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An unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly event, namely, the Blob, occurred in the northeast Pacific during the winter (October–January) of 2013/2014, causing substantial economic and ecological impacts. Here, we explore the driving forces of the Blob from both atmospheric and oceanic perspectives and show that the Blob primarily resulted from weak wintertime cooling due to the reduced air-sea heat flux transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere and the reduced horizontal advection of cold water in the upper ocean. Both mechanisms were attributed to an anomalous high-pressure system over the study region. Specifically, the anomalous air-sea heat flux, which was dominated by turbulent heat flux anomalies, was mainly induced by the increased air temperature (i.e., with a contribution of approximately 70%) and the weakened wind speed associated with the high-pressure system. The reduced horizontal heat advection was mainly due to the weakened winds acting on the ocean temperature meridional gradient. Using a regional ocean numerical model with different experimental runs, we evaluated the contributions of air temperature and wind drivers to the Blob at both the surface and subsurface of the ocean. The Blob was absent when the model was forced by climatology-air-temperature. Both the SST and integrated ocean heat content (OHC, 0–150 m) decreased, and the mixed layer depth (MLD) was deeper than that in the control run forced by real atmospheric conditions. In the climatology-winds experiment, obvious warm anomalies still existed, which were similar to but weaker than the control run. The SST (OHC) and MLD values in the climatology-winds run were between those of the climatology-air-temperature run and the control run. Compared to former studies that attribute the formation of the Blob to an anomalous air-sea heat flux and horizontal advection mainly induced by reduced winds, our study demonstrates that anomalous warm air temperatures played a more important role in its formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The late spring rainfall may account for 15% of the annual total rainfall, which is crucial to early planting in southeastern China. A better understanding of the precipitation variations in the late spring and its predictability not only greatly increase our knowledge of related mechanisms, but it also benefits society and the economy. Four models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) were selected to study their abilities to forecast the late spring rainfall over southeastern China and the major sources of heavy rainfall from the perspective of the sea surface temperature (SST) field. We found that the models have better abilities to forecast the heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region (MLYZR) with only a 1-month lead time, but they failed for a 3-month lead time since the occurrence of the heavy rainfall was inconsistent with the observations. The observations indicate that the warm SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean are vital to the simultaneously heavy rainfall in the MLYZR in May, but an El Niño event is not a necessary condition for determining the heavy rainfall over the MLYZR. The heavy rainfall over the MLYZR in May is always accompanied by warming of the northeastern Indian Ocean and of the northeastern South China Sea (NSCS) from April to May in the models and observations, respectively. In the models, El Niño events may promote the warming processes over the northeastern Indian Ocean, which leads to heavy rainfall in the MLYZR. However, in the real world, El Niño events are not the main reason for the warming of the NSCS, and further research on the causes of this warming is still needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite remote sensing and numerical models are widely used to estimate large-scale variations in ocean carbon export, but the relationship between export efficiency (e-ratio) of sinking organic carbon out of the surface ocean and its drivers remains poorly understood, especially in the Southern Ocean. Here, we assess the effects of temperature and primary productivity on e-ratio by combining particulate organic carbon export flux from in situ measurements during 1997–2013, environmental parameters from satellite products, and outputs from ocean biogeochemical models in the Southern Ocean. Results show that "High Productivity Low E-ratio" (HPLE) is a common phenomenon in the Subantarctic Zone and the Polar Frontal Zone, but not the Antarctic Zone. The e-ratio shows little dependence on temperature below 6 °C. Our results support the hypothesis that the HPLE phenomenon is due to the large contribution of non-sinking organic carbon. Both temperature and ballast minerals play less important roles in controlling e-ratio than ecosystem structure at low temperatures. These findings suggest that non-sinking organic carbon, ecosystem structure, and region-specific parameterizations of e-ratio are key factors to quantify the carbon export in the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]