1. Comparing Recurrence Rates and the Cost-Effectiveness of Arthroscopic Labral Repair and Nonoperative Management for Primary Anterior Shoulder Dislocations in Young Patients: A Decision-Analytic Markov Model-Based Analysis.
- Author
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Oeding JF, Schulz WR, Wang AS, Krych AJ, Taylor DC, Samuelsson K, Camp CL, and Tagliero AJ
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Humans, Young Adult, Joint Instability surgery, Joint Instability economics, Joint Instability therapy, Markov Chains, Monte Carlo Method, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Recurrence, Arthroscopy economics, Decision Support Techniques, Shoulder Dislocation surgery, Shoulder Dislocation therapy, Shoulder Dislocation economics, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
- Abstract
Background: Value-based decision-making regarding nonoperative management versus early surgical stabilization for first-time anterior shoulder instability (ASI) events remains understudied., Purpose: To perform (1) a systematic review of the current literature and (2) a Markov model-based cost-effectiveness analysis comparing an initial trial of nonoperative management to arthroscopic Bankart repair (ABR) for first-time ASI., Study Design: Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 3., Methods: A Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic model was developed to evaluate the outcomes and costs of 1000 simulated patients (mean age, 20 years; range, 12-26 years) with first-time ASI undergoing nonoperative management versus ABR. Utility values, recurrence rates, and transition probabilities were derived from the published literature. Costs were determined based on the typical patient undergoing each treatment strategy at the authors' institution. Outcome measures included costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)., Results: The Markov model with Monte Carlo microsimulation demonstrated mean (± standard deviation) 10-year costs for nonoperative management and ABR of $38,649 ± $10,521 and $43,052 ± $9352, respectively. Total QALYs acquired over the 10-year time horizon were 7.67 ± 0.43 and 8.44 ± 0.46 for nonoperative management and ABR, respectively. The ICER comparing ABR with nonoperative management was found to be just $5725/QALY, which falls substantially below the $50,000 willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. The mean numbers of recurrences were 2.55 ± 0.31 and 1.17 ± 0.18 for patients initially assigned to the nonoperative and ABR treatment groups, respectively. Of 1000 samples run over 1000 trials, ABR was the optimal strategy in 98.7% of cases, with nonoperative management the optimal strategy in 1.3% of cases., Conclusion: ABR reduces the risk for recurrent dislocations and is more cost-effective despite higher upfront costs when compared with nonoperative management for first-time ASI in the young patient. While all these factors are important to consider in surgical decision-making, ultimate treatment decisions should be made on an individual basis and occur through a shared decision-making process., Competing Interests: One or more of the authors has declared the following potential conflict of interest or source of funding: J.F.O. has received consulting fees from Kaliber.ai. A.J.K. has received research support from Aesculap/B.Braun and DJO; consulting fees from Arthrex, Joint Restoration Foundation, and Responsive Arthroscopy; royalties from Arthrex and Responsive Arthroscopy; and honoraria from Joint Restoration Foundation. D.C.T. has received financial or material support from Arthrex, Breg, DJOrtho, Mitek, and Smith & Nephew; and royalties from DePuy. C.L.C. has received consulting fees from Arthrex and research support from Major League Baseball. A.J.T. has received hospitality payments from Stryker, Arthrex, Medical Device Business Services, and Zimmer Biomet Holdings. AOSSM checks author disclosures against the Open Payments Database (OPD). AOSSM has not conducted an independent investigation on the OPD and disclaims any liability or responsibility relating thereto.
- Published
- 2024
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