based criteria than when trained on only mechanistic model-derived values or only clinical data. Feature importance analysis revealed that both clinical and model-derived parameters play prominent roles in increasing prediction accuracy, further supporting the advantage of our hybrid approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While growing evidence suggests a relationship between migraine and cardiovascular disease, the genetic evidence for a causal relationship between migraine and cardiovascular disease is still scarce. Investigating the causal association between migraine and cardiovascular disease is vital. Methods: We carried out a bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) study including discovery samples and replication samples using publicly available genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary datasets and stringent screening instrumental variables. Four different MR techniques—Inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR ‒Egger, weighted median, and weighted mode—as well as various sensitivity analyses—Cochran's Q, IVW radial, leave-one-out (LOO), and MR-PRESSO—were utilized to investigate the causal relationship between cardiovascular disease and migraine. Results: The protective causal effects of genetically predicted migraine on coronary artery disease (OR, 0.881; 95% CI 0.790–0.982; p = 0.023) and ischemic stroke (OR, 0.912; 95% CI 0.854–0.974; p = 0.006) were detected in forward MR analysis but not in any other cardiovascular disease. Consistently, we also discovered protective causal effects of coronary atherosclerosis (OR, 0.865; 95% CI 0.797–0.940; p = 0.001) and myocardial infarction (OR, 0.798; 95% CI 0.668–0.952; p = 0.012) on migraine in reverse MR analysis. Conclusion: We found a potential protective effect of migraine on coronary artery disease and ischemic stroke and a potential protective effect of coronary atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction on migraine. We emphasised epidemiological and genetic differences and the need for long-term safety monitoring of migraine medications and future research to improve cardiovascular outcomes in migraine patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As we all know, momentum plays a crucial role in ball game. Based on the 2023 Wimbledon final data, this paper investigated momentum in tennis. Firstly, we initially trained a decision tree regression model on reprocessed data for prediction, and established the CBRF model based on CatBoost regression and random forest regression models to obtain prediction data. Secondly, significant non-zero autocorrelation coefficients were found, confirming the correlation between momentum and success. Thirdly, Based on these key factors, we proposed winning strategies for the players, conducted predictive analyses for six specific time intervals of the game. At last, by implementing these models to women's matches, championships, matches on different surfaces, the results demonstrated that the models have effective generalization ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the severity and prognosis of sepsis with or without progressive delirium is relatively insufficient. We constructed a prediction model of the risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients who developed sepsis or sepsis-associated delirium. The modeling group of patients diagnosed with Sepsis-3 and patients with progressive delirium of related indicators were selected from the MIMIC-IV database. Relevant independent risk factors were determined and integrated into the prediction model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) test were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy and goodness-of-fit of the model. Relevant indicators of patients with sepsis or progressive delirium admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a 3A hospital in Xinjiang were collected and included in the verification group for comparative analysis and clinical validation of the prediction model. The total length of stay in the ICU, hemoglobin levels, albumin levels, activated partial thrombin time, and total bilirubin level were the five independent risk factors in constructing a prediction model. The area under the ROC curve of the predictive model (0.904) and the HL test result (χ2 = 8.518) indicate a good fit. This model is valuable for clinical diagnosis and treatment and auxiliary clinical decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a systematic modeling framework, comprising a prediction model, a super-SBM model, and a spatial autocorrelation analysis model, to explore the spatial–temporal evolution tendencies of development efficiency within China's 30 regions in the low-carbon sports industry from 2006 to 2025. This framework aims to provide theoretical insights for the formulation of more targeted policies. Based on the empirical findings, the main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) The optimal buffer operator grey prediction model demonstrates the highest accuracy among the prediction models examined. (2) The development efficiency curves of the 30 regions exhibit a significant increasing trend from 2006 to 2021, with values generally peaking between 0.4 and 0.6. (3) Notably, the disparity in development efficiency between developed and less developed regions is expected to progressively widen. (4) The development efficiency of the low-carbon sports industry across the 30 regions typically displays high-high clustering and low-low clustering during China's four five-year plan periods. This underscores the importance and urgency of promoting regional coordinated development within the low-carbon sports industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calcification has significant influence over cardiovascular diseases and interventions. Detailed characterization of calcification is thus desired for predictive modeling, but calcium deposits on cardiovascular structures are still often manually reconstructed for physics-driven simulations. This poses a major bottleneck for large-scale adoption of computational simulations for research or clinical use. To address this, we propose an end-to-end automated image-to-mesh algorithm that enables robust incorporation of patient-specific calcification onto a given cardiovascular tissue mesh. The algorithm provides a substantial speed-up from several hours of manual meshing to ~1 min of automated computation, and it solves an important problem that cannot be addressed with recent template-based meshing techniques. We validated our final calcified tissue meshes with extensive simulations, demonstrating our ability to accurately model patient-specific aortic stenosis and Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement. Our method may serve as an important tool for accelerating the development and usage of personalized cardiovascular biomechanics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonholonomic constrained wheeled mobile robot (WMR) trajectory tracking requires the enhancement of the ground adaptation capability of the WMR while ensuring its attitude tracking accuracy, a novel dual closed-loop control structure is developed to implement this motion/force coordinated control objective in this paper. Firstly, the outer-loop motion controller is presented using Laguerre functions modified model predictive control (LMPC). Optimised solution condition is introduced to reduce the number of LMPC solutions. Secondly, an inner-loop force controller based on adaptive integral sliding mode control (AISMC) is constructed to ensure the desired velocity tracking and output driving torques by combining second-order nonlinear extended state observer (ESO) with the estimation of dynamic uncertainties and external disturbances during WMR travelling process. Then, Lyapunov stability theory is utilised to guarantee the consistent final boundedness of the designed controller. Finally, the system is numerically simulated and practically verified. The results show that the double-closed-loop control strategy devised in this paper has better control performance in terms of complex trajectory tracking accuracy, system resistance to strong interference and computational timeliness, and is able to realise effective coordinated control of WMR motion/force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]