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We study how campaign funding influences winning chances of candidates using the US House of Representatives elections in all 50 states and Washington D.C. from 2000 to 2018. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between campaign expenditure, campaign contributions and winning probability. However, incumbent spending is less effective than contender spending due to diminishing returns for the former. We also scrutinize the gap between campaign expenditure and contributions made by special interest groups. The winning probability of incumbent candidates does not necessarily decrease even if they spend less than the funds received for the election campaigns. Obtained results are robust to alternative econometric specifications, estimation methods, the correction of possible endogeneity of campaign funding and sample sizes. Our results, therefore, show the variation in the effectiveness of campaign spending contingent on incumbency status and imply the social welfare diminishing effects of spare funds received by incumbents from special interest groups. JEL Classification : D72, P16. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has had tremendous impacts on political, economic and social developments across the globe. Although some studies show that voters tend to hold incumbent parties accountable for managing the pandemic, the results of others suggest that the rally-round-the-flag strategy might be at plan. We contend that voters tend to hold the incumbent party accountable, even during an exogenous shock, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesize that more stringent government responses to tackle the pandemic and more COVID-19 casualties tend to decrease the electoral support for incumbent parties. Using original data from 67 national elections in 56 electoral democracies from mid-March 2020 to May 2022, the empirical results support our hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the organisational and individual drivers and barriers to the implementation of circular business models (CBM) by incumbents and start-ups in the workwear industry. It is based on a qualitative study of 15 organisations in the Swedish workwear industry. Most incumbents are found to have either long-life models with hybrid elements, such as repair, or access models, while circular start-ups have a larger variety of CBMs, although the most common is gap exploiter. Internal organisational barriers mostly differ between the two groups; however, external organisational barriers are more significant and common, such as the low price of new workwear, a lack of demand and a lack of supporting policies, for example, public procurement. Several organisational drivers are identified, such as opportunities to deliver customer value, textile and digital innovations and environmental concerns. Drivers and barriers are influenced by both type of CBM and type of company. Individual drivers and barriers, which are often overlooked in literature, are found to be important to CBM implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Democratic backsliding by incumbents is one of the most prevalent forms of backsliding in recent global trends of democratic erosion. Understanding the attitude of voters toward backsliding incumbents is crucial because popular support is the basis of legitimacy for these incumbents. This article studies voter attitudes in the Philippines, where democracy was subverted by the incumbent president, Rodrigo Duterte, who served from 2016 to 2022. Specifically, we examine the validity of the claim that Filipino voters are acquiring a "taste for illiberal rule" made by some scholars. First, we analyzed the survey data regarding the support for various types of political systems, where part of the data comes from our originally commissioned survey at the Social Weather Stations. Second, we explored Pulse Asia's longitudinal survey data on martial-rule support. Our investigation of these survey data did not find substantive support for the "taste for illiberal rule" proposition. Further, we argue that Filipino voters are contingent supporters of illiberal politics while supporting the procedural principles of democracy at the baseline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a time of declining support for democracy and intensifying rivalry between democracies and autocracies, understanding how nondemocratic nations portray U.S. elections is vital. And yet, despite the enormous attention U.S. presidential elections attract around the world, the manner in which international media makes sense of U.S. campaigns remains unclear, with only a limited number of comparative studies conducted and even fewer looking at non-Western, nondemocratic nations. Furthermore, current comparative frameworks remain biased toward Western conceptualizations of media and their role in democratic countries, with nondemocratic or transitional democracies used to support theoretical models developed elsewhere. Thus, this study offers strategic media narratives as an alternative means to understand transnational similarities and differences in election reporting emerging from four non-Western, nondemocratic nations by comparing their coverage of the 2020 and 2016 U.S. presidential campaigns. Results show substantial shifts in the nature of coverage, albeit with some similarities between campaigns. Trump remained negatively discussed in both elections, but with reporting in 2020 associating his leadership character to his policies. Whereas Clinton was negatively covered in 2016, Biden was neutrally discussed in 2020 with focus on his character and policies drawn in contrast to Trump. Both political parties were negatively covered, with Chinese, Russian, and Iranian narratives associating Republicans and Democrats as pursing confrontational relations with each nation. Most importantly, discussions of U.S. democracy were substantially more frequent and negative in 2020 compared to 2016. Taken together, the study contributes theoretically and empirically to the study of comparative election research by theorizing the role of narratives in international campaign coverage, addressing the gap in research into nondemocratic media reporting of international elections, and provides one of the few cross-time comparisons enabling insight into the drivers of how and why coverage of U.S. elections change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coordination on mass protest plays an important disciplining role in ensuring compliance with electoral rules, with elections serving as a public signal of the incumbent's popularity. But the link between the informativeness of the election and the enforceability of electoral rules hinges crucially on the veracity of the electoral process. We model how doubt about electoral integrity influences compliance with electoral rules. Our analysis explains why electoral rules in advanced democracies are less resilient, and incumbents less willing to step aside, than suggested by the standard model of electoral turnover. We clarify how incumbent behaviour responds to changes in the cost of protest, and external overtures that make stepping down more attractive. Our findings contribute to the debate on the role of equilibrium multiplicity in models of mass uprisings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We offer a candidate-centered amendment to incumbent-referendum models of presidential election outcomes that dominate the literature on post-WWII presidential elections. Our argument is that incumbent-challenger differences in character qualifications and issue concerns of the electorate should be included. These differentials, which recognize the advantage or disadvantage of the incumbent relative to the challenger party candidate have strong effects on election outcomes independent of the state of the economy, the number of years the incumbent party has held the White House, and presidential approval. Properly understood, in addition to the state of national affairs, presidential election outcomes are about the choice presented to the mass public. This added element means that candidates matter for election outcomes and electoral change in ways that have not been properly appreciated in existing scholarship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As cooperatives become a crucial part of our society's repository of solutions for addressing the sustainability challenges, the very emergence of cooperatives continues to puzzle scholars. In this study we address a central concern for both organizational scholars and sustainability advocates, i.e. where and under which conditions cooperatives emerge as an alternative form to corporations. Building on organizational ecology theories, we argue that the varying organizational characteristics within local incumbent forms constitute an additional layer to explain cooperatives' emergence, above and beyond the known effects of community characteristics and incumbents' aggregated density (or capacity). Our analysis of a unique data set of German energy cooperatives between 2003 and 2010 support our hypotheses. Our results show that energy cooperatives are more likely to be founded where incumbent utilities have higher average age and greater size diversity, because age-related inertia and lack of competition among incumbents of diverse size limit their adaptability towards serving the new market demand for renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Airbnb debuted in 2008, incumbent lodging firms did not fully recognize it as a legitimate competitor for several years. However, as Airbnb made inroads into the accommodation business, hotel firms and their investors started to take notice and to legitimize its disruptive role. In this paper, we investigate investors' awareness of the disruptor Airbnb as a competitor of incumbent lodging firms. Specifically, we assess the effect of awareness on incumbent hotel management and hotel property owner firms. Employing an event study methodology, our analysis finds that Airbnb performance milestones negatively affect incumbents' market value. This research contributes to our understanding of the role played by investors and financial analysts in shaping competitive markets by legitimizing an industry disruptor and by spurring competitive action among incumbent firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Should an incumbent for-profit retailer deter a "socially responsible" store from entering the market? As a differentiation strategy to avoid direct price competition with well-established retailers, some socially responsible stores (or brands) enter the market with a "pre-commitment" to donate a certain proportion of their (A) profits or (B) revenues to charities. Because these charitable donations generate a "warm-glow" effect for consumers, these socially responsible stores can use pre-committed donations to gain market access. In this paper, we present a game-theoretic model in which a socially responsible retailer enters the market to compete with an incumbent for-profit retailer. We determine and compare the incumbent retailer's deterrence strategies (i.e., deter or tolerate) across different types of socially responsible stores. Our equilibrium analysis generates the following insights. First, the incumbent retailer's deterrence strategy depends on its cost advantage over the socially responsible store, and hinges upon the socially responsible store's entry cost, pre-commitment level, and its warm-glow effect. Second, even if the incumbent retailer can profitably deter the socially responsible retailer's entry, the incumbent retailer can actually be better off by tolerating instead of deterring its entry when the socially responsible store's entry cost is low and the incumbent store's cost advantage is not significant. Third, relatively speaking, a type (B) store that donates a portion of its revenue is more vulnerable unless it can generate a much higher warm-glow effect. We extend our analysis numerically to examine the case when the pre-committed proportion is endogenously determined and obtain similar structural results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study content analyzes the news coverage of two major presidential candidates—one populist challenger, the other female incumbent—in the 2020 Taiwan election. A nation-wide survey of voters and their newspaper uses was also utilized to verify the association between partisan news reliance and candidate evaluations. Based on the concept of partisan press, the study confirms that the coverage is highly polarizing and that it includes more horse race analysis than discussion of serious issues. Sexist and misogynistic terms were used more often by party-opponent (Blue-camp) newspapers to describe the female incumbent. The male populist candidate was portrayed more often in a personal fashion than the female candidate. The voters' primary newspaper uses were found to be positively associated with their candidate evaluations and preferences. The study sheds new light on populist vis-à-vis gendered election coverage in the context of an Asian democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Descriptive representation is shaped by more than the number of seats group members win—it is also informed by how group members hold on to seats long after election day. Drawing from the literatures on women of color, women, and minorities in politics, this study argues that the relationship between incumbents and descriptive representation is different among groups that hold distinctive political positioning and power. To uncover those differences, the article introduces a new measure called descriptive maintenance, which accounts for a group's ability to retain descriptive representation in a seat across unique group members and elections. This multidimensional approach expands current conceptualizations by treating incumbency and descriptive representation as interrelated, group-level, phenomena. This framework is tested using nearly 60,000 observations of state elections data in an analysis focused on a group of state legislative incumbents that has rarely been explicitly examined, and yet outnumbers all others: white men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article addresses the candidate selection process for realistic list positions with regard to multiple-office holding and personal characteristics in flexible-list proportional representation (PR) systems within the Czech context. More specifically, this issue is explored in the 2006–2017 elections to the Czech Chamber of Deputies. Results of binary logistic regression analysis with observations clustered by party or constituency indicate that incumbents (with or without multiple office holding) stand a significantly higher probability of being selected as a realistic candidate. This probability increases only if the incumbent also has the regional mandate. The results also show that candidates with a PhD degree or higher, with a higher public office position, at the age of forty-one to fifty years, or with residence in a regional capital or in Prague have a significant probability of being selected as a realistic candidate. A specific gender bias was also found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Civil conflict increases incumbents' vulnerability, expands their coercive capacity, enervates public good provision, and stifles public opposition. Consequently, we expect that elections held during civil conflict will feature more incumbent-perpetrated election violence. We test our argument with disaggregated data on election violence, generating two principal findings. First, elections held during civil conflict are more likely to feature violent coercion by incumbents. Second, this effect does not depend on the conflict's intensity or political salience, but is endemic to conflict-affected societies as a class. This raises questions about the nature of elections in conflict-affected societies and the relationship between forms of political violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the sharing economy continues to disrupt incumbent services, whether and how incumbents respond to the competition remains largely unknown. We investigate how incumbents can utilize management responses—a managerial intervention to guest reviews—to exploit performance improvement opportunities in guest reviews and sustain competitive advantage facing increased competition from home sharing. Our method integrates quasi‐experiments, topic modeling, and deep learning techniques to not only estimate the impact of home sharing but also unveil the performance improvement mechanism. The findings reveal distinctive management response strategies across hotel price segments after home sharing's entry, which lead to divergent performance outcomes in guest satisfaction and sales. Regardless of their price segments, any hotel that responds more actively to guest reviews demonstrates improved guest satisfaction in service areas where home‐sharing leads (e.g., check‐in/out, cleanliness, sightseeing opportunity, and room conditions) and achieves higher sales. In contrast, hotels that respond less to guest reviews appear to lose guest satisfaction and sales to not only home sharing but also peer hotel cohorts that respond more. Our study contributes to the literature on the intersection of service operations and technology and provides timely implications that can inform incumbents' response strategies to disruptions in the ever‐changing business world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses how and when institutional actors can shape overlap with other international organisations. Growing overlap either poses the threat of marginalisation to the incumbent organisation or offers opportunities for cooperation. Institutional actors should therefore be expected to try shape the relations with the overlapping organisation to protect their own. The article theorises that institutional actors can shape overlap if they possess sufficient institutional capacity and face a favourable opportunity structure. Whether institutional actors embrace or resist overlap, in turn, depends on their perception of the nature of the domain expansion of the other international organisation. Relying on 20 interviews with senior officials, the article probes the argument against the case of the growing overlap between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union resulting from the latter's recent security and defence initiatives. Contrary to most expectations, it finds that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization actors played a consequential role in restructuring the relationship with the European Union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine how Italian municipalities manage COVID-19 communication on their official Facebook pages. For this purpose, we apply an automatic topic modeling procedure on a sample of 76,139 posts published on the official Facebook pages of 103 Italian provincial capital municipalities from 1 March 2020 to 26 March 2021 of the COVID-19 pandemic period. We identify two topics related to COVID-19 consisting of restrictive measures and support measures. Using regression models with municipality and year-week fixed effects, we find that the prevalence of the topic on COVID-19 restrictive measures negatively affects the tone of the communication, computed through a sentiment analysis procedure, and it is negatively associated with the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the municipal area. In contrast, the prevalence of the topic on COVID-19 support measures positively affects the tone of the communication and it is positively associated with the number of positive cases. These associations are moderated by ideology, age, and political incentives of incumbent mayors. These results may reveal a strategic communication of municipalities to induce positive perceptions about the performance of municipal incumbents in responding to the pandemic and, therefore, enhance political consensus among voters. Finally, these findings may have practical implications for public regulators, public managers, and other followers of local governments on social media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous work on candidate campaign finance in list proportional representation systems has focused on differential electoral returns of spending for incumbent and challenger candidates. This article asks whether incumbents and challengers in these systems fund election campaigns from different sources. We hypothesize that incumbents receive more: (a) contributions from individual and corporate donors; and (b) financial support from party organizations, as party elites strategically deploy resources to constrain intra-party competition. The analysis is based on a dataset on campaign funding sources of candidates for two legislative elections in Colombia (2014 and 2018). The results confirm that party organizations transfer more financial resources to incumbents than to challengers. Contrary to expectations, parties do not specifically support the electorally most vulnerable incumbents. We also find that challengers receive higher levels of non-corporate private donations than incumbents. These findings provide insights into individual campaigns and demonstrate how parties coordinate intra-party competition through campaign funding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research indicates that law enforcement officers did not uphold optimal physical fitness. This study aimed to examine exercise motivations of incumbent officers. The EMI-2 was used to collect data. Kruskal–Wallis H tests and post-hoc Mann–Whitney U tests with Bonferroni-corrected p values were used to analyze the data. As a group, the officers were motivated to exercise for the positive health benefits. The results also indicated that building up strength/endurance and competition had influential impacts on their motivation to exercise. Police agencies may take these elements into consideration when planning and implementing a physical training program for the incumbent officers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, the second attempt in California history to recall a governor ended in a resounding victory for the Democratic incumbent. Unlike the recall of Governor Gray Davis in 2003, auspicious political conditions helped enable Gavin Newsom's survival; these included a large Democratic advantage in voter registration and an all-mail-ballot election that reduced participation costs. Turning points in the process included an extension of the signature-gathering deadline and the emergence of a polemical candidate who helped energize Democratic voters. These developments re-exposed flaws in the state's recall process and have prompted calls to reform the qualification procedures and the dual ballot format, which permits the election of a potentially anti-majoritarian replacement who receives a small fraction of the plurality vote. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While many post-communist European party systems have experienced the rise of anti-establishment parties, not all have been equally vulnerable to challengers attacking both cultural and economic liberalism. This article borrows insights from scholarship on Latin American politics and develops a critical juncture approach to understanding the linkages between economic liberalization and political illiberalism in 15 post-communist democracies during the 1990-2020 period. It argues that contingent political dynamics during post-communist junctures shaped ensuing legacies by conditioning the long-term programmatic positions and variable electoral performance of "traditional" leftist parties. This path-dependent process culminated in variable electoral viability of illiberal parties with incentives for ideological differentiation and organizational capacities to adopt those economic positions that were most likely to be electorally rewarded. By focusing on variable incentives, resources, and constraints, the article challenges previous scholarship and advances and tests a novel theoretical framework based on a probabilistic approach to critical juncture analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trump's authority was not undisputed; in Georgia, Trump's efforts to defeat Republican incumbent Governor Brian Kemp in the party primary fell far short. In aggregate, Trump endorsed over 250 candidates and over 80 per cent of these won, but many of these were in safe Republican seats and a handful of high-profile candidates bearing Trump's imprimatur were defeated. This analysis reflects how Trump won in an initially crowded field in 2016 as anti-Trump forces were divided between those seen as more regular party candidates. [Extracted from the article]

Alongside the focus on prime ministers within an institutional setting, it is important to recognise the significance of individual skills, styles and personality. Differing individuals will have differing performative skill levels and different leadership styles. The premise that leadership analysis should focus on the interaction between the political skills of the leader and the institutional environment in which they are operating is one that has gained some traction in contemporary political leadership scholarship. This article concentrates on the impact of the individual on the office, considering first the agent-centred approaches to prime ministerial study and applying the interactive model of leadership capital to the contemporary UK premiership, drawing some comparisons with Japan. Focusing on the three components of leadership capital – skills, relations and reputation of the individual in office – can give us a broader picture of the trajectory of prime ministerial leadership. Individual action, perceptions of the incumbent, decision making and style can all impact on the prime minister in office in the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After an introduction of competition due to liberalisation, there is an expectation of lower prices and better quality. However, these overall positive effects could be also driven by the incumbent's incentive to exclude competition within the liberalised markets. Such a situation occurred on the Prague-Ostrava line where liberalisation brought lower prices and an increase in quality. However, it also brought multiple accusations by both the Czech competition authority and the European Commission of the state-owned incumbent, České dráhy, that it had engaged in predatory pricing. This paper then assesses whether the price decreases within this line were driven by actual competition or by predatory behaviour of České dráhy by analysing the position of České dráhy. The aim of this paper therefore is to assess the real market power of the Czech state incumbent, České dráhy, on the Prague-Ostrava line. To achieve this aim, we used unique data we had gathered from our previous research (such as price development, market shares and customer behaviour). Our results then show that it is unlikely that České dráhy could have acted independently of its competitors and customers, which indicates that it could not have had a dominant position. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does war affect support for incumbent leaders and parties? The literature is divided with studies reporting negative, positive, or null-effects. Many studies analyze the consequences of foreign intervention, and less is known about the political costs of wars fought close to home. Building on theories of retrospective voting, we theorize that wars inform voters about leader's competence, and in turn affect mass attitudes and behaviors. Leveraging the unexpected onset of the 1973 Yom Kippur war which interrupted an ongoing Israeli public opinion poll, and voting records from four national elections linked with Israeli military fatality data, we demonstrate that despite the ultimate military victory, the war and its casualties reduced support for incumbent parties and leaders, and increased support for the opposition. By moving beyond foreign interventions, we provide strong evidence that wars over a country's core territory can be politically costly for incumbent leaders and parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last decade has seen an expansion of party primaries as a means of selecting legislative candidates. Since primaries are rarely subsidized, well-resourced candidates have a considerable advantage, which has an impact on equality, diversity and representation. This article focuses on the well-regulated legislative primaries in Israel, examining the gender gap in campaign expenditures, and its implication for the success of women candidates. The analysis is based on data regarding 365 candidates (97 women and 268 men) who competed in seven primary contests in three parties between 2008 and 2015. Our findings show that male candidates spend on average more than female candidates do. However, this difference is pronounced among new candidates only. Moreover, we find that men do better than women in terms of electoral success and that this electoral advantage is explained by the differences in campaign expenses and the share of incumbents between women and men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do minor states protect themselves against coercion from their major power allies? Asymmetric security cooperation is often reduced to tradeoffs between security and autonomy, but coercion is another factor that minor states fear while cooperating. Coercing partner states can take the form of major powers threatening or undertaking regime change, and minor states must weigh the benefits of cooperation against this risk. To this end, I suggest that minor states with anti-major power political oppositions cooperate more extensively with their major power partners than minor states with pro-major power oppositions. A pro-major power opposition provides opportunities for major powers to threaten or replace the incumbent regime; therefore, such minor states limit their cooperation out of fear of coercion. I employ original data on opposition characteristics to present evidence from security relations between the United States and 65 minor states during 1950–1991 to support the hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do governments presiding over tax increases lose votes? One assumption is tax increases affect incumbent parties equally but we also expect asymmetric responses with differing penalties for left- and right-wing parties. Influential literature also assumes voters incapable of assigning responsibility to policymakers or holding them accountable. We find that tax increases are more costly to a left-of-centre party. Previous research assessing this is hampered by a lack of comparable cases; however, our tests are conducted with results from thousands of English local elections across decades. We find tax increases by labour-controlled councils corresponded with a significant vote swing against labour. There were no effects of rate increases on votes for conservative-controlled or Lib Dem-controlled councils. These results have implications for how democratic elections may produce responsive governments, and we discuss why there may be an asymmetry, where there is more electoral responsiveness to tax increases by governments of the left. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many parliamentary democracies, incumbents retain the right to call early elections. This is thought to provide incumbent governments with an advantage due to the ability to time elections to favorable economic conditions. This article explores an additional incumbency advantage of early elections. Due to information asymmetry about election timing, government parties can better plan fundraising in early elections years compared to non-government parties, which gives government parties a relative financial advantage. This proposition is tested on campaign spending data from over 50,000 British parliamentary candidates 1945–2019. The results support the argument. Government party candidates gain a relative financial advantage in early elections years compared to scheduled election years. The effect is found only for non-incumbent candidates and was eliminated by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011, which removed government early election calling. The results suggest that government election calling power provides incumbent government parties with a relative financial advantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parliamentary candidates face choices about the extent to which they personalise their election campaigns. They must strike a balance between promoting their party's message and their own personal appeal, and they must decide how much effort to invest in developing personalised campaign activities. These decisions determine the nature of the campaigns that candidates run, and therefore, voters' experience during elections. In this article, we use individual-level survey data from the British Representation Study to explore the extent to which candidates personalise their election campaigns in terms of messaging focus and activities. We find that candidates who live in the area they seek to represent, and those who are more positive about their electoral chances, run more personalised campaigns, in terms of focus and activities. Incumbents' campaigns, meanwhile, are more personalised in their focus only, while candidates who have held national party office tend to use a greater range of personalised campaign activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout American history some members of Congress are beset with the unfortunate predicament of facing a fellow incumbent in their bids for reelection. One culprit is responsible for these atypical contests: redistricting. Using district and sub-district level data, this research note provides the first systematic coverage of all dueling incumbent general election U.S. House races from 1843 to 2018. We chronicle and analyze when we expect to see dueling incumbent races, the ability of parties to target out-party incumbents, and the electoral value of previously represented constituents for incumbents in reconfigured districts. Although incumbent duels are uncommon, they comprise a substantial number of incumbent general election defeats in contests following redistricting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do voters support executive aggrandizement? One possible answer is that they do so because they think this will ease their preferred leader's hand in putting their partisan vision into action, provided that the leader will continue winning elections. We study this phenomenon through a survey experiment in Turkey, by manipulating voters' perceptions about the potential results of the first presidential election after a constitutional referendum of executive aggrandizement. We find that voters from both sides display what we call "elastic support" for executive aggrandizement; that is, they change previously revealed constitutional preferences in response to varying winning chances. This elasticity increases not only when citizens feel greater social distance to perceived political "others" (i.e., affective polarization) but also when voters are concerned about economic management in a potential post-incumbent era. Our findings contribute to the literature on how polarization and economic anxiety contribute to executive aggrandizement and democratic backsliding. 1 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do governments in post-conflict settings provide for policing within their countries? I argue that leaders respond to both electoral concerns and security threats in shaping the geographic provision of policing infrastructure. Focusing on Uganda, I contend that the territorial expansion of policing has followed a distinct political logic. First, I use panel data on police infrastructure to demonstrate increased construction in counties with previously lower electoral support for the incumbent regime. Additionally, I find that counties with violence are more likely to experience increases in construction, but especially in areas where the incumbent has more support. Finally, I show that (1) proximity to police infrastructure is associated with worse individual perceptions of the police and (2) that increased construction of police infrastructure has large significant effects on reducing voter turnout while increasing vote share for the incumbent president. These findings have important implications for post-conflict reconstruction, stability, and violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies on horizontal outsourcing between competing duopolists emphasize cost factors, such as economies of scale and/or variable cost advantages in Cournot markets, as potential explanations. Our paper studies horizontal outsourcing when two competing firms engage in Bertrand competition, and highlights the important role of sole sourcing commitment. We adopt the framework of a multistage duopoly game that comprises of an incumbent and an entrant. The incumbent has the capability to make a key component in‐house, and the entrant, who is a rival of the incumbent in the downstream market, can source the component from either the incumbent or a supplier not participating in the end‐product market. We find that if the entrant commits to sole sourcing, horizontal outsourcing can occur when the incumbent has a component cost advantage or even a small cost disadvantage over the alternative supplier. Specifically, if the component cost gap is small, horizontal outsourcing may soften downstream market competition and benefit both firms at the expense of inducing higher prices for the consumers. If the incumbent has a significant cost advantage, horizontal outsourcing may lead to an increased downstream price war by expanding the total supply of end products. Without sole sourcing commitment, horizontal outsourcing occurs only when the incumbent has a cost advantage, and it always strengthens downstream price competition. By contrast, if the firms engage in downstream Cournot competition, sole sourcing commitment has no impact on the adoption of horizontal outsourcing, and the entrant sources from her rival only when the incumbent enjoys a significant cost advantage. Finally, we also study various extensions to check and confirm the robustness of our main results to key model assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides empirical evidence to show how the general secretaries of the Chinese Communist Party dominated provincial personnel through their factional ties. Based on panel data from 1993 to 2017, this study finds that the provincial leaders' personal connections with the incumbent party head significantly increased their promotion chances. The positive effect of the incumbent party heads on promotion did not depend on provincial leaders' economic performance and seniority. This study further uncovers that working experiences in the prefectural leading positions strongly increased the likelihood of promotion. However, connections with other important top leaders did not have similar effects. These findings challenge the traditional wisdom on the collective leadership and indicate the dominance of the Chinese Communist Party's heads for provincial personnel arrangements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2020, Alaskans voted to adopt a nonpartisan top-4 primary followed by a ranked-choice general election. Proposals for “final four” and “final five” election systems are being considered in other states, as well as ranked-choice voting. The initial use of Alaska’s procedure in 2022 serves as a test case for examining whether such reforms may help moderate candidates avoid being “primaried.” In 2022, incumbent Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski held her seat against a Trump-endorsed Republican, Kelly Tshibaka. We use data from the 2022 election in Alaska, along with a mixed-mode survey of Alaskan voters before the general election, to test hypotheses about how voters behave in these kinds of elections, finding: (1) the moderate Republican candidate, Murkowski, likely would have lost a closed partisan primary; (2) some Democrats and independents favored the moderate Republican over the candidate of their own party, and the new rules allowed them to support her at all stages of the election, along with others who voted for her to stop the more conservative Republican candidate; and (3) that Alaskan voters are largely favorable toward the new rules, but that certain kinds of populist voters are likely to both support Trump and oppose the rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dynamics of co-production between a global subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) platform and a local producer. Based on a case study of "YG Future Strategy Office" co-produced by YG Entertainment and Netflix, it examines how various expectations of both companies are embedded in this series. On one hand, YG considers co-production as a means of promoting its artists for the global market which otherwise cannot be produced through pre-existing broadcasters. On the other hand, Netflix expects such co-productions to target the Asian market so that it can respond to the entry of incumbent media moguls into the SVOD market. While such co-productions seem to benefit both global platforms and local producers on the surface, however, this relationship may result in deteriorating the position of local actors as potential subcontractors considering the importance of distribution in the mediascape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Notwithstanding the significant advances made over the last twenty years in terms of charting and explaining the ways in which state punishment is influenced by economic and political forces, little is still known about the penal effects of conditions of economic crisis and about the role the incumbent government's political orientation plays in this regard. Because the few available studies on these questions have been preoccupied with the Anglo-American sphere and only in the context of recent decades at that, even less is known either about the implications that different types or experiences of economic crisis carry for state punishment, or about the influence exerted in this respect by government political orientations other than those found in established democracies. Irrespective of geographical or temporal scope, moreover, the impact that different extranational factors and actors may have in terms of economic, political or directly penal matters domestically remains poorly understood. With a view to helping fill these gaps in the literature, this article explores the effects on state punishment that economic crisis and government political orientation had in interaction with one another in the context of interwar Greece. Attention is first paid to various ways in which global capitalism was decisive in creating within Greece an environment conducive to increased punitiveness on the part of the state. The focus is on the economic, social and political consequences of the Wall Street crash of 1929 and Britain's exit from the gold standard in 1931, as these were exacerbated by Greece's long-term exposure to predatory lending, speculative investing and external interference in her domestic affairs in the context of engaging international capital markets. The article then proceeds to discuss how the Liberal government of 1928–1932 sought to handle the situation, particularly the approach it took towards punishment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As state-sponsored cyber operations have proliferated, some states are outsourcing these operations to non-state cyber proxies. However, given the relative ease of outsourcing cyber operations, it is puzzling why more states are not engaged in this practice. I examine how domestic accountability institutions potentially explain this restraint in the use of cyber proxies. I argue that in cases where the incumbent is likely to be held to account for cyber operations, there is restraint in the use of proxies. Moreover, I distinguish vertical from horizontal accountability and argue that because vertical accountability mechanisms directly threaten the tenure of the incumbent if outsourced cyber operations go wrong, it has a greater constraining effect relative to horizontal accountability. I test these propositions with new data on the activities of several hacker groups and robustly confirm that accountability institutions do place significant constraints on the use of cyber proxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much research contends that candidate competence brings technical or political skill, such that selecting against such attributes seems irrational. However, if special interest coalitions are sufficiently strong, a majority may expect that political expertise will be used to select policies that generate rents for narrow constituencies at the expense of its own welfare. I develop a model in which a majority prefers to elect the less competent politician in order to undermine the incumbent's ability to pursue the special interest agenda and derive the implications for accountability in this setting. The results demonstrate that the majority's attempts to reassert control over policy through its retention decisions impede social welfare maximizing reform and distort aggregate welfare by either encouraging (i) inefficient policy selection or (i i) inefficient candidate selection. Even if politicians choose policies that maximize social welfare doing so may only worsen aggregate welfare by providing voters with more information about candidate competence, which enables the majority to better select inept politicians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a theory of policymaking that examines when policy sabotage—the deliberate choice by an opposition party to interfere with the implementation of a policy—can be an effective electoral strategy, even if rational voters can observe that it is happening. In our model, a potential saboteur chooses whether to sabotage an incumbent's policy by blocking its successful implementation. A voter then decides whether to retain the incumbent, who is of unknown ability, or to select a challenger. We find that the incentives for sabotage are broadly shaped by the underlying popularity of the incumbent—it is most attractive when an incumbent is somewhat unpopular. If so, sabotage may decrease the probability the incumbent is reelected, even though sabotage is observable to the voter. This is because while the saboteur knows that sabotage will improve the incumbent's reputation, he fears that absent sabotage a policy success will improve that reputation even more. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political dynasties exist in practically every type of democracy, but take different forms in different places. Yet the types of dynastic structures have remained unexplored. We argue that horizontal dynasties—multiple members from the same political family holding different political offices concurrently—affect policymaking by replacing potential political rivals, who may oppose an incumbent's policy choices, with a member of the family. But in developing countries, the policy change that accrues from dynastic status may not lead to higher levels of economic development. We test this argument's implications in the Philippines. Using a close elections regression discontinuity design on a sample of mayors, we show that (i) horizontally dynastic mayors have higher levels of government spending, (ii) direct institutional constraints are the mechanism that drives this core result, and (iii) horizontally dynastic mayors do not lead to higher economic growth economic growth or lower poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Great Recession, exceptionally harsh economic conditions were often countered by austerity policies that, according to many, further worsened and protracted the negative conjuncture. Both elements, the poor state of the economy and the contractionary manoeuvers, are supposed to reduce the electoral prospects for incumbents. In this article, we compare the relative explanatory powers of these two theories before and during the economic crisis. We demonstrate that in normal times citizens are fiscally responsible, whereas during the Great Recession, and under certain conditions, austerity policies systematically reduced the support for incumbents on top of the state of the economy. This happened when the burdens of the manoeuvers were shared by many, in more equal societies, when the country was constrained by external conditionalities and when readjustments were mostly based on tax increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do incumbents dominate non-partisan elections because of an especially large personal vote? This question has important implications for understanding the causes of incumbent success and the benefits or drawbacks of non-partisan elections. This paper uses a natural experiment, combined with three original datasets, to estimate the size, persistence, and consequences of the personal vote in a large non-partisan city election. We first use individual-level survey data to show that individuals assigned quasi-randomly to a new incumbent are substantially less likely to support the incumbent. We use a second survey, one year later, to demonstrate the persistence of this effect. Finally, we use historical election results to simulate the electoral consequences of the personal vote; we find that the personal vote is sufficiently large to affect one in four incumbent races. We conclude that the personal vote, while large and important, is not sufficient to explain incumbent dominance in non-partisan contests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the literature on clientelism views the distribution of state jobs in the same way it does other forms of clientelistic exchange: as a mechanism of political mobilization. Despite its prevalence, this perspective does not account for the services that job recipients frequently provide to their political principals beyond the one-time exchange of political support. Drawing on extensive data from Benin and Ghana, including a comprehensive database of minister biographies, surveys of bureaucrats, administrative data, and elite interviews, this article argues that leaders distribute and manage state jobs in ways that enable them to extract and control state money for political financing. Whether incumbent leaders extract state resources themselves, delegate to elite party agents, or co-opt and coerce bureaucrats to divert money to the party shapes which jobs they distribute politically and to whom. The findings suggest that jobs are substantively different from other currencies of clientelistic exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sport leagues have been critiqued for their cartel-like behavior, monopsony power, and many occupational health risks to athletes. Athlete-owned sports leagues are an alternative way of organizing professional sport that may benefit athletes and the industry. This article examines the viability of athlete-owned leagues by reviewing theory and research on worker-owned firms and applying the findings to sports leagues with athlete ownership, with a focus on the Premier Lacrosse League. Five criteria are shown to affect the viability of worker ownership: heterogeneity of interests, capital-labor ratios, time horizons, motivation and efficiency, and conflict with capitalists. When applied to the sport industry, athlete ownership is likely in sports like beach volleyball and skateboarding but unlikely in sports like American football and soccer. Athlete-owned sports leagues have some benefits when compared with capitalist-owned leagues, but they will struggle in markets with incumbents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the conditions under which incumbent leaders in initially competitive political systems manage to offset democratic resistance and establish an authoritarian regime. Autocratisation – the transition from a competitive political system to a regime dominated by a single political force – is a challenging effort for an incumbent and involves interventions in three 'arenas' to achieve (a) public legitimation, (b) institutional reforms increasing political repression and (c) mass-scale co-optation. Focusing on Slovakia and Belarus in the 1990s, where autocratisation efforts failed and succeeded respectively, the article finds that co-optation plays a catalytic role in helping the incumbent pass institutional reforms and escalate repression without risking de-legitimation. In Belarus, co-optation engulfed society and the economy whereas, in Slovakia, a socioeconomic environment with greater autonomy from government limited the scope for co-optation. The Slovak opposition was able to find the resources and supporters necessary to fight back against the incumbent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of parties created around charismatic leaders is becoming more important in dynamic times when the mainstream parties are challenged by outsiders. Most of the research on personalized parties focuses on Western Europe although the phenomenon has significant implications for East European party systems. This article examines the development of two highly electorally successful personalized parties in Bulgaria: National Movement Simeon the Second (NDSV) and Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), the incumbent ruling party. Their similar success but different paths of development provide a good basis for examining the stabilizing factors of personalized parties. The article fills a gap in the theoretical field by using information from qualitative interviews with high-level party members and proves that adoption of an organizational strategy is the key factor for survival. Examining a case of the emergence of personalized parties, the research finds that alongside charismatic leaders, investment in local branches and representation in localities are stabilizing factors when the popularity of the leader decreases and in this way secure the more stable development of the party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debates about electoral reform revolve around giving voters more choice. Consequently, reformers often favor adopting the single transferable vote, a candidate-based system that allows voters to rank order candidates. Nonetheless, studies about whether lower preferences (transfers) influence STV election outcomes remain scant. To address this gap, our comparative multivariate approach tests transfers' impact on election results in Ireland, Malta, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. We find that, on average, transfers are pivotal in the election of about one in 10 elected candidates. Hence, their impact is the exception rather than the norm. We show that when lower preferences are decisive at the candidate level, they benefit smaller and moderate parties and non-incumbents and, in Malta and Ireland, female candidates. Our results have implications for understanding the extent to which multiple preferences influence election outcomes and for debates on electoral reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Legislative oversight allows Congress to investigate potential wrongdoing by executive branch actors. We present a model in which an incumbent exercises oversight and chooses to take corrective action against the executive before going up for reelection. We show that partisan types who prefer to take corrective action regardless of the probability of wrongdoing will always conduct oversight, but sincere types who only want to correct legitimate wrongdoing will exercise restraint to avoid appearing too partisan and losing reelection. The model also shows that oversight is increasing in the probability that the incumbent is partisan and the probability that the challenger is sincere. Finally, we present two case studies, the Elián González custody case and the attack on the Benghazi embassy, to illustrate our theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]