1. Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis scores as COVID-19 outcome predictors: a machine-learning application.
- Author
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Zoncapè M, Carlin M, Bicego M, Simonetti A, Ceruti V, Mantovani A, Inglese F, Zamboni G, Sartorio A, Minuz P, Romano S, Crisafulli E, Sacerdoti D, Fava C, and Dalbeni A
- Subjects
- Humans, Hospital Mortality, SARS-CoV-2, Machine Learning, Liver Cirrhosis, COVID-19 complications, Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
- Abstract
Patients with COVID-19 and metabolic-dysfunction associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) appear to be at higher risk for severe manifestations, especially in the youngest decades. Our aim was to examine whether patients with MAFLD and/or with increased liver fibrosis scores (FIB-4) are at risk for severe COVID-19 illness, using a machine learning (ML) model. Six hundred and seventy two patients were enrolled for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia between February 2020 and May 2021. Steatosis was detected by ultrasound or computed tomography (CT). ML model valuated the risks of both in-hospital death and prolonged hospitalizations (> 28 days), considering MAFLD, blood hepatic profile (HP), and FIB-4 score. 49.6% had MAFLD. The accuracy in predicting in-hospital death was 0.709 for the HP alone and 0.721 for HP + FIB-4; in the 55-75 age subgroup, 0.842/0.855; in the MAFLD subgroup, 0.739/ 0.772; in the MAFLD 55-75 years, 0.825/0.833. Similar results were obtained when considering the accuracy in predicting prolonged hospitalization. In our cohort of COVID-19 patients, the presence of a worse HP and a higher FIB-4 correlated with a higher risk of death and prolonged hospitalization, regardless of the presence of MAFLD. These findings could improve the clinical risk stratification of patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia., (© 2023. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2023
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