Search

This study develops a dynamic model of climate-related disaster impacts, considering multidimensional household heterogeneity, for analyzing changes in growth and inequality in low-income countries. Focusing on human capital development, the study demonstrates the multiple impacts of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies on human capital investment, including the effect of schooling opportunities for households constrained by the subsistence consumption constraint. Through numerical simulations performed for two economies that differ in terms of human capital, modeled after Madagascar and Fiji, it is illustrated that the possibilities of involuntary unemployment and the work-learning choice drive the diversity in macroeconomic impacts of a disaster. In an economy characterized by low levels of human capital, a disaster could cause an increase in labor supply in the immediate aftermath, but interrupt human capital formation, impeding long-term growth and human capital formation. Such a result contradicts prevailing intuition by demonstrating that a disaster occurring in an economy under recession may not result in a large adverse GDP impact in the short run but may negatively impact growth in the long run. On such a path, a policy of development in DRR infrastructure with appropriate taxation could reduce human-capital gaps in the long run by supporting continued post-disaster human-capital-investment opportunities for the poor.

Recent global assessments dealing with extreme event risks linked to geophysical and hydrometeorological variability have emphasized the imperative of disaster risk management as a core element in the public sector and business investment strategies. While a disaster is by definition a devastating shock to any risk bearer or affected system, it can also represent an opportunity in terms of a window for “Building Back Better” (BBB) and thus reducing risk in the longer term. Such strategies are associated with many constraints, of which lack of finance ranks high. This chapter presents a methodology as well as monetary estimates of the costs and benefits of such an approach from a global perspective. The specific question pursued is to examine how governments are fiscally prepared to build back better and provide adequate ex-post support to private sector losses. This is based on a fiscal stress testing methodology, which is extended for a BBB policy and compared to a policy strategy of rebuilding the status quo. The approach computes the return period of fiscal gaps, i.e., insufficient resources to recover from a disaster event and determines annual funding requirements needed for capitalizing a multi-hazard global fund which would absorb these gaps, either for all return periods or certain risk layers. It is found that building back better could considerably reduce future disaster risk, especially for the most at-risk countries. Beyond the quantification, the methodological approach provides a stepping stone for systematic assessments of building back better strategies for reducing long-term risk, which is a precondition for the achievement of many sustainable development goals and is part of two of the four pillars of the Sendai Framework for Risk Reduction.

Poor communities in high risk areas are disproportionately affected by disasters compared to their wealthy counterparts; yet, there are few analyses to guide public decisions on pro-poor investments in disaster risk reduction. This paper illustrates an application of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) for assessing investments in structural flood proofing of low-income, high-risk houses. The analysis takes account of climate change, which is increasingly viewed as an important consideration for assessing long-term investments. Specifically, the study focuses on the Rohini river basin of India and evaluates options for constructing non-permanent and permanent residential structures on a raised plinth to protect them against flooding. The estimates show a positive benefit-cost ratio for building new houses on a raised plinth, while the ratio is less than one for demolishing existing houses to rebuild on a raised plinth. Climate change is found to significantly affect the BCA results. From a policy perspective, the analysis demonstrates the potential economic returns of raised plinths for ‘building back better’ after disasters, or as a part of good housing design practice.

While ageing-related costs are perceived as the major drivers of fiscal pressure in the EU, concerns over climate-related public expenditures have received comparatively little attention in securing the EU’s long-term fiscal sustainability. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios as bridging concept for linking the assessment of public cost of demography- and climate-related expenditures, this study proposes a climate risk mainstreaming methodology. We apply a stochastic debt model and assess the potential flood risk in Austria to the public debt and the national disaster fund. Our results indicate that public debt under no fiscal consolidation is estimated to increase from the current level of 84.5% relative to GDP in 2015 to 92.1% in 2030, with macroeconomic variability adding further risk to the country’s baseline public debt trajectory. The study finds that the estimated public contingent liability due to expected flood risk is small relative to the size of economy. The existing earmarked disaster risk reduction (DRR) funding will likely reduce the risk of frequent-and-low impact floods, yet the current budgetary arrangement may be insufficient to deal with rising risk of extreme floods in the future. This prompts the need for further discussions regarding potential reforms of the disaster fund. As many EU member states are in the early stages of designing climate change policy strategies, the proposed method can support the mainstreaming of climate-related concerns into longer-term fiscal and budgetary planning.

Games can provide an effective and replicable space in which stakeholders learn skills necessary for deliberative and pluralist policymaking. These skills are especially important for “nexus” policy issues that are typically characterised by multiple, competing problem frames involving overlapping networks of stakeholders. In this position paper, we describe three serious games that serve as a space for players (stakeholders) and researchers to jointly explore alternative solutions to complex resource management issues: the Water-Food-Energy Nexus Game (Nexus Game); the Narubu Game of Many Voices (Narubu Game); and the Forest Governance Game (Forest Game). The games contain instructive and reflexive mechanisms that prompt players to self-discover common challenges associated with complex nexus issues, including conflicting institutional mandates, social dilemmas, contending worldviews, and plural interpretations of science.

Objectives: This study was performed to determine whether multiparous pregnant women are prone to influenza. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted at 19 centres located throughout Japan, targeting all 6694 postpartum women within 7 days after birth before leaving the hospital. All women gave birth during the study period between March 1, 2015, and July 31, 2015. Data regarding vaccination and influenza infection in or after October 2014, age, previous experience of childbirth, and number and ages of cohabitants were collected. Results: Seventy-eight percent (n = 5,197) of women given questionnaires responded. Of these, 2,661 (51%) and 364 (7.0%) women reported having been vaccinated and having contracted influenza, respectively. Multiparous women had a higher risk of influenza regardless of vaccination status (8.9% [121/1,362] vs. 5.7% [74/1,299], relative risk [95% confidence interval], 1.80 [1.36 to 2.38] for vaccinated and 9.3% [112/1,198] vs. 4.3% [57/1,328], 2.18 [1.60 to 2.97] for unvaccinated women) compared to primiparous women. The risk of influenza increased with increasing number of cohabitants: 4.8% (100/2,089), 7.5%, (121/1,618), 9.0%, (71/785), and 10.4% (58/557) for women with 1, 2, 3, and ≥ 4 cohabitants, respectively. Conclusions: Family size is a risk factor for influenza infection in pregnancy.

Objectives: This study was performed to determine whether multiparous pregnant women are prone to influenza. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted at 19 centres located throughout Japan, targeting all 6694 postpartum women within 7 days after birth before leaving the hospital. All women gave birth during the study period between March 1, 2015, and July 31, 2015. Data regarding vaccination and influenza infection in or after October 2014, age, previous experience of childbirth, and number and ages of cohabitants were collected. Results: Seventy-eight percent (n = 5,197) of women given questionnaires responded. Of these, 2,661 (51%) and 364 (7.0%) women reported having been vaccinated and having contracted influenza, respectively. Multiparous women had a higher risk of influenza regardless of vaccination status (8.9% [121/1,362] vs. 5.7% [74/1,299], relative risk [95% confidence interval], 1.80 [1.36 to 2.38] for vaccinated and 9.3% [112/1,198] vs. 4.3% [57/1,328], 2.18 [1.60 to 2.97] for unvaccinated women) compared to primiparous women. The risk of influenza increased with increasing number of cohabitants: 4.8% (100/2,089), 7.5%, (121/1,618), 9.0%, (71/785), and 10.4% (58/557) for women with 1, 2, 3, and ≥ 4 cohabitants, respectively. Conclusions: Family size is a risk factor for influenza infection in pregnancy.

Floods affect more people globally than any other type of natural hazard. Great potential exists for new technologies to support flood disaster risk reduction. In addition to existing expert-based data collection and analysis, direct input from communities and citizens across the globe may also be used to monitor, validate, and reduce flood risk. New technologies have already been proven to effectively aid in humanitarian response and recovery. However, while ex-ante technologies are increasingly utilized to collect information on exposure, efforts directed towards assessing and monitoring hazards and vulnerability remain limited. Hazard model validation and social vulnerability assessment deserve particular attention. New technologies offer great potential for engaging people and facilitating the coproduction of knowledge.

Iterative risk management and risk-sensitive public investment planning are increasingly seen as essential elements of natural disaster resilience. This article assesses the disaster risk facing the hazard-prone Southeast Asian country of Cambodia and discusses its fiscal preparedness and need for proactive disaster risk management. The study provides a bottom-up assessment of flood and cyclone risks to public and private buildings including educational structures, health facilities, and housing and estimates the total direct economic damage to range from approximately USD 304 million for a 5-year return period event to USD 2.26 billion for 1000-year return period event. These estimates were further analyzed using the fiscal risk due to disasters, which indicates that Cambodia will likely face a resource gap whenever a hazard as large as that of a 28-year return period event strikes. Given the frequent occurrence of disasters and rapid accumulation of capital assets taking place, proactive risk reduction is highly advisable. But interviews with national policymakers also revealed that there are a number of barriers to effective risk reduction and management in Cambodia. The general lack of awareness regarding risk-based concepts and the limited availability of local risk information necessitate a continued and sustained effort to build iterative risk management in Cambodia.