1. A High-Resolution Modeling Strategy to Assess Impacts of Climate Change for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean
- Author
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Carlos D. Pérez, Robert J. Oglesby, Jayaka D. Campbell, Alfred Grunwaldt, Clinton M. Rowe, Berta Olmedo, Franklyn Ruiz, Alejandro del Castillo, Edwards Matos, Pilar Mendiola López, Luis Alvarado, Joel Perez, Yosef Nava, Francisco Argenal, and Ines Ferreira
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Meteorology ,Land use ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,Climate change ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,020801 environmental engineering ,Psychiatry and Mental health ,Variable (computer science) ,Effects of global warming ,Climatology ,Weather Research and Forecasting Model ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Precipitation ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Downscaling - Abstract
Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate; 12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts.
- Published
- 2016