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The road use load should essentially conform to the plan load as stated in the design guidelines. But in reality, the load received by the road is more than standard, so it has the potential to accelerate road damage. This study aims to predict the increase in the value of the International Roughness Index (IRI) and model the increase in value (IRI) due to overload. The approach method used in the analysis is the prediction of an increase in the IRI value due to excess load. The data collection method is carried out on road sections which include IRI values, vehicle load testing, CBR values and environmental conditions. The location of data collection is carried out on BTS Provincial Road. Surabaya City – Legundi. The analysis method for the prediction of the IRI value is the HDM-4 method, while to model the prediction of the increase in the IRI value is used exponential method with various parameters related to the results. The prediction results show that overload affects the increase in the IRI value. From the initial IRI value of 2.37, if the road is traversed by vehicles with standard loads for 20 years, the IRI value increases to 10.42. While the road traveled by overloaded vehicles within 20 years from an IRI value of 2.37 will increase to 16.88. With overload, the IRI value increases very sharply with the exponential model y = 2.3583e0.0982x . While the standard load by generating an exponential model y = 2.3825e0.0739x . From the results of the exponential model, load overload resulted in a significant increase in the IRI value with a growth rate of 0.0982. When compared to normal expenses which only experienced a growth rate of 0.0739. The modeling results show that overload will increase the growth of very high IRI values with the exponential model increase graph. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]