1. A combined score for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula based on inflammatory parameters and drainage fluid culture results on postoperative day 3.
- Author
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Suto H, Matsukawa H, Ando Y, Oshima M, Fuke T, Norikane T, Sanomura T, Kamada H, Kobara H, Masaki T, Kumamoto K, and Okano K
- Subjects
- Humans, Female, Male, Retrospective Studies, Middle Aged, Aged, Risk Factors, Amylases analysis, Amylases metabolism, Predictive Value of Tests, Adult, Pancreatic Fistula etiology, Pancreatic Fistula epidemiology, Pancreatic Fistula diagnosis, Drainage, Postoperative Complications etiology, Postoperative Complications diagnosis, Postoperative Complications epidemiology, Pancreaticoduodenectomy adverse effects, Pancreatectomy adverse effects
- Abstract
Background: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreatic resection can lead to severe postoperative complications. POPF is defined based on postoperative day (POD) 3 drainage fluid amylase level. POPF correlates with inflammatory parameters as well as drainage fluid bacterial infection. However, a standardized model based on these factors for predicting CR-POPF remains elusive. We aimed to identify inflammatory parameter- and drainage fluid culture-related risk factors for CR-POPF on POD 3 after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) and distal pancreatectomy (DP)., Methods: Data from 351 patients who underwent PD or DP between 2013 and 2022 at a single institution were retrospectively analyzed. Risk factors for CR-POPF were investigated using multivariate analyses, and a prediction model combining the risk factors for CR-POPF was developed., Results: Of the 351 patients, 254 and 97 underwent PD and DP, respectively. Multivariate analyses revealed that drainage fluid amylase level ≥722 IU/L, culture positivity, as well as neutrophil count ≥5473/mm
3 on POD 3 were independent risk factors for CR-POPF in PD group. Similarly, drainage fluid, amylase level ≥500 IU/L, and culture positivity on POD 3 as well as pancreatic thickness ≥11.1 mm were independent risk factors in the DP group. The model for predicting CR-POPF achieved the maximum overall accuracy rate when the number of risk factors was ≥2 in both the PD and DP groups., Conclusions: Inflammatory parameters on POD 3 significantly influence the risk of CR-POPF onset after pancreatectomy. The combined models based on these values can accurately predict the risk of CR-POPF after pancreatectomy., (© 2024 International Society of Surgery/Société Internationale de Chirurgie (ISS/SIC).)- Published
- 2024
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