Search

Recent earthquakes involving multiple fault ruptures highlight the need to evaluate complex coastal deformation mechanisms, which are important for understanding plate boundary kinematics and seismic and tsunami hazards. We compare ages and uplift of the youngest Holocene marine terraces at Puatai Beach and Pakarae River mouth (∼10 km apart) in the northern Hikurangi subduction margin to examine whether uplift is the result of subduction earthquakes or upper-plate fault earthquakes. From stepped platform-cliff morphology, we infer uplift during 2–3 earthquakes and calculate an average uplift-per-event of 2.9±0.5 m at Puatai Beach and 2.0±0.5 m at Pakarae River mouth. Radiocarbon ages from the youngest beach deposit shells on each terrace and a tephra coverbed on one terrace constrain the timing of earthquakes to 1770–1710, 1100–910, and 420–250 cal. B.P. at Puatai Beach, and 1490–1290 and 660–530 cal. B.P. at Pakarae River mouth. The ages differ at each site indicating uplift is neither the result of subduction earthquakes nor single upper-plate fault earthquakes. A reinterpretation of new and existing bathymetry and seismic reflection data, combined with dislocation modeling, indicates that near-shore fault segmentation is more complex than previously thought and ruptures likely involve multiple upper-plate faults. Future updates of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model should revise the northern Hikurangi subduction seismic sources so that rupture does not uplift Puatai Beach and Pakarae River mouth and include new near-shore upper-plate faults as multifault sources.

Multiple (>20 \ud >20\ud ) crustal faults ruptured to the ground surface and seafloor in the 14 November 2016 M w \ud Mw\ud 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, and many have been documented in detail, providing an opportunity to understand the factors controlling multifault ruptures, including the role of the subduction interface. We present a summary of the surface ruptures, as well as previous knowledge including paleoseismic data, and use these data and a 3D geological model to calculate cumulative geological moment magnitudes (M G w \ud MwG\ud ) and seismic moments for comparison with those from geophysical datasets. The earthquake ruptured faults with a wide range of orientations, sense of movement, slip rates, and recurrence intervals, and crossed a tectonic domain boundary, the Hope fault. The maximum net surface displacement was ∼12 m \ud ∼12 m\ud on the Kekerengu and the Papatea faults, and average displacements for the major faults were 0.7–1.5 m south of the Hope fault, and 5.5–6.4 m to the north. M G w \ud MwG\ud using two different methods are M G w \ud MwG\ud 7.7 +0.3 −0.2 \ud 7.7−0.2+0.3\ud and the seismic moment is 33%–67% of geophysical datasets. However, these are minimum values and a best estimate M G w \ud MwG\ud incorporating probable larger slip at depth, a 20 km seismogenic depth, and likely listric geometry is M G w \ud MwG\ud 7.8±0.2 \ud 7.8±0.2\ud , suggests ≤32% \ud ≤32%\ud of the moment may be attributed to slip on the subduction interface and/or a midcrustal detachment. Likely factors contributing to multifault rupture in the Kaikōura earthquake include (1) the presence of the subduction interface, (2) physical linkages between faults, (3) rupture of geologically immature faults in the south, and (4) inherited geological structure. The estimated recurrence interval for the Kaikōura earthquake is ≥5,000–10,000 yrs \ud ≥5,000–10,000 yrs\ud , and so it is a relatively rare event. Nevertheless, these findings support the need for continued advances in seismic hazard modeling to ensure that they incorporate multifault ruptures that cross tectonic domain boundaries.

The Alpine fault in south Westland, New Zealand, releases strains of Pacific–Australian relative plate motion in large earthquakes with an average interevent spacing of ∼330 years. A new record of earthquake recurrence has been developed at Hokuri Creek, with evidence for 22 events. The youngest Hokuri Creek earthquake overlaps in time and is believed to be the same as the oldest of another site about 100 km to the northwest near Haast. The combined record spans the last 7900 years and includes 24 events. We study the recurrence rate and conditional probability of ground ruptures from this record using a new likelihood‐based approach for estimation of recurrence model parameters. Paleoseismic parameter estimation includes both dating and natural recurrence uncertainties. Lognormal and Brownian passage time (BPT) models are considered. The likelihood surface has distribution location and width parameters as axes, the mean and standard deviation of the log recurrence for the lognormal, and the mean and coefficient of variation for the BPT. The maximum‐likelihood (ML) point gives the parameters most likely to have given rise to the data. The ML point, 50‐year conditional probabilities of a ground‐rupturing earthquake are 26.8% and 26.1% for the lognormal and BPT models, respectively. Contours of equal likelihood track the parameter pairs that are equally probable to have given rise to the observed data. Conditional probabilities on the lognormal 95% boundary around the ML point range from 18.2% to 35.8%. An empirical distribution model completely based on past recurrence times gives a similar conditional probability of 27.1% (9.6%–50.2%). In contrast, the time‐independent conditional probability estimate of 13.6% (8.8%–19.1%) is about half that of the time‐dependent models. A nonparametric test of earthquake recurrence at Hokuri Creek indicates that time‐dependent recurrence models best represent the southern Alpine fault of the South Island, New Zealand.

A fundamentally important but typically abbreviated component of seismic‐hazard analysis is the selection of earthquake scaling relationships. These are typically regressions of historical earthquake datasets, in which magnitude is estimated from parameters such as fault rupture length and area. The mix of historical data from different tectonic environments and the different forms of the regression equations can result in large differences in magnitude estimates for a given fault rupture length or area. We compile a worldwide set of regressions and make a first‐order shortlisting of regressions according to their relevance to a range of tectonic regimes (plate tectonic setting and fault slip type) in existence around the world. Regression relevance is based largely on the geographical distribution, age, and quantity/quality of earthquake data used to develop them. Our compilation is limited to regressions of magnitude (or seismic moment) on fault rupture area or length, and our shortlisted regressions show a large magnitude range (up to a full magnitude unit) for a given rupture length or area across the various tectonic regimes. These large differences in magnitude estimates underline the importance of choosing regressions carefully for seismic‐hazard application in different tectonic environments.

A team of earthquake geologists, seismologists, and engineering seis- mologists has collectively produced an update of the national probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for New Zealand (National Seismic Hazard Model, or NSHM). The new NSHM supersedes the earlier NSHM published in 2002 and used as the hazard basis for the New Zealand Loadings Standard and numerous other end-user applica- tions. The new NSHM incorporates a fault source model that has been updated with over 200 new onshore and offshore fault sources and utilizes new New Zealand-based and international scaling relationships for the parameterization of the faults. The dis- tributed seismicity model has also been updated to include post-1997 seismicity data, a new seismicity regionalization, and improved methodology for calculation of the seismicity parameters. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps produced from the new NSHM show a similar pattern of hazard to the earlier model at the national scale, but there are some significant reductions and increases in hazard at the regional scale. The national-scale differences between the new and earlier NSHM appear less than those seen between much earlier national models, indicating that some degree of consis- tency has been achieved in the national-scale pattern of hazard estimates, at least for return periods of 475 years and greater. Online Material: Table of fault source parameters for the 2010 national seismic- hazard model.

Strata and fault relationships revealed in five trenches excavated across the recent trace of the Alpine fault at the Haast, Okuru, and Turnbull Rivers, South Westland, New Zealand, record the three most recent surface‐faulting events. Using back‐stripping techniques to remove the three faulting events and the sedimentary units associated with the faulting restores the cross‐sections to gravel‐bed floodplains at the Haast and Okuru Rivers, at about A.D. 750. Horizontal and vertical offsets of stream channels and terrace risers reveal characteristic displacements of about 8–9 m dextral and up to 1 m vertical per event. Cumulative dextral displacement is 25±3 m in the past three events. The most recent surface‐rupture event was probably in A.D. 1717, and the next prior events were about A.D. 1230±50 and about A.D.750±50. The timing of these events is consistent with past large‐great earthquakes on the southern section of the Alpine fault inferred from off‐fault data, but there are fewer events identified in trenches. Our three‐event dataset indicates the average surface‐rupture recurrence interval for the South Westland section of the fault is about 480 years, much longer than the current elapsed time of 295 years. Therefore, the Alpine fault in South Westland may not be close to rupture as is often speculated.

The formation and uplift of Holocene marine terraces along a 160-km-long stretch of the Wairarapa coast in the southern Hikurangi subduction margin, North Island, New Zealand, are interpreted in terms of causative faults and associated large earthquakes during the past circa 7000 cal yr B.P. Distinctive stepped terrace morphology, the clustering of radiocarbon ages on each uplifted terrace, and the historic occurrence of coseismic uplift in other parts of eastern and southern North Island, support the contention that coastal uplift occurred suddenly and repeatedly during large-magnitude earthquakes. The rupture of five west-dipping reverse or reverse-oblique faults within the Australian plate, whose surface traces lie a short distance seaward of the present shoreline, are inferred to be responsible for coastal uplift. Individual structures range in length from 25 to 60 km. These lengths, together with uplift events in the range of 1–4 m, suggest earthquakes in the range of M w 7–7.5. Approximately 20% of the radiocarbon ages are anomalously young for their elevations, but many have ages indistinguishable from accepted ages for terrace uplift. We infer that many of the anomalous ages are from samples deposited by tsunami that occurred in association with offshore fault rupture on adjacent sections of the coast.

The El Salvador earthquake of 13 February 2001 (Mw 6.6) caused tectonic rupture on the El Salvador fault zone (ESFZ). Right-lateral strike-slip surface rupture of the east–west trending fault zone had a maximum surface displacement of 0.60 m. No vertical component was observed. The earthquake resulted in widespread landslides in the epicentral area, where bedrock is composed of volcanic sediments, tephra, and weak ignimbrites. In the aftermath of the earthquake, widespread damage to houses and roads and the hazards posed by landslides captured the attention of responding agencies and scientists, and the presence of surface-fault rupture was overlooked. Additionally, the tectonic context in which the earthquake took place had not been clear until mapping of the ESFZ was completed for the present study.We identified several fault segments, the distribution of surface ruptures, the aftershock pattern, and fault-rupture scaling considerations that indicate the 21-km-long San Vicente segment ruptured in the 2001 event. Static Coulomb stress transfer models for the San Vicente rupture are consistent with both aftershock activity of the 2001 sequence and ongoing background seismicity in the region. At Mw 6.6, the 2001 earthquake was of only moderate magnitude, yet there was significant damage to the country’s infrastructure, including buildings and roads, and numerous deaths and injuries. Thus, earthquake hazard and risk in the vicinity of the ESFZ, which straddles the city of San Salvador with a population of >2 million, is high because even moderate-magnitude events can result in major damage, deaths, and injuries in the region.

We present a new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for New Zealand. An important feature of the analysis is the application of a new method for the treatment of historical (distributed) seismicity data in PSHA. The PSHA uses the seismicity recorded across and beneath the country to define a three-dimensional grid of a -values (i.e., parameter a of a Gutenberg-Richter distribution log N/yr = a - bM , in which N /yr is the number of earthquakes per year recorded inside each grid cell equal to or greater than magnitude M ); parameter b and the limiting maximum cutoff magnitude of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution are defined from the surrounding region (14 crustal and 23 subcrustal seismotectonic zones are defined for the country) and then smoothed across the boundaries of the zones. The methodology therefore combines the modern method of defining continuous distributions of seismicity parameters (Frankel, 1995; Frankel et al. , 1996) with the traditional method of defining large area sources and the associated seismicity parameters (e.g., Algermissen et al. , 1990). The methodology provides a means of including deep (subduction zone) seismicity in a PSHA, preserves the finer-scale spatial variations of seismicity rates across a region, avoids the undesirable edge effects produced in the traditional method when adjacent area sources enclose areas of significantly different seismicity rates, and also enables parameters most reliably defined at a regional scale (parameter b and maximum cutoff magnitude of a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, and slip type) to be incorporated into the PSHA. The PSHA combines the modeled seismicity data with geological data describing the location and earthquake recurrence behavior of 305 active faults and new attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration developed specifically for New Zealand. Different attenuation expressions are used for crustal and subduction zone earthquakes. The resulting PSH maps for a 150-year return period show the highest hazard to occur in the center and southwest of the country, in the areas of highest historical crustal and deep subduction zone seismicity. In contrast, the longer return-period maps (475 and 1000 year return period) show the highest hazard to occur from the southwest to northeast ends of the country, along the faults that accommodate the majority of the motion between the Pacific and Australian plates. The maps are currently being used to revise New Zealand's building code, which has previously been based on PSHAs that did not explicitly include individual faults as earthquake sources. Manuscript received 10 April 2001.

Estimates of surface rupture displacement and magnitude for crustal earthquakes from the preinstrumental era (pre-1900) tend to be greater than the corresponding estimates derived from modern scaling relations. We investigate this tendency using an expanded and updated version of the earthquake dataset of Wells and Coppersmith (1994) to fit regression relations of moment magnitude on surface rupture length and rupture area and average surface displacement on surface rupture length. Separate relations are fitted to preinstrumental and instrumental data and the results compared to the equivalent relations of Wells and Coppersmith. We find that our relations for instrumental data remove some, but not all, of the differences between the preinstrumental data and the relations of Wells and Coppersmith. We attribute the remaining differences largely to natural censoring of surface displacements less than about 1 m and surface rupture lengths less than about 5 km from the dataset for the preinstrumental era because regressions constructed from similarly censored instrumental data are indistinguishable from the preinstrumental regressions. Since the regressions for our censored instrumental data (i.e., restricted to moderate to large earthquakes) are different from regressions for our complete dataset of instrumental earthquakes and from the regressions of Wells and Coppersmith (both with a larger proportion of small-to-moderate earthquakes), the results may indicate that large earthquakes have different scaling relationships from those of smaller earthquakes.