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Inherent biases in numerical simulation models of global climate models (GCMs) reduce the scope for accurately assessing future droughts under multimodel ensemble. The aim of this research is to increase the efficiency of multimodel ensembles. Consequently, this paper introduces a two-way hybrid weighting scheme for ensembling multiple GCMs. The proposed weighting scheme enhances the coherence of the multimodel ensemble of climate model simulations with real observed data and minimizes the impact of non-identical seasonal behavior in climate simulations within the multimodel ensemble. In the application, we consider precipitation data from 18 GCMs of CMIP6 from the Tibet Plateau region. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, we compared the proposed ensemble data with simple model averaged (SMA) ensemble using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Furthermore, we assessed the future characteristics of various drought categories using the steady-state probabilities of a Markov Chain. Small values of errors metircs and high correlation indicate that the proposed hybrid weighting scheme exhibits better performance than the SMA. Under the proposed index, the long term probabilities of various drought classe show variations across different time scales of drought. These results provide perspectives on how the the long term probabilities of various drought categories evolve over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the third decade of the 21st century, digitization and artificial intelligence, global events, challenges from authoritarian states, and difficulties of particular democracies to function properly confront democracy with a new series of challenges and opportunities that will force it to reinvent itself. The last decades have produced an accelerating flow of ideas for new forms of democracy. We survey a long period in the quest for such new forms and point to next inventions for such forms. We suggest to experiment with new ways for democracy to extend the choice of democratic processes that can be implemented in real-life situations, with the beneficial side-effect that democracy might remain the only sustainable structure for self-governing societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The book review discusses an anthology titled "Historic preservation theory: an anthology—readings from the 18th to the 21st Century," edited by Jorge Otero-Pailos. The anthology contains 96 texts spanning four centuries and covers various geographies, disciplines, and epochs. It aims to provide students with a wider international and historical perspective on historic preservation theory. The book is organized chronologically, starting from the European Enlightenment, which has raised questions about the inclusivity and diversity of the discipline. The review acknowledges the need for redressing historiographical inequity and calls for a reconstitution of the field of historic preservation to address the challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change and sustainability. [Extracted from the article]

This review explores the significant advancements in paediatric surgery in Africa during the twenty-first century, with a particular focus on capacity-building, education, infrastructural development, and research. Historically, paediatric surgery has been an overlooked sector, especially in low-and-middle-income countries in Africa. However, recent years have seen considerable progress. Collaborative efforts such as the Global Initiative for Children's Surgery, and the formation of the Pan African Paediatric Surgery Association, the College of Surgeons of East, Central and Southern Africa and the West African College of Surgeons have facilitated knowledge sharing, collaboration, and advocacy for enhancing surgical standards. Local training programmes, including Master of Medicine programmes and fellowships, have been instrumental in building a skilled workforce. These initiatives have been complemented by infrastructural developments through non-governmental organisations like Kids Operating Room, which have expanded access to paediatric surgical care. Technological advancements, particularly in telemedicine, have further enhanced accessibility. Task-sharing strategies, where non-specialist physicians are trained in paediatric surgical skills, have also been utilised to address the shortage of specialised surgeons. Research in paediatric surgery has experienced an upswing, with local health professionals taking the lead. Research has been crucial for understanding the epidemiology of paediatric surgical conditions, and developing prevention strategies, and is increasingly leading to the inclusion of paediatric surgery in national health plans. Despite the progress, challenges remain, including the need for sustainable funding, continued investment in infrastructure, and training and retention of healthcare professionals. The review emphasises the importance of ongoing efforts in community engagement, innovative technologies, and health systems strengthening for the sustainable development of paediatric surgical services in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a severe non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Life expectancy has improved with rituximab, but cause-specific mortality data is lacking. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to study 27,449 individuals aged 20–74 years diagnosed with primary DLBCL who received chemotherapy between 2000 and 2019, we calculated standardized mortality rate (SMR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) and examined the connection between age, sex, time after diagnosis, and cause of death. Based on 12,205 deaths, 68.7% were due to lymphoma, 20.1% non-cancer causes, and 11.2% other cancers. Non-cancer mortality rates (SMR 1.2; EAR, 21.5) increased with DLBCL compared to the general population. The leading non-cancer death causes were cardiovascular (EAR, 22.6; SMR, 1.6) and infectious (EAR, 9.0; SMR, 2.9) diseases with DLBCL. Risks for non-cancer death and solid neoplasms are highest within the first diagnosis year, then decrease. Among socioeconomic factors, being white, being married, and having a higher income were favorable factors for reducing non-cancer mortality. To improve survival, close surveillance, assessment of risk factors, and early intervention are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tails of the probability distribution host extremes. The distributions are typically classified into heavy or light-tailed distributions subjected to their tail behavior, out of which the former signifies frequent happenings of extreme events. The present study demonstrates the analysis where the outputs from 13 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used to evaluate changes in the tail behavior of precipitation extremes that will preside over India for the twenty-first century. A straightforward empirical index known as the "obesity index" (OB) is utilized to measure the tail heaviness for each of the 4801 daily precipitation records over India for historical (1970–2019) and future (2020–2100) time periods. The same approach was used to characterize daily precipitation tails in the Indian meteorological subdivisions and across different climate types during various periods. The results highlight that heavy-tailed distributions are well-suited for daily precipitation extremes in India, with OB values above 0.75 observed in nearly all grids for both present and future scenarios. Notably, in the case of the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 585 climate scenario, which is the worst climate scenario, approximately 42.82% of grids exhibit the highest range of OB from 0.85 to 0.9 relative to other SSP scenarios. The findings also show that the largest to smallest heavy tails are associated with major climate types E (polar), B (arid), A (tropical), and C (temperate). Large heavy-tailed extremes are observed in ET, BSh, BWh, and Aw for climate subtypes, while relatively lighter-tailed extremes were observed in Am and Cwb. Furthermore, the variation in the OB is found to be non-linear with the elevation. In climatic zones Aw, BSh, Cwa, and ET, a U-shaped pattern is observed, while in climate zone Cwb, it shows a concave increase. Conversely, curves are convex decreasing for As, BWh, Csa, and convex increasing for zone Am. The conclusions from this study can help policymakers in designing adaptation plans in response to the anticipated effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought events have become increasingly frequent and intensive due to the combined influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities. However, it remains unclear how meteorological drought characteristics (duration, severity, and intensity) respond to the changing environment and what are the dominant factors determining the drought evolution in different climate regions. Here, we divide mainland China into four sub-climatic regions, namely the Humid region (HR), Transition region (TR), Arid region (AR), and Tibetan Plateau (TP), based on the aridity index and geomorphology. Then systematically investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of drought characteristics in different climate regions over China (during 2000–2019) based on the SPEI and run theory. And the contribution of precipitation (Pre) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to drought characteristics are quantitatively analyzed using a detrended numerical experiment method. We find that (1) a pattern of "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" was found in China. (2) Meteorological drought characteristics exhibit apparent regional heterogeneity: droughts in AR are of long duration and high severity, while droughts in HR and TR show a pattern of high frequency. (3) An increase in the annual Pre (PET) resulted in increases (decreases) in average SPEI in China of 45.18% (31.62%). Therefore, Pre is the dominant factor determining the increase of SPEI over China. For the four sub-climatic regions, Pre is the dominant factor in the increase of SPEI in TR and HR, with the contribution of 41.64% and 60.16%. PET is the dominant factor in the decrease of SPEI in AR, with the contribution of 50.11%. The contributions of Pre (45.09%) and PET (44.09%) in TP are roughly equivalent. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in shaping climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. By understanding the leading meteorological factors influencing drought, policymakers can implement effective measures to minimize the influence of disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In honor of its 50th anniversary, the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) held its XXV World Conference in Paris. The conference provided a venue for reviewing earlier developments and reevaluating prospective directions in the futures field. Scientific-based futures studies has a long history, drawing from a variety of fields including sociology, policy sciences, philosophy of science, economic prognostics, and environmental sustainability. Futures studies became widely acknowledged as an academic discipline in the 1960s when it became evident in the global scientific community. The 1970s saw a focus on global challenges and discussions about preferred futures. The synthesis of futures studies emerged in the 1980s and 1990s, with critical and evolutionary approaches contributing to the advancement of theoretical foundations. The twenty-first century focuses on anticipation and futures literacy, the development of post-normal, metamodern, and integral approaches, and the attainment of foresight in common practice. Future research is expected to focus on various aspects, including artificial general intelligence (AGI), socio-technical transitions, singularity, sustainability, societal collapses, entrepreneurial innovation, energy futures, decolonization, negation and post-prefix notions, systemic foresight, applied foresight, and on-site foresight. Future research activities are expected to also include research objects, policy challenges, and problems that do not yet exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia has a dry climate, scarce water resources, extremely fragile ecosystems, and frequent extreme precipitation events. Using the data of 22 global climate models in the CMIP6 plan, the trend of the extreme precipitation index under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was estimated by calculating eight extreme precipitation indices in Central Asia and optimizing the best multi-model set using the Taylor evaluation and comprehensive score. The results showed that in Central Asia, the CMIP6 mode and multi-mode collection can reasonably reproduce the regional differences of various severe precipitation indices. However, these results only performed well for consecutive dry days (CDD) and annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), but poorly for the replication of extreme high- and low-value regions. We found that the simulation effect of the multi-mode ensemble results was better than that of a single mode, and that CMIP6 can roughly depict the evolving characteristics of extreme precipitation events. However, the CMIP6 data performed poorly in terms of spatial divergence ability characteristics. According to the estimated results, mountainous regions have experienced considerable changes, and a significant increase in the range of change was observed for severe precipitation (consecutive wet days (CWD), single day maximum precipitation (Rx1day), and PRCPTOT) in wet and dry regions during the twenty-first century. Simultaneously, the humidification trend accelerated after 2050, and four shared socioeconomic paths showed similar trends; however, the extreme precipitation rate was higher under the high forcing path. Consecutive dry days (CDD) in Central Asia decreased by 90% under SSP5-8.5 relative to SSP1-2.6, whereas CWD, Rx1day, and PRCPTOT increased by 20%, 150%, and 118%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To adapt to Earth's rapidly changing climate, detailed modelling of thermal stress is needed. Dangerous stress levels are becoming more frequent, longer, and more severe. While traditional measurements of thermal stress have focused on air temperature and humidity, modern measures including radiation and wind speed are becoming widespread. However, projecting such indices has presented a challenging problem, due to the need for appropriate bias correction of multiple variables that vary on hourly timescales. In this paper, we aim to provide a detailed understanding of changing thermal stress patterns incorporating modern measurements, bias correction techniques, and hourly projections to assess the impact of climate change on thermal stress at human scales. To achieve these aims, we conduct a case study of projected thermal stress in central Hobart, Australia for 2040–2059, compared to the historical period 1990–2005. We present the first hourly metre-scale projections of thermal stress driven by multivariate bias-corrected data. We bias correct four variables from six dynamically downscaled General Circulation Models. These outputs drive the Solar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry model at metre scale, calculating mean radiant temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index. We demonstrate that multivariate bias correction can correct means on multiple time scales while accurately preserving mean seasonal trends. Changes in mean air temperature and UTCI by hour of the day and month of the year reveal diurnal and annual patterns in both temporal trends and model agreement. We present plots of future median stress values in the context of historical percentiles, revealing trends and patterns not evident in mean data. Our modelling illustrates a future Hobart that experiences higher and more consistent numbers of hours of heat stress arriving earlier in the year and extending further throughout the day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hot droughts, droughts attributed to below-average precipitation and exceptional warmth, are increasingly common in the twenty-first century, yet little is known about their effect on coniferous tree growth because of their historical rarity. In much of the American West, including California, radial tree growth is principally driven by precipitation, and narrow ring widths are typically associated with either drier or drought conditions. However, for species growing at high elevations (e.g., Larix lyalli, Pinus albicaulis), growth can be closely aligned with above-average temperatures with maximum growth coinciding with meteorological drought, suggesting that the growth effects of drought span from adverse to beneficial depending on location. Here, we compare radial growth responses of three high-elevation old-growth pines (Pinus jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, and P. contorta) growing in the San Jacinto Mountains, California, during a twenty-first-century hot drought (2000–2020) largely caused by exceptional warmth and a twentieth-century drought (1959–1966) principally driven by precipitation deficits. Mean radial growth during the hot drought was 12% above average while 18% below average during the mid-century drought illustrating that the consequences of environmental stress exhibit spatiotemporal variability. We conclude that the effects of hot droughts on tree growth in high-elevation forests may produce responses different than what is commonly associated with extended dry periods for much of western North America's forested lands at lower elevational ranges and likely applies to other mountainous regions (e.g., Mediterranean Europe) defined by summer-dry conditions. Thus, the climatological/biological interactions discovered in Southern California may offer clues to the unique nature of high-elevation forested ecosystems globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Re-reading the risk literature, I sketch a novel nomenclature for 36 dyadic risk interactions that constitute the prototypes of what eventually become cascading effects. This analysis demonstrates where cascading risk effects originate and also hints at how they get their enormous power. Risk dyads derive from basic first-order interactions across six disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, ecological impact, and health adversity. I give brief examples of each and provide a short case description of six of the most prominent dyads. Very few of these dyads have an existing shorthand. The exception is NaTech, which denotes natural disasters being amplified by, or amplifying industrial risk, or now more broadly, sci-tech-derived risk. By generalizing the NaTech-style nomenclature across domains, I aim to provide the basic building blocks for a precise understanding of contemporary risk mechanics. This step is often skipped by avid complexity scholars intent on first describing system-wide features. Yet, dyadic analysis is an important prerequisite for systemic understanding of complex cascading effects that depend on triadic or tetradic risk relationships. In reality, even if systemic, and existential risks, as they emerge in the twenty-first century, depend on a myriad of cascading effects, they cannot be fully understood simply by looking at the whole system and attempting to analytically ignore its constituent parts claiming to gain a better overview. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shuki Friedman's book, "Being a Nation State in the Twenty-First Century," explores the complex relationship between the state and religion in Israel. The book analyzes the erosion of the "status quo" and the impact of Supreme Court rulings on religious issues. Friedman suggests reframing the issue of state and religion to one of city and religion, allowing different cities to formulate their own religious-based legislation. However, this proposal may intensify religious self-segregation and hinder intergroup understanding and unity in Israel. The book provides valuable insights into Israeli society and the ongoing identity-based conflict between religious and secular factions. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: This study conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of bone pathologies between ancient Egypt and today. We aim to elucidate the prevalence, types, and potential aetiological factors influencing skeletal disorders in these two distinct temporal and cultural contexts. Methods: The research employs a multidisciplinary approach, integrating osteological, paleopathological, and historical data to understand bone pathologies in mummies and the actual world. Applying radiographs and CT scans as noninvasive techniques has shed new light on past diseases such as fractures, dysplasia, osteoarthritis, surgery, and tuberculosis. Virtual inspection has almost replaced classical autopsy and is essential, especially when dealing with museum specimens. Results: Findings indicate no significant disparities in the prevalence and types of bone pathologies through 4300 years of evolution. Moreover, this study sheds light on the impact of sociocultural factors on bone health. Examination of ancient Egypt's burial practices and associated cultural beliefs provides insights into potential behavioral and ritualistic influences on bone pathologies and the prevalence of specific pathologies in the past and present. Conclusion: This comparative analysis illuminates the dynamic of bone pathologies, highlighting the interplay of biological, cultural, and environmental factors. By synthesizing archeological and clinical data, this research contributes to a more nuanced understanding of skeletal health's complexities in ancient and modern societies, offering valuable insights for anthropological and clinical disciplines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the analysis of the simulation of the main climatological features of the Orinoco low-level jet (OLLJ) by a set of models included in the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their projected changes under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. We consider the 1979–2014 period to evaluate the historical simulations using the ERA5 reanalysis as the reference dataset. In general, CMIP6 models are able to capture the activation of the OLLJ during December-January–February (DJF) in the Orinoco basin, as well as the main links between this circulation and low-level moisture transport patterns in northern South America. Regarding the analysis of projections, CMIP6 models suggest a weakening and shrinking of the OLLJ, especially in its exit region, by the end of the twenty-first century, which in turn induces changes in atmospheric moisture transport patterns in the region during DJF. The projected changes of the OLLJ are associated with variations in the regional gradients of mean sea level pressure, near-surface air temperature, and surface sensible heat flux in association with drier conditions in the Orinoco basin. These projections are consistent with previous studies suggesting a drier Orinoco river basin throughout the twenty-first century. Assessing the projected changes of this low-level jet in northern South America improves our understanding of the different phenomena that modulate atmospheric moisture transport in the region, which is particularly important given its high vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electrochemistry education of future researchers is crucial if we are to decarbonise economies and reach targets for net zero, and this arguably begins with education in electrochemistry within undergraduate degrees. This paper reviews the teaching of electrochemistry in UK universities at the undergraduate degree level. We review where and how electrochemical concepts are introduced into chemistry, chemical engineering and materials science programmes. We provide some motivation for this review, which was stimulated by discussions from a workshop on the 'Future of Fundamental Electrochemistry Research in the UK', held in 2022. We summarise briefly how consensus on UK degree programme course content has been reached and inconsistencies that remain. Electrochemistry curriculum content from a convenience sample of UK universities, and disciplines, has been collected and is summarised, with a reflection on some trends. Finally, we present some implications for policy. A roadmap is suggested to ensure that the teaching of electrochemical fundamentals is addressed in the curriculum at an appropriate level to underpin the many technically relevant applications of electrochemistry that graduates will encounter in their further education or employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blue mussels Mytilus have returned to the high Arctic region of Svalbard in the beginning of twenty-first century after being absent for almost a 1000 years. Not only M. edulis had arrived in Svalbard, but also a complex of sympatric species including M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, M. trossulus, and some of their hybrids, which may have a wide range of origins from both sides of the North Atlantic. Mussels were first found in the sublittoral at the entrance to Isfjorden, west coast of Spitsbergen island, and are spreading in other areas, and recently were also found in the intertidal zone. Here, we report viable larvae that were recovered from within the mantle cavity of mussels from the lower intertidal shore collected in late July 2019 and 2021 in Trygghamna, Isfjorden. The identity of larval and adult mussels was confirmed by sequencing of barcode region. Larvae ranged in size from 178 to 376 µm, from mussels 21 to 57 mm in shell length, and estimated to range over 3 to 12 years. It remains unclear whether the larval retention within the mantle cavity results from an intake of near shore concentrations and whether this may lead to larviphagy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change alters the global distribution of leishmaniasis vector sandfly species. However, the possible effect of altering environmental factors on sandfly species varies by species and area. The aim of this study was to project the future potential effect of climate change on the Western Asian occurrence of the sandfly vector species Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus sergenti and the parasites Leishmania major and Leishmania tropica for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 compared to their modelled climatic suitability patterns in the reference period 1970–2000. The model results suggest that by 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, in the coastal areas of the Levantine countries and the mid-elevation regions of Western Iran and Southeast Turkey, the climatic suitability of all the studied species is predicted to increase. In contrast, the model results suggest the decline of the populations of the studied vectors as well as the disappearance of the parasites in Iraq, North Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the inland regions of Western Asian countries. Considering the present-day population density patterns, it can be said that although in large regions of the region, the climatic suitability values are predicted to decrease, the populated Levantine regions seem to be at risk of climate change-facilitated increase in cutaneous leishmaniasis in the second half of the twenty-first century. The model results suggest that climate change will especially increase the climatic suitability of Leishmania tropica in the Levantine region in the late twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer skiing on glaciers is a leisure activity highly dependent on natural factors like weather and glacier conditions. While the literature agrees that climate change is shaping the fate of summer skiing, longer time series covering both the supply and demand side of glacier/summer skiing, and research that combines natural and non-natural factors affecting the summer ski market are missing. To close this research gap, we conducted a detailed supply-side analysis of nine Austrian glacier ski areas focusing on the number of operating days (in the summer half-year, as well as for meteorological and astronomical summer ski definitions), show how these numbers evolve over time, test how they correlate with meteorological and glaciological data using time-series regression models on a yearly and monthly basis, and highlight how managerial decisions come into play when trying to explain the summer ski supply's decline. Between 2002 and 2019, summer ski operating days in Austrian glacier ski areas declined by 48.3% in the summer half-year, 65.2% in the meteorological, and 62.3% in the astronomical summer parallel to rising mean temperatures and shrinking glaciers. This decrease is strongest in June to September and weakest in May and October but in two glacier ski areas, the operating days in the summer season remain constant or are even on the rise. This is in line with model results indicating that meteorological and glaciological data only explain parts of the variance of the decline trends. Operators' agency, strategies, and decisions play an important role underlining that global warming is not monocausally determining summer ski operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising air temperatures threaten the snow reliability of ski resorts. Most resorts rely on technical snowmaking to compensate lacking natural snow. But increased water consumption for snowmaking may cause conflicts with other sectors' water uses such as hydropower production or the hotel industry. We assessed the future snow reliability (likelihood of a continuous 100-day skiing season and of operable Christmas holidays) of the Swiss resort Andermatt-Sedrun-Disentis throughout the twenty-first century, where 65% of the area is currently equipped for snowmaking. Our projections are based on the most recent climate change scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018) and the model SkiSim 2.0 including a snowmaking module. Unabated greenhouse gas emissions (scenario RCP8.5) will cause a lack of natural snow at areas below 1800–2000 m asl by the mid-twenty-first century. Initially, this can be fully compensated by snowmaking, but by the end of the century, the results become more nuanced. While snowmaking can provide a continuous 100-day season throughout the twenty-first century, the economically important Christmas holidays are increasingly at risk under the high-emission scenario in the late twenty-first century. The overall high snow reliability of the resort comes at the cost of an increased water demand. The total water consumption of the resort will rise by 79% by the end of the century (2070–2099 compared to 1981–2010; scenario RCP8.5), implying that new water sources will have to be exploited. Future water management plans at the catchment level, embracing the stakeholders, could help to solve future claims for water in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of modern molecular methods and phylogenetic approaches saw an explosion in cyanobacterial taxonomy in the first two decades of the twenty-first century. The relative ease of description of new taxa and the pressure to publish a high number of scientific papers has created apparent confusion. The situation is particularly complicated for ecologically oriented limnological research and practical hydrobiologists especially have numerous criticisms of this trend. On closer observation, however, the situation is not as tragic as it first appears. More than a thousand new species have been discovered or renamed and only 18 percent are freshwater planktonic species, which garner the most interest in routine analyses. Most new taxa are described from terrestrial habitats. Despite the increase in studies from tropical areas, most of the new species are from the temperate zone, which probably does not account for the reality. Significant advances in modern taxonomy are visible mainly for the trichal types, but other groups such as the pleurocapsal species are considerably less studied. In this article I try to show that, despite all the difficulties and limitations, it is not necessary to consider these rapid changes as a complication in common cyanobacteriological research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fidelity of 47 CMIP6 climate models in simulating the monsoon (June to August) over Himalaya–Tibetan Highland (HTH) is examined for the historical period (1975-2014) and 8 best performing models have been identified. It is found that the multi-model mean of 47 CMIP6 models (MMM) still exhibits systematic cold and wet biases for Tas and precipitation, respectively during the historical period. On the contrary, the multi-model mean of 8 best models (MM8) could simulate the spatial distributions better than MMM by alleviating the wet biases (~2 mm day−1) over the southern and eastern HTH, whilst no significant improvement is noted in near surface temperature (Tas). The simulated decreasing (increasing) trends for Tas (precipitation) are found to be less satisfactory in both the MMMs. The MM8 also shows an improved annual cycle of Tas and precipitation over the HTH, accompanied by a better representation of mid-tropospheric temperatures and upper-level anticyclone. The MM8 was considered to perform the future projections, it is noted that the future projections show a widespread warming of 0.6–0.9°C decade−1 and an increased precipitation of 0.3–0.5 mm day−1decade−1 across the Himalayan foothills and southeastern parts of HTH by the end of the twenty-first century under the worst case scenario (SSP585). This insightful information would assist the policy and decision makers in making informed decisions and adaptation strategies against the far-reaching impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on historical and the SSP5-8.5 experiments from twenty Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models, the historical and projected relationships between the summer dominant modes of the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ, 20–55°N, 40–80°E) and the corresponding precipitation over Central Asia (CA) are investigated. The historical experiment shows that almost all (19) CMIP6 models except for the EC-Earth3-Veg model can simulate the changes in summer dominant modes of the SWJ, and sixteen of them can reproduce the relationships between the summer dominant modes of the SWJ and precipitation over CA as observed. Changes in the dominant modes of the SWJ correspond to the formation of anomalous cyclones in different parts of CA, which play important roles in modulating the summer precipitation over CA, and only ten of the sixteen models can capture the above physical progress. The dominant modes of the SWJ in the ten selected models retain unchanged and they are still closely related to summer precipitation over CA in the SSP5-8.5 experiment in the second half of the twenty-first century. Nine (seven) of the ten models agree that when the SWJ moves southward (strengthens), the domain of 37–47°N, 60–85°E (47–55°N, 55–75°E) will receive more summer precipitation in the SSP5-8.5 experiment during 2050–2099. Large uncertainties exist in the projected change in the strength of the SWJ and summer precipitation over CA among the nine unselected models during 2050–2099. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upper-level and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid- and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the results of calculations with the CMIP6 ensemble of global climate models, quantitative estimates of changes in the snow cover extent (SCE) in Eurasia in the 21st century are obtained under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of anthropogenic impacts using the Bayesian approach. The contribution (weight) of the models to the overall ensemble estimates has been determined by the accuracy of reproduction of the long-term average, trend, and interannual variability of the SCE in Eurasia from satellite data. The largest intermodel variations in the estimates, increasing during the summer and fall months, are associated with the reproduction of the trend component and interannual variability (variance) of the SCE in Eurasia, as well as with equal-weighted averaging. It is shown that, when Bayesian weights are used, the uncertainty of snow cover area estimates can be halved compared to the ensemble average with model weights being equal. The ensemble estimates of the SCE obtained by using combined Bayesian weights exceed the corresponding estimates during equal-weighted averaging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the interannual variability of surface air temperature in the twenty-first century using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model data under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Relative to 1961−2014, the interannual variability of annual temperature is projected to increase by 6%, 6%, and 12% globally in the 2051–2100 period under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, with an average increase of 10–22% in low latitudes and decrease of 3–28% in high-latitude oceans. The spatial pattern of wintertime variability changes is mainly determined by variations in the meridional temperature gradient. Sea ice losses and variations in snow extent in the mid to high latitudes are both related with large variability decreases according to analysis of the underlying surface. In South America and South Africa, the variability enhancement is related to the adjustment of the wet–dry status, while that in South Asia and central Africa depends more on the positive longwave radiative effect due to the increase in clouds. In tropical oceans, the increases in sea surface temperature variabilities and air–sea interactions dominate the enhanced surface air temperature variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Serious games, board games, and well-designed commercial video games represent emerging technologies that have been utilized by instructors to help students develop systems thinking skills. In this paper, the author proposes an innovative pedagogical framework that can support educators using digital game-based learning in higher education. By following a series of steps and activities, university instructors can successfully integrate digital gameplay in their classrooms and align course content with gameplay objectives. Game-based environments for learning offer a glass box approach that can explain how and why these technologies can be suitable for teaching complex competencies like systems thinking skills in a variety of academic contexts. The glass box instructional approach can provide researchers with student data that can be used during gameplay to help students develop competencies and adapt instructional strategies that can tailor the game environment to improve student performance. Successfully implementing digital game-based learning in university classrooms requires a methodical instructional approach that can support both novice and expert technology using educators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought depends upon many factors such as lack of precipitation, sunshine duration, and altitude. In this study, future rainfall trend pattern was studied, and an attempt was made to quantify the amount of rainfall deficit to cause drought occurrence and corresponding required water for the recovery of future drought. The non-standardized anomaly index (AI) was used to quantify the water deficit for future drought event, which is based on CMIP 6 climatic model generated rainfall data under the four different shared socioeconomic pathways' (SSPs) scenarios (SSP 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5, SSP 3–7.0, and SSP 5–8.5) for the chosen study area (the upper Tapti River basin in central India). Our study found out that the future rainfall pattern would be an increasing trend for all the SSPs scenarios up to the end of the twenty-first century. Particularly, SSP 5–8.5 scenario projected increasing rainfall pattern and more number of drought events than other SSPs. In specific season, the future monsoon season showed more number of drought events. The water required for drought recovery was found increased from SSP 1–2.6 to SSP 5–8.5 scenario. The results presented in this study are helpful to adopt drought management activity in response to changing rainfall pattern under climate change aspect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A general increase in the surface temperature of the Black Sea has been confirmed based on an analysis of satellite data from 1982 to 2021 with a spatial resolution of about 0.05° × 0.05°. The annual mean temperature increase is about 0.6°C/10 years. The annual temperature increase due to a linear trend is maximum in May–June. During these months of hydrological spring, the rate of increase in sea surface temperature (SST) is approximately one and a half times greater than in October–November. During most of the year, the general warming of the surface water layer is not accompanied by a significant increase in the intramonthly SST variance. Such an increase is observed only in some months of transition seasons, especially during the period of hydrological spring, when the absolute value of extreme thermal anomalies and their area increase significantly. The maximum amplitudes of interannual SST variations are confined to the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Changes in the fields of the atmospheric pressure and wind have a significant impact on the spatiotemporal structure of SST. Long-term trends in the surface pressure over the Black Sea indicate an intensification of regional cyclonic activity in the atmosphere (especially pronounced since 2009), which leads to the increased generation of negative SST anomalies of significant amplitude. Such anomalies occur mainly in the warm half of the year (especially in May and October) due to the development of upwellings of wind origin of various types. In May and October, negative SST anomalies in the range of ‒(6–5)°С are characterized by the maximum areas. Warm anomalies are also most often recorded in May and (to a lesser extent) in October. They are generated by anomalous heat fluxes on the sea surface, including those in the shallow areas of the shelf, and spread to open areas of the water basin due to horizontal advection, predominantly of wind origin. The described patterns of spatiotemporal SST variability and their causes are illustrated by a comprehensive analysis of wind and SST fields of high spatial resolution during the development of extreme thermal anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—An analysis of changes in the role of mammals in the infection of humans with hydrophobia in Russia for the period 1534–2017 is presented. Human deaths when dealing with dogs have continually been recorded since the 16th century. The share of dogs in human hydrophobia infection reached 85% from the end of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century. In the 1960s and 1970s, it decreased to 30–35%, but in the early 21st century, it increased again to 43%. The role of cats in infecting humans has been reliably traced since the late 19th century, and it has increased from 2 to 18% over the last 130 years. The epidemic value of foxes is cyclical. In the late 18th century, fox rabies in Russia was not known. People died from hydrophobia after fox bites in the early 19th century, but since 1825 cases of human hydrophobia due to contacts with foxes were no more recorded. Foxes again started infecting people only from the 1940s. In some years from the 1970s to the 1990s, foxes were the source of hydrophobia in 50–52% cases. In the 21st century, the role of foxes in human infection has decreased to 16%, but the value of that predator in animal infection increased to almost 50%. The wolf has infected people throughout the historical record. Before World War II, the epidemic value of the wolf reached 19%, but since the second half of the 20th century and in the 21st century, the death of people caused by wolf bites has varied within 2–7% cases. The raccoon dog started infecting people after World War II (0.4%). Its epidemic role has slowly increased and reached 11% in the 21st century. The corsak, the badger, the marten, the ferret, and the Arctic Fox rarely infect people, but they have participated in the epidemic process for at least 50 years, while the Arctic Fox has for 100 years. Over the territory of Russia, only two cases of human death have been recorded from hydrophobia after a bat bite, one in 1985 and the other in 2008. Cattle have infected humans throughout the observable past five centuries, but not too often, 0.3–2% cases. Small livestock, horses, and pigs have been extremely rare as an epidemic danger for at least the last 130 years. In Russia, people have never been infected with rabies received from insectivores, while that obtained from rodents has been recorded only three times: two from gophers and one from a squirrel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cool-season (May to October) rainfall decline in southwestern Australia deepened during 2001–2020 to become 20.5% less than the 1901–1960 reference period average, with a complete absence of very wet years (i.e., rainfall > 90th percentile). CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model simulations suggest that approximately 43% of the observed multi-decadal decline was externally-forced. However, the observed 20-year rainfall anomaly in 2001–2020 is outside the range of both preindustrial control and historical simulations of almost all climate models used in this study. This, and the fact that the models generally appear to simulate realistic levels of decadal variability, suggests that 43% might be an underestimate. A large ensemble from one model exhibits drying similar to the observations in 10% of simulations and suggests that the external forcing contribution is indeed larger (66%). The majority of models project further drying over the twenty-first century, even under strong cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. Under the two warmest scenarios, over 70% of the late twenty-first century years are projected to be drier than the driest year simulated during the 1901–1960 period. Our results suggest that few, if any, very wet years will occur during 2023–2100, even if strong cuts to global emissions are made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents estimates of forest mortality from fires that occurred in the northern territories in the 21st century, based on the analysis of fire burning intensity obtained from MODIS instruments installed on satellites Terra and Aqua. A brief analysis of fire distribution and forest mortality resulting therefrom is also presented in the paper both by year and by different territories (countries). The analysis shows that from 2002 to 2021, 70 659 fires were registered in Zone 60 (the area north of 60° N) and 5997 fires were registered in Zone AC (the area north of the Arctic Circle). Moreover, 33 892 fires in Zone 60 were registered from 2002 to 2011 and 36 767 fires from 2012 to 2021; 2395 fires were registered in Zone AC from 2001 to 2011 and 3602 fires from 2012 to 2021. Between 2002 and 2021, 102 million ha of forest land were covered by fires in Zone 60 and 8 million ha in Zone AC. At the same time, more than 22 million ha of forests died in Zone 60 (they received the fifth grade of the average weighted category state in the final fire year), and over 2 million ha died in Zone AC. Over 2002–2011, 7 015 000 ha of forests died in Zone 60 (1.2 % of all forest vegetation in the zone; an average of 19.6% of the area affected by fire) and 15 372 000 ha of forests over 2012–2021 (2.6 and 23.3%, respectively); over 2002–2011, 641 thousand ha of forests died in Zone AC (2.8 and 23.7%, respectively) and 1 379 000 ha of forests over 2012–2021 (1.9 and 26.5%, respectively). The paper also presents information on forest death by territories (countries) in the analyzed zones. The presented data made it possible to draw the following preliminary conclusions: over recent decades, there have been no significant changes in the number of fires in Zone 60. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that, in 2019–2020, the number of fires in Zone AC increased drastically in Russia; in the second decade of the analyzed period, an increase in forest death from fires in the analyzed zones in Russia was observed; over the study period, no trends were observed in the ratio of the area of dead forests and total forest area in the analyzed countries; the average percentage of dead forests for the entire study period is comparable in Russia, the United States, and Canada, though it is significantly lower in Northern European countries; the same picture is observed in the ratio of dead forest area and fire affected area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scholarly literature on US–UK relations has been marked by recurrent debate over the health and utility of the special relationship, recently enlivened by the policy tensions and political turbulence of the Trump presidency. The literature has also seen a social and cultural 'turn', with a growing focus on the broader linkages between the two countries' societies and cultures. However, there has been limited analysis of public opinion in Britain in recent scholarly research. This article examines the 'image of America' in British public opinion in the twenty-first century, across recent Republican and Democratic presidencies. It uses data from the annual Pew Global Attitudes survey series and Transatlantic Trends survey series to undertake systematic analysis of these quantitative data sources. It examines the following areas: the performance and policies of presidents from Bush to Biden, the US and its people, the state of bilateral relations, and NATO. It examines aggregate-level opinion and also pays close attention to views across different societal groups, based on demographic characteristics, party support and left–right ideology. The paper makes a significant and distinctive contribution to scholarly research into US–UK relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2), we investigate the changes in the characteristics of the summer monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) over India in a twenty-first century climate change simulation corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario. A slight weakening in monsoon circulation and an increase in mean summer monsoon precipitation over India are simulated in a warmer climate, consistent with several previous studies. The weakening of the monsoon circulation is associated with a pair of anticyclonic anomalies straddling the equator in the low level, weakening the cross-equatorial monsoonal flow from the southern hemisphere. These low-level circulation anomalies appear to be robust features in the equatorial Indian Ocean under climate change. An increase in moisture flux is also simulated over the Indian subcontinent. However, we find no significant change in the number of LPS or their spatial distribution under the RCP8.5 scenario. This is attributed to a small but non-significant decrease in the low-level meridional cyclonic shear in zonal winds. An increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation over India in a warmer world is simulated and is likely associated with an increase in moisture content. Our study shows that the fractional contribution of LPS to mean and extreme precipitation over India in a warmer world is likely unchanged, but the frequency and intensity of extreme events are larger. Because of the diversity in the results from single model studies on LPS characteristics in a warmer world, a future study that uses CMIP6 multi-model data would be valuable to assess the robustness and the uncertainty in changes in LPS activities under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Max Czollek's book, "De-Integrate! A Jewish Survival Guide for the 21st Century," explores the experiences of Jews living in Germany after World War II. Czollek challenges the dominant German memory culture that excludes descendants of migrants and historical minorities, including Jews. He argues for a radical diversity and an inclusive society that accepts difference rather than assimilating everyone into one culture. The book provides new insights into the lives of Jews in Germany and their quest for empowerment in a polarized society. [Extracted from the article]

After the 1968 emigration, very few Jews remained in Poland, and even more miniscule was the number of "Jewish Jews." Since then the number has grown somewhat, and much of it is due to the process of de-assimilation; i.e., some people with Jewish ancestors raised in completely Polonized families began to recover, reclaim, and readapt their Jewish background. An analysis of this phenomenon is offered with a series of putative reasons for its occurrence. The individuals constituting the "products" of de-assimilation are the majority of Polish Jews today and form much of the current leadership. While individuals everywhere can strengthen their ties to the Jewish people and can experience teshuvah or another kind of "Judaization," the process of de-assimilation does not seem to be reducible to those moves. It begins with no Jewish identity, and is highly dependent on the attitudes and cultural trends in the majority society. It does not remove the de-assimilationists from the majority culture. The phenomenon is general and deserves to be studied as a sociological mechanism working in other cases of assimilation to a majority culture. In the Jewish case, it is especially dramatic. Probably the first example can be found in the evolution of the Marrano communities settled in Holland. The presence of de-assimilation seems to differentiate some European, first of all East European, communities from the globally dominant American and Israeli ones. Probably this rather new concept is needed to describe a significant part of the world of the Jews of twenty-first century Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Philosophical and technoculture studies surrounding the existential understanding of the human–technology–world experience have seen a slow but steady increase that makes a turn to material hermeneutics in the second decade of the twenty-first century (Ihde in Postphenomenology: essays in the postmodern context. Northwestern University Press, Evanston, 1993; Capurro in AI Soc 25(1):35–42, 2010; Romele in Digital hermeneutics: philosophical investigations in new media and technologies. Routledge, Abingdon, 2020; among others). This renewed focus makes sense because human–technology–world experiences need to be interpreted. And many of these are more complicated to study, precisely because technology is at the root of the experiences. One interesting subset of technologies is media technologies, also called digital media, which intertwines the device and the content to mediate together in the world (Irwin in Digital media: human-technology connection. Lexington Books, Lanham, 2016). Visual media technologies and media content, together, through what is called moving image technologies, create virtual role-playing, virtual and augmented reality, video games, and social media focused worlds that have become central experiences in contemporary culture. Just as image-based scientific instruments read the world in different ways, so to do these visual mediated experiences. How might this comingled "reading" of technology explain the digital film language and experience? I contend that understanding the existential "early" film experience helps understand the new age of cinema, with implications for digital media, digital representation of the visual, and technoscience and technoculture studies. The material hermeneutics perspective called postphenomenology is one way to study these visually focused human–technology–world perceptual and interpretive experiences. Don Ihde's methodological framework (1990, 1993, 1996, 2002, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2019) is both an idea from technoscience studies and a set of nuanced vocabulary that helps to explore and reveal variations, patterns, and trajectories of the whole-body experience of technology. This use case will first explore traditional cinema and then the "new age" term "moving image", to learn more about this complicated and radically transforming technological experience. Work by Don Ihde and Vivian Sobchack is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international debate of the shifting bases of philanthropy suggested by modernization theory has been ongoing since the beginning of the twenty-first century, yet empirical evidence remains lacking from the perspective of philanthropic motivation. The society and philanthropy of China have undergone tremendous transformation since the launch of Reform and Opening Up in 1978, providing an ideal context for testing the assumption of the shifting bases of philanthropy. Through investigating the motivation structure of collectivism and individualism behind individual giving in contemporary China, this study rejects the assumption drawing on the data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS). This study helps deepen the understanding of culture's roles during modernization. It also has important implications for how charitable giving can be effectively promoted both inside and outside of the context of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Padlocks are often recovered archaeologically from enslaved African contexts in the Western Hemisphere, and prior research has suggested mundane interpretations for these utilitarian objects. However, padlocks are routinely used in many religiosities and belief systems throughout the African continent as supernatural objects, and a key metaphor in "locking down" evil, bodily functions, or individuals' lives. An exploration of padlocks as potential supernatural objects is conducted within enslaved plantation contexts in the American South and Mid Atlantic, and compared to key African cultures of the eighteenth through the twenty-first centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines a critical issue in digital literacy assessment design when technological changes are happening with escalating speed in our society. There have been many assessment studies of digital literacy (DL) for diverse purposes and across different geographic and socioeconomic (geo-socioeconomic) contexts. While the assessment framework, instrument design, and technology platforms used for conducting these assessments differ, what remains common is the lack of explicit discussion about the possible role of the technology used and item design in affecting the measure DL. There is an apparent, implicit assumption that DL assessment is similar to the assessment of other academic achievements such as reading literacy and numeracy, which should ideally be measured independent of the specific technologies or task contexts adopted in the assessment. Recent evidence from a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) commissioned study on a Digital Literacy Global Framework (DLGF) shows that the DL needed to accomplish the same task is heavily dependent on the devices and tools used under different the geo-socioeconomic contexts (Law et al. in A global framework of reference on digital literacy skills for indicator 4.4.2, 2018). Drawing on the DLGF findings and a critical examination of the assessment designs in large-scale international assessment tests, this paper puts forward a product-lifecycle and experience dependence (PLED) perspective to guide the design and interpretation of DL assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study has been made of changes in some characteristics of daily precipitation in Russia for the winter and summer seasons in the 20th and 21st centuries using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models. In the modern period, model data are compared with data from meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis. For winter and summer, changes in mean seasonal precipitation, the number of days with precipitation, and the frequency of extreme precipitation are analyzed. For the modern period 1991–2020, according to empirical data, in winter on the territory of Russia, a significant increase in seasonal precipitation amounts and the frequency of days with extreme precipitation on the Far East coast and in the central part of European Russia (ER) are detected. A decrease in the frequency of days with precipitation at most meteorological stations in Russia by 4–6 days/10 years is also noted. In summer, an increase in precipitation amounts and the frequency of days with precipitation is found in Western Siberia and on the coasts of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean. A decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation is obtained for southern ER and the south of Eastern Siberia. Climate models, on average for the ensemble, show an increase in the relative amounts of precipitation and the extreme precipitation frequency over most of the Russia territory in winter, and these trends may intensify in the coming decades. In summer, on the contrary, for southern ER, as a whole, there is a slight decrease in the seasonal precipitation totals and the number of days with precipitation. However, strong intermodel differences, especially in the summer season, do not allow us to draw unambiguous conclusions about changes in precipitation characteristics in Russia in the next 30 years. By the end of the 21st century, changes will become more pronounced. For example, in ER and northern Siberia, a noticeable increase in winter precipitation amounts and the frequency of extreme precipitation may occur. By the end of the 21st century, a slight decrease in the precipitation totals and the number of days with precipitation is possible in summer in ER. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Possibilities of using the basic technology of probabilistic scenario forecasting of the regional climate to obtain detailed estimates of future changes in applied indicators of the thermal regime in the territory of federal districts and individual subjects of the Russian Federation are considered. Probabilistic ensemble estimates of future changes are presented for climatic indicators such as seasonal extremes of air temperature for a given averaging period, the sum of active temperatures, energy consumption indices for cold and warm seasons, and other characteristics of intra-annual periods with air temperatures above/below threshold values. The changes in the considered parameters of the thermal regime have been analyzed. It is shown that the main features of changes expected by the middle of the 21st century detected by the results of modeling over most of the territory of Russia are well manifested based on the observational data in the interval 1961–2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The delivery of dermatology services has undergone dramatic changes in the past century. The goals and timelines of care have evolved as have the diagnostic and therapeutic tools, resulting in the need to capture and manage information differently, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The predominant and basic office-based ambulatory care model has remained relatively unchanged. Patients and providers interact with minimal pre-visit preparation using the "agenda-less" meeting model. This care model is ill-suited to manage the vastly expanded data capture and processing requirement of twenty-first century dermatology. We have developed novel tools to automate pre-visit data collection which allows for more robust information capture which moves data capture outside of the time-constrained clinic visit. These tools capture structured data, integrate into electronic health records, and create summary reports in real time to assist decision-making. These tools, if scaled, can facilitate the information management needs of dermatology care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate modeling of climate change at local scales is critical for climate applications. This study proposes a regional downscaling model (stacking-MME) based on the fusion of multiple machine learning models (stacking). The performance of the model was evaluated for simulating precipitation, solar radiation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature and predicted three future possible changes in climate variables over time (near-term (2031–2040), medium-term (2051–2060), and long-term (2081–2090)). After determining the optimal GCM(Global climate model) based on rating metric calculations, the parametric and structural uncertainties in the GCM simulation of CMIP6 (Sixth International Coupling Model Comparison Project) were reduced. Furthermore, the performance of MME (multimodel ensembles) was enhanced by integrating three machine learning algorithms. The results show that among the nine machine learning models, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Gradient Boosting Regressor and Random Forest have the best performances. These three models are also considered for the development of stacking model fusion. The Stacking-MME model can reliably reduce the systematic error of GCMs and has the potential to better predict climate. In the SSP245 and SSP585 situations, precipitation will increase by 23.79% and 29.26% at the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. Maximum and minimum temperatures will increase by 1.48 and 2.89 °C and 1.22 and 2.36 °C, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visual odometry and visual simultaneous localization and mapping aid in tracking the position of a camera and mapping the surroundings using images. It is an important part of robotic perception. Tracking and mapping using a monocular camera is cost-effective, requires less calibration effort, and is easy to deploy across a wide range of applications. This paper provides an extensive review of the developments for the first two decades of the twenty-first century. Astounding results from early methods based on filtering have intrigued the community to extend these algorithms using other forms of techniques like bundle adjustment and deep learning. This article starts by introducing the basic sensor systems and analyzing the evolution of monocular tracking and mapping algorithms through bibliometric data. Then, it covers the overview of filtering and bundle adjustment methods, followed by recent advancements in methods using deep learning with the mathematical constraints applied on the networks. Finally, the popular benchmarks available for developing and evaluating these algorithms are presented along with a comparative study on a different class of algorithms. It is anticipated that this article will serve as the latest introductory tool and further ignite the interest of the community to solve current and future impediments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global temperature rise is accompanied by an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, which can lead to significant disturbances in plant metabolic processes and the functioning of plant communities. Depending on the type of vegetation and climatic conditions, the extent and nature of this impact can vary significantly. Therefore, the aim of this work is to identify areas with different types of plant communities that have been most affected by extreme temperatures and precipitation in recent decades. To identify regions with temperature and precipitation extremes, we estimate the frequency at which a given threshold is exceeded (less than 5% quantile or greater than 95% quantile) for selected theoretical probability density functions for the air temperature and precipitation series. The number of cases in which the extreme threshold is exceeded is calculated for the whole globe, and their spatial and temporal variability in different seasons of the year and in the first decades of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century is analyzed. Regions with different types of plant communities with the most pronounced amplification of extreme temperature and precipitation regimes under changing climate conditions are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change have posed several threats and far more than the effects on Pakistan as the temperature is constantly rising and this could lead to an increase in the severity of extreme events. This study analyzed the climate change's impact on climatic regions that are established by using the data of precipitation and temperature for 55 meteorological stations in Pakistan based on Reconnaissance Drought Index. For the construction of homogeneous climatic regions (HCRs), two statistical methods were integrated. First, cluster analysis was employed to identify climatic regions (CRs) using site characteristics of the stations, which gave five climatic regions (CRs). Second, heterogeneity measure and discordancy measure were used based on L-moment approach and regional adjustments to satisfy the homogeneity of HCRs. These HCRs were evaluated on REMO model (a regional climate model), for the baseline period of 1976–2005. To assess the impacts of climate change, HCRs were constructed, and climate projections were developed under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for twenty first century. The results of HCRs show that some stations interchanged with other groups under both future scenarios due to changes in temperature and precipitation. It is observed that the maximum and minimum temperature will highly increase in the future and major increase in temperature is projected in 2071–2100 with RCP 4.5 and 8.5. This study will assist in the short and long-term planning of climate change, irrigation, water management, hydropower etc. in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synoptic anticyclones are a common feature of subtropical and midlatitude climate and are associated with descending air and clear conditions, while associated anticyclonic circulation anomalies can contribute to temperature extremes. When anticyclones are tracked in both the ERA5 reanalysis and 10 global climate models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using a common grid, the CMIP5 models consistently underestimate the observed frequency of anticyclones in the southern hemisphere, while overestimating anticyclone frequencies in the northern hemisphere. Under a high emissions scenario, the overall frequency of anticyclones is projected to decline over the twenty-first century. Declines are largest in the southern hemisphere subtropics, where projected changes in anticyclone frequency can be linked to the projected poleward shift in the Southern Annular Mode. Stronger and more robust declines are projected for the subset of quasi-stationary anticyclones that move less than 4° over 24 h. Using the Australian region as a case study, regionally downscaled models show very similar projected changes to the driving CMIP5 models, adding little additional value for understanding projected changes in anticyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulating the features of the African Easterly Waves (AEWs), such as their westward propagation off the east Atlantic coast, is challenging for coarse-resolution climate models. In this study, we use High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) to simulate AEWs and analyze their future projections by the end of the twenty first century. The simulations are performed globally at a horizontal resolution of ∼ 25 km. The model uses shallow convective parameterization for moist convection and stratiform cloudiness. Future projections are conducted using representative concentration pathway 8.5. The AEWs are separated with respect to their periods as 3–5- and 6–9-day period AEWs, and bandpass filtering is used to filter the waves from the mean flow. HiRAM simulates structure and propagation of the waves well; however, it tends to overestimate the associated precipitation. In the future, the AEW precipitation and intensity of the circulation will considerably increase. The northward extent of the AEW track also shows a significant increase in the future. Enhanced baroclinic overturning and eddy available potential energy generated due to diabatic heating is also observed in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The review summarizes the results and prospects of studying the reactions of acetylene with secondary alkyl ketoximes containing only one C–H bond at the α-position with respect to the oxime group in superbasic medium. The selective formation of key intermediate products in the pyrrole synthesis (3H-pyrroles and 5-hydroxypyrrolines), their reactivity, and unique cascade assemblies of unexpected compounds are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]