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Key Message: The grain traits of Yamadanishiki, an excellent sake-brewing rice cultivar in Japan, are governed by multiple QTLs, namely, a total of 42 QTLs including six major QTLs. Japanese rice wine (sake) is produced using brewing rice (Oryza sativa L.) that carries traits desirable for sake-brewing, such as a larger grain size and higher white-core expression rate (WCE) compared to cooking rice cultivars. However, the genetic basis for these traits in brewing rice cultivars is still unclear. We performed analyses of quantitative trait locus (QTL) of grain and days to heading over 3 years on populations derived from crosses between Koshihikari, a cooking rice, and Yamadanishiki, an excellent sake-brewing rice. A total of 42 QTLs were detected for the grain traits, and the Yamadanishiki alleles at 16 QTLs contributed to larger grain size. Two major QTLs essential for regulating both 100-grain weight (GWt) and grain width (GWh) were harbored in the same regions on chromosomes 5 and 10. An interaction was noted between the environment and the QTL associated with WCE on chromosome 6, which was detected in two of 3 years. In addition, two QTLs for WCE on chromosomes 3 and 10 overlapped with the QTLs for GWt and GWh, suggesting that QTLs associated with grain size also play an important role in the formation of white-core. Despite differences in the rate of grain growth in both Koshihikari and Yamadanishiki across 2 years, the WCE in Yamadanishiki remained consistent, thus demonstrating that the formation of white-core does not depend on grain filling speed. These data can be informative for programs involved in breeding better cooking and brewing rice cultivars.

Key Message: It is suggested that accuracy in predicting plant phenotypes can be improved by integrating genomic prediction with crop modelling in a single hierarchical model. Accurate prediction of phenotypes is important for plant breeding and management. Although genomic prediction/selection aims to predict phenotypes on the basis of whole-genome marker information, it is often difficult to predict phenotypes of complex traits in diverse environments, because plant phenotypes are often influenced by genotype-environment interaction. A possible remedy is to integrate genomic prediction with crop/ecophysiological modelling, which enables us to predict plant phenotypes using environmental and management information. To this end, in the present study, we developed a novel method for integrating genomic prediction with phenological modelling of Asian rice (Oryza sativa, L.), allowing the heading date of untested genotypes in untested environments to be predicted. The method simultaneously infers the phenological model parameters and whole-genome marker effects on the parameters in a Bayesian framework. By cultivating backcross inbred lines of Koshihikari × Kasalath in nine environments, we evaluated the potential of the proposed method in comparison with conventional genomic prediction, phenological modelling, and two-step methods that applied genomic prediction to phenological model parameters inferred from Nelder-Mead or Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. In predicting heading dates of untested lines in untested environments, the proposed and two-step methods tended to provide more accurate predictions than the conventional genomic prediction methods, particularly in environments where phenotypes from environments similar to the target environment were unavailable for training genomic prediction. The proposed method showed greater accuracy in prediction than the two-step methods in all cross-validation schemes tested, suggesting the potential of the integrated approach in the prediction of phenotypes of plants.

Key Message: Our simulation results clarify the areas of applicability of nine prediction methods and suggest the factors that affect their accuracy at predicting empirical traits. Whole-genome prediction is used to predict genetic value from genome-wide markers. The choice of method is important for successful prediction. We compared nine methods using empirical data for eight phenological and morphological traits of Asian rice cultivars (Oryza sativa L.) and data simulated from real marker genotype data. The methods were genomic BLUP (GBLUP), reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regression (RKHS), Lasso, elastic net, random forest (RForest), Bayesian lasso (Blasso), extended Bayesian lasso (EBlasso), weighted Bayesian shrinkage regression (wBSR), and the average of all methods (Ave). The objectives were to evaluate the predictive ability of these methods in a cultivar population, to characterize them by exploring the area of applicability of each method using simulation, and to investigate the causes of their different accuracies for empirical traits. GBLUP was the most accurate for one trait, RKHS and Ave for two, and RForest for three traits. In the simulation, Blasso, EBlasso, and Ave showed stable performance across the simulated scenarios, whereas the other methods, except wBSR, had specific areas of applicability; wBSR performed poorly in most scenarios. For each method, the accuracy ranking for the empirical traits was largely consistent with that in one of the simulated scenarios, suggesting that the simulation conditions reflected the factors that affected the method accuracy for the empirical results. This study will be useful for genomic prediction not only in Asian rice, but also in populations from other crops with relatively small training sets and strong linkage disequilibrium structures.